The Candidates
On the heels of that Rasmussen poll that made waves yesterday (showing Hillary’s lead shrinking from 15 to 13, to 10, and now to 5 points) come several more polls showing similar movement in Obama’s favor.
Survey USA released a poll showing Clinton’s lead shrinking from a huge 19 points down to 12; likewise, Quinnipiac shows Clinton’s lead dwindling from 16 to 12 to now 9 points according to their new poll.
Even more shocking is the new Public Policy Polling release (PDF warning) showing Hillary losing her 26 point lead of two weeks ago — and now trails Obama by two points, 45-43!
It appears that this is not just statistical noise; the RCP average which stood at a 16 point advantage for Hillary just yesterday morning is now down to a 6 point Clinton lead.
Every potential comeback scenario for Hillary begins with a big win in Pennsylvania - at least by 10 points. A closer-than-expected win, or even a loss, will spell the end of her campaign (though she will most likely [and hopefully, for our sakes] continue fighting until at least June).
April 2nd, 2008 at 9:59 am
From what I see next from Ohio, I find it hard to believe that Mr. Obama will actual win PA. However, it could be close enough to effectively finish Mrs. Clinton. She need at least a 15 to 20 point spread. 10 points is not enough.
April 2nd, 2008 at 10:22 am
This is exactly what we heard about Ohio and Texas. The lead was shrinking and shrinking. It was going to effectively end her campaign. It turned out she won much bigger than expected. I do agree with Ohio Joe however. I think her margin will only be 10 points, but I do think that’s enough for her to go on.
April 2nd, 2008 at 11:13 am
It will be enough for her to go on, but not enough to change the dynamics of the race enough.
April 2nd, 2008 at 11:20 am
And following what OJ is saying, Hillary needs to change the dynamics of the race in order to have a chance. Her campaign is already in debt and pretty much funnelling all their available cash towards TV spots. Hillary needs a blowout win to jumpstart her fundraising; she probably won’t have enough money to run an effective campaign in Indiana (also an absolute must win) or North Carolina if she only wins Pennsylvania by 10 points
April 2nd, 2008 at 6:19 pm
the polls reflect his overwhelming ad campaign, but just like ohio, she will have a solid win in actual votes.
April 3rd, 2008 at 12:01 am
Nooooo! Hillary, win one for the Gipper.
She needs more than 10% I’m afraid. Obama needs to be below 45% for her win to look impressive. She needs to be above 55%. 57% - 43% is about the minimum she needs to really jumpstart things.
April 3rd, 2008 at 4:07 pm
[...] these polls and the other ones we highlighted here at R4′08 yesterday, CQ now says “It’s a Race in Pennsylvania“. by Matt C @ 4:07 pm. Filed under [...]