GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
Yesterday, I asked you to rate how content you’d be if Rudy Giuliani, Colin Powell, Donald Carcieri, or Bill Owens were selected as John McCain’s running mate. I put the data in the spreadsheet, and came up with a few handy numbers. They’re listed below.
Note: I continue to include Standard Deviation, despite commenter IllinoisGuy’s protests. Not because I necessarily contest his points; I’m sure he knows more about statistics then I do. But, I’m trying to keep an absolute consistency from poll to poll in terms of phrasing, data, etc.
Rudy Giuliani:
Mean (Average): 5.48
Mode (Most Frequently Occuring Number): 1, 10
Median: 5
STD (Standard Deviation): 3.29
Colin Powell:
Mean (Average): 4.52
Mode (Most Frequently Occuring Number): 1, 4
Median: 4
STD (Standard Deviation): 2.59
Donald Carcieri:
Mean (Average): 5.05
Mode (Most Frequently Occuring Number): 5
Median: 5
STD (Standard Deviation): 2.45
Bill Owens:
Mean (Average): 4.87
Mode (Most Frequently Occuring Number): 4, 5
Median: 5
STD (Standard Deviation): 2.07
Interpretation: I’m no statistician, but I have a decent sense for what these particular numbers (mean, mode, median, and Standard Deviation) indicate. So here are my (fairly obvious) interpretations:
Rudy Giuliani: Many Race42008′ers would be fairly contented with him, but there is significant difference of opinion; there are a great many that love him, and many that dislike him, and there’s a roughly even distribution between the top half (like) and the lower half (dislike).
Colin Powell: Many Race42008′ers would be somewhat discontented with him, but there is some difference of opinion; there are a few that love him, and many that dislike him, and most respondents fall towards the lower end of the spectrum (dislike).
Donald Carcieri: Many Race42008′ers would be reasonably contented with him, but there is some difference of opinion; a few love him, and a few dislike him, and there’s a roughly even distribution between the top half (like) and the lower half (dislike).
Bill Owens: Many Race42008′ers would be mildly discontented with him and there is very little difference of opinion; there are few that love him, and few that dislike him, and there’s a roughly even distribution between the top half (like) and the lower half (dislike).
Current Total Standings:
1. Mark Sanford: 6.53
2. Tim Pawlenty: 5.88
3. Mitt Romney: 5.64
4. Rudy Giuliani: 5.48
5. Chris Cox: 5.10
6. Donald Carcieri: 5.05
7. Condoleeza Rice: 4.91
8. Bill Owens: 4.87
9. Colin Powell: 4.52
10. Frank Keating: 4.44
11. Tom Ridge: 4.16
12. Joe Lieberman: 2.69
April 10th, 2008 at 9:22 am
It’s interesting to see how the viewers of this site are trending. Very interesting indeed. Great job keeping up on all this!
April 10th, 2008 at 9:46 am
“Results” shouldn’t have an apostrophe.
April 10th, 2008 at 10:04 am
I always abbreviate Standard Deviation as StDev to differentiate from the venereal desease moniker.
April 10th, 2008 at 11:44 am
Looks like Tim Pawlenty is doing pretty well, and being close to the camapaign team here in Florida, i think that McCain will definitely pick Pawlenty for his VP, and its a very good pick IMO.
McCain/Pawlenty 08
April 10th, 2008 at 1:02 pm
Interesting how the top 3 are all Governors. It’s a testament to McCain’s weakness; managing an economy.
April 10th, 2008 at 2:32 pm
The results are quite interesting. Keep it up.
April 10th, 2008 at 3:44 pm
Why would he pick Pawlenty? The polls show him giving McCain a 6% net drag in his home state of Minnesoata. I don’t think we need help like that.
April 10th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
IllinoisGuy,
What kind of net-drag would Romney provide in his home state? -37? And remember, polls have shown McCain competitive in Mass if Obama’s the nominee.
April 10th, 2008 at 8:57 pm
On #5. Picking a Governor is smart to avoid McCain being labeled as a third bush term. that’s the big issue in this election. before iraq, before the economy. people don’t want bush and mccain has to pass the threshold of not being a third bush term.
April 11th, 2008 at 12:23 am
Interestingly, I liked Bill Owens best of yesterday’s choices, and my favorite number is 487. It’s a sign. (I’m not joking about the number… 487 is literally my favorite number. My very favorite. I look for it everywhere.)
April 11th, 2008 at 8:06 am
#8 - Oh, are we going to win Mass? Let’s say its in contention. With no campaigning whatsoever in Mass, and John McCain camping out there the last few days before the primary, Mitt still won it by as much as McCain won Arizona, and Mitt didn’t spend a minute in Az nor did he spend a dime there. I would have to say that the 50% that preferred Mitt over McCain in Mass would add at least as much as the crossover votes McCain might lose if Mitt were on the ticket. You avoided the point. Minnesota certainly is, unlike Mass, in play, and actual polls, not your guesses nor mine have confirmed that Pawlenty would drag down McCain in Pawlenty’s home state. Mitt proved himself to be Much, much stronger amongst the part faithful in Minnesota, and the are the ones who work their tails off, pay money, GOTV, and pray the hardest. Let’s let them do their thing by putting someone who has gained their true respect.
Mitt will help in many, many states: Washington, Oregon, Nv, Colorado, Montana, Mn, NH, Va, Michigan, and I believe Iowa. Why Iowa? Mitt got 30% of the Iowa vote, and was by far the second choice for Huckabee’s 39%. Compare that to Mcain’s 4th place 13%, and tell me that won’t help him in Iowa. I think he helps in Ohio, but that one could be argued. I honestly don’t think he hurts the ticket anywhere.
April 11th, 2008 at 8:08 am
#8 - there was a poll posted on here that showed Pawlenty a 6% net drag in Minnesota.