In a 3-day tracking poll, after four straight days of a candidate receiving the same number, you can begin to deduce what his day-to-day poll numbers are. Around the beginning of the month in the Gallup poll, Obama logged six straight 49s, so we can guess that either he was trading identical hi-los, or he was logging straight 49s. Since Hillary’s numbers were more-or-less unchanged, I’m going to go with the latter.

Since April 6, his numbers have done this: 52, 51, 51, 50, 51, 49. Assuming that he had straight 49s, his day-to-day numbers would have been on the order of 58, 46, 49, 55, 49, 43 (still not precise, because we don’t really know for sure what the previous values were, and they round numbers). Indeed Gallup reports that “Obama’s lead is substantially narrower in the two most recent days of interviews, however, suggesting the race could tighten in the coming days.”

Yeah, I think Bittergate might have taken a toll.