Sean,
Is Rasmussen using a rolling polling methodology with this survey? If so, this can’t dismissed as outlying. In summary, Dems are screwed this year.
Obama just picked up 3 more major endorsements, and there’s no way Hillary can catch up in either votes cast or delegates. Frankly, I’d rather run against Obama anyway…it will become readily apparent that he doesn’t have the right stuff during the general.
Come on Hil! Just a +12 in PA. That’s all I ask. You’re a good closer, surely you can manage something so meager after the disastrous few weeks Obama has had.
At this point, I’m willing to say that anything better then +10 is good for us. Obama’s shown a surprising tendency to close in the last few states, and was only stopped in Ohio and Texas due to NAFTAgate, and now due to Bittergate and Wrightgate. Alot of this has to do with his huge money advantage, but that’s not going to go anytime soon. In the ordinary course of things, barring big controversies, Obama will probably close 2-3 points a week on Hillary in the remaining states. With momentum, Hillary can negate this a bit; she can move ahead 5-10 points, and then she’ll end up where she started when Obama uses his money advantage to drown her. Without much momentum coming out of PA, she’s bound to be absolutely shellacked in NC and may not hold on in Indiana.
Obama will probably be nominated, unless the remaining superdelegates have the guts to go with Hillary. I know November is a long way off, but I cannot see Obama defeating McCain. I am a democrat who cannot in good conscience vote for Obama. I feel if people could vote again … they might change their vote to Senator Clinton.
Saw Obama in person today, about 50 feet away at a rally. Only voted twice in my life, both times Republican. All I can say is he is a far cry above Hillary. If McCain has to be in a fight and loses, I will stomach him a lot easier than another Clinton term and another divided politics of 4 more years. I believe McCain can do the same, Hillary can’t.
But an Obama Presidency stands a good chance of severely crippling the country. If Hillary were to win, she would govern as a moderate, especially since the left wing activist base has basically disowned her. She is concerned first and foremost with her own power, I doubt she would overreach.
I’m terrified of Obama as President with the likely 55-56 Democratic senators.
An Obama presidency will be almost an exact replica (but from the left) of a Bush presidency. Don’t kid yourself. Study elections. Study what has traditionally made government work. Obama will probably be marginally less divisive then Hillary during the 2008 campaign, but he’ll be leagues more divisive as president. He’s been an inept legislator, with inane ideas about how one brings about change. He’s plan is essentially to listen to Republican ideas, say “I understand and respect your viewpoint, but on the other hand, let’s stop all these distractions that divide us, and do things my way instead”. It’s a sleight of hand idiocy that plays well with the yute, but is almost guaranteed to be a colossal failure in practice. We’ll end up with gridlock, as folks like Obama’s good friend Tom Coburm (aka, a Weather Man underground terrorist) turn out to be remarkably impervious to Obama’s jedi mind tricks. And we’ll end up with a nuclear Iran, an increasingly belligerent Venuezuela and North Korea, and a China which has decided to assert it’s power in the face of a weakened America. Barry will find out that Ahmadinejad, Chavez, and Kim have never even seen Star Wars. No, if we must have a Democrat, I pray for Hillary Clinton; she understands how the world works, has a demonstrated record of accomplishment, and will, oddly enough, be able to bridge some divides after limping into office. An Obama presidency would simply rip this country assunder, in terms of policies and divisiveness.
April 19th, 2008 at 12:46 pm
Oh wow, Hillary’s back on top (in Rasmussen at least)!
April 19th, 2008 at 12:49 pm
Sean,
Is Rasmussen using a rolling polling methodology with this survey? If so, this can’t dismissed as outlying. In summary, Dems are screwed this year.
April 19th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
Obama just picked up 3 more major endorsements, and there’s no way Hillary can catch up in either votes cast or delegates. Frankly, I’d rather run against Obama anyway…it will become readily apparent that he doesn’t have the right stuff during the general.
April 19th, 2008 at 12:56 pm
i want to run against obama too, but i want it to be prolonged until august
April 19th, 2008 at 1:28 pm
Holy Crap: http://www.patrickruffini.com/2008/04/18/the-gop-and-the-six-million/
Paulites have gotten themselves so many delegate seats they could loudly boo pro-war speeches at our convention.
April 19th, 2008 at 1:33 pm
I noticed that yesterday. Obama may complain about it all he wants, but he debated awfully.
April 19th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
BK — this is gallup. In Rasmussen, he leads by two (down from seven on the eve of the debate).
Zogby also shows Hill’s lead expanding in its PA tracking poll. Not that I particularly trust Zogby.
April 19th, 2008 at 1:49 pm
Come on Hil! Just a +12 in PA. That’s all I ask. You’re a good closer, surely you can manage something so meager after the disastrous few weeks Obama has had.
April 19th, 2008 at 1:50 pm
I’m gonna say that the SUSA poll that’ll likely come out monday or tuesday will have her up around 16, maybe more.
April 19th, 2008 at 1:55 pm
At this point, I’m willing to say that anything better then +10 is good for us. Obama’s shown a surprising tendency to close in the last few states, and was only stopped in Ohio and Texas due to NAFTAgate, and now due to Bittergate and Wrightgate. Alot of this has to do with his huge money advantage, but that’s not going to go anytime soon. In the ordinary course of things, barring big controversies, Obama will probably close 2-3 points a week on Hillary in the remaining states. With momentum, Hillary can negate this a bit; she can move ahead 5-10 points, and then she’ll end up where she started when Obama uses his money advantage to drown her. Without much momentum coming out of PA, she’s bound to be absolutely shellacked in NC and may not hold on in Indiana.
April 19th, 2008 at 5:50 pm
I still think HRC is going to eke out a win in this thing. If the Dems nominate Obama, they deserve to lose. I think the guy is totally unelectable.
On the other hand, McCain better sharpen up. It doesn’t do any good to have him confusing Sunnis and Shia.
April 19th, 2008 at 9:21 pm
Obama will probably be nominated, unless the remaining superdelegates have the guts to go with Hillary. I know November is a long way off, but I cannot see Obama defeating McCain. I am a democrat who cannot in good conscience vote for Obama. I feel if people could vote again … they might change their vote to Senator Clinton.
April 19th, 2008 at 11:40 pm
Saw Obama in person today, about 50 feet away at a rally. Only voted twice in my life, both times Republican. All I can say is he is a far cry above Hillary. If McCain has to be in a fight and loses, I will stomach him a lot easier than another Clinton term and another divided politics of 4 more years. I believe McCain can do the same, Hillary can’t.
April 20th, 2008 at 1:04 am
Steve,
But an Obama Presidency stands a good chance of severely crippling the country. If Hillary were to win, she would govern as a moderate, especially since the left wing activist base has basically disowned her. She is concerned first and foremost with her own power, I doubt she would overreach.
I’m terrified of Obama as President with the likely 55-56 Democratic senators.
April 20th, 2008 at 7:36 am
Steve,
An Obama presidency will be almost an exact replica (but from the left) of a Bush presidency. Don’t kid yourself. Study elections. Study what has traditionally made government work. Obama will probably be marginally less divisive then Hillary during the 2008 campaign, but he’ll be leagues more divisive as president. He’s been an inept legislator, with inane ideas about how one brings about change. He’s plan is essentially to listen to Republican ideas, say “I understand and respect your viewpoint, but on the other hand, let’s stop all these distractions that divide us, and do things my way instead”. It’s a sleight of hand idiocy that plays well with the yute, but is almost guaranteed to be a colossal failure in practice. We’ll end up with gridlock, as folks like Obama’s good friend Tom Coburm (aka, a Weather Man underground terrorist) turn out to be remarkably impervious to Obama’s jedi mind tricks. And we’ll end up with a nuclear Iran, an increasingly belligerent Venuezuela and North Korea, and a China which has decided to assert it’s power in the face of a weakened America. Barry will find out that Ahmadinejad, Chavez, and Kim have never even seen Star Wars. No, if we must have a Democrat, I pray for Hillary Clinton; she understands how the world works, has a demonstrated record of accomplishment, and will, oddly enough, be able to bridge some divides after limping into office. An Obama presidency would simply rip this country assunder, in terms of policies and divisiveness.