The Candidates
The final SurveyUSA poll (who has nailed the final results in more primaries than I care to count) has Hillary’s lead whittled down to six. Still, one notes that only one polling outfit shows Obama ever eclipsing 44% of the vote, and that is the only polling outfit that shows Obama with a lead of any kind (PPP).
I think she might fall just shy of the double-digit lead she needs, maybe more around 8 or 9 points. We shall see . . .
April 21st, 2008 at 10:34 am
Sean,
Do you remember how close SurveyUSA came in calling Texas and Ohio?
April 21st, 2008 at 10:40 am
No I think I stopped poll watching for a while shortly after Romney got out.
April 21st, 2008 at 10:40 am
TX: SUSA = Obama +1, Actual = Clinton +3.5
OH: SUSA = Clinton +10, Actual = Clinton +10.1
Part of the problem in TX is that, unlike CA (Which they also nailed), they weren’t polling in Spanish.
April 21st, 2008 at 10:41 am
Sean [no last name], we are going to have to get you a new handle.
April 21st, 2008 at 10:44 am
There’s actually other remarkably similar PA polls out today as well:
SUSA: Hillary 50 - Obama 44
Rasmussen: Hillary 49 - Obama 44
Zogby: Hillary 48 - Obama 42
Q-Poll: Hillary 51 - Obama 44
Suffolk: Hillary 52 - Obama 42
ARG*: Hillary 54 - Obama 41
Come on, Hillary! A 6 point win isn’t good enough. You need at least 10.
April 21st, 2008 at 11:01 am
Drudge Report says Clinton internal polling shows an 11-point lead.
http://www.drudgereport.com/flashpa.htm
April 21st, 2008 at 11:05 am
Adam, looks to me like the Clinton camp is leaking to Drudge for leverage again (developing…).
April 21st, 2008 at 11:23 am
Cinton has already said she’s going to the convetion, regardless of anything.
She’s not dropping out, but she can’t really win.
All she can do is tear down Obama in the states he’ll need in Nov. Which she’s done and which helps us.
Her ad today used pictures of Osama and basically called Obama a pu**y and a wimp.
There’s plenty more where that came from.
I say she wins with at least 10, but less than 15.
April 21st, 2008 at 11:47 am
Jim’s right. For Hillary to actually win the nomination, she needs to get 60% of the remaining delegates available from here on out. Whether she can do that in Pennsylvania or not is not really the question, since there are states coming up like North Carolina where she is likely to lose by more than she wins Pennsylvania by in any case. She needs to average 60%, and there’s no way for her to do that. She is rendering Obama unelectable, and performing a major service to the country in so doing.
April 21st, 2008 at 11:51 am
Hillary’s campaign is basically broke. If she doesn’t win PA by at least 15 points, I don’t see her raising enough money to put up an effective challenge in Indiana, and she has no chance of winning Indiana if she doesn’t campaign as hard there as she did here. Indiana’s demographics don’t favor Hillary as much as PA does, and Obama is unlikely to make another stupid “bitter” comment this time around.
And if she doesn’t win Indiana her campaign WILL be over. It might not be “Romney Over” (ie: a formal dropping out and endorsement of the winner) , but it will be “Huckabee Over” (ie: a once formidable campaign reduced to a late night TV laughingstock). Even if she soldiers on, she won’t have enough money to actively campaign in Kentucky or West Virginia. And even if she wins there anyway without running a single ad, she won’t be able to put up the big 2-1 margins she needs to have a chance in eclipsing Obama in the popular vote, which is the once chance she has of getting superdelegates to break for her.
April 21st, 2008 at 11:53 am
The problem with trying to pick Clinton’s margin is that the margins and the final polls have been very inconsistant. For instance, Clinton was winning barely in Ohio polls and won by 10, while in Virginia she was closing the gap in the polls but lost by roughly 18. She has either performed twice as well as predicted or twice as worse.
April 21st, 2008 at 11:54 am
Every candidate who has thus far dropped out (both D and R)has sworn they were “going all the way” and “in it to win it.” That means nothing.
PPP has been the most accurate for the primaries - I believe they were the only polling outfit to get Wisconsin correct. Their poll from last night has Obama up 49-46. Their sample size was over 2200 and their MoE was around +/-2%. Interesting.
FWIW, the Clinton campaign has denied that the poll Drudge references exists.
April 21st, 2008 at 12:38 pm
Ehh PPP had Romney up + 1 the weekend before the GA primary and he ended up third. However if you had told someone at this point last year that Mitt Romney would come in third in GA with 30% of the vote I bet most people would have looked at you funny.