GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
Drudge is breaking early exits showing Hillary ahead 52-48.
Of course, the last set of early exits had Obama up 2 in Ohio, Hillary up 2 in Texas, up 3 in Rhode Island, and down 2-1 in VT.
So that’s why they count the votes.
April 22nd, 2008 at 4:47 pm
Hopefully the blue-collar base hasn’t voted yet. She seems to have done better then the exit polls would’ve indicated in the past for whatever reason, but a 4 point victory is curtains for her. Crank it up to 10 Rendell machine. If not, your gal is going home. Well, going home sooner anyway.
April 22nd, 2008 at 4:54 pm
If I recall correctly, the exit polling was horrible in NH. I think it showed Obama had won big.
April 22nd, 2008 at 4:58 pm
I don’t expect these to hold up, but great if they do. I say it time and again, if Republicans have no more confidence in McCain then having to have Hillary and Obama drag this out, then they have a problem. Winners don’t slack from the competition but say, “Bring it on.” The sooner Hillary is out the better, IMO. And I am not a big supporter of either Obama or McCain, just someone that wants the dynasties to end.
April 22nd, 2008 at 4:59 pm
Why is exit polling so terrible this season? Is it just because we’re dealing with primaries as compared to a general election?
Actually, I remember when the exit polls leaked to Drudge from the 2004 election. All signs pointed to President-Elect Kerry at that point. I was terrified and largely ignored my law school classes that day (well, and every other day, but at least that day I had an excuse). I no longer trust exit polls (yet I seek them out all the same…irony?).
April 22nd, 2008 at 5:00 pm
I’d feel reasonably confident about Matthew’s prediction. My fiancee went home around noon today to Mifflin County to vote and she was only number 118 (124 total) to vote in her precinct (yes, I am engaged to a dirty liberal
). Her area is definitely a blue collar town based upon Standard Steel, so it wouldn’t shock me to see all the blue collar workers coming in after 5.
April 22nd, 2008 at 5:05 pm
[...] Race42008 also urges caution. [...]
April 22nd, 2008 at 5:39 pm
Steve, if your two opponents are taking each other on, there’s no reason for you to want it to end.
It’s like the Iran-Iraq war, or the fighting on the Eastern Front in WW2. Sure, we could have taken on the Germans by ourselves, but if them and the Russians were grinding each other down, so much the better.
Also, Hillary is going home regardless. She’ll be behind by at least 140 delegates come June 4th and will need 90% of the Super Delegates to break for her. All she can do now is help McCain by beating up on Obama. The longer she does that the better,
April 22nd, 2008 at 5:42 pm
CNN’s exit polls are very positive for Clinton:
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/
April 22nd, 2008 at 5:46 pm
McCain and Clinton both underperformed their respective rivals so far.
April 22nd, 2008 at 5:51 pm
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/04/22/early-exit-polling-appears-to-give-clinton-edge-in-pennsylvania/
Fox news too. Seems Hillary pulling away as the after five voter hands to the polls.
April 22nd, 2008 at 5:55 pm
Again, just look at the delegate math since 3/3:
(For Hillary)
RI +5
VT -3
OH +7
TX -5
WY -2
MS -5
IA-10(due to conventions in March)
So from then to now she’s lost a net 13 delegates
At most, even after a double digit win, she’ll have made up no ground in 2 months with big wins in key states.
This doesn’t include NC, OR, MT and SD where she’s going to get blown out.
The bottom line reamins that all she can really do now is hope Obamas implodes with a Hart level scandal. And in that case she’d be the nominee even if she had dropped out. All staying in really does is improve McCain’s chances, which is what her and Bill really want anyway.
April 22nd, 2008 at 5:57 pm
I am going to start a PA results open thread at 6pm. Head on over there in a few minutes. Thanks!
April 22nd, 2008 at 5:58 pm
If Hil won college educated voters 54-46, she absolutely shellacked Barack. As we’ve noted before, Ohio is the closest demographic analogue to Pennsylvania; in Ohio she lost college educated voters by 4%. She won non college educated voters by 18%. And given bittergate, you’d expect there to be a greater swing of non-college educated voters to Hil. +8 in the college educated demographic is just shocking.
April 22nd, 2008 at 5:59 pm
This delegate allocation is bullshit. There is no way in hell that Clinton should have netted fewer delegates in Ohio than the Obamessiah got from Idaho. There is no way in hell that she should have gotten fewer delegates in Texas despite winning the popular vote by four points.
If I was a Democrat and some rookie media-darling that didn’t pay his dues was beating my candidate by gaming sparsely-populated caucus states that he didn’t have a prayer of winning in the Fall, I’d be flipping mad.