GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Democratic Primary and Presidential Election
Among Registered Democrats
Who do you want to win the Democratic nomination for president?
- Hillary Clinton 44%
- Barack Obama 41%
Regardless of how you would vote, which Democratic candidate do you think has a better chance of beating John McCain in the general election in November?
- Hillary Clinton 48% (40%)
- Barack Obama 38% (44%)
(Asked of Clinton supporters) If Hillary Clinton doesn’t win the nomination, who would you rather have as the Democratic Party’s nominee?
- Al Gore 54%
- Barack Obama 31%
(Asked of Obama supporters) If Barack Obama doesn’t win the nomination, who would you rather have as the Democratic Party’s nominee?
- Al Gore 46%
- Hillary Clinton 44%
Results from the poll conducted March 18-19 are in parentheses.
Among Registered Voters
Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)
- John McCain 49% (52%) / 37% (33%) (+12%)
- Barack Obama 47% (54%) / 42% (33%) (+5%)
- Hillary Clinton 47% (45%) / 46% (51%) (+1%)
Results from the poll conducted February 19-20 are in parentheses.
Honest and Trustworthy? (Yes/No)
- John McCain 60% / 29% (+31%)
- Barack Obama 54% / 35% (19%)
- Hillary Clinton 46% / 47% (-1%)
Does Barack Obama’s relationship with Rev. Jeremiah Wright make you more or less likely to vote for him for president? (More likely / Less likely)
- Among Democrats: 16% / 36%
- Among Independents: 5% / 39%
- Among Whites: 10% / 48%
- Among Blacks: 21% / 18%
Do you believe Rev. Wright has damaged Barack Obama’s campaign? (Yes/No)
- Among Democrats: 64% / 31%
- Among Independents: 71% / 22%
- Among Whites: 74% / 21%
- Among Blacks: 43% / 54%
Do you believe Rev. Wright’s message is pro-American or is his message anti-American? (Pro-American / Anti-American)
- Among Democrats: 18% / 46%
- Among Independents: 12% / 42%
- Among Whites: 11% / 55%
- Among Blacks: 34% / 25%
Do you believe Rev. Wright is promoting a message of racial tolerance or is his message anti-white? (Racial tolerance / Anti-white)
- Among Democrats: 19% / 41%
- Among Independents: 14% / 42%
- Among Whites: 14% / 51%
- Among Blacks: 27% / 21%
General Election
- Hillary Clinton 45% (46%)
- John McCain 44% (43%)
- Among Republicans: McCain 88% (82%) ; Clinton 6% (13%)
- Among Democrats: Clinton 76% (75%) ; McCain 15% (15%)
- Among Independents: McCain 42% (47%) ; Clinton 38% (31%)
- John McCain 46% (44%)
- Barack Obama 43% (43%)
- Among Republicans: McCain 81% (82%) ; Obama 13% (11%)
- Among Democrats: Obama 67% (70%) ; McCain 22% (18%)
- Among Independents: McCain 47% (45%) ; Obama 37% (37%)
Results from the poll conducted March 18-19 are in parentheses.
- Barack Obama, President - Hillary Clinton, VP 47%
- John McCain, President - Mitt Romney, VP 41%
- Among Republicans: McCain-Romney 81% ; Obama-Clinton 12%
- Among Democrats: Obama-Clinton 75% ; McCain-Romney 14%
- Among Independents: Obama-Clinton 42% ; McCain-Romney 41%
Survey of 900 registered voters was conducted April 28-29. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.
April 30th, 2008 at 8:04 pm
I doubt it will be a Obama/Clinton or Clinton/Obama ticket.
April 30th, 2008 at 8:12 pm
#1, why do you think that? Just curious.
April 30th, 2008 at 8:29 pm
In the probable McCain vs. Obama matchup, Obama wins 13% of Republicans (not too terribly high historically), but McCain wins 22% of Democrats. To my mind, this suggests either a blowout (not reflected in this poll) or a realignment.
I think with an Obama nomination, there is the potential for a mass exodus of the socially conservative, working class Roosevelt Democrats, particularly in Appalachia and the Border States. If McCain plays his cards right, we could see a sizable chuck of voters infuse the Republican party with new life.
April 30th, 2008 at 8:29 pm
Sean can give his own reasons, but I also do not believe that we will see the two of them on the ticket. Here’s why:
Clinton isn’t a reasonable pick for Vice President. She is disliked by Independents, and would probably be a turn-off for many voters. She is the only candidate who I believe could really turn off voters, on either side. In addition, she is a poor pick for heir apparent, and brings little experience that Obama doesn’t have. If Obama is the nominee, he will have beaten Clinton fair and square, and there will be no reason to include her.
Obama, though he is a reasonable pick for VP from the heir apparent/gaining experience/attracting more voters aspect, I do not believe he is vice-presidential. I might be wrong, but I don’t believe Obama would be able to work under Clinton.
April 30th, 2008 at 8:36 pm
Its hard to see McCain attracting new social Conservatives. He opposed the FMA, and really hasn’t made abortion much of a priority.
As for a reallignment - I doubt it, at least not a lasting one. This election, which matches a moderate Republican with a young and Charismatic Democrat, may skew the map for this election, but there isn’t really any major issues or world events (ex. Great Depression, Cold War, Iran crisis, civil rights) that justify a major voter swap.
Thats not to say the DNC hasn’t damaged itself severely, but I don’t think this is really a “reallignment”
April 30th, 2008 at 9:03 pm
Am I getting this right? By adding Romney to the ticket, McCain LOSES 5 points?!
April 30th, 2008 at 9:13 pm
> “Clinton isn’t a reasonable pick for Vice President. She is disliked by Independents”
McCain-Obama straight up, McCain beats Obama by 10 among independents. McCain/Romney loses to Obama/Clinton by 1.
So either Clinton is quite popular among indies, or Romney is quite unpopular, or some combination of the two sufficient to account for 11 points (a pretty significant difference).
It’s only one poll and I’d like to see other VP match-ups, but this poll doesn’t make Romney look good. McCain/Romney loses 16 points among Democrats compared to McCain by himself, and only gains 1 point among Republicans.
April 30th, 2008 at 9:13 pm
act blog,
With Hillary on the ticket, she helps turn a three point defeat into a six point victory for Obama…that is, unless you attribute such a drastic swing to the drag Romney would be on McCain as his running mate.
April 30th, 2008 at 9:29 pm
There’s a 9 point swing away from McCain when he adds Romney to the ticket? Just shocking I say!
April 30th, 2008 at 9:32 pm
Oh, and adding Romney brings McCain from 81% of Republicans to an astonishing…81% of Republicans. Beeeautiful.
April 30th, 2008 at 9:36 pm
Act-blog,
“Clinton isn’t a reasonable pick for Vice President. She is disliked by Independents, and would probably be a turn-off for many voters. She is the only candidate who I believe could really turn off voters, on either side.”
And yet, when you add Romney and Clinton to the bottom of the ticket, McCain goes from +10 with independents, to -1. You can keep kidding yourself if you want to, but when Romney causes a net loss of 11 points among independents, when Barack puts Hillary friggin Clinton on the ticket, it’s simply laughable to suggest Mitt’s anything but a drag on the ticket. Hillary Clinton has something like a -25 favorability with independents. But, they’re still positively fleeing the Republican ticket when Romney’s added.
April 30th, 2008 at 9:39 pm
Wow! We have got to add Romney to the ticket, you guys!
April 30th, 2008 at 9:42 pm
Aron,
Hillary might plausibly be responsible for the 8% of Democrats that return to the fold, but it’s sheer lunacy to suggest that Hillary Clinton makes Barack Obama THAT much more popular among independents. McCain goes from +10 to -1. That’s all Romney. Which leads to believe that at least part of Obama’s gains, even among Democrats, with an Obama-Hillary ticket, are a result of Democrats fleeing at the thought of Romney.
April 30th, 2008 at 9:46 pm
The McCain/Obama race wouldn’t even be close if it weren’t for idiotic Republicans jumping ship to Obama for some unknown, irrational reason.
Clinton does better than Obama against McCain among both Democrats and Independents. That’s because the latter groups realize that Obama is to the left of Clinton, and thus a fair amount flock to McCain when Obama is leading the ticket. But leave it to Republicans to screw up a sure thing by giving Obama double-digit support in a matchup against McCain.
April 30th, 2008 at 10:00 pm
People its one poll showing a hypothetical McCain/Romney vs Obama/Clinton matchup.You people are already counting the chickens before the eggs hatch. Who’s to say if you inserted Pawlenty or some other person instead of Romney you wouldn’t get the same result?
April 30th, 2008 at 10:03 pm
Sean M,
Inserting Pawlenty would be a useless exercise. Polls of this nature are only meaningful if the voters have some sense of who the VP prospects are. Romney has universal name recognition. As do folks like Rudy, Huck, and Fred. You’d have to compare Mitt to them, to get some sense of what’s going on here. Pawlenty would elicit no meaningful polling responses.
April 30th, 2008 at 10:08 pm
Matthew,
My point is that it’s only 1 poll and we have folks already saying that Romney should not be on the ticket. I mean for one its Fox and how reliable are they? 6 points can easily be made up.
April 30th, 2008 at 10:13 pm
Romney Returns To New Hampshire
Former Candidate Downplays Talk Of Vice Presidential Nomination
http://www.wmur.com/politics/16091748/detail.html?rss=man&psp=news
April 30th, 2008 at 10:51 pm
I believe Hillary will win the Democrat nomination and beat McCain in the General. Therefore, who do we have that has a good shot at beating Hillary in ‘12? (given that McCain & Fred will be out)
April 30th, 2008 at 11:00 pm
Sean M: It is only one poll (a point I made in #7), however it is supported by numerous polls showing that Romney has very high unfavorables — therefore this poll does not stand alone.
The surprise to me (I expected Romney to hurt McCain among Independents) is that he has no offsetting support among Republicans.
April 30th, 2008 at 11:27 pm
“however it is supported by numerous polls showing that Romney has very high unfavorables”
Which can and do go down. Favorables/unfavorables always change.
April 30th, 2008 at 11:33 pm
Video: Rudy on Wright
http://www.foxnews.com/video2/video08.html?videoId=6e1b2f35-d928-4e18-9865-fa207e5ef2dc&sMPlaylistID=
April 30th, 2008 at 11:34 pm
Romney’s have been consistently bad.
April 30th, 2008 at 11:53 pm
That’s because people don’t really know him for the guy he is. The MSM and the other GOP candidates did a bang up job of making Mitt look bad.
April 30th, 2008 at 11:58 pm
You guys are not comparing apples to apples.
The McCain vs Obama is generic with some unknown as Obama’s running mate.
Obama doesn’t sound like he will put Hillary on the ticket with him, so most people are answering that poll as if it is someone else. The fact is nearly all of us on here fear either and Obama/Hillary or a Hillary/Obama ticket. Because nearly all of the ticked off voters are appeased.
I don’t believe it is the addition of Romney here that causes the problem, but the strength of the Obama/Clinton ticket.
Furthermore, its meaningless unless this is done by states to see the electoral impact. A national poll of this nature is meaningless.
May 1st, 2008 at 7:11 am
I have to agree with your logic on this Illiniosguy, this is only one poll, and it is unclear whether the effect is from Mr. Romney himself or another factor. You are also right that this poll does not examine each state individually. Perhaps other polls will show similar results, but this poll in and of it self does not mean much. We will need more polls to see what the true landscape is, but I still believe than overall, Mr. Romney does not add much to the ticket, but does not damage the ticket either. As polls come out and shifts the landscape, I could be wrong on either account.
May 1st, 2008 at 10:35 am
Sean M:
The Romney effect is real, and is one of the main reasos why I keep saying that he will likely not be the VP pick. Note the recent Rasmussen poll of New Hampshire (go to the bottom), where the same effect is seen among that state’s voters.
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_presidential_election2
Throughout the primaries, we saw Romney match up poorly against the Democrats as well. Outside of his base, nobody really likes the guy.
May 1st, 2008 at 10:44 am
#24: “The MSM and the other GOP candidates did a bang up job of making Mitt look bad.”
So what? His negatives are there regardless of how they got there, and why put a guy with such a negative image on the ticket?
#25: “I don’t believe it is the addition of Romney here that causes the problem, but the strength of the Obama/Clinton ticket.”
So you’re telling us that it isn’t that Romney is unpopular, it’s that Hillary is such a universally beloved figure? LOL. You’ll need to argue that point with Act-Blog, who started this off by saying, “Clinton isn’t a reasonable pick for Vice President. She is disliked by Independents…” If she’s disliked, then it follows that Romney must be detested, since adding the two of them to the respective tickets results in an eleven point net loss among independents.
“A national poll of this nature is meaningless.”
It’s hardly meaningless to lose nine points, unless there’s strong offsetting evidence of Romney strength in key states — which there isn’t.
May 1st, 2008 at 8:22 pm
“Outside of his base, nobody really likes the guy.”
Maybe his base is alot smarter than everyone else or we see something in him that others do not.
May 1st, 2008 at 8:56 pm
BobH - You don’t get it… Its true that Hillary has high unfavorables. I’ll grant you that. BUT NOT AMONGST HER OWN FOLLOWERS!! Her staunchest followers are those that are saying that like 20%+ of them will not vote for Obama if he gets the nomination. IF he puts her on the ticket, they are appeased, and the ticket is much stronger than before. We’ve said on here over and over that the two of them on one ticket is what we should fear most. Maybe not every agrees with this, but I believe most do. Now, why does it affect this poll so drastically? Because he has been sounding as if he probably will not pick her, so when her people are polled, many of them are going with McCain, or doing something else like sit home.
May 1st, 2008 at 9:05 pm
#27 - Your Rasmussen reference poll is sooooooooo misleading!
Here it is: “Thirty-one percent (31%) of New Hampshire voters say they’re more likely to vote for McCain if he selects Mitt Romney as his running mate. Thirty-nine percent (39%) are less likely to vote for McCain with Romney on the ticket.”
What this fails to do is differentiate as to whether or not these are even people who would even think about voting for McCain to begin with. Knowing what we know, we should look at this as a very positive thing for adding Mitt in New Hampshire! Guess what, the 31% that say they’re more likely to vote for McCain are those that really are considering doing so. They are turned on more because Mitt adds intelligence and conservative strength to the ticket. The 39% are not even thinking about voting for McCain in the beginning. They are a bunch of liberals who sure as heck don’t want to see a conservative added to the ticket (because they might win). And they are tickled to death to be asked to give their liberal opinions on the subject.
Guys, you’re gonna have to learn how to read the polls! Just who are these 31%???? and who are the 39%? Wake up, and quit acting like polls show something they don’t show.!
May 2nd, 2008 at 4:50 am
Good point Illinoisguy, but that could also be true when polling for other VP candidates.
May 2nd, 2008 at 6:34 am
Considering Obama’s inexperience, I don’t think he would be happy to have an experienced, strong, long term party loyalist looking over his shoulder - might make him look like a puppet. Michelle Obama already makes a lot of people wonder who calls Obama’s shots.
As far as Hillary is considered, I don’t think she would accept, even under pressure from the DNC. She owes them nothing at this point.
Given the opportunity to choose on his own, I would expect him to either make an utterly gratuitous choice, or an ill-advised one.
If he chooses a powerful, experienced capable candidate as a running mate, he runs the risk of being a puppet president, with a Cheney-esque VP. If he chooses a subservient running mate, which I expect to happen if his wife has any input, he will not win the general election.
He is the likely candidate for our party, but the fact remains, he is who he is - inexperienced, prone to gaffes, ethnocentric, naive about international politics, clueless about the workings of international economics. His appeal is that of a guru - not of a powerful statesperson, which is what everyone in this country needs. Obama needs a partner if he is in the White House, who can actually BE the president, while Obama makes speeches.
I hope Hillary doesn’t accept the position if its offered, and I seriously doubt she would accept it. Obama in the White House would be a disaster, and I’m sure she wouldn’t want to be any part of it.
May 2nd, 2008 at 3:17 pm
Ohio - I totally agree. Each of us need to look closely at what the true story is behind the figures. Personally, I think a 31% ‘more likely’ figure there is quite high considering the fact that we know darn well that most of the 39% weren’t even thinking about voting for McCain to begin with. The 31% are the Republicans voicing “You darn right I’ll be more likely to vote for McCain with Romney on the ticket. Think about it! 31% and 39% makes 70%. Were 70% in this poll saying they would vote for McCain? No way! The liberals were saying “Heck no, I wouldn’t be more likely to vote for McCain with Romney on the ticket, but thanks for asking!”