April 30, 2008
That Changing Electoral Map
Much has been made about how different the electoral map between McCain and Obama will look like as compared to the maps of 2000 and 2004. I decided to compare the numbers to see just how different the map actually looks at this stage in the game.
I took the margin of victory (or loss) of Bush against Kerry in 2004 for each state and subtracted the lead (or deficit) McCain has against Obama to see which states were trending redder or bluer. For example, Bush beat Kerry by 21 in Indiana in 2004, McCain currently has a lead of +2 in the poll averages; thus, IN is shown as -19 on the chart below. Likewise, Bush beat Kerry by 9 in Arkansas, McCain is leading by an average of 25 points there now; thus, AR is shown as +16.
On average, the electorate appears to be roughly 5 points further left for the ‘08 election than they were in 2004. Placing this data on a map of the United States, we can easily see how the two candidates are changing the electoral map for this election:
Clearly, Obama’s strength lies in his ability to turn flyover and western states bluer and running stronger than Kerry in the South, while at the same time taking the coveted states of MN, WI, OR, and WA further out of reach of the GOP. Obama’s strength in the typically dark red “Republican L” is stark.
Likewise, McCain’s advantage lies in his strength in typically blue Northeastern states and making MI and CA closer, while running stronger in the southwest than did Bush - and moving the trifecta of OH, PA, and FL further out of Dem reach.
By the time the dust settles in this contest, we may not recognize the electoral map.
(Of course, typical caveats apply: some of these numbers are based off of a single poll; this is still early in the contest with many undecideds in some states; the Democratic primary is not over yet; etc. However, this gives us a rough look at how the electorate is shifting in the run-up to the general election.)
http://race42008.com/2008/04/30/that-changing-electoral-map/trackback/
April 30th, 2008 at 4:03 pm
[...] C at Race42008 breaks down the changing electoral map that an Obama versus McCain match up would give us: Clearly, Obama’s [...]
April 30th, 2008 at 6:26 pm
This is an amazing diagram! If it is not too hard, could you do the same for Hillary/McCain head-up?
April 30th, 2008 at 6:31 pm
Oh yes, I wanted to say it’s scary to see what the Republican Party have done when its’ strudiest state (Utah) swinged the most. A swing of 33 points is every politician’s worse nightmare. At least, there are enough buff that Utah will remain in this Party’s favorite. But still, this should serve as a wake-up call for all Republican leaders, at both state and national levels! The Party needs to clean its action, including booting out the spend-craziers like my own state’s Mike Simpson!
April 30th, 2008 at 7:53 pm
The interesting thing is, if this came to pass, McCain would win the electoral college while losing the popular vote by several million.
April 30th, 2008 at 9:29 pm
Here’s what’s interesting. There are very few red states in which Obama overperforms Kerry that were close enough in 2004 for Obama to actually flip. Let’s say Obama flips all of the red states in which he overperforms Kerry that voted for Bush by 5 points or less. He’d pick up Iowa and Colorado and net 16 electoral votes.
Now let’s say McCain flips every state that Kerry won by 5 points or less in which McCain overperforms Bush from 2004. McCain would win Pennsylvania, Michigan, and New Hampshire. McCain would net 42 electoral votes. That would garner McCain an additional 26 electoral votes from 2004, leading to a McCain victory with 312 electoral votes.
Because Obama actually underperforms Kerry in the big red states that Democrats can actually win, like Ohio, Florida, and Missouri, McCain will be fine as long as he continues to run stronger than Bush in center-left Northern states like Pennsylvania and New Hampshire.
April 30th, 2008 at 11:48 pm
I honestly believe if McCain puts Mitt on the ticket, he will win an overwhelming victory. Can I prove it? No.
May 1st, 2008 at 7:23 am
Dave G:
If Mr. Obama wins Missori, Ohio and Flordia, PA cannot save Mr. McCain. PA could save Mr. McCain from losing the other three states against Mrs. Clinton. In either case, unless we persue a PA only strategy, I cannot see us winning PA while losing all other three. Being that Michigan is unpredictable, I can see a senario where PA and MI switch in both directions, but as nice as it is to win PA, we need to do much better against Mr. Obama in the Western half of the country before we can afford to lose Ohio, Missouri and Florida. We may be able to win without Ohio, the losing the other two to Mr. Obama is just a non-starter.
Sean Oxendine:
Yes, Mr. McCain can win the E.C. and lose the popular vote, but not by several million.
May 1st, 2008 at 9:57 am
The flaw in this is you are comparing results of an actual election to polls.
What if you found the last polls of Bush/Kerry and used that as a basis for comparison. I think those polls were to the left of the actual results and making this substitution will eliminate much of the “shift to the left”.
May 2nd, 2008 at 2:34 am
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