GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
Insider Advantage has Hillary up on Obama in NC, 44-42.
Prior to his appearance on FoxNews Network’s “Hannity & Colmes,” on which the poll was released, InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery noted: “The shift has come almost entirely from white voters age 45 and over. There was a small drift of African-Americans back towards Clinton, but not so significant as to establish any trend.
“I believe when all is said and done, Obama will likely carry North Carolina; or if he loses the race, it will be by just a few points.
“Our polling generally does not indicate the eventual compression of black voters that Obama usually enjoys just before Election Day. If that happens, my guess is that he will pull this out. However, this poll is clearly an indication of reaction to the latest statements by his former pastor; and it forces Sen. Obama to split resources between Indiana and North Carolina.
“If this white vote shift does not erode, given that North Carolina’s white Democratic voters are primarily in the Research Triangle, where education and personal finances are in the top tier for the nation, then I would say this suggests a major shift in all future primaries towards Clinton,” said Towery
IA’s final call in PA was Clinton +7, and in Texas was Clinton +5. This obviously isn’t their final call, but I’d pay attention.
April 30th, 2008 at 10:14 pm
I’m watching Hillary Clinton on O’Reilly right now. She sounds like a conservative. No, not a movement conservative, or a member of today’s conservative base of the Republican Party. But she sounds temperamentally conservative. You know, Bob Dole conservative. Conservative in the small-c sense of the word: skeptical, realistic, pragmatic, without a hint of idealism. She’s definitely putting all her chips on the right wing of the Democratic Party. If she wins the nomination, she’ll be deadly.
April 30th, 2008 at 10:16 pm
If Hillary wins North Carolina, then this is a whole new race, guys.
April 30th, 2008 at 10:24 pm
This is a junk poll. There is no way that the Democratic primary in NC will be only 25% black, it will be closer to 35% black. There is also no way that Barack Obama only gets 65% of the black vote.
April 30th, 2008 at 10:25 pm
Hmm. I’m hoping for Obama +3-5 in NC and Hillary +10 in IN. That probably doesn’t totally decimate Obama, but it ensures that the race goes all the way to the convention. No way do superdelegates stampede towards Obama after an abysmally poor finish in a state with 40% black Democratic primary voters unless Barry shows some ability to actually cut into the working class white demographic which he’s losing by increasingly embarrassing margins. Our best hope involves Obama getting the nomination, without actually moving past any of his primary problems. If he wins just 40% of the white vote in any remaining blue-collar state, the MSM will proclaim that he’s becoming a regular Joe Sixpack. They’re always eager to claim he’s “moved beyond” this or that problem.
Fortunately, he really has no opportunities to address his issues with working class voters after Indiana and North Carolina. Kentucky and West Virginia are total conversation stoppers, and even if he has a wonderful day or two, and losses both states by 20 instead of 35, he certainly won’t be able to claim any victory from such a large loss. And the remaining states simply don’t have sizeable white working class populations. If Obama performs poorly in these demographics in Indiana and North Carolina, he’s stuck, probably forever, with his elitist, latte sipping white base, and a ton of blacks, and pretty much no one else.
April 30th, 2008 at 10:44 pm
I’ve always been worried about Obama having a watershed moment. John McCain wins Florida, and thus shows he can win Republicans, and even conservatives, in a closed primary, in the South. JFK wins West Virginia in the primaries, and thus proves that he can win Protestants. Mitt Romney tanks in South Carolina, and subsequently tanks in additional Southern states.
There’s a sense in which these sorts of moments dovetail into lasting meta-narratives. Obama’s lost the white working class vote by increasingly large margins in about 42 straight states. This isn’t just a temporary problem. It’s every bit as lasting as Romney’s Mormon problem was. And if he goes into the general election without, narratively, showing he’s overcome it (by winning working class whites SOMEWHERE, or at least coming close) he really will, in all likelihood, be cut off from the demographic. A longer race gives him more chances to have a watershed moment, but the window is rapidly closing, and the current narrative is becoming increasingly firm.
April 30th, 2008 at 10:55 pm
Obama’s going to win this one. I just hope Hillary can get more than 45% of the vote.
April 30th, 2008 at 11:06 pm
Well i called this on election night of the penn. dem primary b/c i believe that NC is more like Tenn then it is to SC and Hillary won a close race in Tenn, and i predicted a 3 point win in North Carolina. Obama is hurt right now and the election is on Tuesday, and i doubt this whole Rev. Wright issue will be off the headlines by then, it may even be worse then it is now. So therefore i believe Hillary will win a close race and win by 8 in Indiana. Also i’m sure those Ad’s linking Obama to his pastor in NC arent helping his chances either, plus add the fact that the Gov. there endorsed Hillary, its just pretty safe to say that Hillary has ALL the momentum right now.
YES SHE CAN!! ALL THE WAY TO THE CONVENTION!!!
April 30th, 2008 at 11:08 pm
NC is an open primary right?
April 30th, 2008 at 11:27 pm
After watching Clinton on Fox, I would’ve so voted for her over Rudey 9iu11ani. Either way, like #7, there will be blood and McCain should make comback history.
April 30th, 2008 at 11:29 pm
The Edwards’s can tip this. They endorse Hillary and she wins the state. Period. And if she wins the state, she just, just might win the nomination. Which means that an Edwards endorsement might not be out of the realm of possibility. He almost certainly prefers her, but he’d like to back the winner, and he doesn’t want to be seen as merely pro-longing an inevitable Hillary death- he’s still young and wants a future in the party, and fatally damaging the Democratic nominee (which might happen if Edwards threw his weight behind Clinton) won’t get him one. But, if he can actually tip the scales, endorsing her makes alot of sense.
April 30th, 2008 at 11:33 pm
I’m starting to get nervous she’ll actually get the nomination. I’ve always been afraid of the Clintons and their political skills. I know she still has lower favorability ratings than Obama, but I’m worried about facing her in a general election.
April 30th, 2008 at 11:44 pm
take a look at this, from a weathermen victim:
http://city-journal.org/2008/eon0430jm.html
May 1st, 2008 at 12:01 am
Another poll, with the race in single digits. Obama 49%, Clinton 42%. What is going on? It will be amazing if Clinton can pull this off. It will prove Obama is completely unelectable and make the pathway to a Clinton nomination much easier.
May 1st, 2008 at 12:03 am
I forgot the link: http://www.wral.com/news/local/politics/story/2818209/
May 1st, 2008 at 6:28 am
Operation Chaos has been the wrong approach all along, and it is going yet to come back and haunt the Republicans. Can you say, Pres. Hillary Clinton? I sure hope not, but looking increasingly like a possibility. UggHHH! If NC is an open primary, Rush ought to be asking Repubs to get out and vote for Obama.
May 1st, 2008 at 10:38 am
matt #12. That is one great link. I hope Obama can pull this off, because
with stories like that, he is sunk.
May 1st, 2008 at 2:03 pm
undersampling of blacks. obama is gonna win nc. no doubt.