GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
Remember, for Hillary to pull out this nomination, she’s got to grab more than 65% of the remaining superdelegates, thanks to the ridiculous Democratic Party primary rules.
Today, the battle continues as Hillary picks up one superdelegate in the form of the head of the Connecticut AFL-CIO and four expected superdelegates from New York.
Barack Obama, meanwhile, added a Texas AFL-CIO official as well as three more from his home state of Illinois. Tit for tat.
Except for the one everyone is talking about: former DNC head Joe Andrews, who this morning announced he was switching from Hillary to Obama. The move has made waves as a high profile superdelegate switch and has pundits wondering anew if Hillary is in trouble, despite her recent strength in Indiana and North Carolina polls.
Politico has the running tally of superdelegates up to 264-249 in favor of Hillary, with just 230 left uncommitted. (One month ago, it stood at 250-216.)
May 1st, 2008 at 3:36 pm
I wonder if the supers are worried that Hillary is going take IN and be real close in NC. They may want to tip this thing over to Obama before Hillary gets too much MO and really makes a mess of the convention.
May 1st, 2008 at 4:03 pm
Obama is damaged goods for the general, and Hillary isn’t looking as bad to Democrats as a result….but that doesn’t mean that Obama doesn’t have the nomination sewn up….and it doesn’t mean that Obama is going to forgive and forget. There will be party purges, not unification. There is a stronger chance that Hillary will eventually endorse McCain than wind up on the ticket with Obama….although neither is likely.
May 1st, 2008 at 4:28 pm
Dave,
Hillary is NOT going to endorse McCain. Endorsing McCain would make having any real influence in her party very difficult, if not impossible. It would certainly put Senate Majority leader out of her reach, which isn’t that bad of a consolation prize. Endorsing McCain would be a very stupid thing to do, and we all know that Hillary is far from being stupid.
May 1st, 2008 at 5:14 pm
It’s actually way more than 65%. If you look at the #s, she’ll need closer to 90% of the remaining superdelegates.
If you project out the remaining primaries on a fairly favorable to Hillary basis and add her super delegates, she has around 1800 total delegates, give or take a few.
Obama will have around 1930 give or take a few.
There are 230 or so remaining Supers. Hillary will need 200+ of them to win, and Obama only needs less than 100.
When you factor in that the “mega” delegates like Pelosi, Gore, Carter, Brazille, Clyburn and a few others are with Obama, and factor in that Hillary needs something like 90% of the remaining superdelegates, or a massive defection from Obama, she has a miniscule chance at best.
She’ll go the convention, like Reagan did in 76, and she’ll lose at the convention, like Reagan did in 76.
May 1st, 2008 at 5:18 pm
marK,
I didn’t say it was likely. The point was that there’s virtually no way that Hillary will be on the same ticket. BTW, it is at least possible that Hillary would endorse McCain. When she loses the nomination battle she will be indignant, and Hell hath no fury like Hillary scorned. Also, it is known that she despises the far left wing of her party, which she will blame for her comeuppance.
May 1st, 2008 at 5:42 pm
Dave: She may be indignant enough to sit on the sidelines and offer Obama no support, even to work behind the scenes to undercut him. Either course of action will help defeat him, and give her another shot in 2012.
An endorsement of McCain means that she is through, finished — she will have joined the political choir invisible. She will never be indignant enough to destroy her chance at the presidency.
Odds that Hillary endorses McCain: 1 in 999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,etc
May 1st, 2008 at 9:24 pm
She won’t endorse McCain because it destroys her chance for the nomination in 2012. She’ll instead endorse Obama and do everything in her power to help him get drubbed by McCain without being obvious about it.