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9:08 — NC is narrowing. A 20-point Obama lead with 27% in. But his best counties are in . . . IN is staying at a 53-47 Hillary lead with 68% in.
8:55 — IN: Marion is 67% in, St. Joseph (South Bend) just came in and pushed Clinton’s margin’s down to 53-47.
NC: 21% in, Obama is up by 26 points. This could get ugly.
8:47 — Not too much has changed with 17% in, he’s up 26. 57% in, and he’s narrowed Indiana to 8. CNN is still not calling it, and there are still no results in from Gary. Indianapolis is mostly in, but Hamilton (which will have about half as many votes as Indy) is almost entirely out. The rural precincts are largely in.
8:31 — 50% in, and Hillary is holding on at 55-45 in Indiana. 14% in NC, and he’s still up 30%. But Orange, Durham, and Wake — his strongest, most populous counties — are pretty much all in.
8:23 — Obama might pull Indiana off. Elkhart county is a Northern tier county that demographically should have gone strongly for Clinton, but it went 59-41 for Obama. CBS is calling it for Clinton, but if its a 2-3 point win, Obama has effectively pulled it off.
8:20 — NC. Durham county is 2/3 in. As expected, he’s winning about 3 of every 4 votes cast. 10% in, it is 64-34.
8:10 — Turning to NC, 4% are in. He’s up 64-34. The precincts that are in are in counties where he’s largely expected to do well, so expect this to close.
8 — With 34% in, Hillary 57-43. 1/4 of Marion is in, and Obama/Clinton are holding steady at 60/40. But a lot of the rural counties are in, and the South Bend/Gary counties haven’t come in yet. I’m predicting this is her high water mark.
NC is currently a blowout for Obama, but that will probably narrow.
7:52 — Hmmmm…With 31% in, Hillary is still up 57-43. Hamilton and Lake are still out, and Marion is 15% in.
7:44 — This could be interesting. With 25% of the precincts counted, Hillary still has a 14-point lead. 82% of Allen county is in, and Obama’s lead there has been whittled to 54-46. Will Hillary hold on to a large lead after all? By the way, what is up with the “no preference” option in NC? How weird.
7:41 — 24% in, and it is still a 14-point Hillary lead. 11% of Marion county is in. Obama’s lead there is up to 60-40.
7:37 — 20% in, and Hillary is holding on at 58-42. 4% are in from Marion county though. Nothing from Lake or Hamilton counties.
7:33 — Wow. I find it hard to believe that Obama carried Western NC. But that’s what the exit polls are saying . . . White Democrats went 62-35 for Hillary, but AAs went 92-6 for Obama.
7:31 — Aaaaand NC is called for Obama. That was fast. Exit polls show about a 55-45 Obama win there. Which would be exactly what a certain blogger predicted . . .
7:26 — 16% in, and we’re getting the first Marion county results in. Obama leads 55-45.
7:22 — But remember, the City of Philly counted for about 20% of the PA vote. Indy is probably going to be a smaller chunk of Indiana.
7:15 — Howard county is back to 50-50. 10% are in, 58-42 Hillary. With 1/3 of Allen county in (Ft. Wayne), Obama is up 56-44 there, which is a bit better than my model predicted. Still nothing from Marion, Hamilton, or Lake.
7:13 — I have to wonder if the early poll close hurt Hillary. We’ve seen in the past that the early exits favor Obama, then move to Clinton as lunchpail Democrats begin to vote after work. In IN, there is no voting after work.
7:09 — 6% in, and Hillary is clinging to a 59-41 lead. Sorry guys, but until some more returns come in from urban areas, I’m not going to have too much to report. I do think she will win IN, but I think it will be a lot closer than she hoped.
7:02 — The full Democratic exit poll is in for CNN. Projects a very narrow Clinton win.
6:59 — With 4% in, she’s ahead 58-42. Still no call. Allen county (Ft. Wayne) is going 55-45 for him, which is better than it should be. They’re about even in Boone county, which is about right. Right now Howard is 73-27 for Obama, but I don’t expect that to last.
6:53 — Things are going well for her in the counties bordering Indianapolis to the east for Hillary.
6:48 — 3% in. Back up to 61-39. Still no urban counties.
6:45 — 2% in (and slowly growing). 60-40 Clinton. There’s still a lot of rural counties out, but the urban counties haven’t started yet. Actually, all the Northwest counties along the Michigan-Indiana borders are pretty good indicators.
6:41 — We’ll see what happens in Lake, Hamilton and Marion, but I think we’re probably looking at a closer Hillary win than she wanted.
6:38 — 2% in, and she’s still up 61-49. Vigo county in the Southwest is one of the only ones that is almost entirely in. She’s up 59-41, which actually might be bad news (she should probably be up more on the order of 70-30) (looking closer at my map, I had it more 60-40, which is about right). Similarly, in Steuben in the NE (57% in), she should probably be up more than 57-43.
6:32 — 1% of the votes in. 61-39 Hillary. But still no call . . .
6:26 — Key IN counties are Hamilton and Marion (Indy burbs and city, respectively). Also, pay attention to Lake county. If Obama loses, it will be a long night for him. If he’s above 60%, it will be good stuff!
6:21 — A fw random small counties are showing substantial Hillary wins. As expected.
Right here.
May 6th, 2008 at 5:07 pm
Polls are closed in Indiana… awaiting the first trickles of results…
May 6th, 2008 at 5:08 pm
Thought they closed at 6 central time?
May 6th, 2008 at 5:08 pm
Ahhhh…but IN went on daylight saving time . . .
May 6th, 2008 at 5:14 pm
After the first 3,700 votes in Indiana, Hillary’s up 66%-34%. And the fun begins!
May 6th, 2008 at 5:19 pm
Woo hoo… 4,800 votes in now, Hillary’s up 64%-36%. I’m such a nerd.
May 6th, 2008 at 5:24 pm
From the, “The longer this goes on, the better for us” department (h/t Marc Ambinder):
“[T]he polarization within the Democratic Party has reached critical levels. Nearly six in ten Obama supporters in Indiana say they would be dissatisfied if Clinton were the nominee — that’s (I believe) the high percentage of Obama supporters who have ever said that.
In both IN and NC, two thirds of Clinton supporters say they’d be dissatisfied if Obama were the nominee — I believe that’s the highest number recorded for that question, too.
The percentage of Clinton voters who say they’d choose McCain over Obama in a general election is approaching 40% in Indiana. Put it another way: in North Carolina, less than HALF of folks who voted today for Hillary Clinton are ready to say today that they’d definitely vote for Obama in a general election.”
May 6th, 2008 at 5:24 pm
6,300 votes in now… Hillary still up 64%-36%.
That accounts for 0% of precincts, by the way.
May 6th, 2008 at 5:31 pm
Hillary up 60-40 from the first bit of info from Front Wayne…
May 6th, 2008 at 5:36 pm
2% in, still 61%-39%…
May 6th, 2008 at 5:38 pm
Go Hillary Go
May 6th, 2008 at 5:46 pm
C’mon Hillary!
May 6th, 2008 at 5:50 pm
The important matter now is how she manages in the cities. If she overpreforms, she could be in for a great night.
May 6th, 2008 at 5:53 pm
Sean,
You never told us what the maps represent in the other thread.
May 6th, 2008 at 5:55 pm
I voted for Keyes in the nc primary. I know many operation chaos repubs that crossed over for Hillary in the dem primary.
May 6th, 2008 at 5:56 pm
first votes from Front Wayne 55-45 for Obama
May 6th, 2008 at 5:58 pm
Democrats cannot win NC in the fall, so Obama’s win there is quite irrelevant.
But a huge Hillary win in the Hoosier State would be significant.
May 6th, 2008 at 5:59 pm
Gamecock,
I voted for Keyes in the nc primary.
?!?!?!!?!?
May 6th, 2008 at 6:04 pm
LJ
I will vote for McCain in the fall.
I only voted because I want McCrory to be the GOP nominee for governor.
Given my anger at McCain for his announced intention yesterday to speak to the racist hate group La Raza, I couldn’t bring myself to cast a meaningless vote for him so I chose to cast a protest vote. I couldn’t vote for Huckabee because of recent defenses of Obama-Wright. Ron Paul? I would love to see a budget vetoed, but he is a kook on national defense.
I almost changed parties in 2000 to vote for Keyes. He is a genius on the est clause of the first amendment. I respect him.
so there
fire away
May 6th, 2008 at 6:15 pm
How irritating.
We need this race to go to the convention! We need a big Clinton win! We need her to turn the tide!
May 6th, 2008 at 6:20 pm
Gamecock,
You could have voted for Hillary though.
May 6th, 2008 at 6:24 pm
Oh damn. Obama’s got NC won. Fox says they’re gonna call it in NC as soon as the polls close.
May 6th, 2008 at 6:24 pm
If you want to know what WV is going to look like take a peek at the Southeast part of the state. She is up 70-30 in about every Country.
May 6th, 2008 at 6:26 pm
2/3 was Wayne. Obama up 10
May 6th, 2008 at 6:30 pm
sorry if I am not on track here. Question – why is Drudge predicting an easy win for Obama in NC?
I’m praying Hillary wins in IN and NC….
Thanx
May 6th, 2008 at 6:32 pm
I just saw comment #21. Did Obama win NC? OMG!
May 6th, 2008 at 6:35 pm
LJ
I am a party man. I also love Rush. I also understand that a lot of dems and indies crossed over and picked mccain as our nominee. But all those years I was a dem in sc and there were many more significant races in the gop primaries, I never crossed over. My repub brother in Missouri, and best friend con dems cuz and uncle in Bama all crossed over: bro for obama before we knew him and bamians for huck.
But I can’t do it.
I do think that it is more important that obama not be prez that that mccain be prez.
May 6th, 2008 at 6:36 pm
#24
The only dems left in nc are blacks and university town white libs.
May 6th, 2008 at 6:37 pm
The Reagan dems in the south are now repubs. This ain’t pennsylvania.
May 6th, 2008 at 6:41 pm
Wow how surprising – not!
He did win SC by about 30 didn’t he?
It’s over (again lol).
Will HRC concede this week??
May 6th, 2008 at 6:46 pm
Is it out of bounds for Hillary supporters to trumpet the fact that Obama would not have won NC if 35% of the population was African American and they voted for him 95%-5%? Or is that too overtly racial?
May 6th, 2008 at 6:53 pm
William (#30)
They can’t trumpet it, without losing the general from those comments being replayed (”she doesn’t care about Black voters”)
But they can trumpet that Hillary is “stronger with white working class blue-collar voters”, which implies the same thing…
May 6th, 2008 at 7:02 pm
It’s not out of bounds, or politically taboo for Hillary Clinton supporters to trumpet the fact that she crushed Barack Obama in North Carolina among white working class voters by a 2-to-1 margin.
May 6th, 2008 at 7:08 pm
Thanks to Howard Dean telling Tim Russert last week that the delegates in Florida and Michigan will be seated, Hillary has taken the liberty of pushing the finish line back from 2025 to 2209.
May 6th, 2008 at 7:09 pm
I thought Clinton would do better than this in North Carolina. On the surface, Obama won by a comfortable margin. The internals are stronger for Clinton though since Obama only won because he won the black vote by 90 points, and they are one-third of all voters. I think Clinton will crush Obama in West Virginia next week, and in two weeks in Kentucky. Oregon will be interesting. Obama will likely be the nominee still, which is a good thing, because Obama is going to have major problems in November winning blue-collar voters and Hispanics.
May 6th, 2008 at 7:09 pm
Eh, this isn’t good. Hillary needed a much better night.
Still, she soldiers on and she’ll get huge blowouts in WV and KY. She needs 40-point margins there — which is possible.
May 6th, 2008 at 7:20 pm
Watch MSNBC – it’s disturbing yet funny. watch chris and olbermann spin every single story – even if Hillary does win Indiana, she won’t really have won since Rush is telling people to vote for her, etc.
May 6th, 2008 at 7:41 pm
It serves Bill and Hillary right to lose the black vote 92-6 in NC. The nation’s 1st black president and his wife, abandoned by the black community. I love it.
They’ve turned this into a race thing and it bit them tonight. Live by the sword, die by the sword.
Newsflash for Bill and Hillary. It’s 2008, not 1958. Barack isn’t going to move to the nack of the bus for you.
May 6th, 2008 at 7:44 pm
The Democrats have lived by identity politics. Now they are reaping what they’ve sown. Whites are backing Clinton 2 to 1. Blacks are 12 to 1 for Obama.
May 6th, 2008 at 7:51 pm
In both states today, Clinton won 60% of the white vote, and Obama about 93% of the black vote. The difference between the two results is the % of voters who are black.
In that regard, Obama had a VERY poor showing today. He’s supposed to be rapping this race up, and can break 40% of the white vote IN HIS OWN PARTY!!!!!
May 6th, 2008 at 7:51 pm
Jim, our resident Obama cultist.
May 6th, 2008 at 7:56 pm
South Bend, IN just reported in. It went 53-47 for Obama. He netted only 3,000 votes from there. I believe that’s where Notre Dame is.
May 6th, 2008 at 7:59 pm
With a heavy Catholic/working class set there, she really should have done better.
May 6th, 2008 at 8:01 pm
jim,
Do you think Obama’s inability to crack 40% of the white vote in his own party- as the messianic run-away favorite- is a problem?
May 6th, 2008 at 8:03 pm
Hillary’s got to be wincing right now.
May 6th, 2008 at 8:05 pm
Resident Obama cultist?
I was one of the earliest Rudy supporters on here, mixing it up with ACT Blog, Murphy, Dskinner, MyManMitt, Jason Bonham, Justin Hart and all the rest of the Rombots.
I didn’t really have a preference in the dem primary. I was pulling for Hillary big time in OH and TX so that she sould prolong the race by a few months, and she did.
This is the best thing that has happened to the GOP in a while. She’ll stay in and blow him out in WV and KY by 25+. She’s already started talking about how 2209 is the #, not 2025. She’s going to stay in to net 400,000 votes from Puerto Rico and use that to justify her popular vote advantage. She will take FL and MI all the way to the floor. She won’t leave until the 2209th delegate has voted for Obama, and even then Pelosi may have to call in security to drag her away from the stage. I can picture her up in the rafters, like Lawrence Harvey in the Manchurian Candidate.
But I do take a certain pride in seeing her get spanked in NC due to the black vote when she and Bill have basically been pushing this theme that he’s too black to win for months now. Seeing the Clintons ruin their reputation among the black community is priceless. I bet McCain is actually more popular with blacks now than Bill and Hillary are.
May 6th, 2008 at 8:10 pm
#30
They (dems) haven’t the guts, nor do many repubs.
BUT I DO. HERE ARE THE FACTS. OBAMA NEARLY WON THE WHITE MALE VOTE IN GEORGIA. HE WON MANY ALL WHITE STATES. HIS % OF THE WHITE VOTE HAS DROPPED AS MORE WAS LEARNED ABOUT HIM
ONE THING THAT WAS NOT LEARNED LATER ON AS HIS WHITE VOTE DROPPED WAS THAT HE WAS BLACK. THAT WAS A CONSTANT.
HIS % OF THE BLACK VOTE HAS REMAINED CONSTANT ABOVE 90% REGARDLESS OF MORE INFO.
BLACKS ARE VOTING RACE.
THAT IS RACIST.
WHITES ARE VOTING BASED ON INFORMATION.
THAT IS NOT RACIST.
May 6th, 2008 at 8:11 pm
#42
ONE MUST NEVER CONFUSE DEM PRIMARY VOTERS WITH AMERICA.
THE DEM PARTY IS VILE.
INCLUDING HILLARY.
May 6th, 2008 at 8:12 pm
#43no doubt
yes
May 6th, 2008 at 8:14 pm
But jim, it seems that every time someone criticizes Obama here, you come rushing to his defense…
Do you like Obama..?
May 6th, 2008 at 8:23 pm
Yikes. Obama horrifies me: “We’re going to take money from the oil companies and make them invest it in new energy sources!”
May 6th, 2008 at 8:24 pm
Alex, or TLG as I recall when you and I were bashing the Rombots and celebrating his downfall in IA and NH(I can’t believe that was 4 months ago now):
Do I like Obama? Not really. I do like some things about him, I guess. But what I like most is that he’s not Bill and Hillary. I’m sick of the Clintons. I’m sick of them being around for 16 years and wanting to be around for 8 more.
More to the point, my posts recently have been more aimed at a certain segment of conservatives and republicans that seem to be rooting for Hillary now and liking her all of a sudden. Also, the media who’s pretending that the race is a tie and up for grabs when in reality Obama pretty much won it back in February.
I’m also rooting for Obama because I see that he’d be easier to defeat in November. His #s among white democrats, white women, seniors, catholics, jews, hispanics and other key groups will be trouble for him.
May 6th, 2008 at 8:25 pm
If Hillary does win Indiana, it will be due to operation chaos.
May 6th, 2008 at 8:26 pm
My guess is that Obama will win IN or lose very narrowly. Lake county is still out and that will be lopsided for his holiness.
May 6th, 2008 at 8:31 pm
More to the point, my posts recently have been more aimed at a certain segment of conservatives and republicans that seem to be rooting for Hillary now and liking her all of a sudden
Well, you know I posted something the other day as a wake-up call.
Also, the media who’s pretending that the race is a tie and up for grabs when in reality Obama pretty much won it back in February.
Maybe. It looks a lot less certain for him post-Wright, post-Ayers, post-can’t-win-over-white-working-class-voters-in-the-least.
I’m also rooting for Obama because I see that he’d be easier to defeat in November. His #s among white democrats, white women, seniors, catholics, jews, hispanics and other key groups will be trouble for him.
Definitely. We want to take on Obama now so we can get rid of him for good on a national level. We do not want to take on Hillary Clinton.
May 6th, 2008 at 8:32 pm
Indiana is close…
CBS has called it, but others aren’t following suit…
May 6th, 2008 at 8:43 pm
MSNBC just shifted Indiana to “too close to call”, but Obama camp think they’ll fall just short. Lake still to go of course.
May 6th, 2008 at 8:51 pm
“Lake county is still out and that will be lopsided for his holiness.”
Perhaps, but he’s down 30K votes. There were about 60K votes case in Allen county, which has a comparable size. Then again, Lake is more Dem. Who knows?
May 6th, 2008 at 8:56 pm
In any case, if he falls just short (say 51-49) then the money is likely to dry up for Hillary. Tonight she’s lost a big chunk of delegates, and the popular vote (her last remaining argument).
She may renew a massive campaign for Florida & Michigan, to bring those back, or she may have to give up once the superdelegates shift. Obama has got lots of momentum from tonight, no question.
May 6th, 2008 at 9:00 pm
I don’t expect Obama to gain any momentum from tonight by winning North Carolina. He was expected to win, and has won. There’s really nothing tonight out of the ordinary. It will stay the same. What’s really going to surprise people is going to be the margin of victory for Hillary in West Virginia next week.
May 6th, 2008 at 9:03 pm
Eric, Obama won NC by probably more than expected while Clinton has probably won Indiana by less than expected. Its an expectations game. Of course he’s gained momentum.
Plus, Clinton is almost out of opportunities to overturn his lead in delegates/popular vote. These were the two biggest remaining states…
May 6th, 2008 at 9:04 pm
I think Obama would have won Indiana if not for Operation Chaos. He would have won Texas too.
May 6th, 2008 at 9:11 pm
Meanwhile, McCain only got 77% of the vote, with Huck getting 10%+ and Paul getting 7%. How come he can’t win more – is that a protest vote?
May 6th, 2008 at 9:16 pm
Lake County will go for Obama, but I think folks may perceive it as more African-American than it is, because of Gary. Outside Gary, the rest of the part bordering the lake is depressed and dirty old steel towns, mostly white ethnic with a fair number of Hispanics. The southern portion of the county is middle-class white suburbs. Overall, the county is 25% AA, and 14% Hispanic. Hillary will do reasonably well there — I don’t see Lake County giving Obama anything like a 30,000 vote margin.
(I live in Illinois, but only five miles across the border from Lake County).
Notwithstanding the above, this has been a huge blow to Hillary.
May 6th, 2008 at 9:22 pm
Why this is a game-changer for Obama:
1) He beat expectations, comfortably
2) He racked up a big gain in delegates & popular vote.
3) He won a big state (he’s now won 3 out of the top 10 states, with Hillary winning 4, Texas going two ways, and Florida/Michigan maybe not counting).
May 6th, 2008 at 9:23 pm
Looking at the county-by-county map for Indiana, all of the counties bordering Kentucky were won by Hillary Clinton by lopsided margins. These counties are probably good indicators for how Kentucky will go. West Virginia should be even worse than Kentucky for Obama. Obama can relish his victory tonight, but North Carolina is the last state where there is a significant black population. All that remains is WV, KY, OR, PR, SD, and MT. None of those have significant black populations. I’m pretty sure he’ll lose WV, KY, and PR by double digits. I still expect Obama to be the nominee, but I want him to lose as much as possible to alienate the Reagan Democrats so that McCain wins in November.
May 6th, 2008 at 9:34 pm
#64 agreed but
Hillary wins the big states that dems can win in the fall, some of which they must win
Obama won his safe for him and dems state of Illinois. NC will be GOP in Nov.
May 6th, 2008 at 10:12 pm
#63, that’s a relief
May 6th, 2008 at 10:13 pm
Now, the biggest question; what happens next?
May 6th, 2008 at 10:21 pm
Jim is a god. I’ve got nothing else to say. *sniff*
May 6th, 2008 at 10:50 pm
This race will be over by the end of the month.
May 6th, 2008 at 11:03 pm
As for Hillary dropping out:
I don’t think anyone has ever dropped out after they’ve won a contest. Assuming she holds on in IN, she won’t.
Also, she has blowout wins coming up in WV and KY where she’ll win by 20+, no way she drops out with those coming up.
And finally, the big enchilada. Puerto Rico. Turnout estimated at 2 million and Hillary favored big. She could rack enough votes to vault past Obama once FL and MI are counted. PR is her ace in the whole. I wouldn’t be surprised to see her grab Rita Moreno and be traipsing around San Juan. Send Bill out to all the barrios.
Viva Hillary!