GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
Um, what? Look at what Drudge is saying:
Hillary Clinton’s inner circle now fears a stinging defeat is likely in North Carolina.“Look, we worked hard and gave it our best shot, but the demographics, well, they are what they are,” a top campaign source explained……The campaign now believes a 15 point loss, or more, would not be surprising. Her team will work hard throughout the day to lower all expectations in North Carolina.
The campaign hopes media attention will stay fixated on the competition in Indiana, where 72 delegates are on the line, and Clinton internals show a victory…
Does anyone else think that this is an utterly bogus attempt at playing the expectations game? Is everyone else completely and utterly wrong? The article also mentions that the Clinton camp expects up to a 10-point win in Indiana, which is more or less in line with the polls, given Hillary’s penchant for picking up undecideds — is that just a trojan horse for letting the lie of a potential blowout for Obama in North Carolina in? Is this the much-heralded Clinton Machine at work? Or is this really the truth — are the conventional polls really, truly off, and is Obama really headed for a massive victory..?
Somebody’s got to win.
Stay tuned…
May 6th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
spot-on
May 6th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
Spot-on re managing expectations.
May 6th, 2008 at 1:01 pm
Obama has always massively over-performed in states with large numbers of blacks. He did something in the neighborhood of 10-20 better the RCP average in states like SC, AL, GA, etc. I don’t think a 15 point Obama victory is at all out of the question with the RCP giving him a 7 point lead. Indiana on the other hand is just the sort of state Hillary’s been over-performing in.
May 6th, 2008 at 1:13 pm
This is just managing expectations. My sense for this one is that the conventional wisdom will be spot on. The RCP average shows Clinton only behind 8. I doubt she will lose by 15.
May 6th, 2008 at 1:43 pm
Definitely trying to lower expectations in NC, and more importantly, shift all focus to Indiana.
May 6th, 2008 at 1:48 pm
How can she possibly think she can pull this thing off? I’m starting to wonder if she’s trying to create a situation that only her VP selection could mend.
May 6th, 2008 at 1:52 pm
Mr. T: Clinton still expects the Dems to sit Michigan adn Florida which will may give her the popular vote. She is hoping that the Democrats will relize it is extremely stupid to deny seats to the nations 4th and 8th largest states.
May 6th, 2008 at 2:01 pm
If Michigan and Florida are seated Hillary could move ahead in delegates.
Since a majority on the rules committee support Hillary we could see this happen.
May 6th, 2008 at 2:13 pm
From what I’ve heard Doug, the Rules committee has 1 or 2 people per state, plus people from the National Committee. Obama will win more states and Dean’s people are unfriendly to Clinton. She has 3 ways of getting Michigan and Florida seated:
1.) Compromise before the convention
2.) A floor fight where uncommitted superdelegates vote for her or she pry’s enough Obama delegates away on that issue.
3.) If a floor fight happens, it is ruled that Michigan can vote on Florida and Florida can vote on Michigan
May 6th, 2008 at 2:17 pm
Jonathon the Rules Committee meets on May 31 and has no connection to how the primaries/caucuses voted. The rules committee’s members are already selected and a majority of them support Hillary.
The Rules Committee has the authority to seat Michigan and Florida. If Obama tries to disenfranchise Florida and Michigan at the Convention, it will be a battle royale that splits the party.
May 6th, 2008 at 2:21 pm
Sorry Doug, I thought you meant the committee at the convention. If the Rules Committee doesn’t decide it, then I think the Credentials Committee would have to deal with it at the convention.
May 6th, 2008 at 2:35 pm
Just so you know what to expect today/tonight/next couple weeks:
http://208.76.84.21/thefield/?p=1160
May 6th, 2008 at 5:14 pm
She will lose 56 to 44 in NC.
May 6th, 2008 at 5:50 pm
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