GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
- John McCain 47%
- Barack Obama 43%
- John McCain 47%
- Hillary Clinton 43%
Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)
- John McCain 58% / 40% (+18%)
- Barack Obama 51% / 48% (+3%)
- Hillary Clinton 46% / 52% (-6%)
This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on May 5, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. John Kerry won the state for the Democrats in 2004 by 10,000 votes out of three million cast. Four years earlier, Al Gore won the state by only 5,000 votes.
A huge concern among consumers today is the price of gas. With the rapid increase in gas prices in recent months, McCain and Clinton openly favor a gas tax holiday during the summer, while Obama is opposed. Nearly half (47%) of Wisconsin voters favor a gas tax holiday, while 38% are opposed to the idea. These figures are similar to the national average.
The survey also found that more voters are worried about the next president raising taxes, rather than cutting them. Sixty-one percent (61%) of Wisconsin voters are at least somewhat worried that the next president will raise taxes too much and harm the economy. Meanwhile, just 35% are concerned that the next president will cut taxes too much and harm important government programs.
Thirty-nine percent (39%) of Wisconsin voters believe the government needs more tax revenue to fund important national programs. Forty-three percent (43%) disagree.
Both democratic candidates have stated that they would consider raising the capital gains tax. Obama has voiced that he would consider raising the tax from 15% to 28%. In Wisconsin, 59% of voters oppose a raise in the capital gains tax. Nearly half (49%) of voters believe a raise in the tax would hurt the economy. Nationally, 65% of voters are opposed to a raise in the capital gains tax.
May 7th, 2008 at 6:34 pm
This is good news.
May 7th, 2008 at 6:38 pm
I’m just worried once Obama finally gets the nomination his poll numbers begin soaring.
May 7th, 2008 at 6:42 pm
Yes it is good news…and I just don’t see Obama’s numbers soaring. He’s got too much going against him in the average person demographic. His VP choice will be very important.
May 7th, 2008 at 7:20 pm
The upper Midwest is ripe for the picking, if we don’t blow it.
May 7th, 2008 at 7:51 pm
Great News!
May 7th, 2008 at 8:26 pm
T-Paw probably has a better chance of swinging Wisconsin then he does of swinging Minnesota. The former is going to be competitive regardless of who’s on the ticket, he’d probably tip the scales.
May 7th, 2008 at 8:27 pm
NO WAY!
May 7th, 2008 at 8:36 pm
Wisconsin is winnable, but will be close… this is why we need Paul Ryan as VP.
May 7th, 2008 at 8:37 pm
IR-MN, what’s so unbelievable?
May 7th, 2008 at 8:40 pm
Ryan,
Why would we take a very unknown congressman, which probably wouldn’t help very much, versus the other candidates. 1 state flipping is not why a VP is chosen. It’s chosen to be president in case of the worst, and to (hopefully) help in the election.
May 7th, 2008 at 8:42 pm
#9, just happy that Snobama isn’t winning a nearby state. If he can’t win uber-wisconsin then he’s really beatable.
May 7th, 2008 at 8:56 pm
Beware.
This is Rasmussen, which consistently favors McCain in McCain/Democrat matchups. And it’s only one poll, which could be an outlier.
May 7th, 2008 at 9:13 pm
The Upper Midwest is interesting in that it tends to be economically liberal, socially conservative, and dovish. The fact that McCain can run ahead of Obama in a Democrat state where he trounced Clinton is extremely compelling. There is something serious broken in the Obama campaign when it comes to Reagan Democrats, and Wisconsin is part of Reagan Democrat country. I would love to see MN, WI, and MI all swing red this year. With Obama as the Socialist nominee, it could happen.
May 8th, 2008 at 5:23 am
Unless or until McCain get to 50 I don’t believe it. The region is just too dovish.
May 8th, 2008 at 8:02 am
The last two times Wisconsin had Bush ahead for most of the year and then the Dems won. They have a good GOTV operation there. If it wasn’t for the war, McCain would fit the state relatively well. He is socially conservative, fiscally center-right (conservative on spending, moderate on taxes), a maverick. If there is any Republican who fits Wisconsin it’s McCain except for the war issue. The trouble is Obama also fits Wisconsin well.
May 8th, 2008 at 8:07 am
#13, I was talking to a distant relative of mine who lives in Wisconsin and is a very conservative Republican. He said that the best way Republicans could win there would be to have someone socially conservative but liberal on everything else. I found that interesting because my state of New Hampshire is the exact opposite of that.
May 8th, 2008 at 8:10 am
This will sound nerdy, but I don’t know if any of you are familiar with those “swing maps” that are on uselectionatlas.org. They show which states moved left or right relative to the national average for each election. The states that moved the most Republican from 1988 to 1992 were in the upper Midwest. In Iowa for example, Mike Dukakis actually won bigger than Bill Clinton did. The states where Bill Clinton did worse or only about the same as Mike Dukakis were Iowa, Wisconsin, the Dakotas, and Minnesota.
May 8th, 2008 at 9:02 am
“Why would we take a very unknown congressman, which probably wouldn’t help very much, versus the other candidates. 1 state flipping is not why a VP is chosen. It’s chosen to be president in case of the worst, and to (hopefully) help in the election.”
Paul Ryan delivers Wisconsin and has much more experience than Obama. He is unknown outside of Wisconsin and therefore will neither help nor hurt us elsewhere. But I have a feeling people would grow to like him as they learn about him.
Most anyone else who is better known (Romney, Huckabee, Rudy) is going to turn off a lot of people and probably not deliver any state (let alone one with 10 electoral votes).
If Timmy P is discussed as a serious candidate, then Paul Ryan certainly should be too.