My stupid real job is getting in the way of explaining what I think happened Tuesday night. Here’s the basic takeaways, which I’ll expand upon tonight or tomorrow:
(1) North Carolina behaved exactly like other Southern states behaved. Our model predicted that he would get 55.4% of the vote. He got a little upwards of 56%. Using the actual results for NC, race and college education in a county explain over 80% of the variance.
(2) Indiana behaved differently than Ohio and Pennsylvania. But it did so consistently. The predicted map looked like the actual map. It is just consistently bluer than the actual map. Moreover, the coefficients for the variables are the same in IN as in OH and PA. Some other variable moved the state as a whole about 6 points his direction. Looking at the composite map at the bottom, it looks like Indiana behaved like Western Ohio. I thought that I had captured that variance by controlling for the increased Republican nature of Western Ohio, but apparently there is something else. Population density? It looks like Obama overperformed especially in small and medium cities like Ft. Wayne, Evanston, and college towns like South Bend and Bloomington. It’s more than just the college nature of the towns, as we have a variable to control for college education. I welcome thoughts.
(3) Appalachia didn’t budge. She is going to absolutely blow him out of the water in West VA and KY. Whether that is enough to get her back in the race is another matter altogether.
Predicted North Carolina
Actual North Carolina
Predicted Indiana
Actual Indiana
Composite Map To Date
May 8th, 2008 at 9:27 am
Sean, you still haven’t told us what those other two maps were the other night.
May 8th, 2008 at 9:27 am
Sean,
What about age of the electorate? Maybe something like percentage of registered voters n each county under 45 years old? There no doubt will be some difference between PA and IN, and almost certainly OH and IN as well.
May 8th, 2008 at 9:50 am
Obama plans to declare victory May 20
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10184.html
May 8th, 2008 at 9:53 am
WVA and Kentucky will not change anything. The media has already called it and they won’t suddenly declare themselves wrong. Indeed, most pundits are already crediting Clinton with huge wins in those states.
As far as what happened Tuesday the most important fact is that Obama did not seem to be damaged at all from what was two months of bad publicity. Indeed, given a couple more days he would have won Indiana too. What this tells me is that the GOP playbook better have more than some Rev. Wright clips because Obama seems to have a strong chin.
May 8th, 2008 at 10:05 am
The biggest difference between Indiana and several surrounding states is that there is no city in Indiana as big as Cleveland, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Chicago and even St. Louis. Yet the economic, religious, ethnic and racial make up is similar to other states. In short, because of the urban rural split in Indiana, most types of people who voted for Mrs. Clinton in Ohio, PA ect are not members of the Democrat Party in Indiana. So while some Republicans did cross over to her her the win, it was enough to give her the margin.
May 8th, 2008 at 10:29 am
Innovative White Paper Assesses Presidential Candidates Financial Psychology and Global impact
A White Paper released by the Perth Leadership Institute and written by leadership expert and author Dr. E. Ted Prince analyzes the final three U. S. presidential candidates from a novel and intriguing perspective; their impact on the economy, U.S. global leadership and competitiveness. This White Paper asks whether the presidential candidates will keep the U.S. in the forefront of the world’s leading countries and societies. It concludes that none of the three candidates will have such an impact and the choice is between who will have the least adverse impact on U.S. world leadership and competitive position.
According to Dr. E. Ted Prince, Founder and CEO of the Institute: “Value creation by leaders, whether they are political or business, is more than a matter of wise stewardship of resources. It is, or should be, also about value creation. Analysis of the candidates reveals that they are far more about resource redistribution than about value creation. This has huge, and adverse, ramifications for the U.S, global competitive and leadership position now and in the future.â€
The paper examines in detail the behavioral finance characteristics of the three front-runners and shows who is likely to have the most and the least adverse impacts on U.S. global position.
http://www.perthleadership.org/White_Papers.htm#election
May 8th, 2008 at 10:37 am
The real figure to watch out for in West Virginia will not be the margin of Hillary’s win or her net gain in delegates. Both are a given. The real number to watch is how much money she raises over the internet after her win. If her supporters are convinced her West Virginia win changes the dynamics of the race, they will give her enough money to continue the campaign, if not she will be broke by May 20 and the race will be over shortly thereafter.
May 8th, 2008 at 10:53 am
I live in Northeastern Indiana. I voted for Hillary Tuesday, but will vote for McCain in the fall. All of my family and most of my friends and neighbors are republicans. Some didn’t vote in the primary at all because McCain had already clinched the nomination. Those who did vote for either Hillary or Obama said they prefered one over the other for whatever reason, but that they would still vote republican in the fall. I don’t think Indiana will go blue this November.
May 8th, 2008 at 11:11 am
Amy, you said you lived around Ft. Wayne the other day. May I ask if you have heard of Markle, IN?
May 8th, 2008 at 11:28 am
I’ve driven though it several times on my way to Bluffton. My husband graduated from Norwell which I believe is close to Markle. I’m from Indianapolis myself.
May 8th, 2008 at 11:32 am
My mom was born and raised in Markle. You are the first person I’ve talked to who knows where it is!
May 8th, 2008 at 11:41 am
Sean, I said last week your margins in IN were off, and they were. Born and raised a Hoosier, I was pretty confident the state was not going to go as far Clinton as Ohio and PA, where I now reside. Come Nov, there is no way IN evens hints at going Dem just like for how many of the past decades.
May 8th, 2008 at 11:45 am
Northeastern Indiana is a great place. Very flat but green and rolling farmland all around. The job market is not good though. Sure wish a president could help with that. I really don’t think any of the remaining candidates will be able to do much to help that out. My husband works in I.T. and so far his job has been outsourced to help desks in India twice. Once with G.E. and once with another company. I thought that Mitt Romney would have been the best choice to help with jobs.
May 8th, 2008 at 11:56 am
I just read somewhere that Cindy McCain says they won’t go negative against Obama. That’s interesting how they didn’t mind going negative against Romney, calling him a phoney. I’ll bet you anything that the McCains like dislike Romney personally more than they dislike Romney, and that gets me really mad.
May 8th, 2008 at 11:57 am
I’m sorry, they dislike Romney more than they dislike Obama.
May 8th, 2008 at 11:59 am
I think the McCains are making a calculation that they don’t need to go negative against Obama. McCain wants to play good cop to Limbuagh and Hannity’s bad cop act.
May 8th, 2008 at 12:00 pm
If this were one of the Bushes, they would be a lot more negative against Obama. George Bush Sr. didn’t attack his own party when they attacked Dukakis. Both he and his son played a much rougher game than McCain is playing, and that’s why McCain might not win even though he has this liberal extremist as an opponent.
May 8th, 2008 at 12:01 pm
Adam, that’s true that Obama may self-destruct on his own, but I don’t think the Bushes would have ever told the North Carolina GOP to stop running a negative ad the way McCain did.
May 8th, 2008 at 12:04 pm
Clarence,
You’re right. But McCain realized he made too much of a fuss over the NC ad and quickly backed off saying he wasn’t going to be “referee”. Bush had his surrogates play dirty in SC against McCain though, while he tried to stay above the fray. And McCain didn’t hesitate to bring up Ayers to George Stephapotamus. We’ll see how long he plays the “gentleman” act.
May 8th, 2008 at 12:16 pm
FOX news is saying that Obama plans to declare victory in the race for the nomination on May 20th, presumably the night he wins the Oregon primary.
May 8th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
McCain also realizes that Hillary profited little by going negative. Indeed while she managed to raise Obama’s negatives, her’s skyrocketed. McCain’s negatives are sure to go up, but he can’t afford to have negatives in the mid 40’s.
Lastly, after declaring his intentions to be positive the media will look for any sign that McCain is being duplicitous. He will need to keep his word.
May 8th, 2008 at 12:50 pm
Actually, the best way to go negative, as two-faced as it may be, is to be negative beneath the surface. For example, Tom Daschle when he was Senate Democrat Leader was one of the most partisan Democrats there was, but when he was on TV, he always said, “We just want to work together.” “We just want to work with the Republicans.” Then old ladies watching would say, “Awwww, what a nice guy.” when he was actually played a really rough political game. It is two-faced, but it works unfortunately. That may be McCain’s strategy.
May 8th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/georgia/election_2008_georgia_presidential_election
McCain up huge in GA over Obama (Does Clinton numbers even matter at this point.)
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/missouri/election_2008_missouri_presidential_election
Up in Missiour too, but be warn that in Iowa, Winconsin, Indy, and Missiour Obama was underpolled in these states that touch Ill.
May 8th, 2008 at 1:10 pm
Missouri is not an Obama type state even though he won it in the primary.
May 8th, 2008 at 1:17 pm
Of course Obama wants to declare victory the night of the 20th. It’ll be his last chance before Clinton overtakes him in the popular vote after Puerto Rico.
If I’m her, I delcare victory after Kentucky. Oregon won’t be announced until after 11 in the east and KY will be called hours earlier. I give a strong speech, announce I’m staying in through June. Play up the popular vote, reiterate my calls for FL and MI, declare that I will be the popular vote leader at the convention, and stake my claim.
Obama is going to declare victory after successive weeks of blowout losses? Please
May 8th, 2008 at 1:37 pm
Jim, and just how does Hillary have the popular vote, IYO? Please don’t tell me you are going to count the MI votes for her when he was not even on the ballot. If so, go jump off another cliff.
May 8th, 2008 at 1:44 pm
Steve, Obama took HIMSELF off the Michigan ballot. He could have stayed on.
May 8th, 2008 at 2:04 pm
[...] in the counties and precincts located in the region of the country known as Appalachia. This does not bode well for Barack Obama in Kentucky and West Virginia: Appalachia didn’t budge. [Clinton] is going to [...]
May 8th, 2008 at 2:11 pm
Sean,
What is the influence of the Chicago media market, and do you ahve a way to control for that? I know many pundits predicted that NW Indiana would give Obama a boost due to favorable coverage out of Chicago, but how closely are local news stations and papers in IN affiliated with the larger ones in Chicago. If they borrow content, then you have a possible reason there. How would your models have predicted Wisonsin and Iowa?
May 8th, 2008 at 4:28 pm
Steve, even without MI, after Puerto Rico, Hillary will lead in the popular vote.
With FL, where they were both on the ballot, Obama has around a 500K margin now. Hillary will net at least 200K after WV and KY vote, and possibly more than 300K.
In Puerto Rico she stands to ney at least 400K and possibly much more.
So, even without MI, she’ll lead in the popular vote after all the primaries are finished.
May 8th, 2008 at 5:43 pm
No she won’t.
May 8th, 2008 at 6:51 pm
Nothing I have seen anywhere gives me any reason to believe that Hillary has any method of claiming the popular vote. Not unless y’all come up with some really crazy accounting which I would guess she might do, but the super delegates aren’t going to buy it. And Clarance, he took himself off the ballot and she didn’t? If that is your method of counting, you are really reaching for straws. She also said, “Why does it matter if my name is on the ballot, everyone knows that Michigan isn’t going to count anyway.” Now, it is, “Oh, but you misheard me or something and I want to claim all the votes for me and give zero to BO.” Sorry, HRC people, you can’t have it both ways and the more you argue that point, the more ridiculous you appear. The best thing HRC could do right now for the party and the nation, is to win WV and KY and then pull out of the race. Obama will take Oregon, SD and Montana. So at best we have 3 states going to him, 2 to HRC and PR going to HRC as well. Splitting 3-3 the rest of the way is not going to change anybodys mind.
May 8th, 2008 at 8:01 pm
Not even hillary is arguing about the popular vote now. North Carolina sealed that deal for Obama.
May 9th, 2008 at 2:33 am
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