GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
That was the title of the promotional campaign launched by my native state while I was growing up there during the 1980s. But while the once-vibrant industrial communities such as the one in which I grew up have since been boarded up, Michigan’s electoral prowess remains. John Kerry only won the state by three points in 2004, and he did so as an ethnic Catholic veteran in a state full of ethnics and Catholics and veterans. As such, Michigan’s 17 electoral votes should most definitely be in play for John McCain.
Many pundits have written off McCain’s chances in Michigan due to Barack Obama’s strength among African-American voters. According to cynical observers, the largely African-American city of Detroit, long part of a traditional urban Democratic machine, will likely keep its polls open until Obama has secured enough votes to take the state. The dead will rise on Election Day just long enough to vote Democratic and then wander back into the grave. While all of that may very well be true, the thing to remember about Michigan is that while Barack Obama is the candidate of the dead, John McCain is the candidate of the living.
While urban Michigan is Obama country, suburban and rural Michigan is made for McCain. Detroit’s suburbs sport an especially high Jewish population, a demographic leery of Barack Obama. Meanwhile, the small towns and rural areas that comprise the rest of the state are filled with working class and middle class white ethnics. This was definitely true of my native community, which consisted largely of Poles and Italians, among others, and where about one out of every two individuals at least nominally belonged to one of two Roman Catholic parishes.
Recent polling validates this point of view. David Wissing links to a new Rasmussen poll showing John McCain leading Barack Obama in Michigan by a single point. Meanwhile, the RCP polling archives show that Obama hasn’t led McCain in the state since February. In fact, three out of the last five polls in Michigan show McCain beating Obama in the state.
Michigan, along with Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire, has to be part of McCain’s Northern Strategy to win the White House. These are all states where McCain can connect culturally with voters in a way that Bush couldn’t, and where Obama cannot connect culturally with voters to the extent that Kerry could. In 2004, John Kerry carried 44 percent of the white vote in Michigan. In Indiana last Tuesday, Obama couldn’t even garner the support of 40 percent of white Democrats. If Obama can’t win the kinds of white voters that populate states like Michigan, he’s not going to win those states in November, regardless of the inevitable 110 percent turnout in cities like Detroit.
May 10th, 2008 at 2:29 pm
Obama’s strength among African American voters will only benefit him marginally more than any other Democrat to the extent that he can get NEW AA voters to the polls, since they already break 9-1 for the Democrat. But you correctly emphasize a key component to this election, and that is voter fraud. We’ve gotten used to the inner city shenanigans of the last two elections, but with Obama, who will rely heavily on the urban vote in November, I believe that we haven’t seen anything yet when it comes to these tactics. An unprecedented number of inner city polls will be ordered to remain open past the specified closing time; we will see high numbers of reports of voting “problems” and “irregularities” in inner city polling places; and outright fraud will be rampant. The Dem machine is hungry this year, my friends (sorry John), and I fear that Obama’s inner city strength will be perfect cover for them to pull out all the stops in the very places where it will be hardest to detect and prove.
May 10th, 2008 at 3:04 pm
Michigan is certainly winnable, it would be difficult for Mr. McCain to lose the Presidency if he carries Michigan.
May 10th, 2008 at 3:05 pm
We’ll see how Michigan goes, the ineffectiveness of the Democratic governor, and a damaging scandal involving the Democratic Mayor of Detroit may prove to be a blessing for the GOP.
May 10th, 2008 at 3:34 pm
I grew up in Michigan in the 80’s too. I ain’t voting for Global Warming Guru McCain.
May 10th, 2008 at 3:37 pm
dubai, chill out. Obama is a Global Warming Hack, too.
McCain will have four years, then we get someone new.
May 10th, 2008 at 4:14 pm
The Dems in Michigan will cheat enough to add two percentage points to their total. In the real vote, McCain would have to win by at least that much.
Regretfully, a majority of the Jewish folks around Detroit will vote for Obama, not McCain. I would bet that at least 60% of them will go Obama. (Basically, these people would vote for Stalin for president if he were pro-abortion.)
Somebody should poll McCain/Romney in Michigan to see if Romney would make a positive impact there. If so, there’s a strong case to be made that Romney should be the VP. (Personally, I’m hoping for Jindal, while Romney is my second choice.)
May 10th, 2008 at 6:48 pm
“McCain will have four years, then we get someone new.”
The same could be said for Obama…
May 10th, 2008 at 7:25 pm
As a Michigander, I agree. I think that it will be a fight but McCain has a reasonable chance of winning. However, with economic concerns being so on the minds of us Wolverines, McCain will need to hit that area hard. He needs someone on the ticket like Romney who brings economic prowess to things.
May 10th, 2008 at 7:29 pm
If the battleground this election year consists of states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, and Ohio, say hello to President McCain. Yes, Romney would help…the economy will be the main issue, and Romney knows it better than anyone. Also, he grew up in the upper Midwest and has major connections there.
May 10th, 2008 at 8:45 pm
> “Yes, Romney would help…the economy will be the main issue, and Romney knows it better than anyone.”
To whatever extent the economy is the issue, Romney would hurt more than help, because of his background as a venture capitalist. He’d be very easy to paint as “one of those guys who send jobs overseas.”
Unfair, but fairness has nothing to do with it.
May 10th, 2008 at 9:49 pm
“while Barack Obama is the candidate of the dead, John McCain is the candidate of the living.”
Seems a little extreme, not to mention ironic given the age difference and Obama’s comparative speechtime pep. Does race42008 really need to resort to this sort of propaganda soundbyte with no substance? This instance of empty parallel structure wouldn’t be out of character in an Obama speech.
And I don’t know where you’re getting your information, but it seems very strange to focus on the Jews in the Detroit area rather than the Arabs. We have the largest Arab-American population in America, about 300,000 Arabs, compared to 95,000 Jews. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB115349618081313680.html
But yes. MI is definitely in play.
May 10th, 2008 at 10:04 pm
I don’t think you’re right BobH about Romney hurting in Michigan. I don’t know if you noticed or not but the crowds in Michigan were absolutely going crazy at the rallies the last few days before the primary. Of all the states, the enthusiasm was greater in Michigan, and I don’t think it was the white collar voters making the noise.
There is no way to prove it, but I sincerely believe Romney would enable McCain to not only win Michigan, but I believe he would help in many, many other states.
May 10th, 2008 at 10:16 pm
#12,
Sorry to deflate you a bit Illinoisguy but the crowds for Rudy were very large and quite enthusiastic days before the FL primary, and we saw how well that worked out.
May 10th, 2008 at 10:35 pm
Sorry to remind you Jonathan but Mitt creamed the competition in Michigan. That’s the state we’re talking about here!
May 10th, 2008 at 10:40 pm
That’s good b/c Romney would be no help in the South. (Although with Obama as the Dem standard-barrer, the South will remain solidly for McCain including Florida.)
May 11th, 2008 at 8:10 am
The Arab/Muslim vote has indeed been underappreciated in Michigan, as it was in Virginia in 2006. Virginia, especially Fairfax County, has a large Arab population, and they went overwhelmingly for Webb. If just a few percentage points more of the Arab vote had voted for Allen, he would still be a senator–and maybe even the GOP presidential candidate.
May 11th, 2008 at 12:44 pm
Yeah IL Guy - crowd size means exactly squat. Obama had bigger rallies in Pennsylvania (22,000 at PSU) than Mitt could have ever dreamed of. And Barry lost by 10 points to Hillary.
May 11th, 2008 at 2:05 pm
If McCain wants to win, all he has to do is say something complimentary, and true, about Hillary, and her supporters will come to his side faster than you can say “Barack, who?”. Like, “Hillary was a strong candidate who never gave up, even under attacks on her from within her own party. She’s a true fighter who believes in America.” And say it at a few debates.
Bingo - all of her supporters who are now changing to Independent, and Republican, and/or who are considering sitting home or voting for McCain, will do just that sit home or vote for McCain.
These people are in those swing states- I know - I’m in PA.
May 12th, 2008 at 10:47 am
Adam, why are you still shooting down Mitt? He’s on your side now!
May 15th, 2008 at 5:53 am
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