GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
10:30 – And with that, I’m spent.
10:22 — And in an election that actually mattered, we lost another House seat. As I said earlier today, I don’t think this is the end of the world that it will be heralded as. But it ain’t good, either.
10:19 — With 53% in, Clinton is clinging to a 65-28 lead. But almost all of Obama’s good counties are completely in now. Kanawha is only about half in, and Berkeley is only about 3/4 in. Past that, I’m not sure that there are any counties out there where he’ll break 30% of the vote. In fact, I’m not sure he’ll break 20% in a lot of them. She might get her 40-point win, and will probably pick up about 125,000 votes or so. Probably enough, but too late.
10:01 — With 42% reporting, Obama’s best counties are quickly fading away, while some of Clinton’s haven’t begun to come in. She is inching toward a 40-point win, as he drops to 28% of the vote. In the meantime, in Mississippi, Davis has moved into a virtual tie with Childress. But almost all of DeSoto is in. What remains in the remaining 130 precincts? I say Tate county is the one to watch. If Davis can hold on there, he can win.
9:46 — 294/462, and it is down to a 2,000 vote Childers lead. DeSoto is only about 1/3 in, but the most Democratic counties are in as well. Clay County and Benton county will be heavily for the Democrat, but who knows what happens in the remaining counties. All are among the most heavily Republican in the district, but like I said, this is a regional struggle, not an ideological one.
9:44 — 30% in, and Obama is below 30%. Wheeling and Monongalia are almost entirely in. There’s some Charleston and Huntington precincts out there, and the DC exurbs still haven’t started reporting. Then again, neither have a lot of very rural counties.
9:30 — About half of the precincts are in, and it is a 54-46 Dem lead. DeSoto is still mostly out, as is Tate county, all of which are from the Western portion of the district, which the Republican represents. This race had broken down along geographic lines, and it is showing up in the returns.
9:24 — 20% in, 63-30 Clinton. Who is that other 7%? So far he has broken 40% in only one county, and 30% in only 5. And look at some of those Southern counties: Logan (84-10), Wyoming (79-14), Boone (80-13)!
9:22 — With 153/462 in, it is down to 53-47. Lot of DeSoto county precincts still out there. Davis is going to need them to pull this off.
9:16 — About 1/4 of the precincts in, and Childers is still up by ten points. He’s absolutely crushing Davis in the non-DeSoto counties. Not looking good for Davis.
9:11 — Meanwhile in WV, we’re up to 12% of precincts reporting. He isn’t winning a single county. She is winning Boone county 80-13. A 30-point win is looking about right, especially with over half of Monongalia county in, and her winning by 30 points in Wheeling.
9:08 — DeSoto is starting to trickle in, and Davis is winning big there. The margin is down to 55-45. But Wicker won Lee county 69-31 in 2006. This year, it is going Dem about 55-45. I’m inclined to call this race for the Dems, but there are still a lot of precincts out there.
9:05 — The most Dem counties in the district are Tishomingo, Tippah, Panola, Marshall (which Wicker actually lost in 2006), Lafayette, and Benton. The most important R county is DeSoto, which is also the major population center, though it by no means outweighs the others. So far, Childers is winning all the reporting counties, and only 1/3 of Marshall is in. Nothing from DeSoto. This could be bad.
9:01 — Apparently with 10% in, the Dem is winning by 20 points in MS-01. Not a great sign.
8:59 — Seriously, I could have counted more ballots by hand myself at this point.
8:44 — Kanawha County is coming in, which accounts for Clinton’s dip, along with 13% of Monongalia (UWVA). The interesting thing is that Obama’s best counties are coming in first. It’s probably all downhill for him from here.
8:38 — With 15% in, Wheeling is 62-30 Clinton. She might get her 70%. Again, this is one of the counties where Obama had a chance to keep it within 20.
8:34 – And the secretary of state of Mississippi is named Delbert Hosemann. What a great night this is going to be . . .
8:29 — I’d make a crack about the results being slow because West Virginians need to use fingers and toes, so they can only count ballots 24 at a time, but that would be rude (and I’m from Oklahoma, so yes, I get to make jokes like that. Same reason Chappelle can make black jokes).
8:27 — First results from Fayette county come in, with 19% in, Hillary is up 58%-34%. If this holds, it is bad, bad news for Obama. This should be one of his better counties.
8:21 — Apparently they are counting results by hand . . .
7:54 — Still no actual results.
7:36 — Well that was quick. CNN calls WV for Clinton. Looking at the exit poll, Clinton basically beat him among everyone.
7:23 This will be a bloodbath, but the only question is: “how close.” I’m guessing somewhere along the lines of 65-35 Clinton. Obama counties to watch: Cabell (Huntington), Putnam, Kanawha (Charleston), Raleigh (Beckley), Monongalia (U.W.Va.), Ohio (Wheeling), and Berkeley/Jefferson (DC Suburbs).
May 13th, 2008 at 6:28 pm
Sean,
Thanks for the updates man your doing a great job at this. I’m putting my money on 68% to 32%, but she will win at least by 35% IMO.
May 13th, 2008 at 6:29 pm
It will be pretty sweet if she can break 70%.
May 13th, 2008 at 6:30 pm
MSNBC is running a populr vote count (without Florida or Michigan) and a similar delegate at the bottom of the screen during commercials.
They even run a graphic showing the number of delegates Obama needs to clinch the nomination.
MSNBC is really in the tank for Obama.
May 13th, 2008 at 6:30 pm
BREAKING NEWS!! HILLARY HAS WON WEST VIRGINIA!!!
May 13th, 2008 at 6:34 pm
Kavon,
If the tendency continues for Obama to overperform in exit polls in states with heavily white populations, he might just hit 70%.
May 13th, 2008 at 6:34 pm
The exit poll is showing about a 33 point win for Clinton.
May 13th, 2008 at 6:37 pm
Not only that I think the exit polls might but underespenting Woman tunrout out as they have the Gender split only 51-49. I will not be shock if it 55-45 as the night goes on and Hillary wins bigger.
May 13th, 2008 at 6:39 pm
EricB,
What exit poll were you looking at?
May 13th, 2008 at 6:42 pm
It would worry me that West Virginia has practically no Catholics- I mean so far, Obama’s been losing blue-collar Catholics by 30-35 points, but probably did around 10-15 points better among other blue collar voters. But, here we have Obama losing blue-collar Protestants whites by 30+ points.
May 13th, 2008 at 6:42 pm
WOAH!
What an upset!
May 13th, 2008 at 6:43 pm
It would worry me if I were Obama I mean.
May 13th, 2008 at 6:43 pm
The CNN exit poll. Just by seeing that it has Clinton winning 71% of women and 59% of men. Obama winning 37% of men and 27% of women. Women and men according to their poll are each about 50% of the electorate. Averaging 71 and 59 for Clinton, you get 65%, and averaging 27 and 37 for Obama you get 32%, so their poll has it 65-32.
May 13th, 2008 at 6:44 pm
An interesting point just made on Fox: California is looking pretty dumb for no longer having its primary on June 3.
May 13th, 2008 at 6:44 pm
And dont forget, no Democrat has won the White House without winning West Virginia since 1916, and i think it would be safe to say that Obama is not going to win West Virginia if he’s the nominee….
May 13th, 2008 at 6:45 pm
Yea and i think that those exit polls numbers will increase for Hillary as the night goes along and i bet she wins 68% to 32%.
May 13th, 2008 at 6:47 pm
West Virginia isn’t the solid Democratic state it once was. I do think that Obama is probably the underdog for November though.
May 13th, 2008 at 6:48 pm
Bryan, no democrat has won the WH without winning Washington, DC either and Hillary lost there by 51.
Lots of historical trends are going to get broken this year.
Metro, good point about CA. Perhaps they’ll hold back next time. Or, maybe Hillary can argue that since CA is such an important and big state that it should get to vote twice as the contest is still close.
The key for me tonight is the overall turnout. I think if Hillary can net 200,000 votes, that’s very good news for her.
May 13th, 2008 at 6:49 pm
If exit polls are right, it is actually a bad night for Mrs. Clinton. She needs to win real real big, not just big.
May 13th, 2008 at 6:51 pm
I’m watching the popular vote too. I think Clinton can overtake Obama in the popular vote after Puerto Rico votes. I’m looking forward to the Democratic Party saying that the votes of Puerto Ricans don’t count. That’s only going to further alienate Hispanics. Hillary needs to stay in this through June 1st so that happens.
May 13th, 2008 at 6:57 pm
EricB, we’re solidly Democrat in WV. Government here has been almost a one-party affair longer than the commies have run Cuba! But our Dems bear little similarity to their coastal and urban blue-state counterparts. Dems here are almost all pro-life, pro-gun, and quite religious. Ours are among the Dems that Barone called “Jacksonians.” They don’t connect with urban liberals much.
May 13th, 2008 at 6:58 pm
Alright, time for American Idol…
May 13th, 2008 at 7:01 pm
Jim,
Yea but Hillary would win D.C in a general election, and Obama would not win West Virginia, that was the point i was making.
May 13th, 2008 at 7:04 pm
Ohio Joe,
Well most polls have showed Hillary winning anywhere between 29 and 35%, and the exit polls i’ve seen has her winning by about 33%, so as John McCain likes to say, that’s big my friend!
May 13th, 2008 at 7:10 pm
Where be the results?!
May 13th, 2008 at 7:11 pm
Not for West Virginia. This is a state made for her.
May 13th, 2008 at 7:11 pm
Alex,
That’s what I’m wondering too. Where are the results???
May 13th, 2008 at 7:15 pm
Results will start coming in at approx 8:20 pm eastern
May 13th, 2008 at 7:21 pm
Also just to let you guys know in case your interested, voting has just ended in Tupelo Mississippi for that hotly contested Congressional race, and you can go to the website wtva.com to get live results of that race as they come in, and its sure to be a long night for that race for sure.
May 13th, 2008 at 7:23 pm
Who says California made a mistake in pushing up the Primary?
On the Republican side, the race was actively contested by McCain and Romney. Romney’s strategy for surving Super Tuesday and pulling out the nomination rested on a split allocation of delegates in California. When McCain won almost every district, he dropped out. California therefore had one of the biggest roles in the nation in deciding the Republican nominee.
As for the Democrats, it settled nothing, although it DID give Hillary an unexpectedly strong showing, and gave her a narrow lead among delegates at the end of the day. Had California held out till June, Obama would have a 200 delegate lead, rather than 160 delegates. The calls for Hillary to drop out would be even greater. And — unlike WVa, Kentucky, Oregon & Montana — California is simply not a state you can campaign in without a strong air war, which requires more money than Hillary would be in any position to afford at this time. If Hillary still had to campaign in California, she would likely have
thrown in the towel by now.
May 13th, 2008 at 7:25 pm
58 to 33 so far, i think the Obama counties are coming in right now.
May 13th, 2008 at 7:25 pm
Now 56 to 36 with less than 1% reporting.
May 13th, 2008 at 7:30 pm
EricB wrote: I think Clinton can overtake Obama in the popular vote after Puerto Rico votes. I’m looking forward to the Democratic Party saying that the votes of Puerto Ricans don’t count.
That is the reason the DNC and the MSM have already written Clinton’s obituary. They are well aware that a popular vote victory for Hillary sends this straight to the convention, which would cause irreparable harm for the Democrats this election cycle.
CBS’ Bob Schieffer ran with the anti-Puerto Rico meme Sunday morning on Face the Nation:
SCHIEFFER: Is that her–is that her strategy now, that she’s the candidate of white people?
Mr. McAULIFFE: No, absolutely not. She’s reaching out to everybody, it’s what we’ve done from
the start. But, you know, we still have seven million Democrats yet to vote. We have West
Virginia this Tuesday; we’re up 20-plus points there. We’re up in Kentucky, we’re up in Puerto
Rico. Seven million Democrats yet to vote. Probably four or 500 delegates yet to be chosen. This
race is very close. We have had 35 million people vote, Bob, 16.6 million for Hillary; 16.7
million for Senator Obama.
SCHIEFFER: But you’re counting into that Michigan and Florida…
Mr. McAULIFFE: Yep, mm-hmm.
SCHIEFFER: …which the party rules say cannot be counted. You also mention Puerto Rico.
Mr. McAULIFFE: Mm-hmm.
SCHIEFFER: Puerto Ricans won’t be voting in the presidential election.
Mr. McAULIFFE: Well, first off all, Puerto Ricans, as you know, are United States citizens.
They have served in our military services. They’re clearly part of the political process.
SCHIEFFER: Well, whether it’s right or wrong, they’re not voting in the presidential election.
Mr. McAULIFFE: But they’re voting in the primaries and they’re United States citizens, so, I
mean, they certainly should vote in the primaries and I think there’s movement that they want to
become a state and vote in the general election. But as we say, Michigan and Florida, two and a
half million people voted. The Rules and Bylaws Committee will meet on May 31st and they will
determine their status. I believe they’re going to include them. But no matter what happens, the
DNC controls delegates, they don’t control the popular vote. These people voted, they were
certified at the county level and the state level. There’s no question they voted. The issue is about the delegates, but they voted.
Later in the show, Politico’s Jim VandeHei echoed Schieffer’s diminution of Puerto Rico…
SCHIEFFER: Well, Terry McAuliffe says it’s doable. Do you think it’s doable?
Mr. VandeHEI: Oh, no. I mean, she’s in it to–she’s in it because the only way that she has a
chance of winning it. But if you talk to anybody in the Clinton camp, they know they need a
miracle. They need a scandal, they need an imponderable. They know they can’t just win it by collecting enough popular votes and counting in Puerto Rico.
May 13th, 2008 at 7:45 pm
Alot of Obama counties are coming in first so Hillary’s lead will only get bigger and bigger.
May 13th, 2008 at 7:46 pm
The pace is really slow.
May 13th, 2008 at 8:01 pm
YAWN!
May 13th, 2008 at 8:02 pm
Maybe Obama can get some of his fund-raisers together to purchase West Virginia some vote-tabulating machines. They’ll like him more, then.
May 13th, 2008 at 8:24 pm
Is there a link to the Mississippi returns?
May 13th, 2008 at 8:28 pm
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2008/by_county/MS_Page_0513.html?SITE=MSJADELN&SECTION=POLITICS
Answer my own questions.
May 13th, 2008 at 8:30 pm
I want to pitch a theory to some of you guys - what is Clinton is staying in just to get the VP spot?
Even if Obama clinches before the nomination, there are still going to be a ton (nearly half of the elected ones) of Clintonians. Is she thinking about actually pushing for the Veep spot?
I’m not an expert, but to win the VP spot, she would only need all of here delegates and a few of Obama’s super delegates to win it. VPs, like Noms, are selected by a floor vote - just with all of the delegates uncommitted. Are there enough supers out there who like the “Dream Ticket” to overcome any opposition Obama has?
May 13th, 2008 at 8:34 pm
Here in Raleigh there’s no need for that. But it would help to speed the process of counting the decedent votes…
May 13th, 2008 at 8:41 pm
Wow. Was just looking at the interactive CNN map for WV. Hillary absolutely drubs Bama in coal country — counties to the direct south and southwest of Charleston — by 80 to 20 percent or so (12 percent reporting).
May 13th, 2008 at 8:44 pm
WV coal country: Boon, Lincoln, Logan, McDowell, Mingo, Wayne, Wyoming.
May 13th, 2008 at 8:48 pm
51-49 in Missippi 1. some Desota and all of Tate still out.
May 13th, 2008 at 8:49 pm
Sean,
Have you seen the returns for Lee County? Bush took that county 66-33 back in 2004 and yet Childers leads Davis 58-42 now there. That’s a stunning shift. The MS-01 has a PVI advantage of 10. The fact that the GOP is losing this seat along with the other two solid Republican seats we lost in special elections. It’s especially bad since the NRCC spent 20%-30% of its cash reserves trying to defend the seat.
May 13th, 2008 at 8:59 pm
less than 1000 votes is most of Desota is now in. Nothing from Tate.
May 13th, 2008 at 9:04 pm
LJ,
The race split along geographic lines. The Democrat was from Tupelo, which was the rural center of the state. The Republican was from DeSoto, which is basically Memphis suburbs. That’s how the race was framed — including the primary race — and that’s why those districts are flipping. See also my post from earlier today about what the “true” PVI of the district is.
May 13th, 2008 at 9:06 pm
Davis is still within 2000.
May 13th, 2008 at 9:07 pm
Will this race be a repeat in November or is tonight the night for this congressional race?
May 13th, 2008 at 9:11 pm
Before tonight Hillary was 113K down in the popular vote including FL and MI. With half the votes in, Hillary has cut Obama’s lead in half. She may have more total votes than Barry after tonight.
May 13th, 2008 at 9:14 pm
The AP has called it for Childers. Ugh.
May 13th, 2008 at 9:15 pm
AP calls the race for Childers.
Huckabee talks straight on MSNBC — says the Republican brand is damaged, that McCain can’t run on the Republican brand, that MS is a bad sign, and that if GOP candidates ride the elephant down Main Street, the elephant will get shot out from under them.
May 13th, 2008 at 9:15 pm
Sean, your info on this stuff is encyclopedic.
Quick general overview of WV demographics:
- Coal country (which I’m a little too familiar with) is low income, low education, relatively speaking, because the only job future is in extracting resources.
- Rust-belt is the best way to describe all the counties along the Ohio from the northern panhandle down to Huntington (just west of Charleston): union heavy, blue-collar and aging.
- Woods is most of central WV up to the VA border — with more farming in the southern portion.
- Eastern panhandle — at the tip it’s mostly DC bedroom communities.
- My favorite is the wilderness country covering the “armpit” region” around the joint of the eastern panhandle and points south: Greenbrier, Monroe, Pendelton, Pocahontas, Preston, Randolph, and Tucker counties.
Wonder if Shelly Moore-Capito will manage to survive the Dem onslaught on her House seat? I guess Clinton’s loss will not help Capito’s eventual opponent there.
May 13th, 2008 at 9:19 pm
November is going to be a bloodbath. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if we end up with 250 Democratic House seats and 58 Democratic Senate seats. John McCain is the only firewall preventing an unchecked Democratic government in the fall, and if he wins, it’s only because the Democrats nominated their weaker candidate, one who can’t even break 30 percent in Middle America, and because John McCain isn’t viewed as a real Republican.
May 13th, 2008 at 9:25 pm
#49 Ugghhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! You cannot count 300K votes in MI and give zero to Obama. That logic is just totally unrealistic.
May 13th, 2008 at 9:26 pm
“maybe Hillary can argue that since CA is such an important and big state that it should get to vote twice as the contest is still close.”
Fantastic. Why hasn’t Hillary suggested this yet? She’s suggested most other options…
May 13th, 2008 at 9:26 pm
Talk radio is ruining America.
-Trent Lott, June 2007
Well said Mr. Chester Trent Lott Senior
May 13th, 2008 at 9:27 pm
Steve, I’M not counting them. Hillary Clinton is.
May 13th, 2008 at 9:30 pm
Steve (#54) In Hillary land, logic is a voluntary tool. Realism is also voluntary. Any metric that shows Hillary has a chance is the only metric that matters…
May 13th, 2008 at 9:35 pm
Dave,
Exactly. I think that the fact that McCain is even holding his own right now is because he is viewed as an independent in Republican clothing. I have several Democratic friends that despise his position on Iraq and social issues, but they just can’t help but like the guy. Unfortunately, everytime he tries to deviate from the GOP orthodoxy (read: instant electoral death), the base conservatives keep staging rearguard actions in order to force him back in line. Each time that happens, it becomes increasingly likely that Obama will capture the center of the spectrum, especially if he chooses someone like Ted Strickland as his veep. I have been very skeptical that McCain should choose Lieberman as his running mate, but after seeing the results of these special elections and the general toxicity of the Republican brand within the country, Lieberman might be the only viable option.
May 13th, 2008 at 9:45 pm
Nice job, Sean.
May 13th, 2008 at 9:48 pm
Any guesses as to what the media will say about Obama not even getting 30%???
May 13th, 2008 at 9:50 pm
LJ,
Yeah, I think the reason that McCain/Lieberman makes sense is that it sees Obama’s post-partisan nonsense and raises him. Obama is supposedly running as someone who can’t be placed on the current political spectrum (which is a load of hogwash) and as someone who is trying to move the Democratic Party forward, not just left or right (more hogwash). That’s the narrative that his enablers (read: Andrew Sullivan) are pushing.
As you stated, McCain is already viewed as something other than a Republican. He’s spent the past eight years pissing off every Republican in the country, after all. Lieberman, too, is viewed as something other than a Democrat. He was basically pushed out of the party by its own voters. To the average voter who maybe watches MTP and a few other political talk shows, but who doesn’t spend every waking moment analyzing politics, McCain and Lieberman are representative of two basically Independent senators who only nominally belong to either major party and who would prefer to take the best ideas from both parties when it comes to governing.
So a McCain/Lieberman ticket would neutralize Obama’s post-partisan gimmick by presenting voters with a ticket comprised of two men who have basically been rejected by both major parties. The election would basically be the post-partisan v. the anti-partisans. And it would be a whole lotta fun to watch.
May 13th, 2008 at 9:51 pm
Eric, I doubt the media will care. They are shifting into General Election mode.
May 13th, 2008 at 9:53 pm
DaveG, that would be ok if the base didn’t revolt. I suspect they would.
Meanwhile, if Obama is worried about the bipartisan vote, he needs to have a chat to Bloomberg about being VP. That will help balance the loss in the Jewish vote too.
May 13th, 2008 at 9:54 pm
Can I ask a dumb question? Where the hell is the other 7%? Edwards? Byrd?
May 13th, 2008 at 9:55 pm
Asked about expectations yesterday, Obama said that the Clinton camp had claimed Hill could get an 80-20 victory, and the O camp would hold her to that. Right now I’d be surprised if she cracks 70 percent (and some counties had wind-related power outages, forcing them to use paper ballots today — these won’t be counted too soon).
My guess is that with less than 70 percent, she has a hard time finding further financing. So she might actually have to take O’s offer to retire her debt and exit the race. I wouldn’t put it past her to soldier on, but I’m guessing the money situation is critical at this point.
Observation: McCain needs to make himself into the preferred choice of rural and suburban America. Obama’s biggest negative, in my view, is his urban connection, which does not translate well in fly-over country. I think that distinguishes him above all else.
I’m just not too sure how J-Mac should go about this. Perhaps by drawing attention to his military service, where he would have served among his countrymen from all parts of the country? This would be one way to contrast distinctly against Obama’s past at Université Ivoire and then in inner city Chicago. Cap’n Trade doesn’t seem like a great idea, though.
May 13th, 2008 at 9:56 pm
Edwards got 7%. Amazing. If he’d stayed in he’d have split the white blue-collar vote and Clinton would have been dead long ago…
May 13th, 2008 at 9:57 pm
AdamPSU: The electronic ballot choices were Hill, Bam, and Edwards. You could also leave the selection blank.
May 13th, 2008 at 9:57 pm
Mark, did you read Swampland on TIME? It mentions that under part of the law, Clinton may have to pay the $20m in debt that she has. That would be nasty, even if she’s worth $100m…
May 13th, 2008 at 9:59 pm
Clinton is probably going to gain about 140,000 popular votes on Obama from West Virginia. Not too bad. She’ll probably take the lead in popular votes after Kentucky votes. I honestly thought she’d win WV by 30 points. It’s even higher than that.
May 13th, 2008 at 10:00 pm
John Edwards took 7 percent of the vote! Get this! Hillary beat Obama by about the same ratio as Obama beat Edwards! Unreal!
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/elections/2008/results/wv/401999/full.html
May 13th, 2008 at 10:01 pm
McCain/Lieberman is really growing on me.
I’m not so sure the base would revolt because Lieberman would clearly not be in a position to define the party or ever be its nominee. Also, as someone said before, everyone loves a convert. Mild version of Zell.
May 13th, 2008 at 10:05 pm
Eric how are you counting the popular vote totals? Your numjbers are loco…
May 13th, 2008 at 10:11 pm
As far as delegate counts go, lets do some math (using WaPo):
Clinton wins her heavily favored Kentucky & Puerto Rico by 80-20%.
Clinton wins states favored by Obama (Montana & SD) by 60-40%
Obama wins Oregan 60-40%.
Clinton picks up two thirds of all remaining superdelegates.
End result? She still loses by 20 delegates. Now she’s unlikely to win Kentucky or PR by anything like 80-20. She’s very unlikely to win Montana & SD (certainly not by 20%). And the superdelegates at the moment are all going in one direction.
She is toast. Total burnt out toast.
May 13th, 2008 at 10:11 pm
Count FL, Count Clinton as 330K in MI and Obama as 0.
Turnout in WV was less than I thought it would be. I thought it would be around 500-600K. It’ll be quite a bit less. But she’ll still get around 70%. Without Edwards, she’d be close to 75% or perhaps higher.
KY should be similar, but it has a higher black population. I don’t know if Edwards is onthe ballot. I still expect her to get around 65% or so.
After KY and OR, a big victory in Puerto Rico could still give her the lead in the popular vote and be enough to have her take it to the convention.
May 13th, 2008 at 10:13 pm
In fact, if you drop her superdelegate pickup to 55%, she can win Kentucky, Montana, SD & PR by 100%-0% and she still loses…
May 13th, 2008 at 10:14 pm
Jim, counting MI as 330k-0k is only possible in Hillaryland…
May 13th, 2008 at 10:18 pm
fine, count all the uncommitted for Obama. That’s a total of a net 400K for Hillary from the two states.
After tonight, Obama’s popular vote lead is around 675K or so. Can Hillary make up 275K in KY, OR, and Puerto Rico?
Yes, she can!
May 13th, 2008 at 10:19 pm
Is Sean O watching CNN right now???
May 13th, 2008 at 10:20 pm
John King is drawing a huge circle around Appalachia, on top of the Hillary vs. Obama results.
May 13th, 2008 at 10:42 pm
As far as delegate counts go, lets do some math (using WaPo):
Clinton wins her heavily favored Kentucky & Puerto Rico by 80-20%.
Clinton wins states favored by Obama (Montana & SD) by 60-40%
Obama wins Oregan 60-40%.
That’s a, uh, interesting prediction.
May 13th, 2008 at 10:43 pm
2008 Democratic Popular Vote
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html
Obama’s lead, excluding Florida and Michigan, is down to 633K.
If the vote from Florida is included into the calculation, but Michigan’s results are not, Hillary is then just 338K behind; still well-positioned to win the popular vote and, to the chagrin of the DNC and MSM, poised to press on to the convention.
May 13th, 2008 at 10:50 pm
Also, tonight Nebraska had a dem primary, apparently. It didn’t count for anything, but the results are still noteworthy. The last results I saw had Obama winning 50-46.
In Feb, he won their caucus 68-32.
Obama is very lucky he gamed those caucuses and ran up such big margins. I doubt he’d do that well if they had had primaries and there a good number of those states that he’d probably lose today if both candidates actually campaigned there.
But this is another example for Hillary to use about how unfair the caucuses were. In WA the difference was Obama went from 68 to 51. In NE from 68 to 50. In TX from 57 to 47.
After tonight, it’s apparent she’s going to the Convention. You could tell by what she and McAulliffe said.
May 13th, 2008 at 11:03 pm
What do folks think about Chuck Todd’s notion that Obama should be able to win 42-43% of the vote in Kentucky with only a little bit of effort, and perhaps could close within 9-10% with serious campaigning? I just heard him say that 15-20 minutes ago, and it strikes me as utterly insane. If Barack Obama gets 35% in Kentucky after this 41-42% drubbing tonight, I’d be absolutely stunned.
May 13th, 2008 at 11:08 pm
Looks like Hillary’s gonna get her 40-point win.
May 13th, 2008 at 11:11 pm
Hillary will come out tomorrow saying she has 50K more votes nationally than Obama.
May 13th, 2008 at 11:11 pm
Obama wins only 53 percent of WV Democratic primary voters in the general:
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=Nzk2OTNjMTZkNjAzMjQwNzBmY2NiMmI0MzcwNDY4ZDU=
Hello, President McCain.
May 13th, 2008 at 11:19 pm
84. Utterly insane. I think Obama will get 35%, maybe even 40%, but not much more. I mean, he’ll do okay in Louisville and Lexington, but the rest of the state will look like Southern W.Va. and Indiana (and Northern TN) (and SE MO) (and Southern IL, without the hometown hero boost Obama got).
May 13th, 2008 at 11:19 pm
While it’s not the argument I would advise Hillary to make, she, nevertheless, has once again passed Obama tonight in the popular vote…that is, when Michigan (including Obama’s goose egg) and Florida are included in the tally. Clinton, at present, “leads” by over 14,000 in total votes cast.
Obama’s lead, excluding Florida and Michigan, is now down to 608K.
If the vote from Florida is included, but Michigan’s results are not, Hillary finds herself just 314K behind Obama.
May 13th, 2008 at 11:33 pm
I just re-did Jay Cost’s popular vote calculator with WV plugged in. Assume Hillary wins by 35% in KY and 25% in PR, and loses by 10% in MT, SD, and OR — then she wins the popular vote by 66k if FL is included.
May 13th, 2008 at 11:40 pm
Oh, did anyone see George Allen on Hannity and Colmes earlier tonight? Boy did we dodge a bullet. He looks like he’s gained 10-20 pounds, and his always meager speaking skills have deteriorated into sheer incoherence. You’d think he just drunk a vat of alcohol, given how slurred his speech was (and I’m not referring to the accident). McCain looks like a wonderfully positive development given that, sans one unlucky word, we probably would have ended up with Allen.
May 13th, 2008 at 11:40 pm
(and I’m not referring to the accent).