May 14, 2008
Electoral Map: 5/14
With a slew of new state polls coming out from Rasmussen and Research 2000 along with a few random other state polls, here is the newest electoral map update for the McCain vs. Obama general election matchup (light red or blue are states led by 5% or less):
Movement since the last map
Nevada: light blue –> light red
New Mexico: dark blue –> light red
Texas: light red –> dark red
North Dakota: light blue –> light red
Minnesota: light blue –> dark blue
Michigan: tie –> light blue
Ohio: dark red –> light red
Indiana: dark red –> light red
Pennsylvania: light red –> light blue
New Jersey: light red –> dark blue
Massachusetts: light blue –> dark blue
New Hampshire: light red –> dark red
North Carolina: dark red –> light red
3/31/08 Map: 297-224, McCain over Obama (with 17 tied)
5/14/08 Map: 274-264, McCain over Obama
This update could be seen as the west coming home for McCain (with the pesky exception of Colorado) and the upper midwest/rust belt moving to Obama. The chance to pick up Pennsylvania and New Jersey has also moved a bit out of reach for the time being. Still, this map gives McCain a very narrow 274-264 victory over Obama.
http://race42008.com/2008/05/14/electoral-map-514/trackback/
May 14th, 2008 at 10:48 am
We could still lose New Mexico and win under these circumstances.
Or win PA but lose OH.
The math looks pretty good for us, actually.
May 14th, 2008 at 11:24 am
Actually - I don’t think that’s true. 274 - 5 = 269. That means we lose with Dem control of congress. Right?
May 14th, 2008 at 11:36 am
Adam, you are correct. Especially since Congress will be going more blue in November.
Same with Nevada. If Obama picks off one of those two states, we’d have to pick off PA, WI, MI, or keep CO to make up for it - much harder for us than them, I’d wager. I’d say even though we’re currently ahead, the map might actually slightly favor Obama at this point.
Luckily, it will change a hundred times between now and November.
May 14th, 2008 at 11:59 am
It’s very possible that McCain can win Pennsylvania and/or Michigan. Winning either one of them would almost clinch the election for McCain. I don’t know much about Pennsylvania, but I live in Michigan. Michigan has been losing population, and most of the people that have left have left the Detroit Metro Area and other Democratic strongholds (places like Flint). The Democrats get much of the blame for the bad state of the economy here and they are seen as very corrupt. Kwame Kilpatrick, the mayor of Detroit, is being removed from office and probably headed to prison. Governor Jennifer Granhold has been governor for six years and is seen as incompetent. I would count on the black vote in Detroit carrying Obama to victory in Michigan either. John Kerry won more than 90% of the black vote in Michigan and still barely eeked out a victory over Bush here four years ago. It’ll be hard to Obama to do much better than Kerry, and arguably he’ll do worse among the rest of the state’s electorate. The most recent poll I’ve seen out of Michigan was Rasmussen giving McCain a one point edge in the state. Michigan is going to be close.
May 14th, 2008 at 12:08 pm
Funny thing is - for all this talk about Obama being a “map changer” it is looking less and less likely to happen with each passing day.
I think it’s probably a 50/50 election at this point - which is great considering where we all thought we’d be a year ago. It’s too bad that we don’t only need 269 though, that we we’d be able to afford a defection of NM or NV too.
If I had to guess I would say that NH goes blue ultimately. I think the state has become too anti-war and cultural issues won’t save the day there. I like our chances in PA but depending on it given Philly and Rendell is a fool’s errand. I wouldn’t count on MI or WI either - and certainly not MN.
I feel better about Ohio because a liberal black Democrat isn’t going to wash in Appalachia and Cleveland is not Philadelphia. Plus the state as a whole is a few points to the right of Pennsylvania anyway.
I don’t think Obama will take VA because the military vote near VA Beach will help offset gains with Barry in the north - and 8 points is tough to overcome. Plus Appalachia will tend to McCain strongly.
Obamaphile talk of NC and ND and NE is just a pipe dream at this point. So is NJ for the GOP. I feel very good about FL.
If McCain could shore up CO that would help immensely.
Just my two cents.
May 14th, 2008 at 12:10 pm
Oh yeah - and IA is going DEM. McCain want kiss ass with the farmers and isn’t as much of a so-con as Bush.
May 14th, 2008 at 12:10 pm
McCain won’t kiss*
May 14th, 2008 at 12:40 pm
McCain should put Romney on the ticket to help with Michigan and Nevada.
May 14th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
Let’s try not to hijack every thread into a “pick Romney for VP” thread.
May 14th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
No no no no no enough with Romney!! Okay? This Romney nonsense is just getting old. If McCain picks him then he picks him. otherwise enough with the bloody debate about Romney.
May 14th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
The light blue states on the map, MI, PA, and WI, collectively contain 48 EVs. Add those to the GOP column and McCain ends up with 322 EVs. It will be very easy for McCain, running an insurgent campaign with a running mate like Lieberman or equivalent, to take those states. There are millions of Democratic voters and Democratic leaners in those states who won’t vote for Obama. If you won’t take my word for it, just look at last night’s election, where 75 percent of Democrats in WV voted against the presumptive Democratic nominee.
The notion pushed by some in the comments on this blog that there are no more Reagan or Scoop Jackson Democrats is just silly. That basically describes every working class and many middle class voters in the Rust Belt. Only in the South have those voters become Republicans. In the North, they’re still pro-America Democrats and Independents. They won’t vote for Obama.
May 14th, 2008 at 1:26 pm
How do Nebraska and Maine’s wacky electoral distribution systems factor into this?
May 14th, 2008 at 2:45 pm
Despite all the talk about this being a “change election,” the electoral map (other than NH and CO at the moment) isn’t any different than it was in 2004.
May 14th, 2008 at 2:47 pm
Will,
Nebraska and Maine split up their electoral votes by Congressional District, which - far from being wacky - is, as far as I’m concerned, a model that every state ought to adopt when dividing their electoral votes.
The funny thing is that NE is usually so dark red and ME so dark blue that the CD EV’s have never in history, as far as I know, gone contrary to the statewide vote. With Maine remaining dark blue so far this election season, that is likely to continue to be the case. However, it will be interesting to watch polls to see if Obama continues to do well in Nebraska. If so, he might be able to pick off one or two EVs from the state.
May 14th, 2008 at 2:49 pm
In fact, SUSA’s Nebraska poll shows McCain leading 45-42 with Obama picking up two of the state’s five Electoral Votes. So there you go.
May 14th, 2008 at 3:12 pm
12, 14:
Maine has only been doing that since 2002 or so I believe. Bush came very close to winning Maine’s 2nd District in ‘04, which is where I grew up. If you look at the wikipedia entry for the 04 election there is a neat map that shows vote breakdown by county, and the easternmost county in Maine was one of only two in the state to go for Bush, and that’s where most of the 2nd District’s population is.
Having grown up there, trust me when I say that while 1 EV might not mean that much, that’s a vote I would give to McCain. There’s no way in hell that downeast Maine votes for Obama. McCain, on the other hand, is exactly the sort of Republican that plays well in Maine. Bear in mind that Maine has two moderate Republican senators, one of whom (Sen. Snowe) has the highest approval rating of any senator in the country (79% the last I knew).
May 14th, 2008 at 4:33 pm
All of the red states are still red except for Colorado, which is heading in that direction. All of the blue states are still blue, except for New Hampshire, which was red in ‘2000. Change election? Not so much.
May 14th, 2008 at 4:36 pm
Oops. Didn’t notice Iowa turning blue, which could be temporary, or a reaction to McCain voting against the ethanol program. Michigan could more than make up for it.
May 14th, 2008 at 11:23 pm
Re: 15, 16
So a possible scenario = a 3-2 split in NE and 3-1 in ME?
Thus, if the democrats get what appears to be 268 EVs, they may have won, by taking it to 269 and then congress. Vaguely possible, as well; imagine this map with the Dems taking OH and NM or NV, and the GOP with PA.
May 15th, 2008 at 2:38 am
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May 15th, 2008 at 5:08 am
I’m going to go out on a limb and guess that neither NE nor ME will split their votes. NE is solidly red and ME is trending toward solidly blue.
May 16th, 2008 at 7:18 pm
Obama will probably lose Florida. It’s down to the big three all over again: Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan. Those seem to be the decisive states again.
-Mac