GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
- John McCain 50% (48%)
- Barack Obama 41% (43%)
- John McCain 53% (57%)
- Hillary Clinton 36% (32%)
Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)
- John McCain 57% / 42% (+15%)
- Barack Obama 42% / 46% (-4%)
- Hillary Clinton 40% / 58% (-18%)
Survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted May 14. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted April 7 are in parentheses. In 2004, President Bush won 61% of the vote in Alaska. Today, just 39% of the state’s voters say that President Bush is doing a good or excellent job. Republican Governor Sarah Palin earns much better reviews-69% good or excellent, 9% poor. Republican Senator Ted Stevens is trailing by two percentage points in his bid for re-election. Stevens attracts 45% of the vote while Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) earns 47%. A month ago, it was Stevens with 46% support and Begich at 45%. The only Democratic presidential candidate to ever win Alaska was Lyndon Johnson in 1964.
May 17th, 2008 at 9:01 am
I’m worried about that AK Senate seat - Alaska is solid Red, a long-term incumbent shouldn’t be in danger.
I’m relatively optomistic about our chances to hold Senate losses to 1-3, but not if we lose AK.
May 17th, 2008 at 9:15 am
I have to agree with you on that ACT.
May 17th, 2008 at 1:18 pm
These numbers make me feel somewhat better about Alaska this year.
I’m not as worried about Ted Stevens as I had been earlier, for a few reasons. After all that’s been thrown his way, he’s still fairly popular. There has been a wave of political scandal here in Alaska, with several state reps in prison now, and more probably on the way (including Ted’s son Ben). Don Young, our only Congressman, is so disliked by even many Republicans that he’s more likely to be the one voted out - quite possibly (if all goes the way I’m hoping) by our GOP Lt. Governor in a primary. But Stevens just keeps muddling along. He’s extremely popular among Native Alaskans, who vote in high numbers, since he’s brought quite a bit of DC money to the Alaskan interior where many Natives live. He’s still popular (especially in contrast to Young) among urban GOP folk in Anchorage and the few other cities here, since much of the federal transportation and education $$$ arrived due to his decades of work. His opponant, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, is somewhat popular in Anchorage but little known elsewhere, and doesn’t really have the track record needed to replace the GOP’s longest serving Senator. Finally, as Alaska prepares to celebrate it’s 50th anniversary, Stevens’ years of dedication to the state - he was directly instrumental in the statehood movement in the late 50s, then served in the state house before becoming Senator in 1968 - has been highlighted on the news and in statehood celebration displays. This can only reinforce in voters’ minds all the things they like about him. So I’m not as worried as I was about his reelection.
It’s not all good, though, for the Senator. McCain is not well liked here, due mostly to his opposition to ANWR. (Stevens, to his credit, is the state’s biggest supporter of drilling.) Obama, who campaigned here heavily on TV and radio during our primary season in February, is surprisingly popular among energized Alaskan Democrats. McCain, on the other hand, finished at a distant fourth. This is what may hurt Stevens this year - Dems are excited to vote in Alaska for the first time, well, ever.
May 17th, 2008 at 2:22 pm
Is there a website that is keeping a tally of the state by state poll numbers and their respective electoral college numbers?
I am curious as to how the electoral college would go as of today.
May 17th, 2008 at 8:59 pm
Good question Tom.
For a non yank could someone please list the top 10 marginal states and how many electoral college points they have.
Thanks.
May 17th, 2008 at 9:14 pm
As of this moment, here are the closest states:
Pennsylvania (21) - Obama +5
Colorado (9) - Obama +3
Wisconsin (10) - Obama +2
Michigan (17) - Obama +1
North Dakota (3) - McCain +1
Indiana (11) - McCain +2
New Mexico (5) - McCain +2
Nebraska (5) - McCain +3
Ohio (20) - McCain +3
South Carolina (8) - McCain +3