The Candidates
I won’t go as far as to predict a Clinton win tomorrow in Oregon, but I think it will be much closer than expected, I’ll say 52-48 Obama.
The last minute polling has been trending Clinton’s way. A Portland Tribune poll released on May 11 had a 20 point Obama lead. A Suffolk University poll released today has the race down to only 4 points, a 45-41 margin for Obama. ARG also has it close, but no one trusts them (including me). People think of Oregon as a very liberal state, and it is. However, demographically, an Obama blowout is just not in the cards. Hillary Clinton won California big. She won Hispanics really big, but she also narrowly won whites. Obama only won Washington’s primary 51-45, but he won the caucus big. You are likely to see in Oregon what you saw in New Hampshire. There are a lot of white liberal voters who may feel guilty about not voting for Obama, so they will publicly say they support him but vote differently. Oregon is even more ripe for that type of thing since most votes are cast by mail, the ultimate secret ballot. Obama will get a big vote out of the cities, but look for Hillary to hold her own in the Eastern part of the state. I also don’t think Obama’s recent comments about keeping the thermostat down will play out there.
Kentucky looks to be a big Clinton win but a little less than West Virginia. I’ll give her a 31 point margin as opposed to West Virginia’s 41. Though Hillary still stands no chance of getting the nomination, I think tomorrow’s Oregon and Kentucky results will make the Obama people shake.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:14 am
Nah. I think Obama will win Oregon by 10.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:19 am
Alex, even 10 is a far cry from Hillary’s 41 points in West Virginia. It could be as much as 10 though, but I will go out on a limb and say 4.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:54 am
I think the Oregon gap will be greater than 4. 10 is somewhat of a majic number. In a way, Obama does not have to win Oregon at all, but a 10 plus win would avoid an sticky situation.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:10 am
I am reall getting sick of Obama.
Um. Yeah. Fuck You Senator Obama. If you don’t want your wife to be an issue in the campaign then she shouldn’t be on the trail. I’m really getting tired of Obama thinking he can dictate the terms of the debate. Ayers and Wright are “distractions” as are Obama’s feeling about rural voters. Yet its ok for Obama to use the “politics of fear” when talking about McCain’s stance on social security. “Guilt by association” is out of bounds when talking about Wright and Obama yet its perfectly fine for His Holiness to McCain to Bush no matter how much of a stretch. Seriously. Where does this guy get off?
May 19th, 2008 at 11:11 am
*to tie McCain to Bush.
I don’t think I’ve ever hated someone in politics more than Barack Obama.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:14 am
Yes, Mr. Obama is starting to sound like a cry-baby.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:19 am
Here are some interesting stats about Kentucky, Puerto Rico, and Oregon. Among US states/territories sorted by population, they appear consecutively, with respective populations of 4.2 million, 3.9 million and 3.75 million. The truly fascinating part is that whereas Kentucky has 1.6 million registered Democrats and only slightly over a million Republicans (out of about 2.8 million voters), Oregon has only .8 million Democrats and about .6 million Republicans out of about 2 million registered voters overall (and Puerto Rico has 2.4 million registered voters). Both Kentucky and Oregon have closed primaries, whereas I believe in Puerto Rico anyone can vote. You can guess where I am heading. It is significantly likely that Hillary Clinton will get a majority of the popular vote, not including Florida and Michigan at the end of this process (and tomorrow a 10 point loss in Oregon will likely be equal to a 5 point difference in Kenucky). What is funny is that by pushing the “Hillary is over” theme, the media lovers of Obama are actually helping her in a way. She gets to run without any negative attacks; she gets to bask in the glow of “unexpected victories” and “political earthquake” stories. I for one am willing to bet that she gets the nomination if she wins the popular vote. At the minimum she will lead a battle royale at the convention. I cannot imagine that Obama will be viewed as the legitimate nominee by her supporters if he wins with (a) delegates from caucuses, (b) a loss in the popular vote tally, and (c) disenfranchising Florida and Michigan.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:23 am
He’s acting like a spoiled little boy. And after Michelle Obama opens her trap while campaigning on his behalf, what she says is fair game.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:23 am
Sorry to threadjack. I just saw that and became completely enraged.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:24 am
But, delegates are not elected by national popular vote. The popular vote agruement only goes so far.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:25 am
And by the way, though I support Hillary Clinton, I would vote for McCain over Obama. He is a detestable character who has has constantly run for the next office without ever trying to achieve anything for his voters or his party. Even now, note that he is not fighting for some signature Democratic party issues; he is only interested in promoting himself as the saviour of the country.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:25 am
Sean O,
Leon Wolf over at Redstate agrees with your scenario from last night.
http://redstate.com/stories/archived/monday_open_thread
May 19th, 2008 at 11:26 am
On “The View” one of the ladies said that W’s grandfather, Prescott Bush, did business with the Nazis. Over the weekend there was an historian on a local show talking about the ancestry of the candidates and he said McCain’s family during the civil war “conspired with the North.”
This thing is going to get pretty nasty.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:28 am
“on a local show talking about the ancestry of the candidates and he said McCain’s family during the civil war “conspired with the North.”
Obama would be a FOOL to make an issue of this. People aren’t going to be lectured on “guilt by association” racism from the likes of Obama, not after knowing what we’ve learned in the last six weeks.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:28 am
The “pledged delegates” are not. But the 800 superdelegates can use the popular vote as a criteria. Many of them truly dont want to be led by another Clinton, but equally, do they want to be led by a Rev. Wright/Bill Ayers acolyte who is also the loser (if it transpires) of the popular vote and has gotten no support from the blue-collar workers?
May 19th, 2008 at 11:32 am
Sanjeeb makes a good argument.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:40 am
Boy, Adam is mad today!
May 19th, 2008 at 11:41 am
I am sorry. I am not usually like this. I’ve just had my fill of Obama dictating who gets to say what while he gets free reign and the media dutifully follows along.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:53 am
I think Leon reads here.
Back on the topic of the thread, the problem with using polls is that Oregon is a mail-in primary. So people have been voting at different points in time for quite a while.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:00 pm
Adam, Bill Clinton used to do the same thing. That was part of what got Republicans so mad at him.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:00 pm
Sean, is it entirely mail-in or can people vote tomorrow too?
May 19th, 2008 at 12:03 pm
Does anyone know if Oregon is similar to Washington demographically? If so, the margin of Obama’s victory in the primary there is likely not to be too large (based on the Washington primary). I think Hillary earlier did better with the Democratic party base overall, but much worse with independents and Republicans (whose interest in Obama is likely declining now) in some open primaries. Oregon’s is a closed primary.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
Entirely mail-in.
http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/oregonian/index.ssf?/base/news/1211001907107530.xml&coll=7
May 19th, 2008 at 5:52 pm
Prediction: Hillary will win Oregon by double digits and win the nomination.
May 19th, 2008 at 7:04 pm
JA - Just wanting to know if you are serious. I think an upset is possible, but double digits?