Poll Alert: SurveyUSA New Mexico General Election Poll

23 Responses to “Poll Alert: SurveyUSA New Mexico General Election Poll”

1. Aron Goldman Says:
   May 20th, 2008 at 9:39 am

   Here’s the link to a good graphic that summarizes the findings from this survey:

   http://www.surveyusa.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/vp-nm.png

2. Sean Says:
   May 20th, 2008 at 9:48 am

   I can only see myself voting for 2 of those 4 tickets and they are McCain/Romney and McCain/Pawlenty

3. IR-MN Says:
   May 20th, 2008 at 9:53 am

   #1, good graphic. I can’t believe Edwards helps that much. If the dems had brains, he should’ve been the nominee. Still, it’s strange the Huckabee helps McCain more than Pawlenty. Maybe NM is fiscally moderate?

4. Jonathan Says:
   May 20th, 2008 at 9:53 am

   So New Mexico isn’t lost yet. I’m curious why they didn’t do Obama/Richardson though.

5. Sean Says:
   May 20th, 2008 at 9:56 am

   Was this before or after Huckabee’s Obama comment?

6. voter Says:
   May 20th, 2008 at 10:02 am

   What is interesting is that Huckabee does better in New Mexico — which is certainly not one of his states. I’d like to see the stats on Virginia, Missouri, Iowa, Arkansas (with his huge evangelical and right-to-life support) — and even Ohio and Michigan (with his populist streak).

   SUSA shows it’s Huckabee first, Romney second and then Pawlenty — that’s exactly the order in which I would hope McCain views the VP candidates.

   P.S. I know all you Huck haters really want to make that NRA comment be the death knoll, but trust me, it’s yesterday’s news. And for the poster who asked, the NRA was on the 16th — this poll was taken from 16th thru 18th

7. PabloZed Says:
   May 20th, 2008 at 10:03 am

   Clearly this poll like every other early poll reflects name recognition, explaining why Edwards, Huckabee and Romney fair better. The exception is Pawlenty, who I can’t imagine is well-known in NM.

8. MattyN Says:
   May 20th, 2008 at 10:06 am

   So, basically, if Obama picks Obama we’re screwed in NM for some reason. That’s disappointing.

   Also, I wonder why they chose not to include Richardson as a possible running mate.

9. MarkG Says:
   May 20th, 2008 at 10:08 am

   Seems to me that Edwards enjoys greater name recognition than any of the other Veep choices. That is easy to understand considering the overwhelming press coverage lavished on the Dem primary. Part of this is, logically, because the GOP primary has been over for a long while. But I think it’s also standard-issue media bias. Having written the GOP off as all washed up, they’re now making it into a self-fulfilling prophecy.

10. DaveG Says:
    May 20th, 2008 at 10:10 am

    I looked at the internals last night and I seem to remember finding that Huckabee does so well because he does better than all of the others among Democrats. So it’s not the Religious Right that’s making the difference, and as I and others have argued, the Religious Right has largely disbanded anyway, many becoming a new Religious Left.

    Huckabee is appealing to Democrats who don’t mind voting for a religious dude and who like his views on economics and foreign policy (which are left of center in many cases).

    Lieberman actually brings fewer Dems to the ticket than Huckabee, but Huckabee brings fewer Independents to the ticket than Joe.

    So much for the notion that Lieberman is a liberal.

    Anyway, I’m sure that there are a lot of voters who like Huck for the simple reason that the GOP base does not like him, but it’s hard to imagine Huck getting through the campaign without being tarred by his own past statements, from his comments on AIDS patients to his comments on pointing a gun at another presidential candidate.

    Incidentally, Edwards’ strength shows what would have happened if the Dems nominated Mark Warner, who is the guy that everyone thinks Edwards is.

11. MattyN Says:
    May 20th, 2008 at 10:13 am

    #8…if Obama picks Edwards. Wow, I’m a fool…

12. OHIO JOE Says:
    May 20th, 2008 at 10:30 am

    Very interesting in deed, While New Mexico may be somewhat of an important swing state, it is not necessarily a typical state. It would thus be interesting if these patterns hold in other states. While, the VP is important, I really wonder if the VP candidate can swing several states from one candidate to another.

    DaveG:
    With respect, I’m not sure whether one poll of New Mexican voters can determine whether or not Mr. Lieberman is is Liberal or not.

13. CBL Says:
    May 20th, 2008 at 10:32 am

    “Was this before or after Huckabee’s Obama comment?” …conducted May 16th-18th, 2008. Huckabee made the joke on the 16th… and did considerable media “apologizing” all three days.

    Huckabee’s numbers are to be expected… he is better known than the others and well liked.

    Edwards?!? I’m going to say the same thing. All the other democrats are complete unknowns to the general population. Except, I don’t know anyone that likes Edwards… I think even socialists must detest his hypocrisy… but then if they were intellectually able to detect hypocrisy, they wouldn’t be socialists now would they?

14. OHIO JOE Says:
    May 20th, 2008 at 10:35 am

    CBL:
    Good points, Edwards is certainly not my favourite character, but I realize that he is popular in some circles.

15. Adam Says:
    May 20th, 2008 at 10:52 am

    MattyN,

    No worries. Obama is so stuck on himself that he probably would pick himself as his own VP if he could.

16. Aron Goldman Says:
    May 20th, 2008 at 11:37 am

    Here is a summary of the results from PA, again using the same potential running mates:

    http://www.surveyusa.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/vp-pa-fixed.png

17. Aron Goldman Says:
    May 20th, 2008 at 11:38 am

    Here are the full results from Pennsylvania:

    http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=162d4baa-59af-4ec5-9d9b-eb6e658e86c5

18. BobH Says:
    May 20th, 2008 at 11:48 am

    > “No worries. Obama is so stuck on himself that he probably would pick himself as his own VP if he could.”

    Or Michelle.

19. OHIO JOE Says:
    May 20th, 2008 at 11:59 am

    Thanks for the links Aron, very interesting.

20. Clarence Claus Says:
    May 20th, 2008 at 12:07 pm

    DaveG points out an interesting divide in the Democratic party. For some Democrats, religion is anathema. They wouldn’t want anything to do with someone they perceived as really religious. There are other Democrats who don’t mind if someone is really religious. Obviously Jimmy Carter was able to win their party’s nomination, but many secularists were uneasy with him.

21. jim Says:
    May 20th, 2008 at 12:51 pm

    Huckabee seems to do best in PA in terms of bringing democrtas and independents. The difference he makes with independents vs Romney and Lieberman is fairly significant. Lieberman actually results in higher #s among Republicans and Conservatives than Romney which is interesting.

    But looking at all of them, the main advantages Obama has are his 90%+ of the black vote and his 2-1 lead in Philly and the suburbs, and his big leads among women. That’s going to be pretty tough to overcome regardless of who the VP is. There’s nothing McCain can do about Philly. He’ll get crushed there. There might be some things that can help him in the suburbs and with women.

    That said, McCain has room for improvement. He’s only at 70% of Republicans, Bush was at 90%. McCain is losing the white vote by 2, Bush won it by 10.

    I wouldn’t necessarily count on PA to go red this year. The demographics and breakdowns are tough for Republicans. Especially this year.

22. Illinoisguy Says:
    May 20th, 2008 at 12:58 pm

    Its surprising to me how unpopular Rendell is as VP for Obama in his home state.

23. Illinoisguy Says:
    May 20th, 2008 at 1:16 pm

    Sorry, I misread the Rendell pairings.