May 20, 2008

Race 4 2008 Kentucky and Oregon Results Open Thread

I will, of course, defer to any frontpage poster who wishes to live blog the results.

by @ 4:43 pm. Filed under Announcements
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60 Responses to “Race 4 2008 Kentucky and Oregon Results Open Thread”

  1. Sean Oxendine Says:

    As fair warning, I have to take a plaintiff’s deposition in the morning, so any frontpager who wants to give it a whirl will not hurt my feeling.

  2. Paul8148 Says:

    89-10 from the first votes for Clinton.

  3. jim Says:

    Unfortunately for Hillary, it looks like Obama will win by enough in OR to blunt any popular vote gain or momentum she’d take from KY.

    If she wins in KY say 65-30 and Obama wins OR say 56-44, that doesn’t really help her any. She needs at leadt a 100,000 net from the popular vote tonight to have Puerto Rico make a difference.

  4. Paul8148 Says:

    63-31. Obama is carrying Fayette so far.

  5. Paul8148 Says:

    29% of Jefferson country in and Hillary is carrying it. Obama likely has to win it to by less than 20%

  6. Paul8148 Says:

    Opps. I mean Obama has to carry Jefferson Countray to come within 20% of hillary state wide.

  7. econ grad stud Says:

    I just voted. The election officials handed me (a Republican) a Democratic ballot in a closed primary.

    I pointed out their mistake and they said they’d been handing out so many Democratic ballots, it was just habit.

    I wonder how many Republicans went along with these kinds of mistakes and voted in the Democratic primary.

  8. Matthew E. Miller Says:

    CNN just called Kentucky for Clinton. They said that she may win by 30 points.

  9. Alex Knepper Says:

    Fox said Clinton will probably win 2:1.

  10. Paul8148 Says:

    Hillary up 2 to 1 in exit polls.

  11. Matthew E. Miller Says:

    Looking at the exit polls, it looks about 65-29.

  12. fredo Says:

    Anyone seen any OR exits?

  13. fredo Says:

    BTW, are there actual polling sites in OR with the “mail-in” ballots?

  14. Matthew E. Miller Says:

    Obama could still lose Jefferson County; i.e, he might win only 1 county in Kentucky.

  15. Paul8148 Says:

    I think the suburns use to come in late from Jefferson as Ann use to come from behind and win on election night.

  16. Matthew E. Miller Says:

    I’m betting Hillary goes up 90-120k in the popular vote after tonight.

  17. jim Says:

    whatever she gains tonight in KY though will likely be cancelled out by OR

    But still, Obama’s exit #s are pretty bad in KY. The extra 6 pts he got from the black vote will make it look better than WV, but those #s are pretty bad for the dem nominee to get in his own primary after he’s already won the nomination.

  18. Alex Knepper Says:

    Canceled out by Oregon? No way!

  19. Matthew E. Miller Says:

    jim,

    Nah. Kentucky is expected to have a few more total voters then Oregon, and she’s going to win by 32 points in Kentucky, whereas he’ll only win by 10-15 points in Oregon. She’ll gain around 200k in Kentucky, he’ll gain max 80-100k in Oregon.

  20. Adam Says:

    For two weeks the media, led by Chris Matthews and Keith Olberdork have been proclaiming that Hillary can’t win. Yet people still are coming out in droves to vote against him.

    What does this mean now that we are five months away from the real deal?

  21. Bryan Says:

    Adam,

    It means that Obama has alot of work to do my friend, and its great news for John McCain.

  22. Matthew E. Miller Says:

    It occurs to me that Hillary could have engineered a sort of “Dean Scream” moment, that would send folks fleeing from Obama. Just plant someone in the crowd to start chantining “Stop Barack! Stop Barack! Stop Barack!” How’s that for a visual to send super-delegates into paroxysms; a sea of white Democrats chanting Stop Barack…

  23. Matthew E. Miller Says:

    chanting*

  24. jim Says:

    Matt,

    I actually read today that OR is expecting turnout of over 1 million, much higher than KY. We’ll see.

    As for your Stop Barack plan, I think even Bill and HIllary have some shred of dignity left. Maube not, though. What if Hillary came out to her victory speech to the strains of Dixie?

    My ideas was that she copy from that Greek play The Birds and have all her female supporters announce that they’re withholding sex from their husbands or boyfriends until the superdelegates give her the nomination. Obama would be finished within a few days.

  25. Adam Says:

    Aren’t there many more Democrats in KY than in OR though?

    KY is 50 percent Democrat. They’re not Kerry/Kennedy/Obama Democrats - but that’s still a hell of a lot of Democrats. And since KY has 8 EV’s to OR’s 7 I don’t see how OR turnout could be more than that of KY - unless I am missing something.

  26. Matthew E. Miller Says:

    jim,

    Lol. But, that’s sort of my point. Hillary could have won this thing, in a number of ways, by now. But, she would utterly obliterated Obama. Instead, since he’s been the likely nominee (post Wisconsin), she’s been remarkably restrained. She didn’t say much about Ayers, and even her surrogates only harped on the issue for a day or two. She literally gave one interview addressing Wright and never talked about it again. Her last few speeches have always made a prominent point of noting that the Democrats must come together to beat John McCain. Logically speaking, the best way for her to win the nomination is to utterly alienate her supporters from Obama; instead, Obama’s managed to do that himself, and most of what Hillary’s done seems neutral (on that point at least) or actually favorable for Barack. Even her new line (”everyone is trying to control you, and stop democracy” is aimed at the media and the pundits. I have never believed that Hillary Clinton wants Obama to lose if he wins the nomination, and the last few weeks have made this more abundantly clear. For all the talk of Clintonian mudslinging, she’s been awfully tame.

  27. Ajay Says:

    On #25. the electoral college was from 8 yrs ago? i don’t know if that explains the discrepancy for sure..just a hypothesis.

  28. jim Says:

    BTW, I wonder if the media will make note of the fact that Obama’s money machine seems to be drying up.

    He’s gone from 55M in Feb, to 40M in Mar, to today announcing 31 M in Apr.

    That’s a 40%+ drop from his Feb #s.

    Is a steep decline in fundraising the sign of healthy and strong nominee. Especially since the media has called him the winner for a few months and he’s gotten the best press coverage of any candidate ever.

    If this was a republican nominee losing money like this, you’d never hear the end of it.

    At this rate, he should be broke by the 4th of July.

  29. Adam Says:

    Well look at that. Obama’s got two counties in KY. He can add those to the 5 counties he won in Ohio and the 7 he won in PA. With such a small number of counties won in these Appalachian states he ought to show some good will and thank them individually by name. It would only take about 30 seconds :-)

  30. Aron Goldman Says:

    53% of Democratic primary voters in Kentucky believe Barack Obama shares Reverend Wright’s views.

  31. Matthew E. Miller Says:

    Oh so Hillary’s up 35% now and there’s probably less then 5k votes left in Jefferson, but most of Hillary’s areas are in too, so that 35% probably won’t narrow or get any wider.

  32. Adam Says:

    Haha. Those 53 percent need to go to Vegas and spend some time talking to the locals about it.

  33. Adam Says:

    208K lead for Hil in KY with 89 percent counted. Puerto Rico could really be a big deal.

  34. econ grad stud Says:

    It looks like Hillary will gain 250,000 votes in Kentucky.

    I doubt Obama gains more than 100,000 votes in Oregon.

  35. jim Says:

    PPP has him up by 18, the avg of the polls is around 15 or so. I think he nets around 100-125K. Hillary nets around 100-125K on the night.

    After Puerto Rico, she’ll be ahead in the popular vote regardless of MI.

    I want to be in America. Ok by me in America. The fact that candidates will actually campaign in Puerto Rico is completely absurd. Just the notion of the former President of the United States and his now candidate wife holding up Puerto Rico as a contest that actually matters is a sight to behold.

    Although, I’m sure after his months of campaigning in places like WV and KY, Bill will apprecoate the sand, the sun and the surf down in San Juan.

    Prepare Senoras, el perro grande es en el pueblo

    Hillary para siempre, Obama nunca

  36. Adam Says:

    93 percent in and Hil leads by 224k and 36 percent.

  37. JayPe Says:

    Perhaps Hillary will campaign in Puerto Rico on a promise to make it the 51st state. That will help boost turnout, and she’s shown she’s prepared to promise anything at this point in the campaign…

  38. BobH Says:

    Hillary’s only running seven points behind McCain in Kentucky. Huckabee, et al, put up as good a fight as Obama.

  39. Sanjeeb Says:

    Kentucky has 1.6 million registered Democrats (about a million Republicans) out of about 2.8 million voters, Oregon has only .8 million Democrats (about .6 million Republicans) out of about 2 million registered voters overall. Both Kentucky and Oregon have closed primaries. Kentucky had an about 43% turnout today. For a similar turnout percentage in Oregon, a 10% margin for Obama only cancels out 5% for Hillary from kentucky.

  40. hawthr Says:

    When does polling close in Oregon?

  41. JayPe Says:

    Incidentally, did you notice that McCain only got 72% of the vote in Kentucky? Bit of a worry, there seems to be some hard core Huckabee & Paul voters STILL out there.

    Not as much of a worry as Obama’s 30%, but then he does have an active campaigner against him.

  42. JayPe Says:

    So Hillary gains 250k in the popular vote, her last remaining card to play to the superdelegates.

    Her problem is that the party seems to have switched off, and are no longer listening to her. The superdelegates are moving to Obama, no question.

    Her argument at the moment is:
    “I have more popular vote, if you don’t include those nasty caucus states that voted for Obama, if you do include November non-voters like Puerto Rico, and you do include Florida where neither of us campaigned, and Michigan where Obama was foolish enough to do as the DNC suggested and took his name off the ballot”.

    It does sound a bit like:
    “if you only include states where I won, I’m winning”

  43. JayPe Says:

    jom, his drop (!) to $31m is not a major concern I don’t think. It comes after a tough period in the campaign, and is perhaps a sign that his most fiery supporters have maxed out (having given a few hundred in the months & years previous).

    Of course, that will go once the general kicks in and he starts collecting funds from those zealots who have already maxed out primary-wise. And from the Clinton faithful. So I expect he’ll be just fine, cash wise.

    Plus, Montana is not the most expensive state to spend advertising dollars. New Jersey it ain’t…

  44. John Mark Says:

    Did anybody notice that only 50% of the voters in the Democratic primary say they’re going to vote for Obama in November.

  45. Sean Oxendine Says:

    41. Been through this before:

    http://race42008.com/2008/04/29/about-mccains-72-in-pennsylvania/

  46. Jonathan Says:

    They didn’t call Oregon right away for Obama. Could it be closer than the exit polls suggest?

  47. BobH Says:

    Fox called it 7 minutes after the polls closed.

  48. Paul8148 Says:

    He up 20% but most resturns from his stonghold. Hillary could get it closer to 10% before the night is over as the rural votes come in.

  49. Sean Says:

    Uhhh Fox just showed a statistic that Obama has raised $31.3 million in April.I don’t know how McCain is doing fundraising wise but he’s got an uphill battle in that department.

  50. BobH Says:

    Almost all the votes in at this point are from western Oregon, so the current 60-40 is certainly going to narrow.

  51. Paul8148 Says:

    Well the good news for McCain is alteast the Republicans will willing to send in the ballots from Republican countries as he is outpace the Dems combine in several of them

  52. BobH Says:

    48% of the vote in, and the vote total is 400k, so ~800k seems like a good guess. His edge is dropping steadily (now 14.6) and most of the east is still not reporting, so my guess is that he’ll win by about 10%, at most 12%, so 80-100k. Hillary then would net 150-170k — a pretty good day’s work.

    Using Jay Cost’s estimator, it now looks like, counting all the votes except Michigan, she will win by just over 160k.

    Geez, I’m loving this.

  53. Clarence Claus Says:

    I just noticed in the exit polls that Kentucky Democrats overwhelmingly support a gas tax holiday, and Oregon Democrats overwhelmingly oppose it. The dirty secret among liberals is they want the gas taxes to be high because they think people drive too much anyway. It must drive them crazy when Hillary talks about all these bread and butter issues like she did tonight.

  54. Bryan Says:

    John McCain has raised 18 Million in the month of April, which is his best fundraising month yet but still has a ways to go. Hillary Clinton raised 22 Million in April

  55. Clarence Claus Says:

    I gave Clinton a 31 point margin in Kentucky. She got 35. I gave Obama only a 4 point Oregon win. It looks like he’ll get about 10. I wasn’t that far off I guess. I made both states closer than I should have. I don’t think Obama’s colossal loss in Kentucky is totally about race. That’s part of it, yes, but it’s also message. Hillary Clinton cares about working people who have to pay high gas taxes. Obama just says they ought to stop driving as much and turn the heat down. It is Obama’s elitism, much more than his race, that produces his poor results in Appalachia, and this leaves him very little margin of error in the electoral college against McCain, and that’s being charitable of me!

  56. Clarence Claus Says:

    I just read the story about Mark McKinnon leaving McCain’s campaign because he doesn’t want to work against Obama. McKinnon didn’t mind working against Romney, Huckabee, Giuliani, and Thompson. That basically means he likes Obama better than he likes some of his fellow Republicans. That is the type of thing that angers conservatives about McCain, and rightfully so. Bush had a lot of mushy people around him too. That guy Dowd is now for Obama.

  57. MWS Says:

    Did anybody else notice that the Democratic nominee carryied single digits in almost all the mountain counties of eastern Kentucky?

  58. jim Says:

    Is anyone watching MSNBC with their live band? Primary coverage with a band?

    They just had a Clinton spokeswoman talking about 600 million voters in Michigan, and how there’s 4 million voters in Puerto Rico. Then when one of the panel said the whole point of Super Delegates was to steal the nomination from someone who obviously can’t win, the Clinton flack goes “exactly”.

    Hillary’s in this till the convention folks.

    I don’t get people who say she’ll drop out after June 3. After June 3, there’s nothing to drop out from. There’s no more primaries or caucuses or anything. What is she going to drop out from?

    At that point, she’ll just get ready to go the convention like Reagan did in ‘76. Maybe she’ll try something like naming a VP to swing some delegates. Make her case to the Supers. But after June 3, there’s no point in dropping out. The race is over at that point.

    BTW, think about this. After FL and MI are seated, and before Aug 25, if Hillary can persuade just 1 Obama delegate from each state to switch to her, they’d be about tied in terms of delegates by the convention.

    I’m sensing a floor fight. Multiple Ballots. Who knows what will happen.

  59. Clarence Claus Says:

    Jim is exactly right. Ordinarily, once someone has the momentum, they win the remaining states or at least hold their own. Kerry did it in 2004. Bush did in 2000. To only get single digits in certain counties when you are already the inevitable nominee is a disaster. Obama can’t beat John McCain. To take the other extreme, in the town of Cambridge, Mass. where Harvard is located, Hillary Clinton still got like 30% of the vote. The exit polls show all sorts of vulnerabilities for Obama in the general election, even in Oregon. His worst group against Hillary there was elderly.

  60. Heath Says:

    Jim get a grip Clinton is out within 3 weeks and 600 million people in Michigan hardly.

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