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John McCain officially clinched the Republican nomination on March 4th, following primaries in Ohio and Texas. Although not cemented until that night, McCain was truly the undisputed nominee by the time the polls closed on Super Tuesday and his campaign had secured a string of key victories. Despite the fact that the Senator lacks a true regional base and that his rise depended upon the failure of the strategies of his fellow contenders, John McCain has been the presumptive standard-bearer of the Republican Party now for the better part of three months. This election season, one that seemingly would go on forever, is down to just over five months until judgment day.
As talk heats up over possible running mates for the McCain ticket, it is vital to discuss the timing of his potential selection relative to September’s Republican National Convention. Tradition has come to allow the party that currently controls the White House to hold its convention second of the two major parties. The Democrats, hoping to separate their event from the ongoing Summer Olympics, pushed their 2008 convention to late August (25th-28th). For better or for worse, the GOP, not wanting to lose the political and financial advantages that come with “going second,” plan to hold the latest major party convention in history from September 1-4.
Let us look at recent national tickets: Listed below are the dates the nominee announced the selection of his running mate and corresponding dates of the convention…
Besides the Edwards selection in 2004, every running mate in recent presidential history has been announced days before the party’s national convention. Obviously, many presumptive nominees have choices in mind throughout the primary season and into early summer. History, tradition, and party politics, however, have made it the norm to publicly introduce running mate selections only days in advance of their official nomination at the convention.
John McCain should not rush his vetting process or hastily announce a potential Vice President that could hamper his campaign. Yet, as late spring turns to summer, McCain will have spent a significant time running largely unopposed, free to close the enormous fundraising gap and heal frayed ties with key groups within the Republican Party. He is well aware that his future running mate will play an important role in the outcome of November’s election. Voters must be assured that the 71-year-old Senator backs himself with an able and vibrant leader who can hold the Oval Office in case the worst scenario befalls the President.
We already know that 2008 is an election wildly different from ones we have witnessed in recent years. John McCain will only win when he successfully paints Barack Obama as an out-of-touch liberal, a man too far to the left to be trusted with the reigns of power. Furthermore, McCain must embrace a center-right platform, one that sufficiently acknowledges the failures of the Bush administration, while presenting a brand of conservatism rooted in reform and efficiency.
In this light, with all the factors stacked against his candidacy, John McCain could make the high-risk, high-reward decision of announcing his running mate long before the September convention. The campaign could put out a short-list in mid-June to measure public opinion and general reaction. Introducing a running mate as early as July could solidify the McCain ticket as one ready to lead and draw a striking contrast to a Democratic establishment still trying to marry disgruntled Hillary Clinton supporters to Obama’s cause.
No matter our loyalties or personal opinions, it would be surprising if John McCain was not at least mulling over the following people: Florida Governor Charlie Crist (he of the key primary endorsement), former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (don’t count him out yet), former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee (yes, even after his Obama remark), Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman (if not for Vice President, than certainly Secretary of State or Defense), Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty (long the front-runner and an all-around reliable choice), former Pennsylvania Governor and Homeland Security Director Tom Ridge (a senior advisor and close friend), former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (could he secure Michigan and Nevada?), and South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford (young and reformist nature).
As always, the identity of the man standing beside John McCain to complete the Republican ticket will influence the course of the general election. However, now, more than ever, the timing of McCain’s selection may play a meaningful role in his chances for November.
May 21st, 2008 at 2:48 am
If anyone reading this has any connections to Huck, here is a better line he could have used during his NRA speech instead of what he did say:
“That was Barack Obama backstage … I think he dropped his bowling ball.”
May 21st, 2008 at 3:55 am
That joke was one reason why they are NEVER selected months in advance.
It will be announced early Aug.
So time to relax.
May 21st, 2008 at 6:32 am
I tend to agree with this. I think he should select his running mate no later then mid to late July. The timing also depends, I think, on who he ends up selecting. For instance, Pawlenty is the chairman of the National Governors Association. The Annual Meetings summit is July 11-14. It seems to me that if he intends to pick Pawlenty (and my guess is, he’ll have already decided at least a few weeks before he officially announces), those dates are rather important. Does he pick Pawlenty before the meeting, thereby giving Pawlenty a chance to be in the limelight, in a position of leadership right when the country is starting to form their impressions of him? That could turn out awfully well. On the other hand, if he’s the presumptive VP, alot of Democratic Governors might wish to embarrass him, by thoroughly rejecting his initiatives. So maybe McCain selects Pawlenty just after the NGA meetings, in the hope that he’s achieved success. But, what if he didn’t have success? What if it’s a repeat of the Winter Meetings, where Pawlenty failed to bridge the divide on his “Clean Energy” initiative, because Governor’s from coal states banded together in opposition? So maybe he picks Pawlenty well before the meetings, in late June. That gives the public a chance to form an impression of him, before the meetings. And if the Democrats do try to embarrass him there, the public will see it for what it is; a cynical plot against a good man.
May 21st, 2008 at 8:03 am
Cheney was the best pick in that list of VP’s.
Its worth repeating that McCain said he will select/announce his VP after Obama, but he will of course know long before that you would think.
Just to bring real life into this, I cook so I shop nearly every day and am very conscious of prices. Today I bought a pound of rice, the same brand I’ve been buying for a long time for $1.50. Today it cost me $2.19. Now many will say that’s not a lot, stop whinning, but its the shock of a nearly 50% increase that is important. That shock is felt in the grocery store and the gas station. There are millions of Americans who like me stop and wonder “what is going on?”
That is to say, unless something is done about food and fuel prices there is no VP who can save McCain.
May 21st, 2008 at 8:09 am
i think vp is down to pawlenty, thune, and romney. (as much as i like mccain/lieberman i just don’t think he’ll pick a 66 yr old liberal democrat when the base is already iffy, sec. of state i think is joe’s spot).
May 21st, 2008 at 8:16 am
PabloZed, we’re entering a period of inflation.
Not only are agricultural/energy/mineral commodities scarce…
China is experiencing rapid increases in labor costs, transport costs, and monetary problems.
In short expect those low, low prices at Wal-Mart to rise 2-3% each month.
For certain foodstuffs expect ~6-7% increases each month (often hidden by putting less food in the same size package).
May 21st, 2008 at 8:18 am
Again, I repeat that Pawlenty and Romney which are being taunted in the forefront as the
most likely VP in the ticket are both dull lack the luster to counteract Obama’s seemingly star power that draws giant crowds. Rudy would match that excitement as well as name recognition. Again I say he will get the Hillary votes, which will clinch the McCain-Giuliani
win.
May 21st, 2008 at 8:26 am
Food prices are rising. No doubt about it – and it sucks. $3 for a bag of hamburger rolls at Wal-Mart? It used to be $1.89.
But I’m not sure the cost of food and fuel prices is necessarily going to hurt McCain. After all, the people that are hurting the most because of the economy are the very group that so far has not been receptive to Obama. That’s precisely why most Republicans feared a Clinton nomination more. She has demonstrated an ability to connect with this bloc.
The election is a tossup now. It really is. Anything can happen over the next 5 months. But unless or until Obama can demonstrate a Clintonesque (Bill or Hil) ability to resonate on economic issues – unless or until he can get the most economically depressed voters to even give him a hearing I’m not convinced Obama is in any position to capitalize off of the issue.
May 21st, 2008 at 8:27 am
Pablo,
It’s funny. At the time folks thought Cheney was a terrible choice. All of Bush’s inner circle protested. How does it look, they wondered, to pick your daddy’s secretary of defense when you’re trying to kick the spoiled, legacy, rich boy label? And a Veep from Wyoming? My goodness. So unconventional picks sometimes pay dividends. I actually think Lloyd Bentsen was a terrific pick as well. People often cite Bentsen as an example of what happens when the Veep appears more presidential then the Presidential candidate, but I’m pretty skeptical of that narrative. Immediately after Dukakis selected Bentsen, the Democrats were leading in Texas; George Bush’s home state. He might have had an enromous impact, but Dukakis collapsed on his own. Anyway, Cheney was more presidential then Bush, and that turned out fine.
May 21st, 2008 at 8:35 am
Adam, I thought it was telling how Kentucky Democrats overwhelmingly supported a gas tax holiday, and Oregon Dems overwhelmingly opposed it. That reveals the divide in the party. The Hillary Dems say, “I’m sick of paying high gas prices. I need to get to work, and it’s reaching the point where my first 2 hours of my 8 hour days goes to gas.” An Obama supporter in Portland, Oregon who is a lawyer and walks to work would say, “People should stop whining about gas prices and stop driving places frivolously. We need to do something about global warming.” If he makes $100,000 a year, what’s an extra dollar a gallon for gas? The poor voter in rural Kentucky who needs to travel 10 miles just to get to a grocery store and 20 miles to work, and only makes $8 an hour, does not have time to worry about things like the environment. McCain needs to tap into this group and rally them against Obama.
May 21st, 2008 at 8:36 am
Glo,
The Rudy of 7 or even 4 years ago is gone. I can’t recall a single “luster-filled” moment in his presidential campaign. He was mediocre in all but one or two debate performances. His big speeches (the one in Florida for instancewere met with big yawns). He actually stopped running ads in NH, because they were causing him to LOSE voters. And he won a grand total of 2 delegates, despite spending 50 million dollars, thus depleting whatever “winner”, “star” mojo he might have retained. I’m no fan of Romney for VP, but Mitt gave a number of truly wonderful debate performances; I don’t think I’ve ever seen a debater in better form then Romney in the months of December, January, and early Feb. And he was hitting a wonderful stride on the trail too. Lots of things can be said about Romney, but it’s ludicrous to say he doesn’t have “luster”. And everyone already knows how I feel about Pawlenty on this front.
May 21st, 2008 at 8:43 am
EGS – inflation is an economy and campaign killer. When you can actually see prices rising it makes me think of hyperinflation (yes, I know its not but it sure seems like it). Oil also briefly passed $130/bl this morning.
Adam – toss up? New Reuters poll has Obama up 10 47-37%. I think we now know why Bush attacked him.
Matthew – Bentsen was a great pick, but not better than Cheney for one reason – Bush/Cheney won. Cheney gave voters an assurance that a grown-up (that was the word used at the time) would be there. Also, it was clearly a governing choice instead of an attempt to win a certain state.
May 21st, 2008 at 8:44 am
Clarence,
Exactly. Democrats have historically been well-suited to win in uncertain economic times. As the party increasingly becomes more upscale it’s going to be tougher to capitalize on this sort of thing – especially when the party nominates people culturally out-of-sync with the “old” Democrats.
May 21st, 2008 at 8:48 am
Pablo,
Your blind shilling for Obama is becoming laughable.
Here are the polls from July of 2004
The electoral college polls are no different now than they were at this point in 2004.
And I thought your claim was that Bush *didn’t* attack him. I thought you said that Obama just masterfully jumped in to tie McCain to Bush. Which is it?
May 21st, 2008 at 8:52 am
Clarence – I agree in part, but as one of those lawyers who rides a bike to work I say this “An extra dollar a gallon is what made me start riding that bike!” And that was back when it went from a little over a dollar to over two. My heart would fail if I ever paid $4 for a single gallon of gas. So its not that money doesn’t matter, but rather that the proposal has been proven to not lower prices. Its a gimmick that will cost people jobs.
May 21st, 2008 at 8:57 am
The only individual
on the picture pantheon
of your web site
That I have a serious respect for is:
RON PAUL
The rest are Reagan Clones or should I say: Reagan Clowns.
McCain will say anything, do anything,
just to try to prove that he really cares about conservatism.
jess the truth, folks… buddy
May 21st, 2008 at 8:58 am
Adam, its May 2008. As this posts says, Kerry picked his running mate in July and the convention was just weeks away. But the point is you said it was a “toss-up” and it ain’t.
I don’t shill – or troll to paraphrase Jon Stewart. I just like honest debate.
May 21st, 2008 at 9:04 am
Even in mid-May of ‘04 the Zogby Poll, the Time Poll and the CBS poll showed Kerry leading by 5, 5 and 6. Right now the state-by-state polls look awfully similar to what they did four years ago – in May or July or October. Neither candidate is ahead of the other in any meaningful way. It’s still anybody’s game.
May 21st, 2008 at 9:09 am
Food prices…
The poorest among us are, statistically, the fattest among us. Maybe they can finally stop buying so much ~@#$ food if prices rise. If they can’t afford it, prices will go back down, they’ll be thinner, fuel prices will go down since people won’t need as much to make their cars run (efficiency is dependent on weight, too, y’know!).
Voila!
May 21st, 2008 at 9:12 am
Alex,
Precisely Obama’s thoughts, I suspect, given his recent comments.
May 21st, 2008 at 9:14 am
That’s really kind of interesting when you think about it. When was the last time any of you has seen a skinny poor person?
May 21st, 2008 at 9:17 am
Alex, the problem isn’t quantity. It’s quality. Food that tends to be fattening is cheap.
I suspect you’ve never been poor or you’d not make an ignorant elitist wise crack like that.
Healthy food is just too expensive for working class families.
May 21st, 2008 at 9:18 am
Alex,
Unfortunately you are only partly correct. The poorest have the worst diets and the worst healthcare, but fresh fruits and vegetables are rising in price fastest of all. The poor are consuming more junk (not less), cheaper processed meats instead of costlier lean ones.
May 21st, 2008 at 9:20 am
Econ’s right. I don’t think you’re going to find too many Mercedes in the parking lot of the local McDonald’s. Personally I hate fast food and the only time I go to McD’s or BK is when I am in a time crunch.
(I’m pretty sure Alex was just kidding, btw.)
May 21st, 2008 at 9:21 am
On a per calorie basis, diets composed of whole grains, fish, and fresh vegetables and fruit are far more expensive than refined grains, added sugars and added fats. It’s not a question of being sensible or silly when it comes to food choices, it’s about being limited to those foods that you can afford.
May 21st, 2008 at 9:21 am
EGS – “Providence makes us think and feel in harmony.” Flaubert
May 21st, 2008 at 9:31 am
I drove a family over to the charity food pantry for my county. When I get there they fill out several form and then get two laundry carts full of unhealthy food that’s surplus from grocery stores and the USDA.
At some level the government is to blame for the heightened obesity of poor people.
It has placed them in a situation that starts and reinforces bad habits.
May 21st, 2008 at 9:33 am
I think the suspense of McCain picking his VP is getting to all of us.
May 21st, 2008 at 9:33 am
Obviously Alex has never been poor. What’s less expensive, Chicken breasts, baked potato and salad or a box of (store brand) mac & cheese. Noodles with cream of mushroom soup and canned peas vs salmon, rice pilaf and a nice vegitable blend. When you are trying to feed a family on very little money the less expensive is less healthy.
Looks like the Dem’s don’t have a lock on being elitist.
May 21st, 2008 at 9:34 am
Econ,
Maybe. But exercising doesn’t cost anything.
May 21st, 2008 at 9:37 am
Adam, 70% of weight management is diet. Only 30% is activity.
If you eat crap, exercise can’t help very much.
May 21st, 2008 at 9:40 am
Casey, you are correct. The MetroRepublican, Alex Knepper wing of the Republican party is elitist and is culturally closer to Obama than either Hillary or McCain. The only differences they have with Obama are on the war and on the role of government, but culturally, they are cut from the same cloth as Obama. In fact, one of them has admitted to being elitist.
May 21st, 2008 at 9:41 am
Plus, that poor diet doesn’t exactly give you a lot of energy. Malnutrition, which many of the poor have, makes you tired and sluggish.
May 21st, 2008 at 9:41 am
19 was made in jest, guys.
May 21st, 2008 at 9:41 am
How come Dan Quayle is not on this list?
May 21st, 2008 at 9:42 am
Casey, not every healthy food is expensive however, fruits and vegetables are among the cheapest things in the supermarket. Part of it is that unhealthy foods are cheap, but a lot of these people also don’t know what is healthy and what isn’t because they weren’t brought up to know that. It is a vicious cycle.
May 21st, 2008 at 9:44 am
Alex, the problem isn’t quantity. It’s quality. Food that tends to be fattening is cheap. I suspect you’ve never been poor or you’d not make an ignorant elitist wise crack like that. Healthy food is just too expensive for working class families.
I’ll disagree with what you want me to conclude from that, however.
Anyone can stick to a healthy lifestyle, even on a budget, so long as they’re willing to monitor their calorie intake and exercise regularly.
It’s not about what you eat, but how much you eat, as far as losing weight goes.
I lost 80+ pounds, all while eating fast food, packaged snacks, and frozen pizzas on a regular basis.
May 21st, 2008 at 9:45 am
A big unacknowledged factor in obesity is stress. Stress tends to trigger weight gain and fatigue.
It’s not surprising that poor people have one of the highest stress levels in America. They work in service sector jobs (may I take your order please?), they face financial ruin and they have unstable family situations.
It’s really amazing our lower class isn’t more unhealthy.
May 21st, 2008 at 9:46 am
Alex, you’re a teenager. Think.
Your biology doesn’t apply to anyone over 24. Get a clue, please. You’re embarrassing yourself.
May 21st, 2008 at 9:47 am
A big unacknowledged factor in obesity is stress. Stress tends to trigger weight gain and fatigue.
No, extra calorie intake triggers weight gain.
Stress can trigger emotional eating, but on its own, stress won’t make you fat.
May 21st, 2008 at 9:48 am
Your biology doesn’t apply to anyone over 24. Get a clue, please. You’re embarrassing yourself.
Actually, it does.
The only thing that can make a person gain weight is excess calorie intake.
May 21st, 2008 at 9:48 am
Or were you kidding again?
May 21st, 2008 at 9:49 am
Let me add something to my #37:
I just monitored my calorie intake, regularly having a deficit of 500-1,000 calories daily.
Your metabolism may change as you get older, making it harder to lose weight, but the rules still apply: it’s not what you eat, it’s how much you eat.
The only thing that can make you gain weight is excess calorie intake that gets stored as fat!
May 21st, 2008 at 9:50 am
I agree Clarence. Education is important but it isn’t being done. The government should make sure good diet and nutrition are taught at all grade levels, as well as how to do it on a low income.
Access is a problem too. In Detroit hardly any inter-city neighborhoods have grocery stores. There are local “markets” with poor and limited selection. To get to a decent store they would have to take a bus for over an hour and then carry the groceries back home.
There are a whole list of problems that face the poor when it comes to nutrition.
May 21st, 2008 at 9:50 am
“fruits and vegetables are among the cheapest things in the supermarket”
Clarence – you obviously don’t shop. I don’t buy fresh fruit unless its on sale. As much as I like peppers, I refuse to pay $4/lb, and that has been the price for months.
May 21st, 2008 at 9:50 am
Clarence:
Some people may not know what healthy food is, but some are also to lazy to cook.
With regards to the VP, perhaps we should wait and see what the lay of the land is and see what we are dealing with.
May 21st, 2008 at 9:51 am
Yeah but I think you’re making excuses for people who are poor and overweight (unless you’re talking about someone with a thyroid problem). If you’re 50 pounds overweight – buy a Brita filter instead of drinking iced tea made from a powder mix. Eat more salad. Switch to light beer. Just eat a little less.
Believe me – Not all that long ago I was able to relate firsthand to being a poor college kid eating Ramen noodles way too often, but a lot of obesity really is due to laziness. There were plenty of people who made very little money 40 years ago – but widespread obesity seems to be a much more recent phenomenon.
May 21st, 2008 at 9:51 am
Evidently not.
I guess Alex, never heard of Cortisol or hypoglycemia.
May 21st, 2008 at 9:53 am
Excellent points Casey, especially concerning teaching nutrition in school (and they can in turn take those lessons home to their parents). Choosing skim milk over whole, drinking juice instead of pop, wheat over white bread.
May 21st, 2008 at 9:53 am
Or metabolism.
May 21st, 2008 at 9:53 am
Alex:
You must not have type O blood. Even as a type A, I could not lose 80 pounds living on Pizza.
May 21st, 2008 at 9:54 am
And obesity was very nearly as much of a problem five years ago as it is today – so it can’t be explained away by the very recent (and unfortunately, steep) increase in food prices.
May 21st, 2008 at 9:57 am
I guess Alex, never heard of Cortisol or hypoglycemia.
Yes, it is more difficult for some people to lose weight than others.
But I would refer you to the rule rather than the exceptions (not that the exceptions preclude weight loss).
As a general rule, someone can plug in their age, height, and weight to a calorie calculator (such as the one on freedieting.com) and get the deficits they need in order to lose weight.
May 21st, 2008 at 9:58 am
Alex, poor diet can effect weight gain. Read “You On A Diet” because it explains many physiological changes that high carb foods do to the body; how it triggers fat production, affects insulin levels and increases hunger.
I too have lost a lot of weight and have studied it quite a bit. Trust me, the poor are working with a stacked deck and it’s stacked against them.
May 21st, 2008 at 9:59 am
You must not have type O blood. Even as a type A, I could not lose 80 pounds living on Pizza.
I do, actually, have Type O blood.
May 21st, 2008 at 9:59 am
The generations born before government interference in agriculture had different diets growing up.
That’s because agricultural policies following the New Deal led to overproduction of corn. Corn that was turned into high fructose corn syrup and placed in many products.
I suspect Alex, demands laziness as the cause of obesity because he was once fat and desires to feel superior in some way to people who still are fat.
As someone who’s lost 60 pounds in the last couple years, I can understand the temptation.
May 21st, 2008 at 9:59 am
I am not sure its laziness as opposed to convenience and lack of education. Fast food is just that – fast – and its cheap.
And most people, even the well educated, are ignorant of the calories and fat in some fast foods.
May 21st, 2008 at 10:01 am
Alex, poor diet can effect weight gain. Read “You On A Diet†because it explains many physiological changes that high carb foods do to the body; how it triggers fat production, affects insulin levels and increases hunger. I too have lost a lot of weight and have studied it quite a bit. Trust me, the poor are working with a stacked deck and it’s stacked against them.
Oh, believe me, I know. It’s got to be a lifestyle change, not a “diet”, and it needs real dedication.
The problem is that most people, I believe, don’t know where to start.
May 21st, 2008 at 10:01 am
PabloZed, I do all the grocery shopping at my house. Did I say “fresh fruits and vegetables”? NO. I said “fruits and vegetables”. That could be frozen or canned. Poor people can easily buy canned vegetables. They aren’t as healthy as fresh, but they are healthier than Ramen noodles or something like that. I personally do not buy any canned vegetables. I usually buy fresh but sometimes frozen. I can afford fresh vegetables, but I do sympathize with those who can’t.
May 21st, 2008 at 10:02 am
The point Alex misses is that working people require enough food to not feel hungry. These folks have to work and feed their families. They’re not kids with energy a plenty like Alex.
The food they can afford is dense in calories, added sugars and added fats.
These foods will provide more calories to satisfy hunger.
The foods that can satiate hunger with fewer calories are too expensive for working class families.
May 21st, 2008 at 10:04 am
That’s because agricultural policies following the New Deal led to overproduction of corn. Corn that was turned into high fructose corn syrup and placed in many products. I suspect Alex, demands laziness as the cause of obesity because he was once fat and desires to feel superior in some way to people who still are fat. As someone who’s lost 60 pounds in the last couple years, I can understand the temptation.
I don’t think it’s laziness, necessarily. Lack of self-control and poor education.
Many people may have the willpower to change (though many overweight and obese people I’ve spoken to claim that they’re happy and that they honestly don’t care about changing their lifestyles), but they don’t know where to start.
And I do understand how difficult it can be to resist the temptation to eat crap, when it’s so readily available.
May 21st, 2008 at 10:04 am
High fructose corn syrup IS ridiculous. It’s in bread. Bread! It’s nearly impossible to get away from. I’m 27 and 5′11″. I used to weigh 197 pounds and wasn’t too happy with that so I didn’t do anything except cut my calories to 1900 a day (and I had to give up drinking Guinness – sigh).
But it worked. I’m down to 182. That’s where I want to stay.
May 21st, 2008 at 10:05 am
“A study led by scientists from University of Alberta has established a link between urban planning and rising obesity rates.
Researchers focused their study over two key areas- economic environments and built environments i.e. the ways in which the neighbourhoods and the cities we live in are planned and developed.
When we reviewed the evidence we found, for example, that lower-income neighbourhoods were more likely to have greater access to sources of high-calorie foods, such as fast-food outlets, and lower access to supermarkets or other stores stocking healthy foods, said Kim Raine, lead author and director of the University of Albertas Centre for Health Promotion Studies.
The report also found that a lower socio-economic statuswhich involves education level, income and employmentwas often associated with increased obesity among both adults and children.
Lower personal income affects the affordability of food and that has been shown to have the most consistent influence on what people eat, he added.
They also found that accessibility to recreational facilities in and around neighbourhoods had a significant impact on increasing obesity levels.”
From some newspaper I googled.
May 21st, 2008 at 10:05 am
I do think a lot of people are uninformed about what is healthy and what isn’t. I’m of above average intelligence, and I still hear contradictory information about what is and isn’t healthy. Some things are obvious. Others are not. I know very well-educated people who eat two pieces of white bread toasted every morning and have no idea they’re doing anything bad nutritionally. I said to a family member with a Master’s Degree, “You’d be better off if you ate whole wheat bread you know.” He says, “I never knew that.” It’s pretty scary. This person also said once that watermelon couldn’t be healthy because it’s mostly water.
May 21st, 2008 at 10:07 am
I think it’s also probably true that alot of the poor could cut back on amenities if they wnated to eat healthier food. My mom makes 40k a year, and we live in an area with incredibly high costs of living; a pretty wealthy county, in the wealthiest state in the country. We spend 23k on rent alone. But, we get by ok. Why? Because I help out a bit, working 40 hours a week at 10 bucks an hour, and because we purchase virtually no amenities. I buy 4 or 5 four dollar drinks a week (at the local borders). That’s pretty much the extent of my spending. I don’t see many movies, at least not unless I happen to be with my dad (who makes a ton more money). I don’t buy any books or movies. I don’t go out for dinners. I don’t even purchase gas anymore, since my car’s in rough shape and it’s much cheaper to ride my bike anyway, given my needs. We eat perfectly healthiluy. Now, not everyone can avoid driving, and I’m sure even 40k a years seems like alot in some areas of the country; but really, given where we live, that’s about the equivalent of 20k in some of the struggling areas of America, for a family of 3.
May 21st, 2008 at 10:07 am
The point Alex misses is that working people require enough food to not feel hungry. These folks have to work and feed their families. They’re not kids with energy a plenty like Alex. The food they can afford is dense in calories, added sugars and added fats. These foods will provide more calories to satisfy hunger. The foods that can satiate hunger with fewer calories are too expensive for working class families.
Energy-a-plenty? I often felt totally lethargic, compared to today (when my BMI is 19) when my BMI was 30.
I am well aware that cheaper food is all-too-often crappier food, but don’t pretend that healthy and not-so-awful foods out there that also aren’t too expensive and relatively satiating don’t exist.
Plus, people really don’t need much food. They just think that they do because they’re so used to their exorbitant lifestyles.
“Eat to live, don’t live to eat!”
May 21st, 2008 at 10:09 am
Matt, when I was a boy my mom made the inflation adjusted equivalent of $15,000 with a family of 6. That wasn’t that strange in my neighborhood.
May 21st, 2008 at 10:10 am
High fructose corn syrup IS ridiculous. It’s in bread. Bread! It’s nearly impossible to get away from. I’m 27 and 5?11?. I used to weigh 197 pounds and wasn’t too happy with that so I didn’t do anything except cut my calories to 1900 a day (and I had to give up drinking Guinness – sigh). But it worked. I’m down to 182. That’s where I want to stay.
High-fructose corn syrup is tough to avoid if you’re looking for a snack, yeah.
Something else that’s ridiculous that people tend not to look for: convoluted serving sizes.
Look on the Cap’n Crunch boxes, for example. 140 calories per serving — lovely. Oh, and there are also 22 servings in a box.
May 21st, 2008 at 10:11 am
Econ grad stud and Alex, I hate to pick on people because of their age, but I do think there is a good chance Alex will move to the left on fiscal issues as he gets older, especially if things don’t go as well as planned. I grew up in an upper middle class family, probably more similar to Alex than to econ grad stud. When I was in high school and didn’t even have a part time job except during summers, it was easy for me to take all these fiscally conservative positions. I said, “They should abolish welfare. If you don’t work, you don’t get paid.” “Abolish the minimum wage. Let employers pay people what they want. If you don’t like it, don’t work there.” “Abolish Social Security, people should save their own money.” As I have gotten older, I’ve realized life is a lot more complicated than that. I have not crossed over to being a fiscal liberal by any means, or even a fiscal moderate, but I am nowhere near as conservative now as I was when I was 16. It is a rough world out there.
May 21st, 2008 at 10:14 am
Econ grad stud and Alex, I hate to pick on people because of their age, but I do think there is a good chance Alex will move to the left on fiscal issues as he gets older, especially if things don’t go as well as planned. I grew up in an upper middle class family, probably more similar to Alex than to econ grad stud. When I was in high school and didn’t even have a part time job except during summers, it was easy for me to take all these fiscally conservative positions. I said, “They should abolish welfare. If you don’t work, you don’t get paid.†“Abolish the minimum wage. Let employers pay people what they want. If you don’t like it, don’t work there.†“Abolish Social Security, people should save their own money.†As I have gotten older, I’ve realized life is a lot more complicated than that. I have not crossed over to being a fiscal liberal by any means, or even a fiscal moderate, but I am nowhere near as conservative now as I was when I was 16. It is a rough world out there.
I see these issues in moral terms, not economic terms. And my arguments against welfare programs and Social Security are a tad bit more developed than the platitudes you trotted out would suggest.
And I am incrementalist and completely pragmatic about solutions to problems today.
(I’m 18, by the way, not 16. ACT Blog is 16.)
May 21st, 2008 at 10:14 am
Also, the minimum wage, from an economic standpoint, is neither pragmatic nor compassionate.
It harms the lower classes.
So don’t act like I’d move left on that if I suddenly had an emotional investment in wanting it raised.
May 21st, 2008 at 10:16 am
The minimum wage argument is one the GOP will never win. We always look like the bad guys. We ought to just tie it to inflation and be done with it – instead of allowing the Democrats to make the entire party look mean-spirited every couple of years.
May 21st, 2008 at 10:17 am
Incidentally – I agree with Alex on the minimum wage as a practical matter – but politically opposing minimum wage increases is a loser for the GOP.
May 21st, 2008 at 10:17 am
Alex, that’s a controversial belief in economic journals.
Most labor economist realize labor markets are somewhat monopsonistic.
That’s why in many industries small minimum wage increases lead to higher employment.
May 21st, 2008 at 10:22 am
I think McCain needs to do it sooner rather than later. If he were to wait til late August most of the base may have already moved on and decided on a third party candidate.
May 21st, 2008 at 10:22 am
EGS,
Oh yeah, my dad grew up in something like that. His mother didn’t graduate high school, was working three jobs, and trying to raise 8 boys in a poor section of Philadelphia. I don’t claim to live in anything like those circumstances. But, I live in a county where the average family income is something like 80k. It’s one of the 50 wealthiest counties in the country. So it’s not exactly a picnic getting by on what is essentially 50k, even including all of my income, with college costs and the like. I’m still trying to figure out how and where I’m going to go back to school.
May 21st, 2008 at 10:26 am
Alex, first of all, I did not say you were 16. I know that you are 18. High school seniors are not typically 16. I was talking about MY age when I thought those things, not yours. Furthermore, my arguments even at 16 were more developed than the platitudes I mentioned in that comment. It is just faster to simplify them when you are making a comment. As far as the minimum wage, I think Adam and Alex are both wrong. If you raised it to an unreasonable level, it would harm the people it is trying to help, certainly. However, many economists believe that modest increases in the minimum wage do NOT increase unemployment. They might modestly increase the price for consumers or reduce the incomes of employers. It is inhumane to pay anyone under $9 an hour to do anything if you ask me. I am not suggesting the minimum wage be that high, $7 is fine. I suppose people can refuse to work for $7 an hour, but if you are desperate for a job and unskilled or don’t have the people skills to negotiate a raise, we should not prey on people like that. This is the United States of America, not China. I know that’s an unpopular position among conservatives, but that’s how I feel.
May 21st, 2008 at 10:31 am
I need someone who is going to push the hec out of a comprehensive energy plan to include digging in Alaska, digging in the Gulf of Mexico, to push for the building of more refineries, nuclear plants, clean coal plants, and hec to push for more solar, hydroelectric and wind power if needed. We continue to fund the terrorists and rogue states by purchasing countless amounts of oil. Not one presidential candidate is pushing for such a plan. The only VP candidate to push for anything of this nature is Giuliani.
May 21st, 2008 at 10:31 am
In my old state (Missouri) the minimum wage is adjusted by inflation each year. The constitutional amendment that caused that passed with 76% of the vote.
I don’t think more than 5-6 states would reject that.
May 21st, 2008 at 10:34 am
It’s funny how things change. Three years ago I was all-prepared to crusade for a “living wage” of 14 dollars an hour, and was on the brink of full-fledged liberalism. Until Iraq, cultural issues, and a conversation with a prominent advocate of the living wage brought me back from the brink. The lady came in to talk to my political theory class, and she was utterly disastrous; I desperately wanted to believe, but a few of the libertarian folks in my class made her look like a fool. I pretty much abandoned my flirtation with liberalism soon after that, and have never looked back. I now pretty much oppose even low minimum wage’s, but admittedly I don’t much care about the issue.
May 21st, 2008 at 10:35 am
Clarence,
My sister is 17. She works as a cashier at the supermarket in town and makes $7.50. She has no bills and no responsibility and because of her job is never low on pocket change. What happens to the price of food if the store has to pay $10 an hour to my sister and her friends that have nothing better to do than hang out at the mall?
I’m no economist but I don’t think paying higher wages in entry-level jobs is the answer to soaring food prices.
May 21st, 2008 at 10:37 am
80 — We libertarians have a tendency to do that to socialists.
May 21st, 2008 at 10:39 am
Adam, didn’t I say that $7 an hour as a minimum wage was high enough for me? She makes $7.50. What is your complaint?
May 21st, 2008 at 10:41 am
I can tell you exactly what grocery stores do and have done. They cut the hours worked by their higher paid employees, they cut healthcare benefits, and they even sometimes trump of reasons to get rid of more seniored employees.
May 21st, 2008 at 10:42 am
econ grad stud, I don’t think that would be voted down in any state, never mind 5-6 states. I think Mitt actually supported tying it to inflation, but the Democrats don’t want to do it. They would rather get the credit for raising it every few years. Republican members of Congress should just vote their conscience on the issue. There are good arguments on both sides.
May 21st, 2008 at 10:42 am
I’m just saying that for a kid that lives with his or her parents, paying less than $9 is hardly inhumane (especially considering I got paid $4.60 for doing the same thing ten years ago).
May 21st, 2008 at 10:46 am
An answer would be to pay students a different wage as is done in some places. Just as kids who are dependents qualify for less financial aid than students who are independent. The argument should be for flexibility instead of one size fits all.
May 21st, 2008 at 10:47 am
Clarence,
I’m fine with tying the minimum wage to inflation; it’s a gimmicky issue, which is always going to harm us until we can take it off the radar screen. And the negative impoact of small yearly increases isn’t terribly significant.
May 21st, 2008 at 10:48 am
Plus shouldn’t Adam’s sister be paid based on her work and not based on economic need. Whether or not she has bills is irrelevant, working in a grocery store is hard work. Would any of you want to do that all day? $7.50 is a fair wage for that, $5.15 would not be. I don’t think the minimum wage needs to be higher than $7 or $8 right now though.
May 21st, 2008 at 10:49 am
Matt, in all but a few industries the impact is nil. Very few industries rely on declining real wages for unskilled labor. Most of those industries are in China now. Even retailers usually provide better than minimum wage for all but recent hires.
May 21st, 2008 at 10:51 am
I’m just saying that for a kid that lives with his or her parents, paying less than $9 is hardly inhumane (especially considering I got paid $4.60 for doing the same thing ten years ago).
Most people making minimum wage are first-time workers — mostly teenagers and young adults.
Additionally, almost everyone who starts at minimum wage is above it by their second year of work.
May 21st, 2008 at 10:51 am
Clarence,
Agreed. If I was 17 today and in her shoes, I wouldn’t do it for $5.15/hr either.
May 21st, 2008 at 10:51 am
Adam, again, the fact that she lives with her parents is irrelevant, you pay someone by the quality of work, not by economic need. Pablo, paying students less is equally ridiculous. Do you pay a single person less money than a married man with a wife who is a homemaker and five kids because the married man has a greater economic need? That’s crazy!
May 21st, 2008 at 10:51 am
I’m fine with tying the minimum wage to inflation; it’s a gimmicky issue, which is always going to harm us until we can take it off the radar screen. And the negative impoact of small yearly increases isn’t terribly significant.
I agree.
We’ll never win on the issue and it’s not worth fighting it because of that.
We need to strike a reasonable compromise that won’t damage us politically and get the issue off of the table so we can focus on other matters.
May 21st, 2008 at 10:53 am
Clarence, Agreed. If I was 17 today and in her shoes, I wouldn’t do it for $5.15/hr either.
Most wouldn’t.
Average starting wages would rise as a natural ‘thing’ because of that — no one will work for that money, so the incentive to work has to be upped in the terms of higher wages.
May 21st, 2008 at 10:53 am
Re: The Running Mate: Timing is Everything
A few important dates to note on the calendar:
Democratic Convention: Monday, August 25 – Thursday, August 28
John McCain’s 72nd Birthday: Friday, August 29
Labor Day Weekend: Friday, August 29 – Monday, September 1
GOP Convention: Monday, September 1 – Thursday, September 4
Optimal target date for announcement of McCain’s VP selection: Thursday, August 21
Alternate positions for those on supposed short-list who aren’t selected as McCain’s running mate:
Rudy Giuliani – Attorney General, Homeland Security
Joe Lieberman – Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General
Charlie Crist – Attorney General, EPA
Mitt Romney – Treasury Secretary, RNC Chairman
Mike Huckabee – HHS
May 21st, 2008 at 10:54 am
I do a part-time job after school.
I make $7.20/hr.
A lot of my friends make more than I do, but their hours are less flexible. Additionally, my job is a desk job and I get to listen to music the whole time.
I’d rather be doing what I’m doing than working a retail or food-oriented job for, say, $8/hr.
There’s more to jobs than just wages.
May 21st, 2008 at 10:55 am
Clarence, you say its ridiculous but it happens. There are summer youth employment programs around the country that employ students for the summer to give them some money but also to get them off the streets. And they don’t pay them what they would pay paid an adult or a parent.
May 21st, 2008 at 10:58 am
I am sure the dems will be throwing McCain a huge party and you know there will be a cake with 72 candles.
May 21st, 2008 at 11:01 am
Pablo, that doesn’t make it right. And Alex and Adam, you guys might be smart enough to refuse a job for $5 an hour, but not everyone is as smart as you. How come the laborers in China do not refuse to work for the low wages they get? Sometimes I feel like liberals want the United States to be like Europe, and conservatives want it to be like China. As for me, I’m happy with how it is.
May 21st, 2008 at 11:02 am
Alex,
Exactly. What if (for making a little less money) you decide to take a job where you are one kid out of 10 that could do the exact same job as you? If I was in high school I would much rather take a job for $7.50 an hour – with the flexibility to take a day off when I was scheduled for work on short notice, than to take a job at a gas station for $8 an hour where if I couldn’t make it into work because I needed to study for a calc test – it would cause me to get fired because I was the only one available to work.
May 21st, 2008 at 11:04 am
Alex, I know there is more to jobs than just wages. People think I’m nuts for doing my part time telephone surveying job at the university for $9.50 an hour, but I love calling people and asking how they will vote, and I love working with the college kids. I think the minimum wage is fine as it is now, but I do think $5.15 was too low.
May 21st, 2008 at 11:04 am
Pablo,
Maybe they should throw the party at a bowling alley – considering their front-runner’s inability to connect with Joe Blow
May 21st, 2008 at 11:06 am
What is the minimum wage going to be when the final increase goes into effect? $7.25 or something?
May 21st, 2008 at 11:08 am
Adam, did you see the exit polls in Kentucky where among people who wanted a candidate who “cares about people”, Hillary Clinton won 76-20. Either Barack Obama doesn’t know how to project empathy or he just doesn’t have any, and I think it’s the latter.
May 21st, 2008 at 11:11 am
Clarence,
Probably right on Obama. Either way – bad for him, good for us
May 21st, 2008 at 11:12 am
And this is after he’s the inevitable nominee!! I had a friend who dragged me to a bar in Manchester, NH that he was at after a Dem. debate. He came in with the secret service, shook a couple people’s hands, and left. I went to a post-debate party for Mitt Romney, who is soooo out of touch, he stayed for over an hour and shook every hand in the room. I went to a Huckabee event once too, and he also talked to everybody.
May 21st, 2008 at 11:14 am
I’d love to see Obama try to chug a Yuengling Lager.
May 21st, 2008 at 11:15 am
However, I have a friend who is a lawyer, and Obama came to their law firm and spent a long time and had a nice discussion, but that’s his base, after all.
May 21st, 2008 at 11:15 am
I don’t even know what that is, maybe I’m elitist too.
May 21st, 2008 at 11:16 am
Clarence,
Haha. It’s a Pennsylvania thing. It’s just your typical beer.
May 21st, 2008 at 11:18 am
Maybe McCain will pick Hillary as a running mate.
“Dream Team: Is Hillary John McCain’s Vice President?”
http://www.smirkingchimp.com/thread/14233
May 21st, 2008 at 11:22 am
Tom, I’ve said that on multiple occasions when I’ve gotten mad at pragmatists for wanting to pick Lieberman or Powell. I’ve said, “Why not just pick Hillary? Then we can really get her voters.” That was tongue in cheek, but she and McCain are both people who don’t give up. That have both been through difficult circumstances in their life. Hillary was once a Goldwater girl, but wouldn’t it be wild if she became the next Zell Miller and said the party left her?
May 21st, 2008 at 11:25 am
Yuengling is pretty popular in NJ too. I’m not a huge fan of beer, but as far as it goes, I’m a Pilsner guy. I’ve never actually tried Yuengling, but plenty of my friends drink it.
May 21st, 2008 at 11:25 am
I find it ironic how when Hillary says things that are blatantly true like the fact that John McCain has more experience than Barack Obama and loves America more than Barack Obama (not that that’s hard to do), the liberals say she’s dishonest.
May 21st, 2008 at 11:28 am
http://www.buzzflash.com/articles/editorblog/062
May 21st, 2008 at 11:28 am
Clarence,
I suspect that Lieberman is going to quiet down as he continues to prove jimself a colossal failure in supposedly bringing more Democrats and independents onboard. SurveyUSA now has a new Calornia veep poll, and McCain/Lieberman tickets do worse then McCain/Huck or McCain/Romney with Republicans, Democrats AND independents.
May 21st, 2008 at 11:29 am
that Lieberman talk*
May 21st, 2008 at 11:35 am
Tom, they bash Hillary for praising McCain at the expense of Obama, but one of McCain’s former admakers basically admitted he likes Obama better than some of McCain’s Republican rivals. He refuses to run negative ads against Obama, but he didn’t mind running negative ones against Romney. McKinnon likes Obama better than Romney, so Hillary is not the only one to praise the other party’s candidate at the expense of her own.
May 21st, 2008 at 11:41 am
New Rasmussen for FL
McCain 50
Obama 40
May 21st, 2008 at 11:47 am
Adam,
Rasmussen also has a new poll showing Obama up by 6 in Colorado. So mixed news. I don’t think anyone seriously expects Florida to be competitive this go around. Florida’s probably something like the 15th reddest state against Obama. And he won’t be winning 36 states, so I think we’re in pretty good shape there. Colorado, not so much.
May 21st, 2008 at 11:59 am
Matt,
Right on. CO needs work – but this is just what I was telling Pablo about earlier. For every CO that gives our side heartburn the Dems have to contend with a WI. Anybody’s game.
May 21st, 2008 at 12:10 pm
Hi Matthew E. Miller, of course Rudy has luster, just look at the two of them, McCain
and he, they do look good together. Besides, Rudy has been tested, and can make things
happen, a ” can do guy ” He can step into the presidency at any moment, and like Mccain
strong on the nation’s security and foreign policy. His economic stance is likewise
very good to counteract Romney’s .
May 21st, 2008 at 12:13 pm
I just did the math. If we take both Ohio and Florida, even if we lose Colorado, we are still at 260 electoral votes. We then only need 10 more votes among Nevada (5), New Mexico (5), Iowa (7), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (17), Pennsylvania (21), and New Hampshire (4). Just one state among MN, WI, MI, and PA and we win. If we lose all four of those, we then have to take 2 out of the 4 among Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, and New Hampshire. If we take New Hampshire plus either New Mexico or Nevada but lose Iowa, it becomes 269-269!
May 21st, 2008 at 12:36 pm
I think you will all be surprised when McCain will choose Rudy! And together this will be an unbeatable ticket! Think about how many swing states Rudy will put into play.
May 21st, 2008 at 12:42 pm
Clarence, re #32, yes, I said I was an elitist, but I explained what I meant:
“I do consider myself an elitist, which is why I’m a capitalist which is why I’m a Republican. But elitism is misunderstood. It’s not about keeping people out of the elite, but recognizing it’s something to strive for. Regarding small-town folk, I think I share the traditional elitism they’ve held, when they send their best and brightest young people to the big city for a challenging and promising future.”
May 21st, 2008 at 2:16 pm
I know this is late in the thread coming in but:
I live in Oregon where the minimum wage goes up every year. I have been in business management and administration my whole career. One thing that has happened is the companies are cutting out the middle wages (ie, the $11 to $15 range to offset the increase). The divide has grown between the have’s and the have nots. More high school kids are making more and the former $12 earners are now back with the high school kids. I believe the government should provide a reward for businesses that employ a certain amount of their staff at higher levels or offer incentive for those that look for ways to pay higher wages. Minimum wage did need to come up nationally, but I am not in favor of the inflation increase. Businesses budgets do not change, just where they pull the money from.
In regards to all the weight discussions. More people are sitting at computers than ever before. Exercise is harder to get to. Food is important, but I would put lack of exercise as a major culprit.
May 21st, 2008 at 2:17 pm
Metro, I was referring to Alex, not you. I agree with everything you just said though. People should strive to be wealthy instead of being jealous of those who are. I do think you and Alex are culturally elite though. You probably think religious people are dumb or weak, and your comment that no one of importance takes so-cons seriously is an elitist comment.
May 21st, 2008 at 3:30 pm
I always thought that Crist would be his running mate. I still believe so, except now I think that there is a very good chance it will be RUDY!!!
May 21st, 2008 at 3:34 pm
I believe the McCain campaign already admitted that they will not win if they run a traditional campaign with a traditional VP selection. We need to think out of the box.
May 21st, 2008 at 3:41 pm
Come on people! Stop acting like Giuliani didn’t just run one of the dumbest campaigns in history and that Crist doesn’t have that issue or that Lieberman isn’t a pro-abortion liberal. There are GOP voters just looking for a reason to stay home.
May 21st, 2008 at 3:58 pm
John is fine waiting to decide. Observing from a distance peoples reactions to different candidates. In the end, he will take the VP most likely to help him snag a couple of states or to keep the right wing of the party. That is about it.
May 21st, 2008 at 4:48 pm
You hit it in the head, Joe M, it will be Rudy! He will bring the swing states to the tickets.
he trusts his bosom friend, Rudy ,to help him garner the Hillary votes!
May 21st, 2008 at 5:44 pm
If Barry just needs to win Colarado & Ohio he’s looking pretty good isn’t he?
May 23rd, 2008 at 3:34 am
[...] say talk of McCain’s VP pick isn’t on the agenda. And if the past is any guide, his announcement won’t come until just days before the convention, which starts September [...]