The Candidates
- Barack Obama 53% (52%)
- John McCain 38% (38%)
- Hillary Clinton 53% (47%)
- John McCain 38% (42%)
Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)
- Barack Obama 59% / 39% (+20%)
- Hillary Clinton 55% / 44% (+11%)
- John McCain 52% / 48% (+4%)
Survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted May 22. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted April 22 are in parentheses.
May 26th, 2008 at 1:11 pm
depressing
May 26th, 2008 at 1:33 pm
I don’t think Pawlenty is going to tip these numbers; that’s a deficit that pretty much insurmountable in the absence of a major paradigm shift.
May 26th, 2008 at 1:37 pm
Winconsin is the state to focus on. Good news is McCain is tied nationaly with Obama in Newsweek poll (which always adds a couple of points toward the dems.) and up in Gallap tracking poll.
May 26th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
Actually, Michigan is where our focus should be - an unpopular DEM Governor and a shifting state should provide us with a great opportunity.
May 26th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
Also Ras new Ketucky poll is up and Obama is going to lose it by 25%
May 26th, 2008 at 1:42 pm
Yeah Michigan too.
I think the Major 8 states will be Ohio, Michigan, New Mexico, Missiour, Colardo, Neveda, Winconsin, Iowa.
I think NH, FL, and VA will stay with McCain. Penn, NJ, CA, WA, and Org will stay with Obama.
May 26th, 2008 at 1:49 pm
#5, Looks like Mitch McConnell is going to luck out. He’s got an approval rating below 50% but with McCain spanking Obama in Kentucky I doubt Mitch has much to worry about.
May 26th, 2008 at 1:53 pm
Message to Obama Campaign.
- I think it is fantastic that you believe that you will win in Iowa, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico, but if you cannot win Michigan and Florida, McCain will be President.
May 26th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
I put NV on there but the more I Think about it McCain should be able to take NV. New Mexico might be Different.
May 26th, 2008 at 1:57 pm
Karl Rove said to expect a big boost for Obama in the polls as the priamry season winds down. Many Dem’s (but not all) have started to rally to their candidate, just like the GOP did in March. Remember, McCain’s best polling numbers came out just after he secured the Republican nomination. It is to be expected.
May 26th, 2008 at 2:02 pm
As has been noted, the margin of loss here should diminish Pawlenty’s VP prospects as it diminishes his value to the ticket.
May 26th, 2008 at 2:10 pm
Jim Bunning almost lost in 2004 despite a huge Bush win, but I think McConnell will be fine. I think Norm Coleman will be okay in Minnesota, but at the Presidential level, John McCain will only win Minnesota if he wins the electoral college by about 30-50 votes anyway, in which case Minnesota won’t matter. Minnesota is a very dovish state. This is largely a national security election. Minnesota also tends to prefer liberal Democrats like Mondale, Dukakis, Kerry, and Obama over “centrist” Democrats like the Clintons.
May 26th, 2008 at 2:12 pm
The only way Democrats are competitive in the south are when they run conservative democrats.
May 26th, 2008 at 2:14 pm
Bunning was nuts though. He skipped out on debates for meetings that didn’t exist, started saying loony things and basically took a whole bottle of crazy pills during that election.
May 26th, 2008 at 2:17 pm
McCain should not worry about Minnesota. Of the thre groups supporting Clinton, clearly, the reagan Democrats are voting McCain. Women and Latino’s are the groups that may rally to Obama eventually. McCain must do something to keep one of these two groups from going to Obama. Pawlenty/Minnestoa does not help him with that.
May 26th, 2008 at 2:18 pm
If I was John McCain’s chief strategist, my first-tier targets would be CO, the more conservative of the two Maine CDs, MA (there is an upset possibility, and a lot of the media market covers New Hampshire), MI, NV, NH, NM, OH, PA, VA, and WI. My second-tier targets would be CT, IA, MN, NJ, OR, and WA. I would also keep my eye on FL and MO. Right now we are favored there, but they’re two states you can’t take for granted.
May 26th, 2008 at 2:20 pm
I think barring serious changes or extenuating circumstances, only 4 states that Kerry won are in play this go around (i.e, Mac has at least a 25% chance of winning) . Penn, Michigan, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire. That amounts to 51 electoral votes. I think 9 states that Bush won in 2008 corss this threshhold (Obama has at least a 25% chance of winning). Ohio, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, South Dakota, and North Dakota. Those amount to 80 electoral votes. I say barring extenuating circumstances because I think, for instance, that Pawlenty could put Minnesota within that minimum threshhold (a 25% chance of winning) and I tend to think a blue-collar ethnic Catholic like Carcieri could put both RI and MA in play. Additionally, someone like Bob Kerrey could put Nebraska in play (it’s fairly close as is). So you gotta figure we’re playing with a universe of 131 electoral votes, with another 25 possibly coming into play depending on who the the Veep is. If the GOP can roughly split that 131, we’ll win. That’s not an outlandish task, but not an easy one either. And it seems to me that anyone who can shore up a significant number of those electoral votes (as Pawlenty can in Iowa, SD, ND, and Wisconsin while moving Minnesota from certain loss to likely loss) or as Ridge can (Penn and Ohio) must be taken fairly seriously.
May 26th, 2008 at 2:21 pm
Kristofer, you’re correct, the last non-Southern Democrat to win ANY Southern state was Hubert Humphrey in 1968, and all he won was Texas, LBJ’s home, and just barely. Even if you accept the liberal premise that Al Gore won Florida (which I don’t accept), Al Gore was a Southerner too! That’s why I have a tough time seeing Obama take Florida or Virginia, but these rules are made to be broken.
May 26th, 2008 at 2:21 pm
What about Delaware? Didn’t that used to be a swing state? It is little but a couple of New England states can make up a loss in Colorado or New Mexico.
May 26th, 2008 at 2:26 pm
this should end pawlenty as a legit vp contender. mccain-romney or mccain-lieberman
May 26th, 2008 at 2:27 pm
It’s not a New England state for one thing. It is a Northeastern state. Delaware always was a swing state. In the Bush-Dukakis race for example, it actually went bigger for Bush than the average state. It leaned Republican because of the Dupont family, which is waning in influence. Gore and Kerry both won it handily, and Obama won it in the primary. Obama led 50-41 in the most recent poll. It’s a cheap state though since it’s very small, but if the people lean liberal, they lean liberal. It is a lot easier to convince rural white voters in Ohio to vote for McCain than it is to convince wealthy left-of-center voters in Delaware to do so, particularly against Obama.
May 26th, 2008 at 2:29 pm
I don’t know Clarence, you put Carcieri on a ticket with McCain and I think alot of those smaller Northeastern states could be put in play.
May 26th, 2008 at 2:31 pm
Jonathan #14: “Many Dem’s (but not all) have started to rally to their candidate, just like the GOP did in March.”
This article offers a very good refutation of that point:
http://taylormarsh.com/archives_view.php?id=27781
The point of the article is that Obama’s results have dropped significantly among every demographic other than blacks since the point when he was anointed the winner by the media — exactly the opposite of what happened to McCain.
May 26th, 2008 at 2:32 pm
I’ll also say that I’m far from convinced by these numbers; this poll also shows Pawlenty with a 46% “good or excellent” rating, which is the generally analogous to “approval” in polls. This compares to the notoriously liberally biased Minnesota Monitor poll a week ago, that showed Pawlenty at 55-38, approval/disapproval.
May 26th, 2008 at 2:53 pm
If we’re going to make a play for Pennsylvania we may as well buy ads in Delaware media markets.
Northern Delaware (New Castle County) is basically an extension of the Philly suburbs.
Southern Delaware (Kent and Sussex Counties) are basically Republican areas with a heavy military presence (Dover Air Force base).
Delaware actually ought to be a toss-up between McCain and Obama.
May 26th, 2008 at 3:00 pm
Matt, “this should end pawlenty as a legit vp contender. mccain-romney or mccain-lieberman”
Has anyone read Romney’s approval ratings? He is in Clinton country. Why do some Republicans like they guy so much? McCain must at least pick someone with disaproval ratings below 40%! Romney’s primary loss was self-inflicted. The hunting storey, the changes in policy positions during the primary, etc…….In addition to this, Romney tactics againt Thompson and Huckabee in Iowa have not made him very popular in the GOP leadership circle.
May 26th, 2008 at 3:03 pm
“Carcieri ”
People in Mass. and Conneticut do not even know who he is. RI will not have enough EC votes to have an impact. Although a likeable man, Carcieri is not ready for the stage.
May 26th, 2008 at 3:05 pm
#25:
There is also an open gubernatorial race in Delaware this year. A strong McCain effort could help down the ticket. To use a war analogy, states like Delaware could be a raid against the Democrats, while the big battles and sieges occur in Ohio, Wisconsin, Colorado, etc.
May 26th, 2008 at 3:09 pm
Kristofer:
Have you thought about going all in with a petition effort for mccain-palin? Have you considered doing something akin to voteboth.com?
May 26th, 2008 at 3:15 pm
Jonathon, I think it’s very likely Republicans will take the Delaware Governorship.
Minner only won by 5% last time. Since then she’s become very unpopular. The next Democrat will have her mess around their next.
May 26th, 2008 at 3:18 pm
Kristofer #27:
It’s not just about name recognition. Carcieri is a Catholic and Italian, which can help McCain in places like NJ. He also governed a very liberal state as a conservative, bring executive experience. He has no noticable Republican enemies. The only thing he doesn’t help McCain with is the age issue. In other words, Carcieri is a safe pick that can put the Dem’s on the defensive electorally speaking.
May 26th, 2008 at 3:19 pm
I know these numbers may not look to good but its still very early and we are still about 6 months from election day so these numbers will have “pawlenty” of time to change. I still think that the best pick that McCain can make is Tim Pawlenty, he doesnt have high disapproval ratings and is a pretty popular governor. He would be a very good pick and conservatives would be happy that he’s on the ticket and these numbers have plenty of time to come back up for McCain in Minnesota.
McCain/Pawlenty
May 26th, 2008 at 3:24 pm
DE is going to be tough because Wilmington votes like Philly and DE has a high AA population.
May 26th, 2008 at 3:26 pm
#33:
I think it can be done (winning DE). I checked and it turns out the guy who ran against Gov Miner last time, Bill Lee, is the GOP nominee again. Like Bush-Martinez in 2004, McCain and Lee can perhaps pull each other over the finish line and win the state.
May 26th, 2008 at 3:27 pm
IR-MN.
Well, I have a web site for her. I am production and election video for her (give me two weeks I’ll distrubute. It is in pre-production).
She is my first choice.
May 26th, 2008 at 3:33 pm
McCain just needs Colorado and Ohio. He should just camp out in Ohio for the next two months.
May 26th, 2008 at 3:43 pm
Do you ever get the feeling that Clinton knows something about Obama that we are going to find out about in the fall?
May 26th, 2008 at 3:52 pm
Kris:
What I’m trying to get at is that if a petition gets enough signatures, someone might take notice. Right now, there’s no reason why McCain should consider Palin. But if enough people sign the petition, he may give her another look. If people like Rush or Jason Lewis pick up a petition site, things might take off for her. The palinforvp petition hasn’t been touted as much as it should.
May 26th, 2008 at 4:08 pm
Bushboy,
Yea i think about that all the time, and i really feel that Clinton knows Obama will not be able to defeat McCain in November and that’s why she’s staying in until the last possible chance has gone.
May 26th, 2008 at 4:10 pm
OMG. The Same Kectury poll shows Hillary would be McCain by 9%, 51-42%
May 26th, 2008 at 4:28 pm
I have no problem with a Carcieri pick. I’m not sure that there will be a huge rally for Obama. He is basically the inevitable nominee now and is almost tied with McCain. I predict Barack Obama will not be ahead in the polls for one day from September 15 to the election.
May 26th, 2008 at 4:35 pm
IR-MN……interesting suggestion. What we require is immediate press coverage. Designing a site with a petition and trying to circulate will not do enough. We probably only have two weeks. Palin has done an excellent job making the media with her national press coverage (filinf a law-suit against the Bush Administration was brilliant).
Honestly, a PAC is needed. The fact is, the mere creation of a PAC would provide media attention, and fundraising $ could go to strategic newspaper ad’s in the DC area, which also would garner attention. The pro-Huckabee team were brilliant with their anti-Romeny PAC and ad’s. I am trying to contribute by producting a campaign video with some former activist friends of mine.
But…..the fact that McCain has leaked that the vetting process in underway, leads me to believe his list of “20″ is now much shorter, and the lawyer is now doing his work.
May 26th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
Clarence is correct. If Obama is not 15% ahead in the polls in June, something is wrong with his campaign. Kerry was ahead by double-digits at that point.
May 26th, 2008 at 4:45 pm
I think that McCain picking a VP early is a good idea, what does everyone else think about that? I know that John Kerry picked Edwards in early July and i think it might not be a bad idea to announce in late June or early July, that way you go ahead and get it out of the way and start campaigning together around the country.
May 26th, 2008 at 4:56 pm
Bryan, yes I agree, but only if Obama has the nomination wrapped up. The press seem to think Obama has a easier time with his pic, but I do not agree. Women are upset. Latino’s, working class men and Jews are polling unusually heavy for McCain, and most importantly, Obama has a serious National security credentials issue. McCain just needs someone younger (and other than Dole, that includes every possible VP candidate).
May 26th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
Bushboy:
I hope you’re wrong. I still have hope for Sarah. If Bobby can be considered, then Sarah should be too. Your comments are very insightful. I don’t think he’ll pick his VP before Obama, which may give us some time. If Obama picks a moderate white male, which he probably will, picking a female becomes much more important. The mere fact that some radio commentators have picked up on Sarah should’ve helped a little. Still, it’s never too late to get started on something….
May 26th, 2008 at 5:03 pm
Palin brings little to the ticket, and has a new child (w/ medical conditions) to care for.
May 26th, 2008 at 5:09 pm
IR-MN, please do not get me wrong, I am not saying she doesn’t she will not be selected, I only think that McCain is too far in the process to have any impact at this point. Jindal is not being considered. McCain would get hammed by the press, if he selected someone who had been Governor for four months. Only the press is saying that Jindal is being considered.
In fact, McCain’s entire team has admitted that only McCain knows who the candidates are, and none of them are part of the process. Look for the Christian Science Monitor video of Charlie Black at their lunch-in. The guy has no clue of the names.
By the way, does anyone know what McCain’s call sign was? I could not find it in his book.
May 26th, 2008 at 5:18 pm
http://www.act-blog.co.nr
With all due respect, that was an extremely sexist comment!
Obama has two young girls and a wife who is a CEO and campaigns for him at the same time. Who is raising his children M-F?
RFK had 11 children, was AG and acted as VP at the same time, then ran for President, and for John Engler to have triplets while in office and still surved for another 7 years as Governor of Michigan.
This is exactly why 20 million women have voted for Hilary in the primary, because of attitudes as such.
May 26th, 2008 at 5:26 pm
Matthew, you seem to be not accepting of the fact that Pawlenty is showing himself to be a significant drag on the ticket with the polling. I know you’ve been saying its because people don’t know him. First of all, we don’t know what the reasons are; secondly, that’s the problem, the average voter doesn’t have the foggiest idea who Pawlenty, Jindal, Palin, or even Crist is. I’ve noticed Pawlenty has fallen back to second place on intrade.com, and Huckabee has moved up significantly. I think its safe to say its going to be Mitt, Huckabee, or Pawlenty. At this point it doesn’t appear that Tim can deliver a state for us. Huckabee is doing a little better on the ticket than Mitt, but the states they started with are all midwest or eastern. Wait til they poll the west where huckabee is going to be a huge drag.
BTW, not to divert attention to myself, but I could use some more prayers. I have a large tumor in the left kidney, that they assume is malignant. No matter what religion you are, please say a few prayers for me. I’ll be operated on in a couple of weeks.
May 26th, 2008 at 5:45 pm
I wish you the best Illinoisguy. I hope you come out of surgery as vibrant as our future president.
May 26th, 2008 at 5:49 pm
That may not be saying much!
May 26th, 2008 at 5:52 pm
Yikes.
Best wishes ILG, get better soon.
I’m going to need a pro-Romeny person to cover for me at different times this summer.
May 26th, 2008 at 8:12 pm
Would you all stop saying that this reduces Pawlenty’s prospects as a VP choice?
Did no one read my article the other day?
May 26th, 2008 at 8:13 pm
Kristofer — Like it or not, people still want to see women acting as mothers and expect them to be the primary caretaker.
Sexist or not, it may be a problem if the goal is to win.
May 26th, 2008 at 8:39 pm
Alex, just because you write an article doesn’t mean we are supposed to line up behind you and agree with you. My opinion is that it hurts Pawlenty’s chances, and intrade has swung significantly since this came out.
May 26th, 2008 at 8:55 pm
Best wishes, Illinoisguy, we’ll all be pulling for you.
May 26th, 2008 at 10:16 pm
Alex, just because you write an article doesn’t mean we are supposed to line up behind you and agree with you. My opinion is that it hurts Pawlenty’s chances, and intrade has swung significantly since this came out.
I don’t see how anyone can disagree with the fact that VPs are never chosen for their swing state value.
May 26th, 2008 at 10:25 pm
I can’t see any reason for believing Intrade has any predictive value at all in regard to the VP selection.
May 26th, 2008 at 10:35 pm
Yea and John Kerry chose Edwards so that he could compete in North Carolina, how did that work out for him? The fact is that Pawlenty is just a great governor and a great man and is a rising star in the Republican party. I think that Huckabee and Romney would be bad picks b/c both are pretty polarizing men b/c alot of people dont like romney and alot of people dont like huckabee, so i think that eliminates both of them. So i think the choice is down to 3 people with a couple of other curve ball picks, and the top 3 i think are Pawlenty,Crist and Brownback with Bobby Jindal and Sarah Palin the two outsiders looking in, but if i had to bet then i would put all my money on it being either Pawlenty or Crist IMO.
May 26th, 2008 at 11:26 pm
I’ll never vote for McCain with Crist on the ticket.
May 26th, 2008 at 11:37 pm
Yea and John Kerry chose Edwards so that he could compete in North Carolina, how did that work out for him? The fact is that Pawlenty is just a great governor and a great man and is a rising star in the Republican party. I think that Huckabee and Romney would be bad picks b/c both are pretty polarizing men b/c alot of people dont like romney and alot of people dont like huckabee, so i think that eliminates both of them. So i think the choice is down to 3 people with a couple of other curve ball picks, and the top 3 i think are Pawlenty,Crist and Brownback with Bobby Jindal and Sarah Palin the two outsiders looking in, but if i had to bet then i would put all my money on it being either Pawlenty or Crist IMO.
I addressed that in the article: Edwards is the exception that proves the rule. He was the first VP in a long, long time chosen to shore up support in a specific state or region and it totally flopped.
No one should choose a VP for a specific state or region. It’s narrow-minded and short-sighted.
May 26th, 2008 at 11:38 pm
No way it’s Brownback. Won’t be Palin because of her kid.
May 26th, 2008 at 11:41 pm
If credentials were what we’re talking about, Mitt Romney has the VP in the bag. If credentials were what we’re talking about, Romney would have been the nominee, hands down. We were talking about electability then (ask the California voters). And we must be talking about what he brings to the table as far as electability now, otherwise, Romney takes this thing hands down. He’s the most talented man to run for President in over a 100 years. The only problem is that too many Republican’s are RINOs.
May 26th, 2008 at 11:55 pm
If credentials were what mattered, Rudy would be the nominee. Rudy ran the nation’s 4th largest government so well that NYC didn’t even LOOK the same after. No one has ever done that with a state or metropolis in our nation’s history.
He also vowed to, and did, virtually eliminate the mafia in his previous position, when nobody thought it even possible.
Mitt Romney is a great businessman but he does not have the political accomplishments anywhere near to Rudy’s. He could’ve started by getting re-elected.
May 27th, 2008 at 12:00 am
Mitt Romney is a great businessman but he does not have the political accomplishments anywhere near to Rudy’s. He could’ve started by getting re-elected.
And be like George Allen? Hah!
Mitt was at least smart enough to know when to bail out. He may be a coward, but he was a smart coward.
May 27th, 2008 at 8:04 am
Rudy did some things right in NYC, especially the crime clean up thing. Considering his own father, great-uncle, and father’s cousin were heavily into the mafia, I applaud him for doing so. He certainly had an integral knowledge of the inner workings of it. He was completely on the wrong side of the illegal immigrant issue, actually inviting them to come to his city. He has no core values when it comes to human life, except that its ok for a mother to abort her baby at any time for any reason. The debt in NC got worse while he was Mayor, not better. He nominated liberal judges like crazy, about 90% of them Democrats. His campaign fell flat on its face because of Rudy himself. Everywhere Rudy went and applied money, he went down in the polls. He was a fatally flawed candidate from the start, not even being able to take advantage of his name recognition.
May 27th, 2008 at 8:59 am
I have to agree with you Illinoisguy, great Mayors do not necessarily make great Presidents.
May 27th, 2008 at 10:02 am
> “… great Mayors do not necessarily make great Presidents.”
You’re right, Joe. Of course, that goes double for mediocre governors.
May 27th, 2008 at 10:31 am
To defend Rudy, 90% of the judges in NYC are Liberal, so he did not have a great selection.
May 27th, 2008 at 10:45 am
BobH:
On principle, I agree with you, but perhaps we disagree as to what is a good, bad or an indifferent Governor. All thing being equal, it is easy to sell a Governor to the Public than a mayor, but there are exceptions. On another note, I have to agree with you that Intertrade will not be choosing the VP, betters can make a good guess, but all we can do is guess.
May 27th, 2008 at 11:22 am
#70 Not only that, but a Democrat dominated panel selects the short list from which the Mayor must select.
This was stated throughout the campaign, and those using that change now are simply slimy liars — and they no it. No surprise they are Romney supporters.
May 27th, 2008 at 11:47 am
Interesting post on the Romney video comments.
Mitt Romney was the first Mass. Governor in US history not to win the New Hampshire primary. That is amazing. It shows you how bad a candidate he was. I liked Romney prior, becasue he is (was) a socially libertarian Republican. But when he flipped his positions during the primary, he lost my respect.
To show you how bad a candidate he was, he made immigration his main campaign theme the two weeks prior to Florida. All the Cuban Americans, whose families were refugees from Castro got worried about Romney. McCain (smart enough to leave that alone) got to Flordia and talked about being in a fighter jet on the Oriskany during the Bay of Pigs crisis ready to go to war with Castro.