The Candidates
Pew Research 2008 General Election Poll, conducted May 21st-25th, 2008
- Barack Obama 47%
- John McCain 44%
This poll sampled registered voters.
Politico notes Obama’s drastic decline among white women over the past few months:
Barack Obama’s favorability ratings among white women has declined significantly in recent months, particularly among Democrats and independents, presenting an immediate obstacle for the likely Democratic nominee as he moves to shore up his party’s base.
According to a new report by The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, half of white women now have a negative perception of Obama.
Forty-nine percent of white women view Obama unfavorably, while only 43 percent hold a favorable opinion. In February, 36 percent of these women viewed Obama unfavorably, while 56 percent had a positive perception of the likely Democratic nominee.
Over the same period, Democratic white women’s negative view of Obama increased from 21 percent to 35 percent, while their positive view decreased from 72 percent to 60 percent — roughly the same rate as white women overall.
White men, in general and among Democrats, have shown only a slight drop-off in their perception of Obama — one-third of the shift seen in white women. About 20 percent of Democratic white men have an unfavorable view of Obama, a figure which has remained stable since February.
Pew also found that among self-described Clinton supporters, the negative shift against Obama is more severe among women than among men.
Still unknown is whether white women’s support for Clinton would translate into problems for Obama in the general election.
More evidence in the case for Sarah Palin?
May 31st, 2008 at 6:40 pm
McCain/Palin vs. McCain/Jendel: There’s been noted buzz of late on rising GOP star Louisiana Gov Bobby Jindal as a McCain prospective Veep. Certainly Jindal is more than very good, However, I believe there’s some “strategerie” going on here. The “real” beneficiary of the Jindal talk is the other rising GOP star, Alaska Gov Sarah Palin. Palin’s got everything that Jindal has (new/exciting, wildly popular, ethics and spending reformer, core conservative etc.) and more — mother of 5 w/remarkable bio, she’s 8 yrs older than Jindal, Alaska energy issue, and set to garner the disenfranchised female Hillary voter (I don’t believe Dem leaders can dump Obama).
Getting Jindal’s name out first — at Team McCain’s BBQ for instance — sets the stage for the obvious choice, Palin. For example, albeit Rush Limbaugh introduced Palin’s name, and later Jindal’s as good Veep choices, of late Rush has been praising the name of Jindal while on his very same shows discussing at great length the frustrated female Hillary voter and the global warming hysteria/need for energy development, without mentioning Palin’s name as the obvious beneficiary of those two issues. Rush walks a fine line, introducing Palin, yet can’t, at least yet, reiterate much, knowing that his praises may be counter-productive to many a swing, moderate and/or formerly Dem voter (who’s against Obama and switching to McCain). Moreover, while I feel that Palin has more real accomplishment, experience and qualification than Obama (and Hillary combined, albeit w/Obama the bar is pretty low), the only potential argument against Palin is she’s a newbie to the national scene. By having Jindal out there first as a VP prospect “passing” the “experience” and “new to the national scene” test, implicitly passes Palin as well. (For that matter Palin’s got as much if not more experience and accomplishment than Florida Gov Crist who’s only been Gov for 2 yrs — and the media has been touting Crist as a VP prospect.)
That’s my thinking at least.
May 31st, 2008 at 6:44 pm
MEMO TO MCCAIN: Here’s an important piece of advice: If it looks like it’s going to be McCain/Palin anyway (and that should be a “no brainer” for Team McCain), McCain should announce NOW or VERY SOON, rather than later towards the convention. There’s currently a growing chorus for Obama/Hillary (as VP) ticket (in fact the Dems are likely aware of the Palin phenomenon). If the GOP waits while movement for Hillary as VP grows — even worse until after it is solidified that Hillary will/could be VP pick — selecting Palin will be portrayed by Dems/liberal media more as a reaction by GOP selecting its own female (overshawdoing Palin’s own remarkable assets), rather than McCain taking the lead on this. Selecting Palin now or early (contrary to the punditocracy) will mean McCain will be seen as driving the course of this campaign overwhelmingly, and the DEMS will be seen as merely reacting. And, there’s absoultely no down-side to this because even if Hillary is a no-go as VP for Obama, the GOP gains by acting early. McCain the maverick. Palin the maverick. Do it now!
There’s no reason, and actually substantial negative, in McCain waiting to see what the Dems do first insofar as his picking Palin as VP, because, no matter who Obama picks, Palin is by far (and I mean far) the best pick for McCain and the GOP, especially in this time of GOP woes. The GOP can be seen as the party of real ‘change’ (albeit I hate that mantra, change, change, bla bla), while not really having to change from GOP core conservative values, which Palin more than represents.
In light of the current oil/energy situation, as well as the disaffected female Hillary voters situation, and growing focus on McCain’s age and health, Palin is more than perfect — now.
(Perhaps Team McCain is already on to this.)
May 31st, 2008 at 7:05 pm
“This poll sampled registered voters.”
…which is why Obama is in the lead. Registered voters are more liberal. That is the same reason why Giuliani and McCain performed better in registered samples than likely samples.
—
Also, can someone fill me in on why Palin is such a great pick? McCain needs, primarily, four things in a VP: executive experience, strong conservative support, economic know-how, and someone who people can see as President themselves.
How does Palin fufill those, and how does she do it better than a slew of more obvious choices, such as Huck (conservative support), Romney (executive experience), Portman (economic know-how), etc. All of those choices have one or more of those four things McCain needs.
I fail to see how Palin is a better pick.
May 31st, 2008 at 7:59 pm
act, you are wrong. palin actually covers all 4 better then anyone, plus she adds something new. here is a break down of her strengths vs other leading vp’s:
mike huckabee: arkansas lt. governor for 3 years, governor for 11 years
tim pawlenty: city councilman for 4 years, minnesota governor for 6 years, pro life, chairman of national governors association
mitt romney: vice president of bain & company for 6 years, CEO of Bain Capital for 14 years, CEO of 2002 winter olympics, massachusetts governor for 4 years,
charlie crist: state senator for 7 years, deputy sec. of the department of business and reuglation of florida, education commissioner, attorney general of florida, florida governor for 2 years
john thune: congressman for 6 years, united states senator of south dakota for 4 years
rob portman: congressman for 12 years of ohio, u.s. trade representative for 1 year, director of management and budget 1 year
rudy giulaini: associate deputy attorney general, associate attorney general, united states attorney southern distract of NY, mayor of new york city for 8 years
sarah palin: city coucilwoman for 2 terms, board of valley hospital, 8 years as mayor of wasilla city, president of alaska mayors association, ethics commissioner of alaska oil and gas conservation commission, alaska governor for 2 years
it is clear palin has enough experience to compete with the other vp contenders. she also is 100% pro life, anti-gay marriage, a life-long NRA member, and a mother of 5 (including a son in the army). on energy, which considering gas prices, climate change, and a desire to be energy independent, is one of the most important domestic issues this cycle, palin is an expert on alaska’s vast oil and natural gas reserves, serving on its oil and gas commission and creating AIGA. children’s healthcare and special needs children are also an area of expertise for palin, as the mother of a new born son with down syndrome. and of course, she would be the first women ever nominated by the GOP for president or vice president, bringing an intangible buzz and excitement to the campaign that no other veep could.
May 31st, 2008 at 8:17 pm
She’s the better pick because Republicans need a fresh face on the ticket to help overcome the
rather immense hostility the general populace has for our party. With the political winds and
history–rarely does a party win 3 elections in a row–at the Democrat’s back and in our face that
is a characteristic that is absolutely essential for a Republican to win this election. We must
attract as broad a portion of the electorate as possible as our base has shrunk and theirs has
grown, which means we need someone who can be appealing to independents as well as hold on to the
conservative base. While many candidates can do one or the other, only one candidate can do both
and that is Sarah Palin.
As for executive experience, Palin may not have been Governor of Alaska for very long, but in her
first year she took on the corrupt political machine of her own party and won. She has also been
tough on wasteful spending almost single handedly killing the Bridge to Nowhere project.
Republicans need to show that they are serious about uprooting governmental corruption and
wasteful spending. A McCain/Palin ticket sends that message and will be a wonderful contrast and
rebuke to all of Obama’s apologists who excuse his involvement in the shady politics of the
Chicago machine, saying that he had no choice.
And don’t forget all those women who feel like they got cheated out of their turn which had
finally come at long last after over 200 years! As there is no telling how long it will be before
another woman has a shot at the White House, this can turn McCain’s age into something of an
advantage. For if he is elected, in the back of their minds, they will know Palin’s most likely
next in line as early as 2012. 4 years versus 12, 24, 32 years? I’m guessing that will make more
independent and moderate Democratic women open to voting for McCain than there would otherwise be.
May 31st, 2008 at 8:53 pm
Not going to be Palin!
How can you claim Edwards was selfish for staying in the race because his wife was sick, yet think Palin should devote her life to running for VP (and maybe even winning) with a special child??
Let’s not be hypocritical guys.
May 31st, 2008 at 9:31 pm
While I’m gaining more and more respect for Palin as time goes by, it should be noted that we don’t really need somebody to ensure that we carry Alaska. Also, her limited resume undercuts our campaign theme that Obama simply isn’t adequately prepared to be president. Now, if the Dems put a woman in the VP slot, Palin would make a lot of sense for us, but if they pick Edwards, Strickland, or Rendell, which is probable, we need a little more gravitas on the ticket; i.e., Romney, Pawlenty, Huckabee, or Portman.
May 31st, 2008 at 9:55 pm
Edwards has even less chance than Palin!
If Obama wants Penn he picks Rendall.
If Obama wants Ohio he picks Ted.
If Obama wants Indiana he picks Evan.
If Obama wants Virginia he pick Jim/Tim.
If Obams wants Georgia he picks Sam.
If Obama wants all of thm he picks Hill.
May 31st, 2008 at 10:01 pm
Dave,
I first heard the term grvaitas in reference to Dick Cheney.
Now, Cheney was a former WH chief of staff, minority whip in the house, and SecDef during the Gulf War and the end of the Cold War. A whole career in DC and at the top levels of the govt and the military. That’s gravitas.
With all due respect, how does a 1 term governor of MA like Romney have gravitas? Or a gov or AR or MN? Or Portman, a guy who’s claim to fame is heading a dept that 99.9% of the population probably has no idea even exists and if they did couldn’t really tell you what it does. Also, I don’t think anyone associated with the economic team of the Bush WH is a smart pick.
The only potential VP out there that has gravitas is Powell. I think he’d be a fine choice.
But to say Palin doesn’t have gravitas and then claim that Huckabee or Pawlenty do? Come On.
Also, if Obama has a woman VP Palin is useless. The dems and independents will have their woman to vote for, it’ll look like McCain is just following and needed a woman because the dems have one too.
The point is for McCain to take the lead, shock the world, and change the game. Then Obama looks like a follower if he picks a woman, and outside of Clinton, there’s no woman he can really pick anyway.
May 31st, 2008 at 10:06 pm
One thing to consider about Palin, at least by political geeks like myself: Alaska’s Lt. Governor, Sean Parnell, is running against Don Young in our GOP primary for Young’s congressional seat. The elections for both offices (pres and congress) will be held at the same time. This means, should Parnell beat Young (we can only hope!!) and win the general as well, the Gov’s office would be vacant and no Lt. Gov would be in place to assume the higher office. I have no idea what happens then in Alaskan state government. Article 3, Section 13, of the AK state constitution states simply that:
“Provision shall be made by law for succession to the office of governor and for an acting governor in the event that the lieutenant governor is unable to succeed to the office or act as governor. No election of a lieutenant governor shall be held except at the time of electing a governor.”
What that provision is, I’m still trying to ascertain. I’m sure this has already been under discussion among more important people than me in this state. It sure would make for an interesting chapter of political history.
May 31st, 2008 at 11:07 pm
carly fiorna would be better then romney. just as good with economics and business, without the lousey failed 1 term as governor to weigh her down.
May 31st, 2008 at 11:13 pm
carly fiorina would be just as good as palin in my opinon. even though she she has never been in government, she has been one of the most prominent female business leaders in the country, she is strong, brilliant, and very versed on economics, running an even larger company then romney. palin or fiorina would be excellent and help mccain scoop hillary voters.
May 31st, 2008 at 11:16 pm
Carly Fiorna would be painted as a CEO who sent jobs overseas then took a golden parachute for herself.
Fair or not, it’d cost McCain any chance in Ohio and Michigan.
May 31st, 2008 at 11:24 pm
he has to seriously consider taking a woman, the woman’s vote is so charged up about clinton they could deliver a blow that obama cant rebound from.
May 31st, 2008 at 11:34 pm
jim says “But to say Palin doesn’t have gravitas and then claim that Huckabee or Pawlenty do? Come On.”
Thank you, jim, for making that point.
And explain to me why the pundits name Crist as being on McCain’s short list (who hasn’t been a governor any longer than Palin, and who actually has less executive experience than Palin), yet those same pundits claim that Palin doesn’t have enough experience. Do I smell a double standard?
If McCain is going to choose a woman for VP, he needs to do it before Obama beats him to it. It’s way better for McCain to be seen as enthusiastically choosing a woman than waiting and be seen as “reluctantly” choosing a woman for VP and a follower.
May 31st, 2008 at 11:45 pm
Meg Whitman doesn’t have Carly’s downsides. Also she is strongly pro-life.
May 31st, 2008 at 11:53 pm
obama cant take a non-hillary woman. the hillary voters will be even more antagonized.
May 31st, 2008 at 11:54 pm
Ironically, Crist hurt his chances when his family changed the name from Christodoulas to Crist and removed the h.
If his name was Charlie Christ, he’d be a shoo-in.
McCain/Christ, there’s no way that ticket would ever lose.
It’s amazing we’re so concerned about the VP choice. I don’t remember it being that important before. I mean was anyone excited by Jack Kemp? He was an awful choice. Quayle? Ditto. Even Cheney I don’t think anyone cared about.
According to Novak’s latest, W and Rove are pushing Romney on McCain who is resisting. I think W and Karl want Mitt so that the ticket will lose and the road will be open for Jeb in 2012 or 2016. In any event, those are the last guys I’d be listening to right now.
June 1st, 2008 at 12:27 am
Years of experience isn’t going to be important for the VP this year, especially with Obama as a presidential candidate with just two years of on the job training in national poilitics. It’s what you do with the time that matters.
Palin will serve an important roll for the GOP as a female candidate who isn’t seen as just a “token” member of her gender added to the ticket. The GOP needs to seriously start recruiting new non-white and non-male voters. Name-dropping JC Watts as our best efforts at minority recruitment just doesn’t cut it anymore. Palin on the ticket shows the country that there really are non-white male GOP politicians worthy of their voting consideration due to more than just their appearance.
I think Palin would be just fine for McCain, but I’d hate to see her leave AK.
Interesting sidenote: Palin on the ticket could help Ted Stevens retain his Senate seat by getting even more AK Republicans out to vote (especially if Lt. Gov Parnell beats Rep. Don Young in the primary and runs in the general, allowing AK voters to send two anti-corruption, good-government Republicans to DC). On the other hand, Palin is a crusader against corruption (another huge plus for McCain), and is known to look somewhat unkindly towards Senator Ted, so that may indirectly hurt Stevens’ shot at another term.
June 1st, 2008 at 12:35 am
16 Metro. . . I love Meg as well, but have you heard anything about her running for Governor of California in 2010? My sister in San Jose says she’s heard some recent rumors to that effect.
June 1st, 2008 at 12:39 am
McCain would be wise to put a woman on the ticket.
I never believed that women voted for other women in a disproportionate manner until this year. Seeing every middle aged and older woman I know crawl over broken glass to vote for Hillary, and then treat you like you just forgot their birthday when you disagree, was truly an educational experience. As such, the best way for McCain to pick up angry white women who feel that Barack Obama denied them their moment in history is to select a female veep.
Potential female veeps I’d like to see on the ticket:
1) Sarah Palin: would articulate conservatism in a new fresh way to excite the base and attract the center
2) Jodi Rell: would help in the NE, and with pro-choice Hillary women
3) Linda Lingle: Jewish, would help with pro-choice Hillary women
4) Condi Rice: Still more popular than Bush and friends, Americans have always thought Condi means well. Would help with women and steal Obama’s thunder.
5) Meg Whitman: economic powerhouse
Potential female veeps who don’t belong anywhere near the ticket:
1) KBH, who pisses off the base and who’s too establishment for the center
2) Liddy Dole. See KBH.
3) Christie Whitman/Olympia Snowe/Susan Collins. I mean, come on.
June 1st, 2008 at 1:02 am
I think Obama almost has to add a woman to the ticket, if for no other reason than to tell female voters that his dislike of Hillary has nothing to do with gender. Otherwise, Ferraro’s allusions to Obama being sexist start to ring true. I think Obama-Sebelius would be an amazingly powerful ticket. If McCain adds Palin (or any other female) to the GOP side, Obama would be committing political suicide by choosing an older white guy for his #2.
June 1st, 2008 at 1:12 am
National polls are essentially meaningless. We do not have a national electorate, we have an electoral college. One can be ahead or behind in the national polls and get a different result among the EC. This far out, before the party conventions, its silly to even consider them. This doesn’t discount the state by state polls. While it is still early, a decent state result is more telling as to how the campaign is going and where to devote more assets.
June 1st, 2008 at 1:19 am
Obama will not add a woman. The guy seriously needs someone who has foreign policy experience, he has been arguing with McCain over foreign policy the last two weeks, and McCain’s numbers have been going up (according the RCP, it is now in the margin of error, two weeks ago, Obama was up by 5%).
After seeing the Ferraro video tonight, I am more convinced that Palin is the better option for McCain. My aunt in NJ is really upset, she balmed the “sexist” media over the Clinton defeat, but after the “Sweetie” comment by Obama, she now includes him.
June 1st, 2008 at 1:30 am
well webb is out, if obama picks webb the women will eat him alive. all the sexist comments will come back full force. i think he will pick tim kaine, because kaine is loyal to him, helps in a swing state, and can reach working class whites. strickland is a clintonite. they wont put richardson on because black/brown is too much at once and he is a horrid debater. biden is a clown who no one takes seriously. dodd adds nothing but token white haired old guy. sebelius will enrage clinton voters further because she’s not hillary. mark warner wouldnt take a chance at giving up a sure thing senate seat, especially since he can run in 2012 if obama loses or challenge the vp in 2016 if he wins anyway, so no reason to ride coattails. nunn is too old and too conservative. edwards wont do it again, kerry wont either. general clark is a terrible campaigner. in the end i think its kaine.
June 1st, 2008 at 1:31 am
What was the “sweetie” comment???
June 1st, 2008 at 1:36 am
McCain would be crazy not to pick Palin from an electoral standpoint. She has the potential to take a huge chunk of Obama’s support, women voters.
Palin will go on Oprah and The View and Rachel Ray and the women will love her, she is folksy and has a hunky fisherman for a husband and a beautiful family and communicates ideas very well.
When she talks about raising a child with Down Syndrome, women will eat that up, and rightfully so, that is an amazing thing she chose to do when she didn’t have to.
Plus she’s conservative and can run rings around anyone when it comes to energy policy, a huge issue in this campaign.
Palin is the perfect pick to capitalize on the anger women like Ferraro are feeling.
June 1st, 2008 at 1:59 am
I think we’re underestimating the intelligence of female Democratic voters. They may be upset about Hillary losing, but they aren’t going to vote GOP en masse over it, Palin on the ticket or not. The question for Obama is whether he can motivate women to get out and vote at all. A female VP will not anger women more than they may be now. Someone like Sebelius (or any number of qualified Democratic women) would motivate women to go vote, and would help Obama get nearly all of Hillary’s support. I seriously doubt many women will enter the voting booth thinking “I hate Obama so much that not even a female VP will get me to forgive him for beating Hillary, so I’m voting for a Republican.” By November, reality will trump emotion, most Dems will vote for Obama, most Republicans will vote for McCain, and the Indies will help decide the election. Just as expected.
June 1st, 2008 at 7:30 am
Exactly!
And indies will vote on the war and the economy (and the environment to a small extent).
June 1st, 2008 at 12:28 pm
It’s not about them voting en masse.
Even if only 5% of them swing because a woman is on the ticket, that’s enough to win.
Bush got 55% of white women in 2004. He got 49% in 2000. That averages out to 52.5%.
I’d say that if McCain can clear 52.5% of white women he’ll win. So the question is what’s the best way for him to do that. There’s certainly a good argument to be made that having a woman on the ticket would put him in the best position.
June 5th, 2008 at 7:25 pm
[...] you recall, Pew found that Obama’s unfavorability rating among white women rose by 13% between February and [...]