June 2, 2008
Poll Alert: SurveyUSA Minnesota General Election Poll (Veepstakes Edition)
T-Paw helps turn Minnesota red:
SurveyUSA Minnesota General Election poll, conducted May 16th-18th, 2008.
- Barack Obama 47%
- John McCain 42%
Survey was conducted 5/16 - 5/18 (and not released until 6/1) of 600 registered voters, and has an MoE of 4.1%
Here’s the numbers with the Veeps included:
http://race42008.com/2008/06/02/poll-alert-surveyusa-minnesota-general-election-poll-veepstakes-edition/trackback/
June 2nd, 2008 at 3:15 pm
i think this is the first poll we’ve seem where pawlenty actually helps mccain. but i’m beginning to think minnesota is a lost cause.
June 2nd, 2008 at 3:16 pm
So Pawlenty really could flip MN? Wow.
June 2nd, 2008 at 3:16 pm
YES!!! Now this is what i’m talking about, i was dissapointed yesterday to see that Kavon has changed his pick from Pawlenty to Palin, now maybe he will switch back now that its clear that Pawlenty could help turn Minn. Red!!! This is great news for Tim Pawlenty….. I’ve said it before and i’m still saying it now…
McCain/ PAWLENTY! 08!!!
June 2nd, 2008 at 3:18 pm
MN is staying blue (unfortunately), dont let this excite you too much.
June 2nd, 2008 at 3:21 pm
Yes, but against the lesser known veeps.
He still loses against Obama/Edwards.
What these polls have told me is that Obama’s VP is important. He clearly does much better when he’s paired with an established name like Edwards, or Clinton than with unknowns like Sebelius or Rendell. If he takes Hagel McCain can start writing his inaugural now.
A lot of democrats and independents may not trust Obama but if he’s paired with an Edwards or Clinton they feel reassured.
However, Obama is in a bind. He won’t pick Edwards, and Clinton I still see as a long shot. If he does pick Clinton and wins, I guarantee you she’ll end up President by Christmas 2011 at the latest.
All the names floated like Richardson and Webb and Strickland and Kaine and Sebelius and otehrs are all unknown.
Webb has some nat’l security experience but he’s been in the Senate less than two years and can be a bit of a hothead.
Richardson makes the most sense with his background and being Hispanic. He’d help out big time in NM, CO, NV.
But Clinton supporters despise Judas Richardson, and he has a history of sexist and boorish behavior and comments. His selection could only further drive Clinton supporters and women from Obama. It’ll be interesting to see what he ends up doing.
June 2nd, 2008 at 3:24 pm
damn, now I have to eat crow. Still, I don’t trust this state. Snobama signs are everywhere.
June 2nd, 2008 at 3:24 pm
I agree that Minnesota will stay blue. For some reason they really seem to like Obama up there. Put your bets on turning Michigan if you ask me- we Wolverines are about to deliver a nice healthy 17 EV to the Republicans.
June 2nd, 2008 at 3:25 pm
Jim,
At this point everyone does better when paired with an established name. Not just Obama, but McCain as well. These polls are about as close to useless as anything I can imagine. The VP candidates will have plenty of time to introduce themselves to voters before the election.
Also-if Clinton was elected VP, how do you think she would be President by Dec. 2011?
June 2nd, 2008 at 3:27 pm
Only way McCain wins MN will be in a partial landslide (300-325+ EVs). WI, MI, IA, NM and PA will go red before MN
June 2nd, 2008 at 3:30 pm
How does that shyster, con-artist trial lawyer do so well in these polls?!
June 2nd, 2008 at 3:31 pm
Because he’s perceived as a moderate, when hes probably more liberal than Obama himself, if thats even possible.
June 2nd, 2008 at 3:33 pm
As much as I’d like to trumpet this poll, I must maintain consistency. McCain vs. Obama still does better then McCain/Pawlenty vs. Obama/Edwards. That said, with the exception of the Romney Michigan poll, this is the closest any McCain running mate, in any state, has gotten to the McCain vs. Obama baseline when Obama’s paired with Edwards. I still think Pawlenty’s the best choice, and certainly the only choice if we’re interested in targeting Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Iowa (which I fear will all be out of play otherwise), but this poll shows him to be moderately, but not wildly helpful in Minnesota.
June 2nd, 2008 at 3:39 pm
Bryan #3,
I actually did not change my pick. My post yesterday was meant to convey that I am no longer opposed to choosing Palin as Veep.
I actually do not have one person over all others that I would like to see be Veep. I think the best choices are: T-Paw, Powell, Rudy, Joementum, Sanford, Romney, Palin, and Ridge. Any of those would be a great choice.
June 2nd, 2008 at 3:43 pm
IR-MN #6,
Really? I live about 10 minutes from downtown and I hardly ever see any election stickers myself, Obama or otherwise…
In fact, the only yard sign I have seen so far was for Hillary.
June 2nd, 2008 at 3:50 pm
Kavon, Robbinsdale is more conservative than SW MPLS. Though I should be careful, it’s not like every yard has a Snobama sign, yet. Though I’ve seen enough bumper stickers to make me sick.
June 2nd, 2008 at 3:55 pm
Kavon,
I am quite concerned about MN. I live in extreme-GOP Carver County, and see Obama signs and stickers on a regular basis.
IR- do you live near Lake Harriet? It’s a beautiful area, but I wouldn’t expect anything less than Obamamia in that neck of the woods.
June 2nd, 2008 at 4:04 pm
He doesn’t flip the state with Edwards, and Mitt and Huckabee both flip it with everyone else.
So, once again, no gain with Pawlenty.
I wonder why they won’t do these polls out West. They only did California, nothing else….getting pretty fishy if you ask me.
June 2nd, 2008 at 4:08 pm
Iguy, c’mon.
Romney and Huck have far more national name recognition right now. Whoever the VP nominee is will also have that come Nov, but at this point in the cycle comparing Huck/Romney to a virtual unknown isn’t important. All it does is fuel the strange phenomenon of Huck and Romney supporters who won’t let it die.
June 2nd, 2008 at 4:14 pm
What kind of an idiot do you think I am, Eric? This is a poll of Minnesota, for crying out loud!. And I merely pointed out that in the only state that anyone is purporting that he will make a difference, he doesn’t. When running against Edwards, he loses big time, as does everyone else. When running against the others, he wins, as do the others. So, in the only state he could help, HE DOESN’T. So don’t give me this stupid name recognition thing! This is his home state for crying out loud!
June 2nd, 2008 at 4:21 pm
“Whoever the VP nominee is will also have that come Nov”
Will they, though?
There are only two months between the GOP convention and the election. That isn’t much time for a VP to develop a strong following - something that any McCain Veep will need.
June 2nd, 2008 at 4:25 pm
Kavon,
Oh i’m sorry i thought that you just switched, but yea i agree with your choices for VP would all be good, i just think that Tim Pawlenty would be the best pick for McCain.
McCain/ Pawlenty 08
June 2nd, 2008 at 4:27 pm
IR-MN #15,
Lyndon Carlson is my State Rep, Ann Rest is my State Senator, and Keith Ellison is my Congressman. I will put up those three liberals with ANYONE in any region of the Twin Cities.
June 2nd, 2008 at 4:32 pm
Iguy
Of course he helps, McCain T-Paw beats McCain (anyone else) in every head to head. Are we looking at the same chart?
June 2nd, 2008 at 4:43 pm
Boy, the biggest constant in these VP polls is that Edwards is worth about 10 points. I have a real hard time believing that he would have that affect in November. He was actually a fairly weak VP candidate in ‘04. I remember he got his head handed to him by Cheney in the sole VP debate (probably the single most important thing the VPs do).
June 2nd, 2008 at 4:45 pm
Come to think of it, if 10-15% of the GENERAL electorate comes flocking for Edwards in the VP spot, why do he do so damn badly in the primaries? Did he even get 20% in his “homestate” of SC?
June 2nd, 2008 at 4:55 pm
I raise you D. Scott Dibble and Speaker Kelliher. I believe I win.
Eric, if Waconia is going blue, then there really isn’t any hope, is there! BTW, there are quite a few jack for senate signs. However, I see them in cars believe it or not.
June 2nd, 2008 at 5:01 pm
Weeeeellll….. I should hope that a sitting Governor would help flip his own state!
But the interesting thing is that Huckabee keeps his net advantage (minus home state advantage) over the rest of the candidates. (Yes, yes… “about even”, “only a point or two”, etc. …but consistently over Romney and the rest.)
June 2nd, 2008 at 5:11 pm
Eric, I’m beginning to wonder if we are. The point is that you either win, or you lose. The amount you win by, or lose by is irrelevant. With Edwards with Obama, we lose, no matter who we have as VP, therefore Pawlenty doesn’t help. With any other VP for Obama, everybody beats him, so again, Tim Pawlenty doesn’t help! you could argue that he wins by a little more, or that he loses by a little less if you want, but the net effect is that Pawlenty does nothing to change even his home state.
June 2nd, 2008 at 5:14 pm
CBL, because they ‘conveniently’ have avoided showing the western states impact. Let’s see those before jumping to a conclusion. I can tell you in advance what the outcome will be. Mitt will be a whole lot stronger out there, not 1 or 2% as you elude to.
June 2nd, 2008 at 5:48 pm
http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/06/02/washington-state-obama-sweeps-regardless-of-vp-pick/
It looks like the conspiracy by Survey USA against Romney is over!!!
Not the blowout you were expecting??? I expect you to eat your hat, Illguy.
June 2nd, 2008 at 5:48 pm
When name recognition is controlled for (i.e., in the Edwards matchups), Pawlenty helps the ticket more than Romney, Huck, or Lieb. This is basically what Matthew Miller has been arguing (and which I have occasionally suggested), inasmuch as Pawlenty’s heterodoxies are just enough to make him more appealing to swing voters than a generic Republican (Mitt), but he’s also sufficiently conservative to avoid any base problems, whether on fiscal issues (Huck) or social issues (Joe). I also think that Huck and Joe are probably getting hit on both ends, as swing voters, especially in places like Krazy Liberal Minnesota (sorry guys), are probably turned off by Lieberman’s support for the war and Huck’s general level of religiosity.
That said, I think that Kavon’s veep list…
T-Paw, Powell, Rudy, Joementum, Sanford, Romney, Palin, and Ridge.
…looks about right, with only a couple of exceptions. I would add Condi, as I don’t think she’s been any more damaged by Bush ties than Ridge or Powell. And I would replace Romney with Meg Whitman. Meg would bring to the ticket the same economic turnaround creds as Romney, but would do so without dragging the ticket down as a generic Republican, and as a middle aged woman to boot. The only reason to pick Romney over Whitman is the notion that he helps in MI, which is suspect given the EPIC-MRA poll that suggests he doesn’t, which has a good track record in Michigan politics.
June 2nd, 2008 at 6:05 pm
Illinois-
These aren’t final results. You know that, right? These are just trends, and contain margin of error. So margin of victory in these polls certainly matters. For the record, I’d prefer that T-paw stays here, but let’s just drop the preposterous Mitt talk.
IR-I’m sure Waconia is still safe, but here in Chanhassen it is becoming Obama country. For the majority of you who aren’t from here-trust me that this is bad news for MN’s prospects.
June 2nd, 2008 at 6:37 pm
“Meg would bring to the ticket the same economic turnaround creds as Romney, but would do so without dragging the ticket down as a generic Republican”
…any damage Romney does by being a “generic Republican”, he compensates for by attracting strong Conservative support.
Would Meg do that? I don’t know. A remarkably unknown person, who lacks the same kind of base that Romney has?
—
Face it, if McCain wants to win, he has to give the base a reason to support him, not just oppose Obama, and since he is unlikely to change his positions on gay marraige, immigration, etc., that reason is going to have to come in the form of a VP pick.
—-
And for all the Mitt-bashing, do we have any polling that shows that Romney damages the ticket in a major way?
June 2nd, 2008 at 10:15 pm
You guys realise it could be 3 months until we find out who the VP noms are going to be!
I guarantee there will be 10 more flavours of the week by then.
June 2nd, 2008 at 10:41 pm
One could argue that name recognition is the sole important factor, and therefore this is the first poll where T-Paw has good name recognition and he does really well.
Therefore if he has good name recognition everywhere (after being picked as VP) he’ll help McCain everywhere by as much as he does here. QED
Gotta love crazy logic!