The Candidates
Just in case anyone was still wondering…
According to CNN, Barack Obama currently leads Hillary Clinton in total delegates 2,072-1,916.
Because of the Democrats’ screwed up system of splitting delegates, after tomorrow’s final two primaries Obama and Hillary will both pick up 13-18 more delegates pretty much regardless of the outcomes. (The most likely split is 9-7 in MT and 9-6 in SD.)
That will put Obama somewhere between 2,085 and 2,090 at the end of the primary season — still short of the 2,118 now needed to clinch the nomination (thanks again to the RBC’s insane and logic-less ruling over the weekend).
So after tomorrow, Obama will be searching for just 28-33 more superdelegates to support him. (There are, according to CNN, 202 uncommitted superdelegates remaining.) If and when he finds them, he officially becomes the presumptive Democratic nominee.
June 2nd, 2008 at 4:27 pm
How can a superdelegate be undecided? “Steal” the nomination from Obama, and kiss goodbye the most loyal voting block in America.
June 2nd, 2008 at 4:36 pm
If Hillary doesn’t convince enough super delegates to switch from Obama to her, what does everyone think she will do?
1) fight it out in the credentials committee
2) floor fight at the convention
3) say screw’em and run as a 3rd party candidate
Either way I don’t see her just ending tomorrow evening.
June 2nd, 2008 at 4:40 pm
I read on another blog that it is too late to register for a 3rd party run but I haven’t verified that. I think she is just suspending her campaign and that’s it.
June 2nd, 2008 at 4:44 pm
I did some more research on ARG.
If you just go by their polls from PA onwards, they’ve been pretty accurate.
They’ve had both the winner and loser within an avg of 3 pts of the final total. So if they say the winner will get 55, the winner ended up within the 52-58 range.
Examples:
They had Hillary winning KY with 65, she ended up with 65.5. They had her winning WV with 66 she ended up with 67. They had Obama in OR with 50, he ended up with 59. They had him in NC with 50 he ended up with 56. They had her in PA with 56 she ended up with 55.
Even their worst poll in OR was only 9 pts off the total. The avg was 3. Same for the loser. They had Obama with 29 in Ky, he got 30. They had him at 23 in WV he got 26. They had Clinton at 45 in OR she got 41. They had her at 42 in NC she got 42. They had Obama at 40 in PA he got 45.
As for the winning margin, they’ve been within an avg of 7.
So, it’s certainly possible that Clinton can win in SD.
Here’s what’s great. SD’s polls close an hour before Montana’s. 9 in the East vs 10 in the east. If Clinton wins, her victory will be reported before Obama’s. That would throw quite the wrench in his plans to declare victory and the networks plans to celebrate it.
Imagine around 9:30 ET the networks call a stunning, unexpected upset for HRC in the Badlands. She gives some huge victory speech soon after in NY.
Now they’re all waiting around till 10:30 or so to call MT for Obama. That’ll be a long wait.
And by the time they do most people in the east will be in bed and not paying attention. Kind of late to give some big acceptance/victory speech.
And he’ll still need 20+ Supers.
I guarantee if Clinton wins SD she announces she’s going to the convention a la Reagan in 76.
June 2nd, 2008 at 4:48 pm
So I wonder how the negotiations are going right now.
If you were Hillary (shudder), what would you ask for?
I head on the news last night that Obama might put her in charge of health care in his adminstration. Yeah, because that worked SO well for Bill 15 years ago! Maybe she could go down in his for single handedly sparking TWO Republican Revolutions.
June 2nd, 2008 at 4:49 pm
The Superdelegates do not cast a single vote until the convention and can change their preference at any time up until the actual vote. Barack Obama will officially become the Dem nominee when he receives 2,118 votes in Denver.
John McCain is the presumptive Republican nominee because he has over the amount of delegates needed to capture the GOP nomination that are pledged to vote for him on first ballot.
June 2nd, 2008 at 4:52 pm
Correction, should say “go down in *history*”
June 2nd, 2008 at 4:53 pm
Why would Hillary run as a VP when she could let Obama lose and then she can take a run for the White House in 2012? Especially when McCain is a potential 1 termer. If and when Obama loses in 08 then he will probably be done as a Presdiential candidate for 2012 and thereafter.
June 2nd, 2008 at 4:54 pm
Kavon,
Meaning Hillary has time to twist arms (convincing the Democratic elite to throw the black guy under the bus). More likely she will come to a negotiated settlement with Obama, I think, before the convention. But a rowdy convention is her nuclear option, but would probably turn her into a Party outsider(!) for ‘12.
June 2nd, 2008 at 4:57 pm
Tom,
“If and when Obama loses in 08 then he will probably be done as a Presdiential candidate for 2012 and thereafter.”
The Democrats have a long history of leaving their losers for dead (meaning they don’t renominate them). The last time a Democratic loser got another chance was Adlai Stevenson in ‘56. But he was a sacrificial no-hoper that year anyway.
June 2nd, 2008 at 5:00 pm
“The Superdelegates do not cast a single vote until the convention and can change their preference at any time upo until the actual vote.”
As a practical matter, this isn’t really the case. While there is no official sanction for a superdelegate switching their support to another candidate, there is an unofficial consequence: to the candidate said superdelegate abandons, he or she will be considered the lowest form of traitor, politically speaking. And if the candidate said superdelegate abandoned manages to win anyway, that superdelegate will be pretty much frozen out of the party permanently (for an example of this in action, read up on what happened to Bill Jones when he switched his endorsement from Bush to McCain on the eve of the California Primary).
Bottom line, Obama’s supers are stuck with him unless they think he isn’t going to win the nomination. And if Obama has 100 delegates more than needed to wrap up the nomination (which he will have if he gets 1/2 of the remaining supers), there will be no way for any individual super to sway the nomination. So they won’t.
June 2nd, 2008 at 5:02 pm
I believe this is exactly what the Clinton’s are going for. I do not believe any of this talk regarding Senate Majority Leader or anything else like that.
June 2nd, 2008 at 5:07 pm
MWS,
True, but it would’ve likely been Gore’s again if he had chosen to run in either 04 or 08. Gore was always much more dangerous.
June 2nd, 2008 at 5:08 pm
sweet jesus
I dunno how the evangelicals will feel about this one.
http://bp2.blogger.com/_uExTzMIDd1Y/R2O5nKq9_tI/AAAAAAAAATE/At2bb_K_3ao/s1600-h/Sarah-Palin-Vogue.jpg
June 2nd, 2008 at 5:12 pm
“I guarantee if Clinton wins SD she announces she’s going to the convention a la Reagan in 76″.
I personally guarantee she won’t. She has no chance - but has had none since mid Feb!
June 2nd, 2008 at 5:14 pm
Tom @ 8.
Like it or not the market has Obama 67% chance to win to McCain’s 33% chance.
With millions of real money bet.
And she won’t challenge him after all the Clinton’s said about Kennedy’s challenge.
June 2nd, 2008 at 5:16 pm
Leave it to the Dems … if they can nominate an unelectable candidate … they’ll search high and low to do so.
So here we go again!
June 2nd, 2008 at 5:16 pm
It’s probably a good thing coz she doesn’t want jealous woman against her but Palin has certainly changed a lot since those pics! She isn’t that hot.
June 2nd, 2008 at 5:17 pm
Tommy, it reminds me of when Rachel Ray had a slutty photo shoot.
Why do some professional women insist on being treated as objects instead of persons?
I think women would prefer to be respected as professionals not thought of as objects. It sure makes me take Palin less seriously.
June 2nd, 2008 at 5:24 pm
#1
If Hill wins in spite of the most loyal voting block in America, then they will lose any clout they had to begin with. They can’t risk not voting for her…
June 2nd, 2008 at 5:25 pm
That picture is pretty revealing to say the least.
June 2nd, 2008 at 5:25 pm
uh, in case anyone couldn’t tell, i think that vogue picture was obviously doctored. it’s clearly a parody of some sort.
June 2nd, 2008 at 5:29 pm
Breaking: Undeclared Senate Dems to endorse Obama. See CNN.com.
June 2nd, 2008 at 5:30 pm
Heath #16,
Intrade also had Mitt Romney winning Iowa and New Hampshire by similar margins at the exact same time this year.
I love Intrade, but it’s real predictive value comes very close to the actual event.
June 2nd, 2008 at 5:30 pm
Good grief, CNN just bumped it down to item #5.
June 2nd, 2008 at 5:58 pm
jim,
yeA, it’s a fake. I thought it was funny.
June 2nd, 2008 at 6:21 pm
I’m glad it’s a fake. I don’t want our governors (male or female) parading on flesh mags.
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:27 am
[...] without Hillary’s withdrawal/endorsement/suspension of her campaign. If you read R4′08 yesterday, you know that Obama needs only 28-33 more superdelegates to effectively clinch the nomination. And [...]