The Candidates
Lowry gets it:
Two friends have framed the race similarly to me. One says that McCain’s great advantage is that he’s basically acceptable to the public as president. The question is whether or not Obama is. If he is, he’s the next president because it’s such a Democratic year. Another friend makes the same point a little differently. He says that people want McCain to be president—except they don’t want a Republican to be president. They do want a Democrat to be president—except maybe not this particular one. The campaign will be run on the horns of that dilemma.
And so tonight, the party that can’t lose the race for 2008 will nominate the candidate who can’t win, while the candidate who can win has already been nominated by the party that must lose.
Game on.
June 3rd, 2008 at 7:13 pm
Just to let everyone know, Foxnews will be showing McCain’s speech that they say should begin around 830, so thats good.
Change we can believe in……..John McCain!!!
June 3rd, 2008 at 7:14 pm
Looking ahead to the general election versus Obama, I’ve got these states as Obama states:
ME, VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ, DE, MD, DC, IL, MN, WA, OR, CA, HI
McCain states:
VA, WV, OH, IN, KY, TN, NC, SC, GA, FL, AL, MS, LA, AR, MO, TX, OK, KS, NE, SD, ND, MT, WY, ID, AK, NV, UT, AZ
This is a generous allocation for McCain. This gives Obama 200 electoral votes and McCain 265. I believe that IF McCain is going to win, he has to carry those states. Bush carried all of them in 2000 and 2004. Gore and Kerry both carried the Obama states as well. I’m not saying that Obama or McCain will definitely win these states, just that they are must win states if they expect to win the election. You can’t win without them.
The remaining states where I believe the election will truly be decided are:
New Mexico
Colorado
Wisconsin
Iowa
Michigan
Pennsylvania
New Hampshire
If McCain gets all of the previous states to reach 265 EVs, he’ll need 5 more to win. New Hampshire is too small having only 4 EV. McCain must win one of the following: NM, CO, WI, IA, MI, or PA. He’s currently trailing in the polls in all of them except Michigan.
June 3rd, 2008 at 7:16 pm
Ohio is not going to be easily won by any candidate.
June 3rd, 2008 at 7:22 pm
Josiah,
I don’t think Ohio will be easily won either, but if Obama wins Ohio, say hello to President Obama.
June 3rd, 2008 at 7:25 pm
Hello.
June 3rd, 2008 at 7:32 pm
This is so suspenseful, you guys.
June 3rd, 2008 at 7:34 pm
Who do YOU think the Democratic nominee will be, Alex? :O
June 3rd, 2008 at 7:35 pm
Looking at what FoxNews has to say about the exits, Hillary looks on pace to win SD by 10 points or so. Obama looks like he’ll win Montana, but I can’t get a good bead on the margin.
June 3rd, 2008 at 7:37 pm
Bobby Jindal is now speaking on Fox News everyone…..he’s doing a great job!
June 3rd, 2008 at 7:38 pm
John McCain is now speaking on Fox News!!!!!
June 3rd, 2008 at 7:38 pm
Bobby Jindal just called McCain a great leader and a great reformer!
Fantastic!
June 3rd, 2008 at 7:39 pm
Jindal did a fantastic job!!
June 3rd, 2008 at 7:42 pm
Good, McCain is running as a smart-government conservative.
June 3rd, 2008 at 7:43 pm
Like I said this afternoon, Jindal is my personal pick.
June 3rd, 2008 at 7:45 pm
[...] race for President in a nutshell: One says that McCain’s great advantage is that he’s basically acceptable to the public as [...]
June 3rd, 2008 at 7:46 pm
DaveG, I think that’s an oxymoron.
June 3rd, 2008 at 7:46 pm
Great, great speech so far.
June 3rd, 2008 at 7:48 pm
I am her servant first, last and always!! Great line JMac!
June 3rd, 2008 at 7:51 pm
#18
Agreed. That is a great line. The best leaders are true “servants of the people.”
June 3rd, 2008 at 7:51 pm
And the Iraqis lived happily ever after.
June 3rd, 2008 at 7:51 pm
Oh, I LOVE that! He’ll meet with Kim Jung Il but not Petraeus!!!
June 3rd, 2008 at 7:54 pm
John McCain should more or less try to stop smiling when he’s speaking about national security.
June 3rd, 2008 at 7:54 pm
Lowry’s blog says it–spot on actually. This competition will hinge on Obama making himself acceptable and on McCain making a convincing case that he is not a GWB type Republican. As of now I give the advantage to McCain.
June 3rd, 2008 at 7:54 pm
GO JOHN MCCAIN!!! GO JOHN MCCAIN!!!!
June 3rd, 2008 at 7:55 pm
I love the way he’s distinguishing himself from Bush and, at times, from “the Republicans.”
June 3rd, 2008 at 7:56 pm
Someone on Team McCain needs to stop using green backgrounds and start getting him better makeup for the camera.
June 3rd, 2008 at 7:58 pm
Yeah, I don’t like this background, either.
June 3rd, 2008 at 7:58 pm
This election is not about looks but about who would make the better president and keep America safer my friend.
June 3rd, 2008 at 7:58 pm
He needs to stop that goofy grin, too. Seriously.
June 3rd, 2008 at 7:59 pm
I think the background looks great!
June 3rd, 2008 at 7:59 pm
Empty promises to bring back the lost jobs — a jab at Romney! ;D
June 3rd, 2008 at 7:59 pm
He’s grinning b/c he thinks its silly that Obama has these crazy ideas, and alot of other people are grinning to.
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:00 pm
HERE COME THE SOUTH DAKOTA RESULTS!
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:00 pm
Metro,
I suspect that’s a further attempt to symbolically disconnect himself from Republicans. Michael Steele did something similar in Maryland, using blue backgrounds instead of red. Green perhaps symbolizes a certain independence and his focus on the environment.
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:00 pm
Honestly, I watched McCain’s speech for the first ten minutes and just turned it off. Listening to all his talking points, I just felt in my gut he is going to lose. I am going to watch a movie instead.
P.S. First time I ever heard Jindal. At the risk of being shot, I honestly thought he was an awful speaker.
This one goes to the democrats, guys. Let’s hope we come back a little stronger and wiser next time.
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:01 pm
CNN just interrupted McCain to project Obama the nominee.
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:01 pm
Thanks for diagnosis, O Wise One.
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:02 pm
voter,
Go back to the Obama message board!
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:03 pm
Matthew, not a bad idea. Go for forest green, then. Not this green, which makes McCain look green, pale, and old.
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:03 pm
Miller,
Exactly.
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:03 pm
McCain’s kickin’ ass.
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:03 pm
McCain: Barack Obama MOST LIBERAL SENATOR IN THE U.S SENATE!!!
Enough said!
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:04 pm
Yeah, “voter” is a an Obama shill.
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:04 pm
Two elections in a row, Democrats have nominated their most liberal member of the Senate.
What is the matter with these people? Always trying to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:05 pm
“We belong to different parties, but not different countries”….Great Line!
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:05 pm
Maybe he’s PabloZed. I’m really glad that a$$hole is gone.
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:06 pm
South Dakota is officially Clinton’s!
Quite the old upset. Highlights the disparities between the caucuses and the primaries.
The nomination, really, is rightfully hers, if it’s about the ‘will of the people’ — love those Democrats!
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:07 pm
Alex,
I think on some level the Dems have just gotten too cocky. They are so confident that just because Bush screwed things up they would win an “open seat” contest by default even with the most leftwing candidate they could find. Obviously a good solid half of the party isn’t on board with that sentiment - and therein lies our opportunity.
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:07 pm
I think McCain’s speech was excellent. Fox didn’t leave his speech at any time to declare Obama anything.
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:09 pm
I have to tell you, I’m not a big fan of this speech. John McCain just doesn’t give good speeches when he’s composed, and I frankly think his message could use some serious refining. I can’t understand why Mac didn’t spend the last 3 months composing a message, and practicing certain lines in front of the mirror. Voter may be a troll, but I share some of his worries.
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:09 pm
80’s HAIR METAL CAMPAIGN MUSIC!
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:09 pm
Yea kudos to Fox News for not leaving John McCain like the other stations did.
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:09 pm
And why did CNN need to do that? Really? Was there any doubt anymore that Obama is now the presumptive Dem nominee?
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:10 pm
“He fancies himself a major reformer” - Chris Wallace
Yes! I’m a prophet, man.
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:10 pm
McCain is going to tell it like it is. Soft spoken and calm. He has the record to back it up too. Quite the contrast from all the skeletons and flowery speeches from Obama. I sense a winner.
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:10 pm
Matt Miller: Well, as know that McCain isn’t that great of an orator. But his content was good.
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:12 pm
Lucky for us McCain debates better than Obama. Just think of how many screwups. “Yes I would meet without preconditions…”, “I support Drivers’ licenses for illegals”, and that whopper of a performance in the ABC debate where Clinton just had to stand there to win.
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:14 pm
Yea people are so used to Obama’s speeches but this is not Hollywood and content matter’s more than speeches. Like Karl Rove is saying right now McCain is more at home at Town Hall Meetings and at debates whereas Obama just gives speeches.
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:17 pm
Patrick,
The content was “fine” to “good”. Not wonderful. The delivery was, as usual, forced. I agree with Tommy’s earlier post; it’s a mistake to play on Obama’s terrain. Hillary tried that early in the campaign and was routinely shellacked. Barack has utterly collapsed since she’s moved to her own message. McCain should ignore Barack’s change rhetoric, almost entirely. He should only mention it passingly, i.e “Barack hasn’t actually accomplished anything and has never bucked his party”. It’s a disastrous idea to address to even dignify the change narrative, with anything but passing scorn.
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:19 pm
Adam,
McCain is a horrendous debater. Obama’s terribly mediocre, but he tops Mac. I’m gearing myself up for another cringe-worthy series of debates.
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:22 pm
Matt,
I don’t think McCain is great in a debate setting - but Mickey Mouse could have shellacked Obama in the last ABC debate - the one that the liberals whined was a “lynching”.
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:23 pm
#59
What you say makes sense here. McCain certainly isn’t a speech-maker extraordinaire. I also would like him to stay with his own message, whatever it turns out to be. He needs to stay away from Obama’s message.
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:25 pm
Adam & Matthew,
A sampling of McCain’s debate mastery: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HcdLO3jKkPo
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:29 pm
Josiah,
Ron Paul isn’t going to win - and you and your brethren are only going to damage GOP chances this year.
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:30 pm
McCain’s in trouble. This is the first time since Obama’s stumbles that I’ve had this feeling. McCain needs to stay above the fray. He lowers himself when he addresses Obama’s message, by attempting to refute it. He needs to maintain almost military level discipline on projecting a serious image. No awkward smiles. No playground derision. He needs to simply dismiss Obama. He needs to make it clear that Obama’s not a figure of consequence, and that he can’t be taken seriously.
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:31 pm
Matt, I think you may be right. At a minimum, he needs to stop repeating the “That’s not change you can believe in” line.
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:32 pm
Ha, Bill Kristol just said the same thing right after I typed that.
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:32 pm
Adam,
Where did I say I thought Ron Paul was going to win? And the neo-conservative wing of the GOP already damaged its our chances by nominating an economics-ignorant RINO.
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:34 pm
What’s she gonna do…what’s she gonna do…
I’m still in disbelief that the Democrats denied Hillary Clinton the nomination.
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:35 pm
Neo-conservative wing of the GOP nominated McCain? Not sure what you think is “Neo-conservative”, but it was mainly moderates who went for McCain, Josiah, not conservatives. The conservatives were split amongst Huckabee, Romney, and Thompson.
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:35 pm
That’s a concession speech if I’ve heard one.
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:36 pm
#69: She’s going to talk about what it means to be a first lady, and then tell us she has a little video of Michelle Obama she’d like us to watch…
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:37 pm
DaveG: Are you reading Victor Davis Hanson? He put it similarly yesterday — that the Democrats have nominated the only Democrat who could lose this year, while the Republicans have nominated the only Republican who can win.
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:39 pm
Did Hillary see the rumor Tape before this speech or something?
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:41 pm
This is a Celebrate Our Campaign speech.
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:42 pm
I like that yellow and red striped shirt. It looks like it came straight from the Huckabee family portrait.
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:45 pm
76 — Straight from the portrait, except for the sexual orientation of the guy wearing it. (Oh snap.)
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:46 pm
Alex,
Did one of your friends “convert” him? Oh no!
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:48 pm
Yes, yes! Denver! Denver! Denver!
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:48 pm
They were chanting “Denver, Denver, Denver”… and she said “no.”
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:49 pm
http://www.abqjournal.com/
For the NM Primary returns, Pierce up early but nothing as even start rolling in from Distract 1 yet.
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:52 pm
Check that, the Abstenne from D 1 just got release and Wilson is up 61-39
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:52 pm
Newsflash!: Obama’s speech includes three references to George Bush, a reference to the 100 years quote, and he tries to compare his ideas on economics to Bill Clinton’s presidency…
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:54 pm
The guy in the yellow and red striped shirt behind Hillary is “hillarious!” Perfect example of the demoncratic party…
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:56 pm
20% of D2 in and Wilson up 52-48, only abtsenne from D1, D3 has very little in so far. Wilson looks like she is going to do it again and win a race she is suppose to lose.
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:58 pm
Alex,
That was my thought exactly. I had to struggle to refrain from mentioning that.
June 3rd, 2008 at 9:02 pm
Russert and Brokaw both say that Hillary stopped short of dropping out tonight or endorsing Obama because she wants leverage to force herself onto the ticket.
June 3rd, 2008 at 9:03 pm
Hume and Fox folks think so too.
June 3rd, 2008 at 9:10 pm
He’s not going to put her on the ticket unless he has to. The kooks will have a fit, and Obama doesn’t like the Clintons. Even if he does capitulate I’m not sure that it necessarily dooms McCain (although it’s certainly not going to help him).
If I were a 60-year old woman that voted Democrat for years, waiting for the ultimate glass ceiling to be broken and saw Obama top the ticket because of some fad where it’s fashionable to install an inexperienced minority who didn’t pay his dues, had everything handed to him and conducted himself in a borderline sexist manner as the head honcho - seeing Hillary in the Veep slot might be a constant reminder about every doubt I ever had about the party.
June 3rd, 2008 at 9:12 pm
here comes hope
June 3rd, 2008 at 9:12 pm
This is going to be the most exciting Presidential campaign in history. This is going to get so nasty!
June 3rd, 2008 at 9:15 pm
Hillary on the ticket would be a disaster for Obama. McCain would win almost all Republicans and could win independents as well along with around 20-25% of Democrats.
June 3rd, 2008 at 9:17 pm
The Clintons want to force her on the ticket, so that once Democrats accept the idea it’s a unity ticket, and then more negatives come out about Obama, they can appeal to the supers to simply switch the order of the ticket. Sounds like a much smaller switch that way.
June 3rd, 2008 at 9:17 pm
Paul8148,
Heather Wilson’s got gravitas! I can’t wait for her to debate that empty suit.
June 3rd, 2008 at 9:18 pm
I want one of those red Obama Mama shirts! Actually, I bet the guy in the yellow shirt is now going to have to get one.
June 3rd, 2008 at 9:18 pm
Matthew E. Miller, do not worry my friend.
McCain was almost vapourized on the Oriskany, was shot out of the sky in a fighter jet my a SAM missle, almost drowned in the lake he ejected over, was beaten and stabbed by an angry mob, then was tortured for 6 years, and at 71 he still only needs 4-5 hours of sleep per night. He is the toughest SOB the GOP ever nominated.
Have faith buddy! Obama is running against a man who had a movie made about his heroism (and I am sure Fox will show the movie on election eve).
June 3rd, 2008 at 9:20 pm
I am an hour behind on CNN and am taping Fox News on my DVR and Pedro starting for the Mets. I have HAD IT with Jeffrey Toobin on CNN. Pundits were rightfully celebrating this historic nomination and he takes a cheap shot calling Mac’s speech terrible. Yeah the backdrop wasn’t good and he’s not good with the teleprompter the way most of these con artists are, but he brought up stuff we all here know already and 55% of this country is concerned about to the point they will not vote or even vote against Obama.
Like the top of the thread says, “They just don’t get it.”
June 3rd, 2008 at 9:24 pm
Obama was starting to bash McCain and then ABC NEWS cut him off! I love it!
June 3rd, 2008 at 9:25 pm
Barack’s turning it up a notch.
June 3rd, 2008 at 9:29 pm
In really important news, Arizona State just won the softball College World Series, crushing Texas A&M, 11-0. Go Sun Devils!
June 3rd, 2008 at 9:35 pm
Not using religion as a wedge… that makes me want to vote for this guy.
June 3rd, 2008 at 9:36 pm
I was born in Mesa, AZ and I have several baseballs signed by ASU college baseball teams in the 70’s. Way to go Sun Devils! I’ve still got a soft spot in my heart for them.
June 3rd, 2008 at 9:37 pm
“Not using religion as a wedge… that makes me want to vote for this guy… Metro”
I knew he was a plant from the Dark Side!
June 3rd, 2008 at 9:38 pm
51-49 Pence, barely anything in from D1.
June 3rd, 2008 at 9:39 pm
Wow. When he goes like this, I think he’s unstoppable in November.
It just erases whatever you’ve heard about Wright, Ayers, etc. For most people.
June 3rd, 2008 at 9:39 pm
Clinton is clearly the stronger general election candidate. I’m glad they’re picking Obama. Good luck! People are going to learn all about Obama over the next few months. I’ve already started to hear “I’m sick of this Obama guy.” Obama is going to grow old and look like a typical politician by the time November rolls around. I predict that McCain wins with over 300 electoral votes, especially if the situation in Iraq is good enough that troops are on the way back home soon.
June 3rd, 2008 at 9:40 pm
Good God. McCain’s in huge trouble, if tonight is any preview.
June 3rd, 2008 at 9:41 pm
EricB, did you see the end of the Obama speech?
June 3rd, 2008 at 9:41 pm
Downright Reaganesque.
June 3rd, 2008 at 9:45 pm
“Obama is going to grow old and look like a typical politician by the time November rolls around.”
My friend, did you see McCain tonight? He is already there. I thought the substance of McCain’s speech was overwhelmed by his poor delivery and frankly the fact that he looked god-awful. And when he smiled I literally thought I saw his teeth start to come out. As to the substance, you can’t claim to know the economy and talk about “inflations.” I assure you “Inflations” will be McCain’s “internets.” Also, when you are making signs that look and sound like your opponent, you have already lost control of the message.
Please don’t go accusing me of bashing because what I am saying is what is already being said over at NROnline and elsewhere. It was terrible.
June 3rd, 2008 at 9:46 pm
I didn’t see the speech, but I’m not scared of this guy. Emotion fades. Obama is going to have to win states like Ohio and Florida to win this election.
June 3rd, 2008 at 9:48 pm
GWB cannot even put a sentance together and he won. Not as important.
June 3rd, 2008 at 9:49 pm
I called it this afternoon. It’s not smart to go after Obama on his own turf. He just tore McCain a new one, and did so without insulting McCain. McCain’s speech seems petty and low after that send off.
June 3rd, 2008 at 9:49 pm
Please people, don’t do Andrew Sullivan’s job. McCain won’t win on his speaking style: that’s a given. We’ll win in Nov. b/c most Americans won’t elected a fraud. Clinton wouldn’t have won in 92 except for Perot. And Clinton was much smoother than HW. Don’t get lured in by the shiny sparkles.
June 3rd, 2008 at 9:50 pm
It’s mainly intellectuals that value a good speech. Kerry won every debate in 2004 and still lost.
June 3rd, 2008 at 9:55 pm
I mean, we’ve already seen just how easily Obama was able to overwhelm the field with his speeches and money in his blowout wins in Ohio, Texas, Pennsylvania, California, Kentucky, West Virginia, South Dakota, etc…
oh…right
June 3rd, 2008 at 9:56 pm
I’m a bit surprised at the pessimism engendered by a good speech. Giving good speeches is what Obama’s all about — is anybody surprised that he’d have a good one ready for tonight?
The problem for Obama and his crowd, is that there’s nothing behind the words.
June 3rd, 2008 at 9:58 pm
Now, more than ever, we Republicans need to unite. We can bitch and moan about McCain till we are blue in the face, but as Republicans, we have to stop this man from getting in the White House. The world is too dangerous to let a far-left loon like Obama to be Commander-in-Chief.
June 3rd, 2008 at 9:59 pm
McCain got pretty petty and low during the primaries so I don’t really expect anything any different from him in the general. Remember - he still believes that this country owes him the presidency. He needs to not be cocky or arrogant during the debates (like he did in the primary debates). He needs to run like the underdog (i still think he is the underdog). We saw what HRC accomplished when she stopped running as the favorite; McCain needs to do the same.
Just my 2 cents worth and my guy lost in the primary so take it for what it’s worth.
June 3rd, 2008 at 10:00 pm
Right now I’m glad that I’ve relocated from Texas to Michigan. A vote in Michigan is going to have more impact than a vote in Texas.
June 3rd, 2008 at 10:02 pm
The funny thing is that because of the 24/7 news cycle over time these speech have less affect. At the same time, McCain format of the Town Halls are smaller by nature.
June 3rd, 2008 at 10:06 pm
Also, I think it’s clear after tonight that Clinton is going to the convention.
Obama doesn’t have anything until the supers vote and they don’t vote until the convention.
her supporters will tell her to stay in and she will.
June 3rd, 2008 at 10:06 pm
Clinton says she’s open to be Obama’s VP.
June 3rd, 2008 at 10:07 pm
What makes you think she’s going to the convention? I hope she does, but why is it clear?
June 3rd, 2008 at 10:09 pm
I too was impressed by the contrast between the various candidates’ speeches.
Hillary seemed petty. McCain seemed old. Obama seemed fresh and new.
Substantively, McCain’s speech was good. But the delivery was horrid. Obama’s delivery was excellent, and substantively, his speech was okay, but only because he went back to speaking in generalities that we can all agree with. I mean, again, no one actually opposes every child having health care. It’s how we get there that counts.
The real test will come during the debates. When Obama is forced to reveal his far left policies, and when those policies are compared to McCain’s moderate, mainstream policies, will Americans really go with the guy they disagree with just because he can give a good speech?
Incidentally, the roundup over at NRO demonstrates just how useless the GOP will be to McCain this fall. Mark Levin and K-Lo seem to be incensed that McCain did something other than reach out to the base with his speech. They’re almost offended that he’s going for Hillary Democrats. Meanwhile, another commentator is attacking Obama’s comment that religion shouldn’t be used as a wedge issue. Excuse me? So are you saying that religion SHOULD be used as a wedge issue? This is the problem with the Republican base. It’s running around like a chicken with its head cut off, not really aware of what’s a winner politically anymore, and not really all that concerned.
June 3rd, 2008 at 10:10 pm
I think too many people on here are giving the American electorate too much credit. I think after 8 years of W and Cheney’s secret meetings and lack of disclosure to the American public that all Obama needs to do is make a number of great speeches and play to people’s desire for “change” and their near complete disgust with the last 8 years. Presidential elections have a whole lot more to do with “relating to the voter” than they do with policy for “most” Americans.
June 3rd, 2008 at 10:10 pm
I am sorry, did Obama say he would take profits away from oil companies? Holy smokes! That is communism!
June 3rd, 2008 at 10:12 pm
DaveG,
It’s what I’ve been worried about since he won. People can’t assume that everything is going to work out.
I predicted that Obama would win when nobody gave this guy a shot, and for people to act like it’s going to be easy is naive.
June 3rd, 2008 at 10:13 pm
#127:
You are right Batman he did say that. He also talked about “making companies pay for their pollution”. I think he should pay for all the bull that has been coming out of his mouth the last 16 months.
June 3rd, 2008 at 10:13 pm
RayinNH just hit the nail on the head.
June 3rd, 2008 at 10:14 pm
in #126.
June 3rd, 2008 at 10:15 pm
Tommy - coming from you I take that as a phenomenal compliment.
June 3rd, 2008 at 10:19 pm
You’re welcome. You always make great points.
People who follow politics this closely tend to forget the fact that we live in the culture of American Idol, Survivor, and Beyonce… shallow stuff. I’m guilty of it myself at times.
June 3rd, 2008 at 10:19 pm
#129, I am looking through my history books, has America ever done that before to private companies?
If Obama keeps saying stuff like that, McCain will not have an issue with his base.
June 3rd, 2008 at 10:22 pm
Everyone just take a breather……..
It is not the speech delivery that is important. For newspapers it is the substance, and for electronic media, it is the clips.
June 3rd, 2008 at 10:22 pm
Kristofer:
The only comparison I can think of is back during WWI when the Wilson Administration put all the nation’s railroads under government control. He “forced” the Railroads (The evil oil companies of their day) to support government policy.
June 3rd, 2008 at 10:24 pm
terrifying Obama speech…..Obama: lebensraum!, Lebensraum!, LEBENSRAUM!
June 3rd, 2008 at 10:24 pm
Breaking News……………..
MSNBC just called the Presidency for Obama!
June 3rd, 2008 at 10:25 pm
Re 124,
I thought it was clear because she asked for her supporters to tell her what to do. Of course they’re going to want her to continue.
The campaign is over. There are no more primaries. No more votes.
Obama’s lead is based entirely on superdelegates whose decision won’t be recorded until the end of August.
She’ll bank her delegates now and go the convention. A lot will happen between now and then. Especially if polls continue to show her far stronger against McCain.
On a side note, tonight is 5 months since Iowa. Just think of everything that has happened since then. There’s exactly 5 moths until the election. A lot more will happen.
But thanks for the Race42008 primary coverage, and all the posters and commenters: the best around
June 3rd, 2008 at 10:26 pm
Jonathan, #136, would it not be ironic that the oil companies will support McCain over this policy.
June 3rd, 2008 at 10:27 pm
Tommy,
I’m glad you brought up American Idol. What happened this year? Simon, Paula, and randy all went gaga over the fresh youngster Archuleta. The media and the tv shows and the blogs and the teen girls who screamed all went nuts. He was the overwhelming favorite.
No one really gave the older uy Cook a chance.
Who won?
June 3rd, 2008 at 10:27 pm
137:
What are you talking about? Lebensraum was the Nazi ideology of invading Slavic country’s, enslaving the population, and then importing a German ruling class. Unless Obama has a secret plan to crush the Bahamas and Jamaica, lebensraum is not the appropriate word. More like “The 5 Year Plan”.
June 3rd, 2008 at 10:28 pm
Thanks again Tommy. I don’t spend my days surrounded by political junkies like myself. I spend time around a lot of people who are sick and tired of Bush and sick and tired of Iraq. Quite a few of them were Paul supporters and will never vote for McCain because they are anti-war. These are the type of voters that a less pro-war Republican probably could have won over but McCain will not.
Ron Paul and Obama have excited and energized a lot of younger voters (a portion of which will be voting in Nov but not all) who are all very anti-war. These voters will either stay home or vote for Obama because he is the anti-war candidate.
I truly do wish that the American electorate was as smart about politics as most everyone on this site is, but that is simply not the case. Americans want an inspirational, fresh, new, young, leader and only 1 of the 2 candidates fits that mold.
I really don’t think that anything else could come out about Obama (I don’t even know if the Michelle Obama ‘whitey’ video would work) that will scare voters away from him. I think many more people will not vote at all then will switch sides just because Obama is the Dem nominee. I do fear that Obama has reached a segment of the electorate that will propel him to victory in November.
June 3rd, 2008 at 10:29 pm
jim,
I dunno. I don’t watch it. It’s shallow.
June 3rd, 2008 at 10:31 pm
140:
Politics makes strange bedfellows. That plus Cary Florina should help scare big business to support McCain.
June 3rd, 2008 at 10:34 pm
Prospect Theory offers a suggestion for how to steal yourself for the chance of losing the election to a leftist fanatic (Obama).
Assume John McCain is going to lose.
Now whenever you hear how he has a 35% chance of winning you’ll feel better. It also leaves you little room to feel worse.
June 3rd, 2008 at 10:34 pm
#145.
Yes, Fiorina is looking a lot more possible tonight. She is good friends with all those Fortune 500 executives (ex. B. Gates). They have a lot of $. Do you think after Clinton’s speech tonight, she is going to blackmail Obama for the VP, or have his campaign cover he debts?
June 3rd, 2008 at 10:35 pm
re 139
Yeah, a lot really has happened since I’ve started coming to this site. I started off undecided for the Republican primaries, then I supported Fred Thompson for months, then I switched to Mike Huckabee and voted for him in the primary, supporting him until he dropped out. Then, I got caught up in extending the Democratic primaries as long as possible and hoping that Obama wins the nomination after a long, bloody battle with the Clintons. I hope she keeps fighting, just because it’ll keep the Democrats divided. The Democratic leaders can pretend they are united all they want, but the voters disagreed, as evidenced over and over again by actual votes. 50% of primary voters voted against Obama. If one-third of those 50% won’t support Obama in November, that’s one-sixth of Democratic primary voters opposing him. Many casual Democrats (those who don’t vote in primaries) also oppose Obama. I’ve talked to some myself here in Michigan.
June 3rd, 2008 at 10:36 pm
The end of Obama’s speech was incredibly creepy and disturbing.
June 3rd, 2008 at 10:38 pm
Tommy,
The older guy Cook who no one thought had a chance in hell spanked the kid by 12 million votes and won easily.
The parallels are kind of scary actually.
June 3rd, 2008 at 10:39 pm
#147:
I thought Clinton gave as good a speech as she is capable of giving. It was Clinton at her best; defiant and never-saying-quit. I think she will force Obama to do several things:
1.) Include her health-care plan in the Democratic Convention Platform
2.) Cover her debts
3.) Give her a prime-time speech at the Convention. Make her the keynot speech
4.) Let her be nominated for President. Let her supporters have a great demonstration for her on the floor.
5.) Give FL and MI the full vote.
June 3rd, 2008 at 10:40 pm
I’m just imagining Carly Fiorina in a vice presidential debate with Jim Webb, running circles around him on economics.
Webb: “We’ve got to make sure every child has health care!”
Fiorina: (lays out 15-point plan to make that happen without destroying the economy)
Webb: (makes sexist comment)
That’s pretty much the format for the entire debate.
June 3rd, 2008 at 10:48 pm
Facts:
J/Mac is a great debater.
If Clinton is the VP nom it’s game over.
June 3rd, 2008 at 10:50 pm
You should read Dick Morris’ article that just came out talking about how adding Clinton to the ticket as VP only hurts Obama.
June 3rd, 2008 at 10:51 pm
It depends what kind of debate. If it’s a debate where the moderators fall over themselves to genuflect to Obama, not so much.
If it’s like the ABC PA debate where Gibson and Stephanopolous destroyed him, McCain could do quite well.
His performance that night was awful.
June 3rd, 2008 at 10:51 pm
I don’t listen to Dick Morris anymore. He is so warped by his hatred of Hillary that his political commentary is directed by it.
June 3rd, 2008 at 10:52 pm
I am pro-Palin, and I have never mentioned this on this site, but I did meet Ms. Fiorina once, she facilitated a marketing session, with a light emphasis on the HP IPod.
By the time everyone left, they wanted to run to BestBuy and purchase it. Fiorina could sell sand to a Saudi (wait we only sell them F-15’s).
June 3rd, 2008 at 10:54 pm
I do not like Romney, but if someone could promise me he could delivery Michigan, I will live with him as the choice.
June 3rd, 2008 at 10:58 pm
He can’t.
June 3rd, 2008 at 10:59 pm
#159, do you have others options? And why…?
June 3rd, 2008 at 11:29 pm
Just out of curiosity, what does everyone think will happen if the US attacks Iranian Revolutionary Guard bases or facilities at some point in the near future? If Israel and/or the United States attack their nuclear facilities?
There’s lots of things that can happen that the GOP still has a big say over and that can impact the election.
June 3rd, 2008 at 11:37 pm
I hope Bush/Israel does attack Iran’s nuclear facilities before November (or in December) if Iran does not come to terms. I do not say that for any electoral reasons at all. In fact, I wish it had happened already.
Attacking the RG would not be a good idea because it would be opening a second front on the Iraq war. And how would Iran respond? By attacking shipping in the Gulf and attacking our troops in Iraq.
Not that its what Jim is suggesting, but any attempt by Pres Bush to use the army as an election device will be rejected by the joint chiefs.
June 3rd, 2008 at 11:44 pm
#38 — very childish to believe that anyone who offers an honest appraisal is an Obama supporter. I detest Obama — I can’t stand listening to his speeches — and I find him incredibly boring.
Actually I am a McCain supporter — if you look at my prior postings you would know that — but while I respect McCain, I just think the democrats have it this year. And the more you guys keep pushing him to the right, the sorrier it gets. So, I like McCain, I like Huckabee as VP — I’m not an Obama supporter — so grow up — I am just expressing my opinion.
June 4th, 2008 at 1:53 am
#163, voter
Let me get this straight…you think Jindal is horrible and Obama is boring? It’s the oration that has gotten him this far. Most likely the majority of Obama supporters are voting on their emotions that comes from listening to his speeches.
You have got to be kidding in your assessment.
June 4th, 2008 at 2:28 am
111/112 I’m afraid I disagree. The speaking ability thing (and especially the correct pronunciations, words, facts, terms) does matter this year. And it matters precisely because of GWB. In voters’ minds, speaking ability has come to represent intelligence and consequently competence. There is great danger in McCain doing or saying anything that hurts his image as an experienced and competent public servant. Esp. against Obama (though Obama would be more dangerous if he had more experience).
128 Right, people absolutely can’t assume everything will work out, as victory usually goes to the person who runs the strongest campaign! The ultimate question with Obama’s speeches is whether people believe them or not. The speeches help, make no mistake - but do people believe he is willing and able to do what he promises? Obama has an experience deficit compared to McCain and his reformer credentials are questionable, but his campaign has helped somewhat in both these areas, as he’s run a well-organized campaign that I believe most people see as fairly consistent with his values. DaveG is right. Obama is far to the left (though I would never underestimate his personal appeal). And republicans who constantly question McCain’s conservative credentials aren’t helping him.
Also - No to attacking Iran! It’s a bad idea, and it would play perfectly, and I mean perfectly, into Obama’s hands. I can see no quicker way to lose this election.
June 4th, 2008 at 5:32 am
While the day is young I want to make a little prediction for today. In his speech McCain said “pundits and party insiders” decided Obama would be his opponent. That is going to rub a lot of people, particularly in the media, the wrong way. So I predict we will see some strong pushback on that today. The press feels the Clintons have been beating them up and were already peeved and they are not going to let McCain, who once called the media his base, to get on that bandwagon.
June 4th, 2008 at 8:14 am
#166, all last n ight on the news I kept watching female Clinton supporters stating that the party insiders gave Obama the nomination. McCain was appealing to the anger of woman last night. It was a good move.