The Candidates
Rasmussen sets the baseline for the general election today:
General Election Matchup (w/out Leaners)
- Obama - 43%
- McCain - 41%
General Election Matchup With Leaners
- Obama - 47%
- McCain - 45%
Voters who are “certain” to vote for their candidate:
- Obama - 32%
- McCain - 32%
Favorable/Unfavorable
- Obama - 55/43
- McCain - 53/44
Party Breakdowns
- Obama wins 76% of Democrats (compared to 89% for Kerry in 2004)
- McCain wins 83% of Republicans (compared to 93% for Bush in 2004)
Demographic Breakdowns
- Obama wins 96% of blacks (compared to 88% for Kerry)
- McCain has a 13 point lead among whites (compared to an 18% lead for Bush in 2004)
- Obama has a 9 point lead among people of other races (compared to a 10 point lead for Kerry)
- Obama leads 2 to 1 among voters under 30 (compared to a 54-45 split in Kerry’s favor)
- McCain has a small lead among voters over 40, pulling in 50% of their support
- McCain wins entrepreneurs 53%-39%
- Obama wins “those who work for someone else” 50%-41%
June 4th, 2008 at 10:19 am
Wait a second…Obama is doing better among whites than Kerry did?
June 4th, 2008 at 10:22 am
Mr. Obama is probably getting a little bounce. Mr. McCain should eventually catch up and surpass him.
June 4th, 2008 at 10:38 am
LJ,
Obama won’t ultimately do better than whites than Kerry. I bet you any amount of money that Obama’s actual percentage is lower but there is just a reasonably high number of “undecideds”.
June 4th, 2008 at 10:39 am
Oops…Better *with* whites…
June 4th, 2008 at 11:02 am
It looks like McCain could do better than Bush among Hispanics and white women.
Of course there’s also the people who say they’ll vote for Obama because that’s what they’re supposed to say.
June 4th, 2008 at 11:03 am
I found it interesting that they are tied at 32% for “certain”. 32% for both seems low. I am still shocked that Obama is not up by 10%, like Kerry was 4 years ago.
June 4th, 2008 at 11:07 am
#5, intersting point. I remember back in Florida, McCain trounced Mitt, Huck and Rudy with Latino voters. That was not reflective in the polls before hand. Although McCain took a beating from conservatives over immigration, he might get a payback from Latino’s in November. Maybe we now know why he would not cave during the primaries? What do you think?
June 4th, 2008 at 11:07 am
I think the key will the the AGE. If McCain carrys 40 and older voters he likely wins. The question is what is the magic number that flips to obama, is it 43, 44, 45….
June 4th, 2008 at 11:19 am
By the Way instead of giving watching McCain Townhall for a few mintues and comparing to his speech he should never give another speech again. He should scrap his convention speech in favor of a townhall meeting.
June 4th, 2008 at 12:50 pm
Let’s see if Snobama gets his 10 point lead since the primary is over. If he doesn’t, good news for all of us.