The Candidates
The second day of the Rasmussen super-poll:
Rasmussen Reports Daily General Election Tracking Poll
Without Leaners
- Obama - 43%
- McCain - 41%
With Leaners
- Obama - 47%
- McCain - 45%
Favorable/Unfavorable
- McCain - 55/42
- Obama - 54/43
Obama as Polarizing, McCain as Plain
Very Favorable/Very Unfavorable
- Obama - 31/28
- McCain - 19/17
These polls by Scott have really upped the ante for other polling organizations. Beginning with yesterday’s results, they are based on a sample of 3,000 likely voters (a 3-day rolling sample of 1,000 each night) and have a margin of error of only 2 percent - unheard of for national polls. (Most tracking polls are based off of a sample of around 1,500 and have a 4-5% MoE.)
June 5th, 2008 at 11:07 am
Some in the media were predicting a 10 point bounce for Barry after he became the nominee. Looks like we dodged that bullet.
June 5th, 2008 at 11:09 am
Well, Saturday will really be the first day of total post-nomination-clinching numbers for Obama, so we’ll see. So far, so good though.
June 5th, 2008 at 11:14 am
Yeah… We won’t know Barry’s bounce until next week.
I do believe that he will break open a 10-12 point lead in national polling among registered voters (like the CBS News one that was just released) which will last through June and into July.
But the key to our sanity is to keep our eyes on Rasmussen during this time who is polling 3,000 likely voters. Barry may still get to a +6 or +8 for a time, but it won’t be as bad the doctored registered voters polls though.
Let me say this much… If Barry and McCain continue to trade +1 or +2 leads on each other through July and August in Rasmussen, we will win in November.
June 5th, 2008 at 11:18 am
I suspect we’ll be 3-4% behind during most of the summer.
June 5th, 2008 at 11:27 am
Good point, sampo, we successfully dodged a bullet.
June 5th, 2008 at 11:28 am
I’ll argue we won’t know the bounce… well, maybe better stated is we won’t know where this race is maybe until July or early August.
It is going to take AWHILE for us to know where Hillary supporters are in terms of polling. For God’s sake, look at how our side can’t let Romney go even now (as well as the Huckster and Rudy to certain extents). Hillary supporters are as passionate and perhaps moreso than those other 3 primary losers’ supporters are.
June 5th, 2008 at 11:29 am
Of course there are polls taken –not by just registered voters– but by adults. You gotta love those polls.
June 5th, 2008 at 11:38 am
Barring a major major gaff by, or revelation on, Obama, the ONLY factor that can/would shift the needle significantly (and permanently) in McCain’s favor, is McCain selecting Alaska Gov Sarah Palin as his running mate. Moreover, there’s no benefit — only negative — in McCain waiting on Palin. He should do it now.
June 5th, 2008 at 11:44 am
Obama is campaigning on “change.” Remember not too long ago when Kerry/Edwards, et. al., repeatedly campaigned on “change?” Change in Obama’s purse is not new, but just an old Democrat tactic to again attempt after failures to burden us with big government, weak security and high taxes.
Change from a Republican Presidency after 8 years is not change if a liberal Democrat takes the White House when the Democrats control Congress and much of the Senate.
It appears that Obama’s campaign slogan “change” is not a good thing when the House and Senate, which are controlled by Democrats have a 18.7 percent job approval rating.
Obama and the leftest Democrats should be outed on this weak campaign slogan “change.” Otherwise, it does not appear to be wise to allow the leftest Democrats to have a tripartite liberal dictatorship.
June 5th, 2008 at 11:51 am
Obama is running on change.
McCain needs to point out that Obama is running to give Democrats total control of the government with no opposition. Americans may not want an administration that can do whatever it wants with a rubber stamp Congress…
June 5th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
This dynamic is probably pretty similar to the Nixon-McGovern race. I’m not suggesting that John McCain is like Richard Nixon, but my guess is that in that race, most Nixon voters only had a “somewhat favorable” opinion of him whereas most McGovern voters probably had a “very favorable” opinion and that is why they called it the silent majority. Whether McCain wins or loses, he will not inspire the same kind of passion that Obama does. Secondly, I noticed in the poll yesterday that only 32% would definitely vote for McCain and 32% would definitely vote for Obama. 36% said they could change their mind. That is a sign this race could be a lot more fluid than the Bush-Kerry race.
June 5th, 2008 at 12:28 pm
Econ, I agree. I have thought for a while that a plausible plan for McCain is to run away from Bush (where he can) & run against Congress. (Sarkozy just successfully did that.)
The Country does not look kindly on the 2004-2006 years because “Conservative” Reps. ran the whole show and half the County felt alienated. If Obama wins it would create the same dynamic except in reverse, with Liberals.
Imagine how much more hyper-partisan everything will be with liberal Dems running the whole government (not to mention how much worse it would be if the Dems got a filibuster proof majority).
June 5th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
The traditional Democratic mark after a nomination is between %12 and %15. If Obama misses this, his campaign will be in trouble.
June 5th, 2008 at 5:26 pm
Bad news for Macca the bounce will be 10 points (he will claw it back but it will be back to 10 points after Denver).
Good news for Macca Hill for VP appears to be losing steam before it even started.