The Candidates
A recent Barna poll found that non-evangelical born again voters (37% of all likely voters) are supporting Obama over McCain.
In 2004, 52% of these voters supported George Bush. Right now Obama has the support of 48% of these born again voters. McCain has only 38% support.
David Brody of CBN reports that Obama is making a major push to attract younger Evangelicals and Catholics to his campaign. The effort is called the “Joshua Generation Project”.
I suspected Obama’s efforts to woo religious voters in the Kentucky primary would be carried on into the general election.
I’m not an Evangelical but my wife volunteers in a pregnancy care center. Let’s just say we’re familiar with conservative activists from the Catholic, Evangelical, and Protestant communities. Obama is positioned to win record numbers of conservative Christians.
If McCain doesn’t improve his numbers among these voters he will lose the election.
June 9th, 2008 at 6:17 pm
I think might help explain:
June 9th, 2008 at 6:20 pm
It is an interesting approach that Barna uses to “scientifically” categorize beliefs. I would be interested in a comparative study of persons that self-identify as “born-again” and “evangelical”.
June 9th, 2008 at 6:20 pm
Thanks CBL for posting that. It was bit too bulky for the front page.
June 9th, 2008 at 6:31 pm
Hey… GENERATION JOSHUA is a registered trademark of the Home School Legal Defense Association…
http://tarr.uspto.gov/servlet/tarr?regser=serial&entry=76639046
GENERATION JOSHUA supported Huckabee…
http://www.generationjoshua.org
And, I expect, will work tirelessly to defeat Obama (especially if Huckabee is the VP).
June 9th, 2008 at 6:59 pm
McCain isn’t exactly a person with a strong, public faith, and hasn’t put much of his time into actively pushing socially conservative goals.
So its understandable that he gets less support.
June 9th, 2008 at 7:01 pm
Well if he makes a poor VP choice I could see this happening to the point of being significant.
June 9th, 2008 at 7:04 pm
I can think of three people, off-hand, who could help with this problem. Huckabee, Palin, and Pawlenty. Huck for obvious reasons. Palin because she’s strongly pro-life, and has become something of a hero in pro-life circles following her pregnancy. Additionally, she believes in climate change, an issue that is sending large groups of evangelicals to the Democrats. Pawlenty because his pastor is the head of the largest evangelical church group in the country, and because he’s a former Catholic, and because he also believes in climate change and his blue-collar language appeals to waivering evangelicals who say things like, as my soon to be pastor friend did recently, “I don’t want babies to die, but I also want to feed the poor and help the working-man”.
June 9th, 2008 at 7:19 pm
I’m beginning to think some of the so-cons are right. I wish it weren’t the case - but Hillary supporters in the Rasmussen and Gallup polls (or at least enough of them) seem to be moving to Obama. Now not all of them will but from the polling and the stories I’ve read lately (particularly McCain’s Ohio problem with the Christian Right and their lack of enthusiasm for him) I think he’s got to find some way to placate the single issue voters. It sucks - but I don’t think his numbers alone (unless they change) are going to be enough to win. McCain only has mid teen very favorable ratings, significantly less than Obama’s (very unfavorable numbers are another story).
He’s got to pick a so-con - a reliable so-con. And he’s got to keep up with his support of “green” stuff. Also - he can’t piss off the Hispanics like Romney did - and even selecting Romney might make the 40 percent or so, or at least a good chunk of them, jump ship. So now he’s got no other choice but to go with a so-con that will energize the so-cons at the same time keeping as many centrists as possible. Huckabee is out. He is too gaffe prone and too “churchy”. From where I sit I don’t see any other good options but Pawlenty, Palin or perhaps Carcieri.
June 9th, 2008 at 7:21 pm
Matthew, I don’t think a VP pick is enough. It’s a good start, but it’s not a silver bullet.
On a fundamental level McCain has difficulty connecting with this group of voters.
He’s shown the potential to fix this. His advisers need to find subtle, authentic ways for McCain to demonstrate where his values come from.
June 9th, 2008 at 7:26 pm
CBL,
Roll call had a quote from HSDLA’s president Michael Farris stating that he is looking into legal action for trademark infringement.
“This is an improper invasion of our trademark and we’ve retained legal counsel to notify the Obama campaign to stop this,” HSLDA’s co-founder, chairman, and general counsel, Michael Farris, told Roll Call on Monday morning. The conservative group plans to notify the Obama campaign later today.”
The interesting wrinkle is that there is also a Christian ministry that uses the same name that Obama chose. So it could be that in the end it could be that Obama loses by trying to win evangelicals.
This comment box is acting weird and I can’t see half my comment, so I’m typing blind but if you’re interested I have all the links up at my blog.
June 9th, 2008 at 7:26 pm
This was exactly my point in the West Virginia poll thread the other day. Now I have numbers to back it up.
Religious conservatives aren’t excited about McCain, and that’s putting it nicely. Then they look over and see this other guy who’s willing to openly talk about his faith and what his relationship with Jesus means to him, and who do you think they’re going to feel more comfortable with?
Who cares about Jeremiah Wright outside of the blogosphere? Not many people, and a tiny fraction of that even by the time November rolls around.
My prediction: Obama narrowly wins born again voters in November.
June 9th, 2008 at 7:36 pm
Hey… GENERATION JOSHUA is a registered trademark of the Home School Legal Defense Association…
http://tarr.uspto.gov/servlet/tarr?regser=serial&entry=76639046
GENERATION JOSHUA worked in support of Huckabee…
http://www.generationjoshua.org
And, I expect, they will work tirelessly to defeat Obama (especially if Huckabee is the VP).
June 9th, 2008 at 7:37 pm
Senator McCain needs to exploit his deep and newfound roots in the Baptist Church community. His first task needs to be courting and acquiring the support of respected Evangelicals such as Rick Warren, Paul Crouch and Dr. Joyce Meyers. Secondly he needs to announce a very formal one on one meeting with Dr. James Dobson and have Dobson endorse and speak on his behalf. Then I believe that McCain needs to get the Catholic Bishops on board with a bold public promise that by the end of his first term in office, Roe v. Wade will be gone; a remnant of the 20th century left in the dust bin of history. This pronouncement and “read my lips” type promise to overturn Roe within 4 years will get Evangelicals, Catholics and Mormons energized for McCain to turn out for him in November.
June 9th, 2008 at 7:37 pm
Matt C,
It depends on what McCain does over the next few months. Obama is FAR from a natural candidate for born-again voters, but he’s benefiting thus far for two reasons. 1.) Young born again types are far different from older born-again voters. I attend a church which has a median age of about 25, accepts the major doctrines of Christianity (the incarnation, the resurrection, miracles, etc), and has a fiercely passionate following. But, they’re prone to talking about climate change and feeding the poor, and showing tolerance towards homosexuals. There’s nothing per se that they reject about traditional Christianity, but they’re nonetheless decidedly not a part of the traditional Christianity. Alot of the younger evangelicals are like this, and are therefore ideologically in tune with Democrats on some issues, on the one hand, and attracted to Barack Obama’s youth and appealing change narrative on the other hand. 2.) John McCain has done almost nothing to reach out to evangelicals. Now ultimately, I think both problems could be mostly addressed by selecting a young running-mate like Palin or Pawlenty, who have inroads with evangelicals. Mac’s position on global warming is already an in to some of the heartstrings of the new evangelical class, and if he can add some youthful blue-collar populism, and solid, but not raving, religiosity and social conservatism to the ticket, he ought to be fine. If he selects Tom Ridge, we’re dead in the water.
June 9th, 2008 at 7:39 pm
Sorry for the repost… strange.
June 9th, 2008 at 7:47 pm
Someone just needs to explain to these people that Obama is Anti-Death Penalty, Pro-Abortion and Partial Birth Abortion, is in favor of appointing left wing liberal justices to continue roe v wade and perhaps pass homosexual marriage laws. I know quite a bit of born again christian’s and they detest Obama b/c of his muslim background and the fact that he’s such a liberal so these numbers just dont make sense to me but then again its really early and i bet my election day those number’s will look much different in McCain’s favor.
June 9th, 2008 at 7:50 pm
…And McCain is actually considering choosing Ridge or Lieberman for VP???
If McCain’s stupid enough to seriously be considering folks like Ridge and Lieberman for VP, he deserves to lose in a landslide.
June 9th, 2008 at 7:50 pm
I think these people will realize they don’t like Obama as much after Wright is publicized moreas we get closer to the election. Right now most people just know that Obama’s pastor is extreme. Once they know he is so anti-American it will make a difference for lots of the younger Evangelicals. At least that’s what I hope.
June 9th, 2008 at 7:53 pm
Have you read the poll? It is terribly flawed.
“…This report is based upon telephone interviews conducted by The Barna Group with a random sample of 1003 adults selected from across the continental United States, age 18 and older, in May 2008. The maximum margin of sampling error associated with the aggregate sample is ±3.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. Minimal statistical weighting was used to calibrate the aggregate sample to known population percentages in relation to several key demographic variables.
To focus on the leanings of “likely voters,” 561 such adults were interviewed. A likely voter was defined as one who is registered to vote; voted in the 2004 presidential election; could recall the candidate they voted for that year; and claims they will “definitely” vote in the November election. Among people of voting age who were too young to vote in the 2004 election, the criteria were altered to reflect their ineligible status four years ago. The maximum margin of sampling error associated with the aggregate sample is ±4.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level….”
I’ve seen some flawed polls, but this is one of the worst.
SJR
The Pink Flamingo
June 9th, 2008 at 7:58 pm
If we limit this to Evangelicals we miss the bigger picture. We’re talking about McCain’s weakness with 46% of voters.
These voters range from conservative Evangelicals, conservative Mainline Protestants (me), Catholics, Mormons and Pentecostals.
I don’t think the old Evangelical power brokers have any effect on voters. You’ve got to appeal to this varied half of the electorate that’s conservative Christian.
John McCain does have some unique weaknesses with this group. However Republicans in general are also losing this group.
Our opposition to abortion or gay marriage seems symbolic to these voters. Sure they care but they don’t trust Republicans to do anything about them. So why not vote for a Democrat?
I think the answer is to include practical everyday element of social conservatism in our platform. David Cameron, leader of the British Conservative Party, is leading the way here.
http://www.conservatives.com/tile.do?def=news.story.page&obj_id=142994&speeches=1
Could you imagine McCain standing up and saying he’ll reform our laws to make them family friendly. To make America a better place to raise children.
Republican politicians have lost their credibility with social conservatives by doing nothing to make American family friendly and child friendly.
June 9th, 2008 at 7:59 pm
The United States Council of Catholic Bishops has published a document entitled, “Forming Consciences for Faithful Citizenship.” Most of it is point-by-point taken up in the Democratic party platform. While people may be new to the term “black liberation theology”, liberation theology been part and parcel of the Catholic church for a long time, especially in South America and other impoverished nations. The biography “Mountains Beyond Mountains,” is an excellent example of the power of liberation theology. In that book a highly respected atheist physician became Catholic after witnessing the tangible effects it could have in terms of improving the lot of the very poor in Haiti. In America the Church is a major supporter of lax border enforcement and services for illegal immigrants as a direct result of liberation theology.
Of course, in the same document there’s a great deal on cloning, embryonic stem cells and abortion. Here there is a clear divergence with the Dem. party platform. However, the CHurch makes it clear that one should not be a “single-issue” voter.
So what is a good Catholic to do? I would imagine it all comes down to what their own personal litmus test is. There is no candidate that will satisfy all the requirements of the document from the USCCB.
June 9th, 2008 at 8:16 pm
Republicans and Conservatives need to find a way to combat what we might call the religious left - those who try to rewrite the Bible to instruct people to follow a liberal agenda.
We should start by combatting the socialism thing by pointing out the failures of socialist governments, and by pointing out both the failures of excessive charity - particularly to third-world nations, and the huge generosity that already exists.
You also have to point out the economic and social disaster that mass amnesty would be - the violent culture shock that it would create, the additional burden it would put on already-strained welfare systems, and the additional cost (both in money and jobs) to average americans.
The whole social issues area - well, thats the easiest to combat, since, unlike the other things, you can pull the bible right into the middle of the conversation.
June 9th, 2008 at 8:19 pm
Oh, and on the Catholic Bishops - it might be time to have the President appeal directly to His Holiness to tell these people to stop promoting illegal activity (on immigration), and an economic policy that, while it may provide better care for the poor, also leads to an increase in unemployment, and a host of other problems.
June 9th, 2008 at 8:21 pm
Meanwhile, Andrew Sullivan is salivating at the prospect of “Obama Republicans”. This is sad beyond measure.
June 9th, 2008 at 8:31 pm
“Obama Republicans”
…if McCain chooses a moderate, liberal, or underqualified VP, there may be quite a few of those.
June 9th, 2008 at 8:37 pm
ACT,
That’s just stupid. McCain chooses a VP nominee deemed too liberal by Republicans so they go with the MORE liberal guy?
June 9th, 2008 at 8:48 pm
Adam,
If McCain doesn’t offer enough on ideology/vision, some voters will just vote for the guy that looks good and makes them feel better about themselves.
It may be stupid but it’s how some people will vote.
June 9th, 2008 at 9:03 pm
You know, not one commenter has yet to point out the obvious.
Everyone is talking about how McCain is weaker among religious people (let’s just call them religious people to keep things simple) than Bush because Mac is less overtly religious.
And everyone is talking about how Obama is more popular among the religious than Kerry, both because the issues that the religious care about are changing, and because Obama is more overtly religious than Kerry.
What’s being missed here is that the electorate isn’t entirely comprised of religious people. There are plenty of non-religious voters, as well as voters who are personally religious but who don’t want to hear politicians talking about religion. McCain has the opportunity to win greater numbers of these voters than Bush did, both because Obama’s Religious Left schtick will turn them off, and because McCain’s almost quasi-Deism will turn them on.
Folks who are suggesting that McCain needs to start talking about his relationship with Jesus are taking exactly the wrong message away from this data. The last thing McCain should do is invent some public relationship with a deity in order to win votes, if only because such a thing is in itself cynical and insincere.
June 9th, 2008 at 9:12 pm
Could you imagine McCain standing up and saying he’ll reform our laws to make them family friendly. To make America a better place to raise children.
If McCain ran on making America an easier place to care for your family, I think he’d improve his performance with both religious and non-religious voters alike.
June 9th, 2008 at 9:41 pm
“Obama is positioned to win record numbers of conservative Christians.”
If they are voting for Obama how can they be considered ‘conservative’ Christians? Are they ‘conservative’ theologically but not necessarily politically conservative? Why are they poised to vote for Obama over McCain? Why and on what issues are they more attracted to Obama–someone who is pro-abortion and pro-gay?
June 9th, 2008 at 9:47 pm
#27 - DaveG: “The last thing McCain should do is invent some public relationship with a deity in order to win votes, if only because such a thing is in itself cynical and insincere.”
And to do so would paint McCain as very “Bush like” — the Bush III label that the Obama campaign is trying to pin on him. And the perception of a “Bush III” is certain death.
June 9th, 2008 at 9:57 pm
[...] enjoyed reading Doug’s commentary on McCain’s weakness among religious voters relative to Bush’s performance in 2004. [...]
June 9th, 2008 at 11:51 pm
This is laughable. If born agains are voting because of religion, then they’re quite misinformed about Obama. Obama is anathema to people who vote based on religion…unless that religion supports abortion in every circumstance, as well as placing birthed children on shelves in hospital rooms to die slowly. Then they’re right in line with BarryO.
June 10th, 2008 at 2:22 am
Chris L. you’re right. They’re Christians, but not conservative Christians. I think they emphasis social justice rather than moral and ethical issues. In that way they are certainly more “progressive” in the way that liberals like to think of themselves.
June 10th, 2008 at 2:25 am
I may be out on a limb- but I think Jesus would not make a very good President. On the other hand, He wouldn’t want to be President, anyway.