The Candidates
Ummm…this is not a very pleasing result.
Rasmussen North Carolina General Election
- John McCain 45%
- Barack Obama 43%
This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on June 10, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
June 12th, 2008 at 2:24 pm
Heads up for the bloggers:
Ron Paul will be announcing the end of his presidential campaign this evening, and the launch of a new advocacy group called Campaign For Liberty: http://www.dailypaul.com/node/52162
The announcement can be viewed live tonight here — http://www.justin.tv/ronpaul2008
June 12th, 2008 at 2:35 pm
LJ,
Not much has changed here. Two months ago, the race was tied in NC. In May, McCain’s lead was just three.
The favorables/unfavorables demonstrate that McCain is on more solid footing than Obama in the Tarheel State:
Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)
McCain 55% / 42% (+13%)
Obama 49% / 50% (-1%)
June 12th, 2008 at 2:39 pm
North Carolina is an example of a state that we will win by slimmer margins than we did in 2004 due to increased AA turnout.
In the end, we will probably win NC by 7%-8% instead of the 13% we did in 2004.
June 12th, 2008 at 2:44 pm
The rule of thumb is that a Democrat needs to get 35% of the white vote in order to win North Carolina. That’s very hard to get in a Presidential race, and it will be especially hard for Obama. What he has in his favor is that blacks may turn out in slightly higher numbers than 2004.
June 12th, 2008 at 2:47 pm
I just checked. In 2004, whites accounted for 70% of the state and went 73-27 for Bush. Blacks accounted for 26% of the state and went 85-14 for Kerry. Obama may raise that turnout enough to make it close, but it probably won’t be enough for him to win.
June 12th, 2008 at 2:47 pm
This is bad news indeed. It looks like McCain will need to put in an
extra effort to win states like SC, NC and VA. This unfortunately, will
devert very valuable time, effort and resources from traditional “swing”
states that McCain also needs to win.
June 12th, 2008 at 2:48 pm
The bigger concern is the possibility of Dole losing.
June 12th, 2008 at 2:49 pm
Joshua, nah, some of this is just Obama’s post-nomination bounce. Bush won by 12 points in ‘04, that would be a huge reversal.
June 12th, 2008 at 2:52 pm
I guess the thing I’m most nervous about is every day that the national polls show Obama ahead, the impression is created in people’s minds that Obama is the frontrunner and McCain the underdog, instead of thinking of it as a tied race. People like to be with a winner.
June 12th, 2008 at 2:54 pm
ug ug ug! the whole country should tune into McCain’s live townhall meeting on fox news tonight. 7et i think.
June 12th, 2008 at 3:07 pm
#9. clarence, you are so correct on this one. The thing that I hope happens is on election day everyone will be going “huh?” when he loses by a landslide. He didn’t win the nomination, he isn’t ahead in the polls, he isn’t the messiah, he isn’t brilliant, he isn’t honest, he doesn’t have good judgement and he wasn’t in the senate so he couldn’t vote against the war and the latest is he never said he would immediately withdraw troops from Iraq. Now, would somebody please tell me what is going on in this country? I’m getting a little nervous.
June 12th, 2008 at 3:25 pm
Clarence,
McCain is an awful front-runner and a terrific underdog, as this years campaign ought to have shown. He lost ground in Michigan after his NH win. He lost ground in Florida after his SC win. McCain does best when he can quietly campaign as an anti-establishment underdog.
June 12th, 2008 at 3:32 pm
McCain definitely does run better as an underdog. That’s a very good point.
June 12th, 2008 at 4:04 pm
I agree with #s 12 and 13. McCain functions best when someone’s putting the fear of God into him, electorally speaking. I mean, I would be happy if he was five points ahead of Obama, but he has a tendency to trip up when he’s out front. Plus, his whole rhetorical toolbox is much better suited to an underdog. This ain’t that bad of a place to be, and plays to his strengths.
June 12th, 2008 at 5:16 pm
The important thing to note is that all of the variance is on McCain’s side. Obama has only gotten above 45 in one NC poll for the past year. Aside from 4/10 Rasmussen poll, Barry’s numbers have been at or below 45 in every single other poll, and Obama has never led in a NC poll. It’s going to be closer than 2000 and 2004 thanks to AA turnout but the Magic O is going to have to look elsewhere for those electoral votes.
See:
Date Poll Source Spread McCain Obama Ind Und M.O.E. Sample #C
2008-06-10 Rasmussen M +2 45% 43% 6% 5% 4% 500 L 0
2008-05-29 Public Policy Polling M +3 43% 40% 6% 12% 4% 543 L 0
2008-05-19 Survey USA M +8 51% 43% 4% 2% 4% 713 L 0
2008-05-17 Other Source M +5 44% 39% 0% 18% 4% 800 L 0
2008-05-09 Public Policy Polling M +7 49% 42% 0% 9% 4% 616 L 0
2008-05-08 Rasmussen M +3 48% 45% 5% 2% 5% 500 L 0
2008-04-30 Research 2000 M +9 50% 41% 0% 9% 4% 600 L 0
2008-04-10 Other Source M +9 48% 39% 0% 13% 4% 800 L 0
2008-04-10 Rasmussen Tie 47% 47% 0% 6% 5% 500 L 0
2008-03-20 Rasmussen M +9 51% 42% 2% 5% 5% 500 L 0
2008-02-28 Survey USA M +2 47% 45% 0% 8% 4% 630 R 0
2008-02-22 Other Source M +10 46% 36% 0% 18% 4% 800 L 0
2008-02-18 Public Policy Polling M +5 47% 42% 0% 11% 4% 686 L 0
2008-01-21 Public Policy Polling M +14 52% 38% 0% 10% 4% 762 L 0
2007-06-19 Public Policy Polling M +1 45% 44% 0% 11% 4% 545 L 0
http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?fips=37
June 12th, 2008 at 5:30 pm
way too close for comfort.
June 12th, 2008 at 5:36 pm
NC & Indiana will be won by less than 5%.
Georgia not sure.
June 12th, 2008 at 5:38 pm
No one is mentioning it here but there are major demographic shifts going on in North Carolina as a result of its high growth in population. While it doesn’t match the effect Northern Virginia is having on Virginia, it is happening nonetheless. North Carolina is attracting workers from all over the demographic divide. Many non-college educated are moving from Ohio, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania. In fact locals call Interstate 77 the “Hillbilly Highway” because on the weekends and major holidays there is a stream of North Carolina vehicles heading north. Additionally the Charlotte, Greensboro, Raleigh, Durham areas are attracting more college education, Masters degree type candidates from the Northeast, bringing their voting patterns with them. If you are interested the University of North Carolina public policy school has put out some studies on the changing demo’s in NC. Gamecock, being from that area I’m sure can add more. But if those studies are correct I’d say you are looking at North Carolina being purple by 2012-2016.
June 12th, 2008 at 8:08 pm
Look two to four cycles down the road. Where are republicans going to call their base?
VA, NC are trending blue due to trends #18 pointed out, w/VA further along.
NH has gone blue and only McCain has an opportunity to contest that.
The northeast and pacific are gone
NM, CO and NV are in play now and will become out of reach due to immigration
TX will actually be contested, maybe GA too (immigration and migration).
FL is unpredictable. Migration patterns have balanced each other out for the most part, current advantage for republicans. As long as Castro stays in power, I dont see dramatic changes. But if he goes and Cuba opens up, where will Cubans go (literally and politically).
What’s left? Not much, just the plains, intermountain west and the non urban southern states.
Where can gains occur. WV for starters: It happened already.
OH is a good demographic fit for republicans and would be reliable if the local economy was better.
IA may be a long term gain as well.
THat doesnt compare well against the Democrat base. How will Republicans cobble together 270 in 2016 or 2020, especially when the US is more urban, educated, and has a larger minority population and fewer working class white voters?