The Candidates
As a resident of Abington Township, a municipality just north of Philadelphia in eastern Montgomery County, I enjoy my county’s status as one of the more competitive battlegrounds in an area of the country where Democrats continue to push past the GOP. Sadly, despite years of Republican rule, Democrats now outnumber Republicans for the first time in county history. This trend is prevalent throughout the state, as Democrats scrambled to register before the April 22nd primary and overall GOP numbers dwindled to just over 3 million.
The ominous numbers via the Pennsylvania Department of State:
Since January, 218,923 new voters have registered. Of those, 152,775 registered Democratic and 40,195 registered Republican.
Also since January, 164,026 registered voters changed their affiliation to Democratic and 14,887 changed to Republican.
In all, there are now over 8.3 million registered voters in Pennsylvania (4.2 million Democrats, 3.2 million Republicans, and nearly 1 million unaffiliated voters).
The surge in voting registration may ease and those Republicans who wished to influence the April 22nd Democratic results could return the “R” to their registration card, but Obama will surely drive up African-American turnout in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.
Now let us look at Montgomery County’s voting record in the 2008 Democratic primary along with recent Presidential elections:
April 22nd primary:
Recent Presidential Elections:
What do all these numbers mean? Although Montgomery County and Pennsylvania as a whole seem likely to remain in the Democratic column come November, there is an opening for John McCain. Despite increased movement by Philadelphia Democrats into the county, the majority of Montgomery County voters do not align themselves with Barack Obama’s ideology and worldview. Even county Dems seem much closer to Bill Clinton and Al Gore circa 2000 than they are to the New Left represented by Carter, Dukakis, and now Obama.
Of course, times change. George W. Bush and the Iraq War are unpopular to both Democrats and Republicans in these parts. The public officials held in the highest regard are Governor Ed Rendell, Senator Arlen Specter, and Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter. Yet, I remain hopeful for McCain’s chances. If he succeeds in running a center-right campaign that sufficiently breaks from the failures of the Bush Administration and promises to restore efficiency, effectiveness, and integrity in Washington, I am confident that county voters will endorse him as they did with other moderate Republicans in 1976 and 1988.
As I placed a ”McCain for President” on my family’s front lawn the other day (to the horror of my Democratic mother), I realized that the Arizona Senator must make a stand in counties such as mine, as they will be pivotal in his struggle to capture states such as Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
A profile of Abington can be found here.
A profile of Montgomery County can be found here.
June 18th, 2008 at 10:30 pm
If Obama is in trouble here he loses big time.
He aint going to lose big time!
June 19th, 2008 at 9:32 pm
What I find interesting about Michael’s data is the results of the past elections. What happened between 1988 and 1992? The example of this PA county is repleat all over the northern, midwestern, and West coast suburbs. Why did the Republicans stop winning in 1992 and since? Did the voters in all of these areas change abruptly, or did their perception of the Party and its candidates change? These questions deserve serious examination.
June 19th, 2008 at 9:34 pm
What I find interesting about Michael’s data is the results of the past elections. What happened between 1988 and 1992? The example of this PA county is the same all over the northern, midwestern, and West coast suburbs. Why did the Republicans stop winning in 1992 and since? Did the voters in all of these areas change abruptly, or did their perception of the Party and its candidates change? These questions deserve serious examination.