The Candidates
Remember how the silence regarding the Obama Camp’s May fundraising numbers caused many pundits to speculate that Sen. Obama may be headed towards a record shattering month? Perhaps even $100 million for the month of May alone?
As it turns out, Sen. Obama and Sen. McCain raised nearly identical figures for the month; Obama came in at $22 million compared to Sen. McCain’s $21 million. Obama’s May showing represents a 30% decrease from April. In fact, McCain and Obama have essentially reached financial parity in terms of cash-on-hand (all emphasis mine):
…[Obama] ending the month with $43 million cash on hand and $304,000 in debts. But $10 million of his available cash can only be spent in the fall after the party national conventions, leaving $33 million for the summer months. Obama’s decision to bypass the general election’s public finance system allows him to use left over primary money in the fall campaign.
Republican John McCain, who secured his party’s nomination in March, raised $21 million in May and had $31.6 million in the bank.The figures place him virtually on same financial footing as Obama — a level of parity that would have been unimaginable just a few months ago.
Even more good news is found in the CoH figures of the two respective parties:
The Republican National Committee, however, ended June with 13 times more money in the bank than the Democratic National Committee. The RNC had $53 million cash on hand to the DNC’s $4 million. Both parties are allowed to assist their presidential candidates with coordinated campaigns.
As Sean noted earlier, Obama outspent Clinton 3 to 1 in Pennsylvania only to lose by 10 points. Essentially, Obama had to outspend Clinton by 40% to draw her to a statistical tie in the overall vote.
And if these fundraising patterns hold up, it appears that Obama will not have that luxury in the general election.
June 23rd, 2008 at 3:53 pm
I suspect this gloating will be short-lived… the Obama campaign is a highly effective fundraising machine, and they’ll now have access to the HRC mailing list as well as K-Street cash (yes, he’ll take it!) $500 million might be a reach, but they’ll outspend mac by at least 3-1.
June 23rd, 2008 at 3:58 pm
Obama’s donations are driven by media events.
In this slow media cycle his funding should be anemic. I expect him to rebound in either August or September. By October he ought to be swimming in money.
June 23rd, 2008 at 3:59 pm
David #1,
Yeah… But it sure was fun to write it though…
June 23rd, 2008 at 4:12 pm
Great thread Kavon!
Obama currently has $10 million to spend for the fall campaign. McCain will receive over $80 million in public funds to begin after the GOP convention. Because the GOP convention was moved to September, McCain will have 9 weeks to spend this cash (btw, a little more than Bush spent in his final 9 weeks). Any cash McCain raises and spends between now and then, falls under “GOP primary campaign” spending.
Obama has 9 weeks (from today) to raise $70+ million to match McCain and the DNC $50+ million to catch the RNC before the DNC convention. This is, of course not taking in to account that the RNC will continue to raise fund between now and then.
With the RNC advantage over the DNC and the McCain public financing, this means Obama/DNC have started out with a $120+ million gap.
Of course, if they fall short, they still have the final 9 weeks of the campaign to catch up to McCain. Also keep in mind, team Obama employs almost 600 more employees than team McCain.
It looks as if the father of the campaign finance reform legislation has pulled a fast one!
June 23rd, 2008 at 4:21 pm
David A B,
Where is there evidence that the majority of Clinton fundraisers are supporting Obama? Many are still uncommitted, and some have actually joined the McCain team (especially the Israel lobby).
At Obama’s fundraising height, he was bringing in $1.8 million dollars per day (late January to the end of February). If he is able to match these number, he will bring in over $110 million between now and the convention. How much funds will he have to divert to the DNC?
Obama fundraising has been on the decline for the previous 4 months.
Feb - $55 million
May - $22 million
June 23rd, 2008 at 4:27 pm
While Hillary won’t burn bridges in her own party, I question just how committed she is to helping Obama win in November, especially when her eyes are seemingly still focused on the presidency…in 2012.
Take a look at this video she sent out to her supporters this morning…
June 23rd, 2008 at 4:28 pm
Bob: Let’s put it this way - Obama opted out a few days ago… obviously, they know on a day-by-day basis how much money is coming in, what the response rate on their list is, pledges, etc. If June was running as slow as May they wouldn’t have opted out, would’ve they?
I wouldn’t underestimate the Obama fundraising juggernaut.
June 23rd, 2008 at 4:34 pm
I’m telling you guys. The elite libs think Obama became President when Hillary conceded. They have NO intention of donating money after he already won.
Libs are the most ungenerous sect in America. H/T Who Really Cares: The Surprising Truth About Compasionate Conservatism Who Gives, Who Doesn’t, and Why It Matters
June 23rd, 2008 at 4:44 pm
David A B,
In fact Obama can opt back in before the convention. Another loophole McCain icluded in CFR and in fact took advantage of this past spring for the primary season.
His campaign set records, I admit that. I am just saying that the DNC fundraising issue will be a huge drag for him. Say the RNC raises $25 million next month. The DNC will have to raise $77 million to make up the difference to match cash on hand.
I predict Obama will have to scale back his competitive states by September. Keep in mind, after the GOP Convention, McCain spends ZERO time and resources on fundraising.
June 23rd, 2008 at 4:53 pm
This is an amazing decline for Obama, and what the heck has Howard Dean been doing with his time? Only $3.9 million in the bank in a year that is apparently a Democratic one?
June 23rd, 2008 at 6:02 pm
Obama Offers $400 Million to First to Build a Flux Capacitor
June 29th, 2008 at 10:39 am
I have been saying for awhile that his fundraising - at least from small donors - could not hold up. They are already tapped out. I would be surprised to see that he will be able to keep up the kind of money machine he has had up until now. Granted he has raised a lot more money from fat cats - something the media overlooks, but there is only so much of that he can do.