The Candidates
I stand fast in my belief (shared, apparently, with Andrew Sullivan) that the decision has already been made to offer the #2 spot to Tim Pawlenty.
Predictions aside, The New York Observer’s Steve Kornacki writes that the Minnesota Governor may be a little too “white bread” to change the electoral dynamics of the 2008 election:
Just yesterday, in what amounted to an informal audition for McCain’s No. 2 slot, Pawlenty gave a flat performance on ABC’s This Week, where he was paired against Democratic Representative Rahm Emanuel in a dueling-surrogates segment. Pawlenty was faithful to the McCain’s campaign’s message of the week – that Barack Obama, unlike McCain, has never risked the ire of his own party in pursuing his political principles – but there was nothing distinct or memorable about his presentation. His arguments, his tone, his cadence and even his attempts at humor (“The Obama and Hillary Clinton rally shouldn’t have been in Unity, New Hampshire – it should have been in “Political Expediency, New Hampshire!”) were utterly formulaic.
Most voters will probably think about McCain’s vice-presidential candidate only three times: when McCain announces his choice, when the V.P. candidate addresses the Republican convention, and during the V.P. debate in the fall.
So what value would Pawlenty add to the ticket? His first opportunity for publicity – when McCain announces the pick – would be a wasted venture because no one (outside of Minnesota) knows Pawlenty and there’s nothing dramatic in his background (he’s spent his life in Minnesota politics). He’ll come across as another late-middle-aged politician with talking points.
Nor would Pawlenty be likely to excel in his convention speech or in the fall debate, the other two occasions when he’d be in position to sway mass opinion. As his appearance on ABC on Sunday showed, and as just about all of his appearances elsewhere have shown this year, he is a competent speaker and debater, fully capable of delivering exactly the kind of performance that voters would expect from someone who strikes them as a generic politician. Lloyd Bentsen, the Democrats’ ’88 V.P. pick, used his debate with Dan Quayle to transform himself from a generic-seeming politician into a player in his own right. There’s been little to suggest that we can suggest any such transformation from Pawlenty, who struggled to stand out on Sunday against Rahm Emanuel.
June 30th, 2008 at 3:22 pm
I think Pawlenty is on the list. But his consistently underwhelming performances may be hurting his stock. I don’t see any reason to think the choice haas been made. It seems like the McCain camp still has a number of options on the table from my point of view.
June 30th, 2008 at 3:27 pm
I agree Palin for VP. I see no reason why McCain should have the VP locked up now, and I doubt he does. I wonder if they even have a shortlist that doesn’t change weekly. I think McCain should wait until Obama picks HIS VP and then counter with someone in the shortlist that is most appropriate.
June 30th, 2008 at 3:30 pm
Its unfair to judge someone by an appearance on a talk show (although I saw that show and Rahm E. ate Pawlenty’s lunch). I think it may just be Pawlenty has a folksy personality.
Rarely is it a good idea to be on defense and picking a VP to counter what someone else does makes for a poor choice.
June 30th, 2008 at 3:35 pm
Speaking of underwhelming, I thought Portman didn’t do himself any favors on Fox News Sunday this week either. Pawlenty is what he is - a “safe pick”. However, with the environment the way it is this election year, McCain can’t afford to make that kind of choice.
June 30th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
Here is the question for everyone…..
What potential choices for Obama would/should impact McCain’s choice? Obama picks a woman, fellow Senator, ex-military, a Republican (Hagel), etc? Any thoughts?
June 30th, 2008 at 3:57 pm
I think yer right, Hannity show fill-in today picks Pawlenty too, and claims first hand knowledge of their tight relationship. I won’t vote for a McCain/Pawlenty though. Yawn.
June 30th, 2008 at 3:59 pm
If Obama picked Rendell, then Ridge would likely be eliminated from consideration.
If Obama went with Hillary, then McCain would probably need to counter such an All-Star ticket with an established household name like Lieberman or Giuliani.
If Obama were to select Bayh or Vilsack, McCain could reciprocate, playing it safe with Pawlenty.
Though such a scenario seems highly improbable, if Obama sought to bolster his military credentials by picking Jim Jones, McCain could one-up him with Petraeus.
June 30th, 2008 at 4:06 pm
Romney is going to be McCain’s choice, and by announcing it around AUG 1…he will have a week’s worth of press before the Olypmics starts….
And, dont forget the Romney/Olympic connection as well.
June 30th, 2008 at 4:09 pm
Despite my efforts to be impressed by Pawlenty, I’ve always found him yawn-inducing. We need a better communicator, someone who quickly makes a favorable impression. Someone like Huckabee, without actually BEING Huckabee.
June 30th, 2008 at 4:12 pm
Aron, I indirectly agree with one point of yours. Clinton as VP gives McCain many more options, but we know that will not happen.
June 30th, 2008 at 4:14 pm
After reading the CATO report on Pawlenty, he’s the last one I want.
In fact, I’m still waiting for Club for Growth and HotAir.com to rip him apart on his fiscal irresponsibility.
June 30th, 2008 at 4:20 pm
I find this analysis unimpressive in the extreme. As I’ve pointed out before, a good deal of VP analysis seems to center around the idea that we need someone gimmicky to bring excitement. Thus, the “and there’s nothing dramatic in his background (he’s spent his life in Minnesota politics). He’ll come across as another late-middle-aged politician with talking points.” This is some sort of veiled reference to the fact that Pawlenty is a white guy. But, Pawlenty’s background, if we ignore that really “dull” point, is really quite interesting. He’s the first person in his family to go to college (how many Presidents can say that?), practically all of his siblings work in blue-collar jobs. His dad was truck-driver. This isn’t, perhaps, Horatio Alger stuff, but it’s not far off. So it’s hard to understand what “dramatic” means in this context.
As far as Pawlenty’s ability to excite a convention well, I’d have to humbly disagree. Not for nothing am I a Pawlenty for VP supporter, despite never passing within 200 miles of Minnesota. Pawlenty excites me, a guy who grew up with a blue-collar mother (non-college graduate), and who’s father was the only person, on either side of our family, to ever graduate from college. He excites me, a guy who’s spent years trying to reconcile the everyday values I learned, with the intelligentsia I increasingly find myself in. And maybe this stuff doesn’t resonate with big-wigs at CNN or the Observer who won’t be satisfied until the Republican Party has nominated a Indian/Black/Mexican woman, or conservative political elites, who deal in dollars and sense and want folks who are going to serve up non-stop redmeat, but it’s powerful nonetheless. The majority of America is still middle America. That’s why the wonderful O hasn’t locked this thing up.
June 30th, 2008 at 4:28 pm
Matt,
So he excites you. We got it. Thanks.
-DJ
June 30th, 2008 at 4:33 pm
Pawlenty topped Romney’s “I like mandates” comment when he defended subsidies for the failed experiment called corn-based ethanol, arguing like an illogical third grader, “Every other fuel is subsidized, too.”
June 30th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
I do think that if Pawlenty doesn’t get the position, he’ll be shocked, possibly devastated. He’s already been to DC to raise his profile. His wife even chanted 45 at one event. That said, Mac needs a jolt in the arm for the fall. Matt’s wrong, excitement is a good thing. Just look at the dems: they got a fraud who’s being held up just on pure liberal titillation. Now, just think how some people will react if a good-looking, reform, female gov is on the GOP slate.
June 30th, 2008 at 4:44 pm
A woman’s looks actually undercuts her ability to be taken seriously. Palin has that naughty schoolteacher look that men love and I can just imagine all the internet spoofs of her. She’ll be treated like a grown-up Brittany Spears.
June 30th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
DJ Tablesauce,
Out of curiosity, who do you favor for VP? I understand the gripes serious fiscal conservatives have with Pawlenty. Because according to CATO’s own lights, there are just 6 Republican Governors better then Pawlenty fiscally: Matt Blunt, Mark Sanford, Mike Rounds, Jon Huntsman, and Sonny Purdue. Which one of those do you prefer? And does it strike you as curious that 5 of those 6 come from, how shall I put this, irreversibly red states, where fantastically conservative politics is no hindrance, and the other Governor (Blunt) actually isn’t running for re-election, because despite Governing a reasonably red state, his fiscal conservatism has made him a no-go for a second term? (As an aside, Mitt Romney, who’s conservative record also made him unpalatable in his blue state, is tied with Pawlenty). What are we to make of this?
June 30th, 2008 at 4:56 pm
I have only minimal objections to Palin at this point. But, I still contend that Pawlenty/Carcieri are the two best choices. They’ve governed surprisingly conservatively in deep blue states, and they’ve managed to turn this into an asset (as opposed to Romney, who was practically ran out on a rail after governing conservatively) or at least not a weakness. Anyone who fits this profile gets a big nod from me. I like John Engler and possibly even Tommy Thompson, if we’re prepared to resurrect old figures.
My preferred shortlist probably looks something like this:
1. Pawlenty
2. Carcieri
3. Palin
4. Engler
5. Romney
My “please God, no” list looks something like this:
1. Bloomberg
2. Crist
3. Lieberman
(It’s a pretty small list)
I could live with almost anyone else, but those are the only people I see making a material difference, one way or the other. If I’m wrong about Pawlenty, then I’m wrong. It’s happened before. I’m underwhelmed by the supposed Romney/Portman/Thune shortlist, but none of them are terrible, and I quite like Romney for obvious reasons.
June 30th, 2008 at 5:11 pm
While I haven’t been the biggest Pawlenty fan, this article strike me as overwrought?
So his appearance wasn’t memorable. Has anyone’s appearance on a Sunday show ever been memorable. I must have seen hundreds over the years and there wasn’t anyone who I was raving about the day after thinking “wow, this guy just blew me away”.
I don’t think any VP should be judged on their ability to give a lights out performance on some interview show.
After all, Al Gore did ok as VP and there’s nothing about him whatsoever that’s exciting, interesting, or memorable in the least. Same with Cheney.
As for the comment about Palin’s looks, perhaps. But I think if you go back and look, women considered attractive or appealing tend to win elections. If you were to do a study of attractive women who’ve run for office, I think you’d find they win the majority of the time. Not every time, of course, but I think it’s a net positive. Britney, after all, sold millions of albums and was a huge star for a few years.
I do agree with the article on the 3 times the VP will be able to make an impact.
And Bentsen transformed himself into a player? A player for what? His ticket lost Bentsen’s own state and yeah he ended up being named Treasury secretary but I doubt that had all that much to do with his VP run. If anything, the Bentsen/Quayle debate proves that the VP debate is way overrated and doesn’t really affect things all that much.
June 30th, 2008 at 5:13 pm
#18 Without knowing much about you I would say you are a northerner, younger than 50, and not very conservative. Your list ignores the south and west and does not contain a single hardline conservative.
June 30th, 2008 at 5:24 pm
Matt,
Uhhh… And you weren’t to hot about Fred? This is basically the same complaint that they had about him, and you listed the reasons a lot of us liked him. I’m actually on your side here, but I do find a little humor in the situation.
June 30th, 2008 at 5:45 pm
Tommy,
I warmed to Fred towards the end, and was lamenting that he’d flamed out as Super Tuesday approached, because I saw no hope for either McCain or Romney in the general election at that point.
Sue-Ellen,
Well, you got two out of three right, for sure. I’d leave it up to others to judge how conservative I am. But, I favor a constitutional amendment banning abortion (except to preserve the mother’s life), I’m opposed to gay marriage (though I admittedly don’t care much about the issue), I’m more or less a neo-con who finds McCain too moderate on foreign policy, and I generally follow the conservative line on economic issues (though, I’m far more likely to deviate from orthodoxy here). Call that what you will. I’ve excluded Southerners, because I believe regional appeal matters and I don’t believe McCain needs any additional appeal in the South, outside of Virginia and maybe North Carolina. There aren’t many interesting conservatives from the west, who make much sense;Hoeven is running for re-election. Kyl, one of my favorite politicians, is excluded by dint of sharing McCain’s homestate. Bill Owens is getting divorced. Who else? And I’ve excluded “hard-line conservatives”, because I think McCain needs to find a way to remain the Maverick, and a high-profile purely base-pleasing move fails miserably here.
June 30th, 2008 at 6:40 pm
I do love being right.
Seriously, I only questioned your conservatism because 1,2 and 5 are not what I call conservatives (I don’t know enough about 4). I don’t care how they spin their records or try to excuse their gov’t spending.
Rearding the south and west, Huntsman and Barbour are two governors who deserve consideration because they are conservative and considered competent. This is about governing after all.
June 30th, 2008 at 7:17 pm
But I think if you go back and look, women considered attractive or appealing tend to win elections.
I don’t know about that. Arizona’s governor could be Jon Lovitz’s brother…and Christie Whitman, New Jersey’s ex-gov, looks like a cross between Tom Petty and Dana Carvey.
June 30th, 2008 at 7:30 pm
One intriguing fact about Gov. Pawlenty that might be potentially appealing to Evangelicals is that he converted from Catholicism to Protestantism. The fact that he left his native faith tradition in favor of Baptist church could be a beneficial testament to some Evangelicals and also gives him a similar faith narrative to McCain.
June 30th, 2008 at 7:47 pm
I hate the religion threads here, but why do you spin Pawlenty’s conversion entirely as a positive? Isn’t there likely to be an offended Catholic to offset each evangelical?
June 30th, 2008 at 8:39 pm
BobH,
You make a good point but recent history suggests that a Catholic to Protestant conversion could be more beneficial in terms of appealing to the base than say a Protestant to Catholic conversion. Take for instance this past year’s Primary, there is some evidence that suggests that Sam Brownback’s conversion from Evangelicalism to Catholicism hurt him whereas McCain’s conversion from Episcopal to Baptist may have given him a slight boost among Evangelical support.
June 30th, 2008 at 8:53 pm
#27 - there may be some truth in that. Could it be that because of the scandals within the Catholic church regarding the priests and bishops, the Catholics are more forgiving of someone who begins to looks somewhere else for their spiritual life? It could be that many of them have entertained the idea themselves, and will not hold it against someone who has actually made the move. I’m not saying this is true, but just throwing it out as a possibility.
June 30th, 2008 at 9:22 pm
I am sympathetic to conversions from catholicism, which I view as heretical (and I was baptized catholic).
June 30th, 2008 at 9:34 pm
> “some evidence that suggests that Sam Brownback’s conversion from Evangelicalism to Catholicism hurt him whereas McCain’s conversion from Episcopal to Baptist may have given him a slight boost among Evangelical support.”
Do you have a link to this evidence?
June 30th, 2008 at 10:01 pm
No hard stats BobH. Just anecdotal evidence and soft data. But one thing cannot be disputed - Catholic candidates, for whatever reason, faired very poorly in the primary.
July 1st, 2008 at 9:00 am
Matt,
Currently, I’m a Palin fan. Considering the way CATO ripped Pawlenty a new one, I’d like to see the data you say they provide.