Bill Press is, as usual, the smartest guy in the room:

Of all the famous celebrities they could have compared Obama to, why not Tom Cruise? Or Arnold Schwarzenegger, or Donald Trump, or Oprah Winfrey? Why Britney Spears and Paris Hilton? Why two white blond bimbos?

Only one reason. It’s a somewhat tamer version of the white bimbo ad used so successfully against Harold Ford in Tennessee. In juxtaposing Barack Obama with Britney Spears and Paris Hilton, the McCain campaign is simply trying to plant the old racist seed of black man hitting on young white woman. Not directly, but subliminally and disgracefully.

Why Britney Spears and not those four? Um, let’s see, because the point of the advertisement is that Barack Obama’s candidacy is vacuous — and, given that Arnold Schwarzenegger is the governor of a state, Oprah Winfrey is one of the most respected women in the country, and Donald Trump is a highly successful businessman, it wouldn’t make sense to use them as analogies? Even Tom Cruise, beneath his batty Scientologist beliefs, is a respected actor.

Bill Press is clearly a racist for comparing Oprah Winfrey to Paris Hilton.

The New York Times editorial board has gotta be kidding me:

[T]here was something surreal, and offensive, about today’s soundbite from the campaign of Senator John McCain.

The presumptive Republican nominee has embarked on a bare-knuckled barrage of negative advertising aimed at belittling Mr. Obama. The most recent ad compares the presumptive Democratic nominee for president to Britney Spears and Paris Hilton — suggesting to voters that he’s nothing more than a bubble-headed, publicity-seeking celebrity.

The ad gave us an uneasy feeling that the McCain campaign was starting up…[a] racially tinged attack on Mr. Obama…

I have no words.

So just to recap, we have assessed three theories of re-alignment. The first theory, the so-called “landslide theory” of re-alignments, posits that re-alignments can be judged by their size. The problem with this theory is that many elections considered “re-aligning” are not landslides, and many elections that are landslides are not realignments.

The second theory posits that a sufficiently charismatic politician can remake a country’s politics, such as Ronald Reagan did in the 80s. The problem with this is that Reagan did not remake our country’s politics; they were already fundamentally conservative. He simply brought those conservative voters further into the GOP fold, a process that had been under way for the better part of a century.

The third theory was that candidates such as Obama and McCain could potentially re-make the electoral map, with their unique appeals, opening up a slew of swing states. The problem with this argument is that July/August polling is not particularly predictive of what happens in November, and that the current electoral map, adjusted for Obama’s overall lead in the polls, is really an exaggerated version of what we saw in 2004. (more…)

Comparing Barry to Dick Cheney? Ouch!

Barack Obama has long been his party’s presumptive nominee. Now he’s becoming its presumptuous nominee.

Fresh from his presidential-style world tour, during which foreign leaders and American generals lined up to show him affection, Obama settled down to some presidential-style business in Washington yesterday. He ordered up a teleconference with the (current president’s) Treasury secretary, granted an audience to the Pakistani prime minister and had his staff arrange for the chairman of the Federal Reserve to give him a briefing. Then, he went up to Capitol Hill to be adored by House Democrats in a presidential-style pep rally.

Along the way, he traveled in a bubble more insulating than the actual president’s. Traffic was shut down for him as he zoomed about town in a long, presidential-style motorcade, while the public and most of the press were kept in the dark about his activities, which included a fundraiser at the Mayflower where donors paid $10,000 or more to have photos taken with him. His schedule for the day, announced Monday night, would have made Dick Cheney envious:

11:00 a.m.: En route TBA.

12:05 p.m.: En route TBA.

1:45 p.m.: En route TBA.

2:55 p.m.: En route TBA.

5:20 p.m.: En route TBA.

The 5:20 TBA turned out to be his adoration session with lawmakers in the Cannon Caucus Room, where even committee chairmen arrived early, as if for the State of the Union. Capitol Police cleared the halls — just as they do for the actual president. The Secret Service hustled him in through a side door — just as they do for the actual president.

Inside, according to a witness, he told the House members, “This is the moment . . . that the world is waiting for,” adding: “I have become a symbol of the possibility of America returning to our best traditions.”

As he marches toward Inauguration Day (Election Day is but a milestone on that path), Obama’s biggest challenger may not be Republican John McCain but rather his own hubris.

Some say the supremely confident Obama — nearly 100 days from the election, he pronounces that “the odds of us winning are very good” — has become a president-in-waiting. But in truth, he doesn’t need to wait: He has already amassed the trappings of the office, without those pesky decisions.

Read the rest here.

Had I smelled teen spirit before I heard Rush Limbaugh, I may never have seen the conservative light.

Rock died for me after Ozzy left Black Sabbath in 1979 and wasn’t resurrected until late 1991, as Grunge, with the release of Nirvana’s Nevermind album, and its signature song, “Smells Like Teen Spirit.”

But I didn’t know the song’s name until a few years later because I first heard The Rush Limbaugh Program in early 1991.

I had tasted the death of my liberal utopian dreams in 1988 with the defeat (more the nomination) of Michael Dukakis while I served as a South Carolina county Democratic Party chair. I got an exponentially more bitter taste of reality with the miscarriage death of my child and subsequent divorce in 1990.

Then I heard Rush! (The talk show host, not the rock band.)

I had always listened to radio, AM and FM, much as I had always been a Democrat. I remember loving Barry Farber late at night in the mid to late 70s, not realizing he was conservative or even knowing what a conservative was. And liked Larry King late nights after that. The Fairness Doctrine ended the Farber education before I was able receive it, while CNN make Larry famous.

Yes, I loved Buckley’s Firing Line and Buchanan on Crossfire. But it was when I discovered Rush that I was on the path to the 2000 epiphany thanks to a weekly, 15 hour private education in the Limbaugh Institute of Advanced Conservative Studies.

At first, I was just thrilled to hear political debate. I disagreed with him on most things at first, but agreed on some significant ones, like feminism run amok, that never got aired on regular TV. I would see the “Rush is Right” bumper stickers and wince, but over time, I disagreed with him on less and less.

I spoke with Rush twice, on air, in the 90s trying to convince him that Bill Clinton was a moderate-conservative based on welfare reform and Nafta. Rush was nice to me, but he buried my arguments by pointing out the influence of Newt’s takeover of Congress. Moreover, I’ll never forget the day that began my loss of respect for Clinton’s character. That was the day that he insinuated that Rush was partially responsible for inspiring Timothy McVeigh in the the Oklahoma City bombing.

I also met Bo Snerdly, (Rush’s career long “program observer” who is “certified black enough to criticize” and Official Barack Obama Criticizer) at an event at the local AM station, but one main significant thing I came to respect about Rush, and the then local Rush clone, Mike Gallagher, before meeting Snerdly was that they were not racist and treated Blacks as equals. It made me start to see how my party was the one that based things on race. I always thought racism allegations against Rush and many republicans by Dems was unfair.

But I think the key contribution Rush made to my conversion was the contrast between his presentations of the news of the day with that of the major TV and radio networks. I would watch events on C-Span and then notice that the “Drive-by media” would leave out or mischaracterize portions of the event that I deemed significant, and I was a liberal (at least on many issues) Democrat then. Then I would notice that Rush left out nothing significant, to either the left or the right, and that he would play verbatim sound bites in context.

He was not only not afraid of the arguments of the left; he relished having the left reveal itself and then tear their arguments apart in the “arena of ideas.”

Life went on from trial law to corporate law, SC to GA, GA to NC. Family members moved away and passed away. Rush Limbaugh remained a constant source of fun and wisdom.

Rush, like me, is a work in progress, but I was very impressed with the way Rush dealt with the loss of his hearing and subsequent addiction to pain killers. He kept his good humor and never whined about the drug problem and he faced the hearing loss with courage.

As a liberal Democrat, I see now that I was the elitist Rush identified and that much of my politics was to make me feel good.

But I always shared Rush’s optimism about America and love of America.

I came to see over time that Rush’s hero was my hero. Reagan fixed the economy with supply side conservative principles, defeated the USSR with peace thru strength and advanced the Judeo-Christian values I believed in.

I came to see that we can not make Heaven on Earth like liberals imagine and that after 5000 years America stands tall as a Shining City on a Hill compared to all the others.

Rush attacks no one. He just sits around minding his own business when liberals attack the principles and institutions that made this country great.

When I moved to Atlanta in 2001 and discovered the internet, I immediately joined Rush 24/7, and over the past 17 of his nearly 20 years on national radio, I have missed few days without the words of Rush in my ears.

The most frequent thought I have upon hearing his words are:

Rush is Right!

____________________________________________________________________________________________

Mike DeVine’s Charlotte Observer columns
Legal Editor for The Minority and HinzSight Reports
“The way to stop discrimination on the basis of race is to stop discriminating on the basis of race.” - The Chief Justice
Race 4 2008
“One man with courage makes a majority.” - Andrew Jackson

Pew Research General Election

• Barack Obama 47% (48%)
• John McCain 42% (40%)

Survey of 1,241 registered voters was conducted July 23-27. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted June 18-29 are in parentheses.

Rasmussen Texas General Election

• John McCain 50% (48%)
• Barack Obama 41% (39%)

With Leaners

• John McCain 52%
• Barack Obama 44%

Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)

• John McCain 60% / 37% (+23%)
• Barack Obama 46% / 51% (-5%)

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted July 30. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted June 25 are in parentheses.

Rasmussen Kentucky General Election

• John McCain 49% (51%)
• Barack Obama 39% (35%)

Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)

• John McCain 60% / 35% (+25%)
• Barack Obama 48% / 50% (-2%)

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted July 29. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted June 25 are in parentheses.

Rasmussen Montana General Election

• John McCain 45% (43%)
• Barack Obama 44% (48%)

With Leaners

• John McCain 47%
• Barack Obama 47%

Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)

• John McCain 59% / 40% (+19%)
• Barack Obama 53% / 46% (+7%)

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted July 29. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 1 are in parentheses.

Republican Vice Presidential Nomination

• Mitt Romney 30.0
• Tim Pawlenty 30.0
• Sarah Palin 19.9
• Tom Ridge 15.0
• Charlie Crist 13.0

Democratic Vice Presidential Nomination

• Tim Kaine 30.0
• Evan Bayh 25.0
• Kathleen Sebelius 20.0
• Joe Biden 14.9
• Dick Gephardt 10.0

Obama has dropped below 60 for the first time in nearly two months. McCain’s contract has been skyrocketing for the past 24 hours and looks poised to top 40 by tomorrow.

What is the matter with this guy?

“Nobody thinks that Bush and McCain have a real answer to the challenges we face. So what they’re going to try to do is make you scared of me,” Obama said. “You know, he’s not patriotic enough, he’s got a funny name, you know, he doesn’t look like all those other presidents on the dollar bills.”

He clearly wants to be attacked for his race, and he’s sick of waiting for it to happen, dammit. It’s a lot easier than responding to charges of inexperience, flip-flopping (accusations of which are coming from both the left and right), and naivety. He’s so wrapped up in his own caricatures of the Republican Party that he can’t bring himself to truly believe that he wouldn’t be attacked for his race — I mean, given that the Republican Party is stacked from top to bottom with racists and all. (To paraphrase Ann Coulter, here’s a little ‘inside scoop’ about white people: we’re not thinking about your race, buddy. We’ve got better things to do than to think about your skin color all day long.)

An Obama spokesman denied that the comment was related to race. But as someone in the Politico comment section noted: what was he referring to, then? Powdered wigs?

Holy crap. Obama has gone from a 9% lead to a mere 1% lead in less than a week. Given that Obama was up 4 yesterday, this means that McCain must’ve been up at least 2 points in the overnight numbers. I can’t believe how fast his bounce faded.

Gallup Daily General Election Tracking (7/31)

• Barack Obama 45% (46%)
• John McCain 44% (42%)

For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.

The general-election results are based on combined data from July 28-30, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,679 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.

Quinnipiac Pennsylvania General Election

• Barack Obama 49% (52%)
• John McCain 42% (40%)

Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)

• Barack Obama 54% / 27% (+27%)
• John McCain 54% / 28% (+26%)

Survey of 1,317 likely voters was conducted July 23-29. The margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted June 9-16 are in parentheses.

Quinnipiac Ohio General Election

• Barack Obama 46% (48%)
• John McCain 44% (42%)

Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)

• John McCain 52% / 32% (+20%)
• Barack Obama 50% / 34% (+16%)

Survey of 1,229 likely voters was conducted July 23-29. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted June 9-16 are in parentheses.

After a temporary dip into the high 20’s late last evening, Mitt is back on top. Charlie Crist has also climbed back into fifth place.

Republican Vice Presidential Nomination

• Mitt Romney 38.5
• Tim Pawlenty 30.0
• Sarah Palin 19.9
• Tom Ridge 15.0
• Charlie Crist 13.0

Democratic Vice Presidential Nomination

• Tim Kaine 35.3
• Evan Bayh 24.5
• Kathleen Sebelius 20.0
• Joe Biden 14.9
• Dick Gephardt 10.0

Quinnipiac Florida General Election

• Barack Obama 46% (47%)
• John McCain 44% (43%)

Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)

• John McCain 51% / 30% (+21%)
• Barack Obama 50% / 33% (+17%)

Survey of 1,248 likely voters was conducted July 23-29. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted June 9-16 are in parentheses.

Rasmussen Daily General Election Tracking (7/31)

• Barack Obama 45%
• John McCain 43%

With Leaners

• Barack Obama 48%
• John McCain 46%

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters–is +/- 2 percentage points.

Jay Cost thinks Mac should pick Mitt. He says “it’s not even a close call”.

I’d quote directly from the article, but it’s reasonably long, and I think Cost’s main points can be summed up fairly easily.

1. McCain is viewed as an acceptable Republican and Obama is viewed as particularly risky.

2. McCain needs to find a way to highlight this, without diminishing his own brand.

3. Right now McCain and his camp are doing a terrible job and McCain in particular is simply not an effective attack dog.

4. Romney went on the attack repeatedly in the primaries, and though these attacks predictably damaged his own brand, they were remarkably effective at damaging his opponents.

5. If Romney is added to the ticket, he can land punches on Obama in an extremely effective manner, without harming McCain’s brand.

Read the whole thing.

This rumor is courtesy of ABC News’ Jan Crawford Greenburg:

McCain’s tough new “celebrity” ad campaign, designed to portray Obama as an empty suit who — like Paris Hilton — is devoid of substance, is the first part of a broader strategy that ultimately could have ramifications for McCain’s VP selection.

The campaign will continue to hit hard that Obama is not an agent of change — but a man who merely plays to his audience and is unwilling to risk losing his adoring crowds by making the tough decisions. This is only the first volley, sources close to McCain tell ABC News.

There’s a bigger point — and this initial volley, they say, lays the groundwork for it. They will be sharpening McCain’s message that he, not Obama, is the true change agent, a man who’s repeatedly taken unpopular stands, made the hard calls and forged bipartisan alliances.

Part of the calculus now is how his VP choice will further sharpen that message. There is significant support among top McCain advisers that he make a “transformative” pick who would change the Republican Party — someone who would appeal to moderate Republicans and Democrats.

This pick would be someone who, like McCain, has taken the unpopular stands, made the hard calls and stood firm on principle.

A person who fills that bill, these advisers say, is Joe Lieberman.

Lieberman, an Independent Democrat, flatly denied his interest to ABC’s Ron Claiborne earlier this month, but McCain is now seriously considering him as that “transformative” pick, sources tell ABC News.

McCain is close to Lieberman, admires his willingness to stand alone on principle and shares his views that Islamo-fascism is the most serious threat to the nation’s future.

What’s more, some McCain advisers believe Lieberman would dramatically enhance the point they are now trying to make about Obama in this “celebrity” ad campaign.

McCain and Lieberman are anti-celebrities, the argument goes. They have, as one top adviser said, felt the heat after taking unpopular positions because they were willing to do “what’s right for the country” — whatever it meant for their own popularity.

McCain has not decided which route to take. The transformative pick would anger a slice of the base, and he could decide, at the end of the day, to pick the conventional conservative.

That would be Mitt Romney, Minn. Gov. Tim Pawlenty or former Ohio Rep. Rob Portman, sources tell ABC News.

Despite my many differences with Sen. Lieberman on the issues (and there are many), he will always have my respect and admiration for risking everything that he spent his life attaining by refusing to give in to the demands of the nutroots and join the chorus of surrender to al-Qaeda on Iraq.

That reason alone is enough for me personally to support the ticket. I would urge anyone who cares about our soldier’s sacrifice of the past 5 years do the same.

Finally, here is tonight’s Intrade Veep update:

Republican Vice Presidential Nomination

• Mitt Romney 38.5
• Tim Pawlenty 30.0
• Tom Ridge 25.0
• Sarah Palin 19.9
• John Thune 10.0 (tie)
• Rob Portman 10.0 (tie)

Democratic Vice Presidential Nomination

• Tim Kaine 38.9
• Evan Bayh 24.5
• Kathleen Sebelius 20.0
• Joe Biden 13.9
• Dick Gephardt 8.5

CNN/Opinion Research General Election

• Barack Obama 51% (50%)
• John McCain 44% (45%)

Survey of 914 registered voters was conducted July 27-29. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted June 26-29 are in parentheses.

Rasmussen Mississippi General Election

• John McCain 52% (50%)
• Barack Obama 41% (44%)

With Leaners

• John McCain 54%
• Barack Obama 42%

Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)

• John McCain 64% / 30% (+34%)
• Barack Obama 47% / 51% (-4%)

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted July 28. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted June 24 are in parentheses.

Rasmussen Nebraska General Election

• John McCain 50% (52%)
• Barack Obama 32% (36%)

With Leaners

• John McCain 55%
• Barack Obama 36%

Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)

• John McCain 71% / 28% (+43%)
• Barack Obama 45% / 54% (-9%)

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted July 28. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted June 23 are in parentheses.

PPP (D) Michigan General Election

• Barack Obama 46% (48%)
• John McCain 43% (39%)

Survey of 883 likely voters was conducted July 23-27. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted June 21-22 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Most of the movement in the last month has been among white voters and Republicans. In June PPP showed Obama earning 19% of the GOP vote but that is now down to 9%. McCain has a turned a small disadvantage with white voters into a 50-40 lead. The race in Michigan could come down to who earns the votes of independents. While only 8% of Democrats and 4% of Republicans are undecided, 20% of those who don’t identify with either party are.

Republican Vice Presidential Nomination

• Mitt Romney 38.5
• Tim Pawlenty 30.0
• Tom Ridge 15.0
• Sarah Palin 13.1
• Charlie Crist 13.0

Democratic Vice Presidential Nomination

• Tim Kaine 40.0
• Evan Bayh 20.0
• Kathleen Sebelius 20.0
• Joe Biden 12.2
• Dick Gephardt 8.5

BTW… The Obama to in November contract has dropped about 5 points in the past 18 hours and is in danger of falling below 60.0 for the first time since May.

Gallup Daily General Election Tracking (7/30)

• Barack Obama 46%
• John McCain 42%

Survey of 2,682 registered voters was conducted July 27-29. The margin of error is ±2 percentage points.

And so it continues. Yesterday, according to the Washington Post,

In his closed door meeting with House Democrats this evening, presumptive Democratic nominee Barack Obama delivered a real zinger. According to a witness, he was waxing lyrical about last week’s trip to Europe, when he concluded, “this is the moment, as Nancy [Pelosi] noted, that the world is waiting for.”

The 200,000 souls who thronged to his speech in Berlin came not just for him, he told the enthralled audience of congressional representatives.

“I have become a symbol of the possibility of America returning to our best traditions,” he said.

Jonathan Martin notes in the comments to another post: “My God, he is losing it. How can such a man govern? How could he possibly deal with the other branches of government if he were elected?”

I’m glad you asked that Jonathan.

A couple months ago, LightBringer told a joke.  It was admittedly a little joke, but often little jokes can shed tremendous light on how a candidate views things. Presented with a walking stick as a gift, Obama’s response, of all things, was “if members of Congress don’t pass my health care bill, I’m ready, I’ll whup ‘em.”

You could almost hear the collective “oh really?” coming out of Jack Murtha’s, Robert Byrd’s and John Dingells’ mouths. You see, these men are pretty important men, and they’ve been in Congress for a long, long time.  Dingell and Byrd have been in Congress since before Obama was born.  I reckon that they will be even less impressed with the new kid telling them what kind of bills to pass as the relatively junior Van Hollen and Schumer were with him announcing that the party would abandon lobbying money (remember that little adventure?).

There are a million other data points, but after a brief honeymoon, this is what I expect The Artist Formerly Known As Obama’s Presidency to devolve into: A very liberal President who is self-assured of his ability to change the way things work in Washington, feuding with a very entrenched Washington bureaucracy that wants nothing to do with it. This is the real fruit of Obama’s lack of executive and/or Washington experience — a dearth of understanding as to how to really get things done.

Throw in the fact that he’ll have a house caucus with about 70 members in districts carried by George W. Bush, and (not coincidentally) 33 members with lifetime ACU scores above 30*, and 54 above 20, and we’re looking at a good 2010. Either Obama will get what he wants done, in which case those 54 members will be running for re-election with decidedly more liberal voting records in districts that are still pretty conservative, or he won’t. In which case, well, pass the popcorn.

Anyway, that’s how he plans on dealing with the other branches of government and why, even completely setting policy aside, I suspect that this will be a disastrous Presidency.

*This is actually pretty significant, given the skew of ACU scores. By contrast, only 37 Republicans have lifetime ACUs below 80, and only 17 fall below 70.

Republican Vice Presidential Nomination

• Mitt Romney 30.0
• Tim Pawlenty 30.0
• Tom Ridge 15.0
• Sarah Palin 13.1
• Charlie Crist 13.0

Democratic Vice Presidential Nomination

• Tim Kaine 36.6
• Evan Bayh 25.1
• Kathleen Sebelius 15.0
• Joe Biden 12.4
• Dick Gephardt 8.5

Rasmussen Daily General Election Tracking (7/30)

• Barack Obama 45%
• John McCain 43%

With Leaners

• Barack Obama 48%
• John McCain 46%

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters–is +/- 2 percentage points.

Inside the numbers:

Both Obama and McCain are viewed favorably by 55% of voters.

When given a choice between Barack Obama and John McCain for President, 14% of voters are uncommitted. That figure includes 6% who say they’d vote for some other candidate and 8% who are undecided. In the race for the White House, there are nearly twice as many uncommitted voters as there were four years ago in late July. While much has been made of John McCain’s struggles with his party’s conservative base, 33% of the uncommitted voters are Democrats while only 19% are Republicans. Forty-eight percent (48%) are not affiliated with either major political party.

It’s worth noting that there are far more uncommitted voters at this point in Election 2008 than there were four years ago. The Election 2004 Presidential Tracking Poll showed that 92% of voters were committed to either President Bush or Senator Kerry on July 24, 2004. Only 8% were uncommitted.

This year, 37% of the uncommitted voters plan to vote for a Democratic Congressional candidate while 22% say they’ll vote for the GOP. But, when asked which way they’re leaning in the race for the White House, 26% say McCain and 19% say Obama. Twenty percent (20%) say they still prefer a third-party candidate.

Uncommitted Republicans are far more likely to lean towards McCain than uncommitted Democrats are to lean towards Obama.

This analysis is based upon polling data collected during the two weeks ending July 24. For the overall sample, Obama had 44% to 42% advantage. With leaners, the results were Obama 47% to 45%.

I tended to agree with the conventional wisdom,”Kaine’s a terrible pick” last night.  But, I’ve had a night to mull the issue and here’s the thing; Barack Obama is not going to win the Commander in Chief vote, even if he picks Admiral Fallon himself.  There was a poll the other day that had McCain up something like 72-25 on the “who’s the best commander in chief” question.  He lost on this question by a smaller, albeit hefty, margin in the primaries as well.  But, curiously, it doesn’t seem to matter to a majority of voters.  They admit that McCain would make a better commander in chief, but prefer Obama nonetheless.  I suspect, if Kaine is the guy, that the Obama camp believes that they can win, even while losing the commander in chief question, as long as voters feel that Obama wouldn’t be a complete disaster in this regard.  His relative success abroad last week probably went a ways to reassuring them about Obama’s ability to seem mostly serious.

Under this assumption, Kaine begins to make alot more sense.  He’s a youngish, Catholic Governor with a business background and roots in three swing states (Missouri, Minnesota, and obviously Virginia).  If Obama can afford Kaine, he might be a pretty good buy.  And based on past history, Obama no doubt thinks he can afford another neophyte.  It’s a strange and dangerous calculation, but I’m not sure it’s wrong.  With Iraq calming down, foreign policy has already receded in importance; taking a back stage to the economy and energy.  And historically, in situations where foreign policy has receded in immediate importance, this sort of calculation has proven to be reasonable.  After all, it seems quite likely that Bush was seen as the better commander in chief, in 92′, by large margins, but still faltered.  There are at least two problems with this analysis.  First, it is not 1992.  Americans are upset about our involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan, and perhaps they sense that both conflicts are winding down, but they’re not nearly so cavalier as to think we can take another holiday from history.

9/11 changed things, and I think Obama is betting an awful lot on the proposition that as Iraq fades in importance, any concern about foreign threats fades along with it.  Secondly, it is not 1992, and there’s every chance something will happen in the next 3 months to remind voters how dangerous this world really is (a Tet Offensive of sorts, perhaps developments on the Iranian front).  If Obama gets caught with Tim Kaine, and something like this occurs, it will be an unmitigated disaster.