The Candidates
From Marc Ambinder:
Republicans close to the McCain campaign say that veepstakes supervisor A.B. Culvahouse has begun to vet between eight and ten candidates, including Gov. Tim Pawlenty of MN and Ex-Gov. Mitt Romney of MA.
So who are the other 6 to 8 candidates who round out the pack? If I had to guess, I would say that Tom Ridge, Joe Lieberman, Charlie Crist, Sarah Palin, Bobby Jindal, Rob Portman, Eric Cantor, and John Thune are all on the list.
If that is our shortlist, I suspect that Ridge, Lieberman, Crist, Jindal, and Portman will all fail to make the final cut. Absent some hard evidence that Ridge would deliver Pennsylvania or that Lieberman would deliver Democratic votes (we’ve yet to see evidence for either this year), the exodus of pro-lifers that the selection of either would cause probably nixes both. Portman is a solid, safe choice, and I like the guy, but let’s face it, McCain won’t go anywhere near a potential running mate with the imprimatur of George W. Bush in this environment. Especially when there are other solid, safe choices on the shortlist. Meanwhile, Jindal seems to be stumbling out of the gate in Louisiana and has a long way to go before he’s ready for prime time. If McCain wants a young, fresh, conservative governor, he’ll pick Palin, who has governed her state longer and with fewer gaffes. And Crist may be getting married, but is still being dogged by rumors that he’s gay, and the last thing McCain wants is an October surprise because of his veep pick.
So that leaves Romney, Pawlenty, Palin, Thune, and Cantor. Of those, Thune is the “they all suck” pick — he’s the guy McCain goes to if everyone else turns out to be a net drag on the ticket. The others are really calculated risks. If McCain wants money, the Mormon vote, the Mountain West, and possibly Michigan, he’ll pick Romney. Romney actually won the blue parts of Michigan once already this year, during the GOP primary in the state, when educated, middle class suburban voters in the Wolverine State picked Romney over McCain. Of course, Romney ran in Michigan as his father’s son, not as the new and improved George W. Bush. If Romney wants to join the ticket as a good-government Northern Republican, and not as a culture warrior, he may actually be a net positive on the ticket. Otherwise, he could turn off independents everywhere.
If McCain wants to focus on Wisconsin and working class whites, he’ll pick Pawlenty. I say Wisconsin and not Minnesota because I don’t see any universe in which an exciting liberal Democrat gets defeated in Minnesota in this environment. Pawlenty could help in Wisconsin and Iowa in a close race though, and would help with working class white voters across the board. But is T-Paw truly ready for a national campaign?
If McCain wants to focus on conservatives and the “chick vote,” he’ll select Palin. The Alaska governor checks all the boxes for the base while packaging her conservatism in a soccer mom image. With lots of disenchanted women lacking a female candidate thanks to Obama, McCain could do worse than Sarah Palin.
Finally, if McCain wants to go for a true dark horse, he’ll pick Cantor, who defies my skills with alliteration just as soundly as he defies packaging. A devoutly Jewish Republican who wins strong victories among blue collar whites in a Southern state, Cantor is a fundraising powerhouse who is solidly conservative and could lure Jewish Obama skeptics with his strong support for Israel. Cantor would be a good compromise pick if McCain just can’t settle on any of the others. He brings Palin’s conservatism to the ticket, along with Romney’s fundraising abilities and Pawlenty’s record of winning regular folks in Middle America. He also comes from a high-population area of Virginia that McCain can actually win: the light-red Richmond suburbs. Cantor may be the choice that nobody’s expecting.
At the end of the day, though, only McCain can win this race for McCain. The veep watch is fun, but this is McCain’s race to run, and to win.
July 7th, 2008 at 8:32 pm
He cant win Minn anyway. Romney helps some in both Michigan and Colorado. If McCain could take Michigan and Ohio he wins as he will win Florida. Romney is the best choice imo no matter what MSNBC and them say…
July 7th, 2008 at 8:34 pm
This can’t be true…Iv’e heard from people on this site that Romney WILL NOT BE CHOSEN and they have a better insiders perspective than Marc Ambinder. I mean, who does he think he is?
July 7th, 2008 at 8:35 pm
Is it me or does it seem that the VP process should be much farther along then THIS ?
July 7th, 2008 at 8:36 pm
***Sarcasm***
July 7th, 2008 at 8:55 pm
I am shocked! Another Veep thread! Argh! Shoot me now!
July 7th, 2008 at 9:01 pm
#4, you are correct. McCain is much closer then what we are being told!
July 7th, 2008 at 9:02 pm
If McCain is going to pick someone from Congress its going to be Graham. It insults McCain’s intelligence to suggest Cantor.
Iinteresting that both the names dropped were already speculated whereas another name would have earned a bit more excitement.
July 7th, 2008 at 9:03 pm
Axel, it does sound like Marc isn’t going on a lot of information. Everyone mentions Pawlenty & Romney. If he’d added Huntsman or Palin it would have been more interesting…
July 7th, 2008 at 9:12 pm
I wonder if Romney & Pawlenty are stalking horses, as they are the only names that seem to come out all the time. Maybe they are there to distract attention from other picks?
That would be smart. Tell the inner circle to only ever leak the following two names, to put off the swirling news stories that keep coming out…
July 7th, 2008 at 9:13 pm
DaveG,
Where do you get the idea that Cantor is a fundraising powerhouse? In relation to other congressman? In relation to the entire universe of GOP politicians? The former I can believe. The latter seems implausible. Any Governor of a mid-size state ought to have more fundraising prowess then even the most adept congressman.
July 7th, 2008 at 9:15 pm
PLEASE don’t tell me mccain is just starting to think about VP!
July 7th, 2008 at 9:16 pm
I hope its not a strategy to drop names because it can backfire. If the few people here are any indication those who like Romney are passionate and if he is not picked after being mentioned so prominently there is bound to be a letdown. Worse, there will be those who want to speculate why. I say squelch rumors and get on with making the pick.
July 7th, 2008 at 9:18 pm
#9, that is what Peggy Noonan says is going on. This is also a way to let candidates down easily.
and…..since The Atlantic is bashing McCain’s good friend Charlie Crist (calling him a closet Homosexual), why would the McCain campaign be helping Ambinder?
July 7th, 2008 at 9:20 pm
Cantor raised more money in the 2004 election cycle for his colleagues than any other House Republican. I seem to remember reading that he has been pushing hard for McCain among Jewish donors who wanted Hillary.
July 7th, 2008 at 9:23 pm
#13: Who does Peggy think will be picked?
July 7th, 2008 at 9:28 pm
She did not say, but she is familiar with Reagan’s VP process (re: let Ford down easy) and is friends with Culvahouse.
July 7th, 2008 at 9:29 pm
There’s 2 arguments in every pro-Romney article I read with which I disagree.
1. The “Romney delivers the Mountain West” argument: I in live in CO and have my entire life so I think I can speak on this issue with some authority. Romney will excite Mormons but that is a group which votes predominately GOP anyway. There aren’t enough LDS voters in the mountain west to flip a state. Moreover, given the Libertarian streak that runs deep throughout the mountain states Romney’s recent conversion to an ardent social conservative runs the risk of turning off many swing voters in those states. I’m not saying Romney will hurt McCain’s chances in the west but I have a very hard time seeing him make an electorally-significant impact to the positive.
2. The “Romney can raise money like none other” argument: McCain is probably going to accept public financing for the general, so Romney’s money would be good for what, July and August? That’s no reason to pick a VP because he can help you raise a few million bucks here and there that you can use at a time when most of the voting public is listening with 1 ear, if that.
July 7th, 2008 at 9:31 pm
so will this delay his announcement even more?
July 7th, 2008 at 9:35 pm
Dan the way mccain going with this dragged out vp search he probably won’t even have a vp by july sad to say! I thought he would announce around 4th july or latest by today.
July 7th, 2008 at 9:38 pm
McCain cannot pick any earlier than August 7th.
July 7th, 2008 at 9:39 pm
#17: If Romney runs as a culture warrior, not only will he be a net negative in your state, he’ll be a net negative in my native Michigan as well, where he beat McCain by running as a “business of America is business” Republican earlier this year.
The fact that Romney “turned off” the culture warrior schtick once he lost Iowa and had to run in NH and MI tells me that he may be willing and able to drop the schtick altogether now that it’s apparent that a competent, communicative version of GWB was not what voters wanted this year.
If he starts talking about things that no one really cares about this year, like the Marriage Amendment, and tops it off with another pic embracing Ann Coulter, well, let’s just say the over/under for an Obama victory at that point would be 300 EVs.
Ironically, I’d be more comfortable with a McCain/Romney ticket if I found out that Romney really WAS faking when he converted to a so-con. At least that means he’ll be willing to drop the schtick as quickly as he picked it up.
July 7th, 2008 at 9:41 pm
why can’t mccain pick any earlier then august 7th kristofer?
July 7th, 2008 at 9:44 pm
Dan,
The first argument there should read that “Romney helps in the Mountain West” and I think that he certainly does, but certainly not to the extent to guarantee a win in CO. Romney helps out more in Nevada than Colorado.
I also live in Colorado. I’ve been here for the past 10 years. That libertarianism you speak of is indeed here & strong in this state. I witnessed it as my Democrat co-workers donated to Paul’s candidacy. They all loved Paul. However, most of them could not vote in our caucus since they needed to be registered Republicans well before our caucus date. Colorado is taking a hard turn to the left and I don’t think Romney or any other VP candidate can stop that.
But to your #2, just tell me the name of the 527 and I’ll write a check. I do not have to donate to McCain / Romney for president directly, just give me the name of the PAC or 527 and I will cut a check. At this point, I’m still waiting to see the full ticket before I write my check.
July 7th, 2008 at 9:45 pm
Dave while Romney did beat McCain in MI, I wouldn’t crow over it if I was him. He was the son of the former governor, had a huge money and advertising advantage, and at that point was basically in a win or go home mentality. McCain also basically conceded the state after he told them that the jobs won’t come back and that he can’t really help them. Even with all that, Romney won 39-31 I believe, not some huge victory by any means.. If He had won with say 50 or 60% I could se where he helps but a rather small plurality doesn’t exactly show strength in a state, especially a state that’s been Dem for 20 years where the GOP smaple is necessarily limited.
Kristofer, why can’t McCain pick before Aug 7th? Is there some law out there?
July 7th, 2008 at 9:45 pm
He needs to go just after Obama, but not during the Olympics.
July 7th, 2008 at 9:56 pm
I believe that McCain should build the suspense up and wait until the convention to name his selection not unlike Ronald Reagan did in 80.
July 7th, 2008 at 9:56 pm
ok so if obama goes july 31 he could go same day or 1-6 aug. and if obama goesbefore july 31 mccain coul;d announce same day as obama
July 7th, 2008 at 10:02 pm
#24 Yeah but it was who Romney won in MI that counted. McCain won the parts that Republicans usually win, while Romney won the Democratic parts by running as a George Romney Republican. If he resumed that role he might actually help the ticket, but at this point, I don’t really know where Romney stands or how he’d conduct himself as McCain’s running mate.
July 7th, 2008 at 10:06 pm
#27, I am not enough of an expert on media relations, but McCain can use this to mitigate the bump from Obama’s selection.
July 7th, 2008 at 10:24 pm
The 6 to 8 candidates?
Cisco CEO John Chambers -my darkest of dark horses.
A vice president brings a certain area of expertise and talent. I would probably assign some of those areas, like telecommunications or some other important issues.
-John McCain August 5, 2007
Second darkest horse is Chief Justics John Roberts. Razor sharp mind. Polls confirm he’s viewed favorably by the public http://www.pollingreport.com/R.htm#Roberts. Roberts has cast the deciding vote on guns and FISA. Two recent decisions that Barack Obama has praised (oh, the irony, I know). Plus Roberts was confirmed by something like 80 Senators. As Tom Coburn pointed out, McCain worked tirelessly behind the scenes to get Roberts confirmed in 05.
Mark Sanford - He brings all the executive experience and conservative cred that Mitt Romney does. But unlike Romney, he offers high approval ratings and didn’t spew the condescending bullcr@p Romney did.
Tim Pawlenty - The “Do Harm Candidate”
Colin Powell - (if only he could snap out of his mancrush on Obama)
Bill Owens - Good man. Good governor. He’d swing an important state –Colorado. If Owens is interested, his divorce should not disqualify him.
Ack, is Sarah Palin growing on me?
July 7th, 2008 at 10:32 pm
Great post.
Palin is out because of her downs syndrome baby. Fact.
Jindal too young. Portman too boring. It won’t be Lieberman. Ridge and Rudy possible but unlikely being pro choice.
Thune and Cantor are interesting picks.
Romney clearly the best but there is history there.
T/Paw the big fav.
I’d say
T/Paw 40%
Romney 20%
Cantor 8%
Thune 7%
Palin 5%
Jindal 5%
Ridge 5%
Rudy 5%
Someone else 5%
July 7th, 2008 at 10:41 pm
On the dark horse front, a new Rasmussen poll out tonight shows Rhode Island’s Governor Don Carcieri earning good or excellent ratings from only 40% of his state’s voters, while 27 percent say he is doing a poor job as governor. Rasmussen did not disclose in his write-up the percentage of those who said Carcieri is doing just a fair job.
July 7th, 2008 at 10:42 pm
Anyone who thinks T/Paw has a 40% chance of being VP could make a killing on intrade.com if they are right. Right now, T/Paw is barely half of Mitt Romney on intrade.com and he is higher than anyone else.
July 7th, 2008 at 11:14 pm
Heath, thank you for bringing sexism to the post.
“Palin is out because of her downs syndrome baby. Fact.” Are you crazy, Down babies do not require much more care than any other baby or toddler.
As well, when Gov. and Mrs. John Engler had triplets while in office, were you calling for his resignation?
July 7th, 2008 at 11:31 pm
DaveG,
Since the job of VP is to back up the front of the ticket, if Romney ran as VP as a culture warrior he would only be acting on McCain’s behest and I hope you would blame McCain for that.
July 7th, 2008 at 11:58 pm
sampo, no Constitutional lawyer quits the job of Chief Justice of the Supreme Court to be a VP nominee.
Are you out of your mind?
July 8th, 2008 at 12:44 am
Mayor Bloomberg as Veep?
http://www.newsday.com/news/local/newyork/am-bloom0708,0,949731.story
July 8th, 2008 at 1:12 am
I have to think most of these “sources close to the McCain campaign” are just making stuff up.
I Imagine it this way:
Reporter: Has McCain selected a running mate yet?
Source: He’s started the process, yeah.
Reporter: Who’s on the list?
Source: Oh, there’s about 10 or 12 people he’s looking at.
Reporter: Is Mitt Romney on the list?
Source: Mitt Romney is a talented and successful man, and has a bright future in the Republican party.
Reporter (in print): ROMNEY ON MCCAIN’S VP SHORT LIST!!!!!
July 8th, 2008 at 1:30 am
38, big s. lol
July 8th, 2008 at 3:06 am
Roberts was rumored to be gay during his confirmation hearing.
July 8th, 2008 at 3:48 am
I have been IG (if I’m right).
Get stuffed Kris.
July 8th, 2008 at 8:34 am
I still think Sen. McCain will surprise us by picking Mayor Rudy Giuliani who will then go on and put some juice into this race by going on the attack and exposing the lies and empty promises of the left as only Rudy can so eloquently do. And then he will go ahead and put up a strong fight in most of the ’so called’ blue states like NY,CA,PA,CT,NJ etc. he will also definitely keep FL for McCain.
July 8th, 2008 at 8:36 am
If McCain selects a woman, it’ll be Carly Fiorina, not Sarah Palin.
July 8th, 2008 at 12:23 pm
Heath,
Your are an idiot. Why in the world would having a down syndrome child disqualify you for vp? Your statement makes you look like a totol moron. Offensive and moronic statement you idiot. the administrators should erase that crap.