The Candidates
It seems like every day, a new post appears somewhere in the blogosphere decrying John McCain’s chances of becoming President. Today it is Stu Rothenberg, yesterday it was our very own DaveG (though an allowance is made for the possibility of a Bush-like EV/PV split in McCain’s favor).
To which I reply, for the umpteenth time, IT IS EARLY. John McCain is in fine shape to win this. In fact, he is probably in better shape than Bush was in 2004, when he was an incumbent polling in the 43%-45% range. Do I think he’s the odds-on favorite, or even the favorite? No. But I think for a variety of reasons it is waaaaay too EARLY to count him out.
For yet another reason, over at Politico they have a nice summary of Gallup mid-year polling. There are hundreds of ways to dissect these data, but the main point is that mid-year polling is not especially predictive of the final results.
But remember that Obama is the fresh young face in politics. He’s the new thing on the national scene. McCain is well-known and well-established. There’s the possibility that the undecideds are people who are curious about Obama, but who are uncertain about departing from the established product.
How do fresh young faces historically fare from their mid-year polling? Let’s look at races that featured an established national figure, running against someone who had never held or run for either Article II office before:
So let’s count this up. Of the seven races that had clear established products versus fresh new faces, the voters broke for the fresh new face in only two of them. Of those two, one was Goldwater-Johnson, where Goldwater hardly could have performed worse than his 1964 polling; the other was a half-century ago in a race where both candidates could arguably be the candidate of change.
In other words, the fresh-faced candidate of change can never be comfortable when he is polling in the high forties six months before the election. Those undecideds (and a chunk of his support) historically have not supported the fresh-faced candidate. Have we ever seen this before with Obama? Hmmm, I wonder.
Add in the fact that Obama has already spent a quarter of a billion dollars on a national, 50-state campaign (in the primaries), and one wonders how much more he can really do to move the dial in his direction . . .
July 7th, 2008 at 10:38 am
Thank you Sean! People need to really realize that this thing is still really early and its important to note that theres a good article on RCP.com that is explaining the emergence of Steve Schmidt to the campaign and now the campaign seems to have a clear focus. They also as of yesterday have a new political director, who was Giuliani’s former campaign manager, Mike Duhaime, and Bill Kristol is reporting they are about to hire Mike Murphy, who worked with McCain in 2000. So McCain’s campaign is starting to get some good new direction and focus and now we will start to see McCain making a big surge i think and he’s really not doing to bad in the poll’s as of today either considering the bad political environment for Republicans this year.
July 7th, 2008 at 10:43 am
Sean, change “five” to “two” in the “the voters broke for the fresh new face in five of them” sentence.
July 7th, 2008 at 10:59 am
McCain’s in great shape. The fact that Obama seems to have hit a 48% ceiling is terrific news for McCain, seeing as though the GOP candidate is usually the one whose summer numbers underestimate election-day strength. I’m very optimistic.
July 7th, 2008 at 11:24 am
How did Kristol get this scoop?
“Bill Kristol is reporting they are about to hire Mike Murphy”
Again, he also predicted a VP Palin for McCain, again.
July 7th, 2008 at 11:37 am
Bob,
It ain’t a scoop. Mike Murphy has been working with McCain for at least two months now. I’ve personally seen them together. Perhaps he will now have a formal position.
July 7th, 2008 at 11:49 am
but really are Repubs fretting that McCain won’t or will win this? You gotta fret either way
July 7th, 2008 at 11:49 am
People aren’t fretting because Sen McCain is slightly behind at this point (historically inconsequentailly, I might add, but has already been demonstrated). They are fretting because (a) the meme “‘R’=dead” is being believed, and (b) it’s Sen McCain, whom we don’t really trust. For (a), just realize that Sen Obama has been a spectacular flop in the most recent primaries (especially in the battleground states). For (b), well, there aren’t any other choices left, and his being who he is actually helps negate some of (a).
July 7th, 2008 at 11:50 am
I am very glad to see this posting. If the General Election (ignoring primaries) was a football game, we would be nearing the end of the first quarter, down by only a touchdown. In other words, I would rather be ahead right now, but this game is still winnable.
Given the political climate right now, us Republicans have no business winning anything, whether POTUS or Dog Catcher. Nevertheless, Senator McCain remains within a few points in most national polls, polls better then “generic Republican” and most of the traditional battleground states (OH, MI, PA, FL, NV, MO, NM, and perhaps even OR) are still battlegrounds. I will get worried only if one of the two following things happen:
1. We are still behind by a few points in October.
2. Obama starts polling above 52-53 percent nationally.
Don’t get me wrong, I am still concerned. I just don’t see the need to wave the white flag yet.
July 7th, 2008 at 11:53 am
I’ve never understood why Republicans do this. They say stuff like this, “We probably won’t win anyway.” “If we do win, it probably won’t be by that much.” “We can’t really act like Republicans because if we do we’ll lose.” Is that a way to galvanize the electorate to your side? NO!! No wonder young people prefer Obama. The Democrats are just tougher than the Republicans are, that’s all there is to it. They’re so tough that they can have someone die and gloat about it.
July 7th, 2008 at 12:10 pm
I should add that it is an interesting point how undecideds break for the more established candidate.
July 7th, 2008 at 12:11 pm
Another Bob, even if we’re behind a few points in October, McCain could still win. Obama never does as well on the actual election day as he does in the polls immediately leading up.
July 7th, 2008 at 12:15 pm
well, the smear campaign has started. Andrew Sullivan is pushing the idea that Crist is gay.
I cannot believe an openly gay Sullivan is trying to use this? Man has this guy ever lost his ethics and sound judgement? Sullivan is Hypocritical.
July 7th, 2008 at 12:15 pm
#11, That is true (knocking on wood). Granted, I would not like to depend on that, but it could happen in the General Election, just like it did in the primaries. Particularly as the General Election is open to all registered voters and not just Democrats as many of the primaries and caucuses were.
July 7th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
#12 - It’s only a “smear” if it’s not true, I suppose. Certainly that topic has been discussed extensively here. Looking at this from another angle it could be that Sullivan sees Crist as being blatantly hypocritical. That has been an “open” secret for a long time.
July 7th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
#9, it doesn’t help when the Republicans nominate a candidate that runs away from his party every chance he gets. Republicans would be fired up right now if they had nominated a candidate that they could get behind. It’s never as fun to vote AGAINST someone as it is to vote FOR someone and that explains the enthusiasm gap. That explains 2004. That’s not to say the strategy is wrong - get independents and moderate dems while the Republican base holds their nose or gets drunk or whatever and votes for McCain as well, but it would explain the general pessimism. I personally think there will be a lot of second-guessing of Obama in September and October and McCain will squeak this one out. Given the candidates and the present political environment, barring an October Surprise, I can’t see it being plausible that McCain wins in a landslide.
July 7th, 2008 at 12:26 pm
Hear is Bill Kristol’s article regarding Mike Murphy coming on board Team McCain, he seems to have excellent credentials and could be another big asset to McCain’s Campaign Team.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/07/opinion/07kristol.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
July 7th, 2008 at 12:27 pm
Anyway, today’s Rasmussen:
O-46
M-41
With leaners:
O-49
M-44
July 7th, 2008 at 12:56 pm
The economy is quickly becoming the major focus, and McCain is not well-equipped to talk about the economy. That’s the glaring problem. He has never held a job in the economy, and he really sounds like a fifth grader with his “I have Greenspan’s book” approach. It’s his achilles heal, and it’s quickly becoming the single issue in this race.
July 7th, 2008 at 1:26 pm
Mitt Romney needs to be announced soon as VP:
. He can raise huge amounts of oney
. He can help in Nevada, Colorado, Michigan, Montana, and probably others, and not hurt anywhere.
. He can hammer OBAMA on the economy…SOCIALIST, MARXISM, describe how tax hikes kill us… Drive home the economic impact of our energy money flowing to our enemies…Talk jobs, jobs, jobs, and describe exactly how we can accomplish it….call Obama on all his numerous flip flops that the media lets him get by with.
Mitt is so articulate, he can do all these things above and turn the love affair for Obama into a total flop! He uses his superior intellect, talent, and experience to show America the weaknesses of Obama’s positions
If McCain has half a brain, he will put Mitt on. Adam, its good to see you have come on board supporting Mitt. I know its been a struggle, but I believe it was an honest one on your part. Thanks for being open minded enough for the light to shine through.
Let’s ban together as Republicans and win this election. We can, and should be able to do it.
July 7th, 2008 at 1:28 pm
Illinoisguy: Romney is a solid pick, but I’d rather Palin. She would transform the race in a way that we can only dream about.
July 7th, 2008 at 1:40 pm
#20 - Mitt is much more qualified, and is extremely intelligent…let’s put the best person as VP. If we put Palin on, we can’t talk about the experience factor which is absolutely a huge one. It disappears as an issue with Mrs. Palin.
July 7th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
#19 - Wow, someone has drunk the Romney Kool-Aid. “He can do all these things above and turn the love affair for Obama into a total flop.” Get real.
July 7th, 2008 at 1:46 pm
He can..great men can accomplish great things!!
July 7th, 2008 at 1:48 pm
Not only that, Win, but he walks on water, too. Sometimes he even walks on Kool-Aid.
July 7th, 2008 at 1:52 pm
You’re exhibiting your jealousy again guys!
July 7th, 2008 at 1:54 pm
Vin Webber admitted today that there is no-one in McCain’s inner circle that wants Romney. This is the first, “on the record” comment we have had about the VP process from someone that is actually connected to the McCain camp.
July 7th, 2008 at 1:57 pm
#26 - then his inner circle is made up of a bunch of idiots.
July 7th, 2008 at 2:01 pm
#27, Charlie Black, Trent Lott
July 7th, 2008 at 2:23 pm
Oh, the ‘loose lips sink ships’ guys!
July 7th, 2008 at 2:54 pm
AMEN Seth, you are echoing rooster crows!
July 7th, 2008 at 3:05 pm
Sorry folks but Obama will win this election easily and I am a Republican or should say I was a Republican.
July 7th, 2008 at 3:17 pm
#31, great news, we will welcome you back in Decembe,w tihout any hard feelings.
July 7th, 2008 at 3:18 pm
December without*
July 7th, 2008 at 3:20 pm
If Obama wins, its too late!!! Our country will suffer immeasurably…quit being a bunch of defeatest!
July 7th, 2008 at 3:29 pm
#34, these were probably the same people who said Iraq was lost.
July 7th, 2008 at 4:23 pm
Kristofer, did you hear that we finished moving the yellowcake out of Iraq to Canada? Apparently we’d have been fine invading if Saddam had been trying to buy more, but the fact that he had 550 tons of it isn’t a problem.
July 7th, 2008 at 4:41 pm
#36, that was, this is now. I want our troops to come home in victory, but as soon as possible. That is all I care about.
It takes decades for a defeated military to regain footing and esteem.
July 7th, 2008 at 5:58 pm
Respectfully, if Romney were selected , whole reems of tv and radio tape would be played where he is swift-boating McCain and every other competitor. More tapes on his Massachusetts history (Pro-Abortion, Pro-Gay), more stuff put out (LA Times) about Bain Capital registering tax-free from the Cayman Islands, full of Mormon cash making money off the backs of Reagan Democrats all layed off to pad the purse of Varmitt and friends. Sorry, he just told one too many whoppers. Character problems like that do not win you trust in the chain of command.
Sounds like a needed refocus on campaign direction. Murphy is smart and can out-smart the Obamabots. THere are several possibilities on VP that are smarter than Romney.
They are, Powell, Pawlenty, Fiorina, Palin, Thompson, Hagel, Bloomberg, Crist, Petraeus, Whitman, Lugar, Armitage - I bet there are even more who would do better than Romney, and hey bonus, they wouldn’t all be such a flip-floppin phoney, fuller brushman, or foreflusher.
July 7th, 2008 at 10:59 pm
CONGRATS ON RCP
July 7th, 2008 at 11:42 pm
Mccain is a dead man walking. Nice enough guy but he has no chance in November unless Obama
self-destructs and he seems to be covered in teflon.
McCain will not wear well in the coming months, there is a lot of voter anxiety about the economy and nothing about McCain gives the impression to voters that he’s the guy to turn it around. He’s kind of a downbeat guy and that is only exacerbated by having to be compared to Obama.
In these uncertain times, people will be looking to the candidate who gives them hope about their futures and that’s not who John McCain is.
July 8th, 2008 at 2:09 am
Break it down, boys. This is gonna be razor close, maybe 269-269. First McCain will take the entire South, including Missouri. (I don’t include toss-up Virginia because it is losing its cultural Southernness. Trust me, I’m Southern, I know. Obama will take the entire Northeast. Trust me, I know Yankees, too. They are too PC to EVER vote against a Black candidate. Obama takes the entire Pacific West, including Hawaii. McCain takes the entire Northwest, including Alaska. OK, that leaves the two tricky parts of the country, the Midwest and the Southwest. McCain takes Michigan and Ohio in the Midwest while Obama is taking Colorado and New Mexico in the Southwest. (Hispanics and Yuppies, oh my.) Now that leaves Virginia. If Obama takes Virginia through Yankee-influx, then its a 269-269 electoral tie and that sends it to the House of Representatives where Obama is voted president. If McCain takes Virginia then he’s the next Prez. The moral of the story is that this could be as big a mess as 2000. McCain needs to hit those small, itty-bitty states with all the strength and No-Doze he can muster.