GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
As we know, Nevada will be one of the more hotly contested battleground states of this presidential election. This news, though, does not bode well for John McCain:
The Democrats now have a 55,560-voter lead over the Republicans in a state that was dead even a presidential cycle ago. But the numbers in NV-3 should be the most worrisome to the GOP, as Democrats now have a nearly 24,000-voter lead in a district that was even only two years ago. The slow-but-sure Democratic spread in that district means that Rep. Jon Porter will have to run a kitchen sink campaign against state Sen. Dina Titus to survive and will have to do so flawlessly, too.”
The current RCP average for Nevada shows a tie (43.3 to 43.3) between McCain and Obama.
Although many would argue that Nevada’s 5 electoral votes do not compare to those of Florida, Ohio, or Pennsylvania, every state is key when the chances of a 269-269 finish are conceivable. Furthermore, Nevada will play an increasingly important role in the 2012 and 2016 elections, since their chances of adding additional electoral votes is likely. Take a look at these statistics:
According to the Census Bureau’s 2007 estimate, Nevada has an estimated population of 2,565,382 which is an increase of 92,909, or 3.5%, from the prior year and an increase of 516,550, or 20.8%, since the year 2000. This includes a natural increase since the last census of 81,661 people (that is 170,451 births minus 88,790 deaths) and an increase due to net migration of 337,043 people into the state. Immigration from outside the United States resulted in a net increase of 66,098 people, and migration within the country produced a net increase of 270,945 people. According to the 2006 census estimate, Nevada is the country’s second-fastest growing state.
The majority of the people moving to Nevada from within the United States settle in the booming metropolis of Las Vegas. Many make the move from the East Coast, carrying with them their Democratic identity. This population shift could loosen the GOP’s grip on the Mountain West and desert regions, as we witness similar trends in Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico.
I remain very worried about Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada. I believe that McCain will hold Indiana, North Carolina, and Virginia.
July 8th, 2008 at 3:27 pm
Nevada will remain GOP in at least 2008. I think you’re correct over your fear over Colorado and New Mexico. This though is another reason why Romney would be a good VP choice. McCain picks Romney and he holds on to NV in my opinion.
July 8th, 2008 at 3:32 pm
Meanwhile, back at camp - the Democratic Congress job approval rating is in single digits now!
Expose the Dems where it hurts them - they are against digging for oil whether it is off-shore, ANWAR, shale, North Dakota, clean coals as well as utilizing nucs. We can pound on them on other issues, but this one really hurts them badly.
It will be a landslide election once McCain, Republicans and the anti-liberals pound on this daily.
July 8th, 2008 at 3:33 pm
Pound, pound and pound away at the Obama liberals!
July 8th, 2008 at 3:34 pm
The whole electoral map cries out for Mitt Romney! Our countries needs cry out for him! He is the best problem solver we’ve ever had run in modern history. I just hope John McCain is smart enough to see this, and not be afraid of the fact that Mitt overshadows him so badly.
July 8th, 2008 at 3:36 pm
Don’t go Ted on us, Illinoisguy.
July 8th, 2008 at 3:42 pm
#1, I heard Romney may be able to take Vermont for McCain. Romney’s pro-gay, pro-choice and pro-socialized health care successes in MA under Mitt will play positively for McCain in Vermont.
Apparently, signs are being seen around the Vermont that say;
“Pick Mitt - Take Montpelier”
July 8th, 2008 at 4:25 pm
The whole electoral map cries out for Mitt Romney! Our countries needs cry out for him! He is the best problem solver we’ve ever had run in modern history.
He’s also a very good problem creator, if you look at his actual record of governance.
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=18322
July 8th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
the chances of a 269-269 finish are conceivable
I’d say well within the realm of possibility. As of this moment, I see Obama winning every state Kerry won in 2004, plus IA, CO, and NM — but losing NH (perhaps the ultimate battleground in the R4′08). That happens, and the conceivable becomes reality.
As for Nevada, I still have it tinted light red/dark pink. The current RCP average is misleading, as it includes in its calculation a now-irrelevant SurveyUSA poll from back in February that had Obama leading by 5 points. In the last four months, only two surveys have been conducted, both in mid-June, and each had Obama at 42 percent, with McCain earning 44 and 45 percent in the Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen polls, respectively.
Illinoisguy,
I feel like I’m feeding squawking seagulls at the beach in telling you this, but your man Mitt is going to be on Hannity & Colmes tonight.
July 8th, 2008 at 6:07 pm
The problem is not as much Barack Obama as the fact that liberal California rats are leaving the sinking ship as fast as they possibly can. They are turning the entire Southwest purple. The “gains” the Dems are making in the Southwest have nothing to do with actual growth and actual Obama voters, but the fact that the Dems from CA are diluting the Red State Wild West.
SJR
The Pink Flamingo
July 8th, 2008 at 7:38 pm
If McCain did a Clinton92 and picked a fellow Westerner, would he be able to hold down the entire Mountain West? There aren’t many vaible picks, but John Ensign perhaps is a possibility who would lock in NV, and make CO/NM an easier hold.
July 8th, 2008 at 8:18 pm
Aron: I think you’re mostly right… though I think NH is less likely to go to McCain than MI, which I think McCain can take from the Dems, which means 282 EVs for McCain. CO I thin is still up in the air. But I do think IA and NM are Obama’s states. NH leans Obama at this point.
July 8th, 2008 at 8:20 pm
SJ: The same thing could be happening in New Hampshire, with liberals leaving Mass. and Vermont to go to make NH more liberal.
July 8th, 2008 at 8:24 pm
JayPe,
Palin is very much a cultural westerner (hunting, libertartian values), she was born in Idaho and is a western Governor.
July 8th, 2008 at 8:50 pm
It’s interesting that McCain performs better in Romney’s neighboring state of N.H & Romney performs better in McCain’s neighbor of Nevada.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:40 am
don’t worry. 78% of the Nevada population is Mormon…at least that is what I remember the reason was for Romney’s win…I might be off.
July 10th, 2008 at 2:42 am
Gosh, people blaming California for turning the West purple?? Wasnt it a decade and a half a go when republicans were crowing over the influx of conservative California types LEAVING CA for jobs or retirement in the cheaper, emptier West? How we forget… Immigration (Hispanics and Asians) and migration (educated white liberals) were only part of the reason CA went Leftward in the 90s. We cant forget that the literal departure of thousands of conservatives greatly speeded up that transition.
Expect to see continued “purpling” of the West thanks to immigration and big bad Californian migrants.