Zogby did an interesting poll of all 50 states. It was of likely voters between June 11-30. I was amazed at how well Barr and Nader did in many states, but here are the results from the Granite State:
Zogby New Hampshire General Election Poll, conducted June 11th-30th, 2008.
- Obama – 40%
- McCain – 37%
- Barr – 10%
- Nader – 2%
- Someone else – 7%
- Undecided – 4%
Methodology: Zogby International conducted an online survey of 436 likely voters. The poll ran from June 11-30. It carries a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percentage points.
McCain, Obama nearly even with Independents. In a tight race, will 9% stay with Barr and help Obama win the state? Are the participants in the Free State Project finally having an impact?
July 9th, 2008 at 7:00 pm
I’m not a big fan of Zogby polls… pretty unreliable… what is the Free State Project? No other polls have Barr taking that much of the vote, which means McCain could actually be winning NH (Barr is a former Republican and would probably take away more votes from McCain).
July 9th, 2008 at 7:01 pm
Interesting. Is Barr benefitting from Ron Paul’s high profile in NH? (money and advertising, if not votes).
McCain has a real shot if the 3rd party votes drift back to the two parties come election day (which they almost always do).
July 9th, 2008 at 7:04 pm
Barr is riding the Ron Paul express… he’ll settle down to around 7% of the NH vote this fall
July 9th, 2008 at 7:05 pm
McCain will win NH, just as surely as NH polls overrate Obama.
July 9th, 2008 at 7:11 pm
Zogby’s online polls are awful.
July 9th, 2008 at 7:12 pm
Obama was overrated by 10.9 points. lol. Thanks for the memories pollsters!
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_primary-194.html
Will no one post Jesse “I want to cut Obama’s nuts off” Jackson’s comments?
July 9th, 2008 at 7:14 pm
I live in NH, and I wouldn’t be so sure that McCain will pull ahead in NH in the end. There are a sizeable chunk of people who are genuine libertarians in NH. I have several friends who promise to vote for Bob Barr. A lot of people in the southern part of the state listen to Jay Severin (Boston radio 96.9 FM talk) who is very loudly saying that the only way he’ll vote for McCain is if he picks Romney to be his VP. Personally, I think there is too much at stake to not vote for McCain. We’ll see. Above all else, however, I want Sununu to be re-elected. He is a great Senator and I hope my state comes around.
July 9th, 2008 at 7:20 pm
Useless. Completely. Utterly. Useless. Other pollsters laugh at the methodology.
I know polling is like crack cocaine for political junkies like us, but if I worked for Gallup or Strategic Vision or Rasmussen or yes, even ARG, this is the kind of stuff that would make me want to cuff John Zogby over the head. It diminishes the value of all other polling by muddying the waters in the industry over what is deemed scientifically sound.
July 9th, 2008 at 7:21 pm
question when likely will the convention schedules be released? I plan to watch both conventions even though I will vote mccain! I hope former senator zell miller will get invited to the RNC convention again!!!
July 9th, 2008 at 7:22 pm
Don’t be surprised with Barr’s strong showing at this time. Spoiler candidates are notorious for polling WELL ahead of their final results when the election is still months away, mainly because telling a pollster you intend to vote for the spoiler is an easy way to express your dissatisfaction with the major party candidate without actually voting for him. I remember back in late 1999 Pat freaking Buchannan polled 9 per cent in a Presidential preference poll (that would be the election he struggled to reach 0.5% nationally, even with $13 million in free campaign money). And in 2004 Nader routinely polled 1-2 per cent even on the eve of election, but his actual vote total was less than 0.3 percent.
July 9th, 2008 at 7:23 pm
The Free State Project was when a bunch of libertarians chose New Hampshire to move to a few years ago to try and make it a more libertarian state. I don’t understand why Severin says it has to be Romney as VP. Why is Romney okay but another conservative isn’t?
July 9th, 2008 at 7:23 pm
More pollster memories.
California Democratic Primary:
Zogby: Obama +13.0
Result: Clinton +9.6
Poor John Zogby.
July 9th, 2008 at 7:23 pm
The one thing is Barr voters are not Obama voters. They might just not vote at all, but young liberals have Obama, why do they need Barr?
July 9th, 2008 at 7:24 pm
Are the party affiliations given during questioning? Bob Barr is not a very well known name, but “libertarian” carries a lot more weight in NH than in most other states. Barr is not really a libertarian, politically, and is just using the party as a vehicle to get his name on the ballot.
July 9th, 2008 at 7:24 pm
It’s an online survey. During the primaries, Ron Paul was fairly consistently the frontrunner among Republicans in any online poll (as Dennis Kucinich often won among Democrats).
Totally worthless.
July 9th, 2008 at 7:24 pm
Zogby’s claim to fame was being really accurate in the Clinton-Dole race. He had Clinton by 8 which was what he won by as opposed to some networks that had Clinton up much, much higher.
July 9th, 2008 at 7:25 pm
I didn’t know it was an online survey.
July 9th, 2008 at 7:25 pm
9, ah, will another duel challenge to Chris Matthews to boot.. hhaha
July 9th, 2008 at 7:26 pm
Romney I don’t think will put McCain over the top in NH… after all, Romney spent millions in NH and outspent McCain big time to still lose by 6 to McCain in the NH primary. I also wouldnt weigh too highly the impact of talk radio… evidence: Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson’s failed campaigns and the success of McCain and Huckabee who were despised by talk radio. McCain might not need NH (only 4 EVs), but he might if McCain loses CO, NV, and NM.
July 9th, 2008 at 7:29 pm
18… I heard Pres. Bush will speak Monday night, before McCain even arrives at the convention… and that a lot of people McCain beat in the GOP primaries as well will be there (Romney, Huckabee, THompson, Giuliani).
July 9th, 2008 at 7:31 pm
This is the worst “polling” I have ever seen – here are some other highlights from this poll
- Barr getting 6-10% in EVERY STATE
- Arizona Obama +3
- Texas McCain +3
- Oklahoma McCain +5
- Arkansas Obama +2
- Michigan Obama +14
- South Carolina Obama +1
- North Carolina Obama +9
Needless to say this poll is junk
July 9th, 2008 at 7:31 pm
I want to see John McCain Jr. speak at the convention. I dont even think I’ve seen footage of him.
July 9th, 2008 at 7:35 pm
just wondering will the week of democrats convetion in Denver all be bush bashing at the dems convention?
July 9th, 2008 at 7:39 pm
This poll, when run through my Zogby BS Filter, actually leads me to believe that McCain is ahead in NH right now.
No pollster with any self respect would release a poll showing Obama ahead in SC, AR, and AZ.
July 9th, 2008 at 7:44 pm
Here are a couple more – this poll is just ridiculous
- New Mexico Obama +16
- Kentucky McCain +5
- Tennessee McCain +5
- Barr at 9% in Oklahoma???
I would LOVE to see the methodology behind this polling but you have to be a Zogby subscriber, which given the accuracy of his polling I would not pay 5 cents to be
July 9th, 2008 at 7:50 pm
Why is an online poll being posted on the front page.
July 9th, 2008 at 7:50 pm
I am much more optimistic for McCain now. I have said all along that Obama can’t break 43%. No, Barr won’r get over 1 %. McCain in a landslide.
July 9th, 2008 at 8:08 pm
anybody think Former MD Lt. gov. Mike Steele will get to do a primetime speech at just wondering hope the RNC considers putting him on the convention speaking list even if he does not make vp mccain list?!
July 9th, 2008 at 8:13 pm
Mike Steele will speak. I’d put a lot of money on that.
July 9th, 2008 at 8:14 pm
This polls may be ridiculous, but we cannot ignore the fact that McCain is not actively seeking to solidate the base of this party. He does not have as strong the grassroot movement from recent presidential contests (leaving alone Obama’s). He should be busy getting the base of the party excited to work for him once again, but he has been busy courting independents and moderates. He will not win without the base. This is a sad, but simple, fact. He was right in shaking up his campaign organization, but we need to cross our fingers to see if there is anything productive from his team on that front!
July 9th, 2008 at 8:29 pm
McCain will carry this state. NH voters always break late for McCain. When they start to pay attention, McCain wins.
July 9th, 2008 at 8:44 pm
Zogby Interactive polls = worthless. The people polled are all those who have signed up on his website to participate, so it’s by no means random. Plus you can lie about what state you are registered to vote in… they call 2% of people to “check” on their info. His interactive polls have been way off in the past, far more than his normal polling.
July 9th, 2008 at 8:50 pm
that poll was taken over 19 days! ha!
July 9th, 2008 at 9:58 pm
I like to deal in facts, regardless of this poll being good or not, NH is not going to be a given to McCain.
In 2000, McCain won the NH Primary with 48% of the vote (Bush at 30% and Forbes at 13%).
In 2008, McCain won the NH Primary with only 37% of the vote (Romney 32%, Huckabee 11%, Giuliani 8%, Paul 8%).
The fact that he got far fewer votes from 2000 to 2008 is not a good sign. There were just more candidates to split the vote this time. NH went blue in 2006 because conservatives stayed home. Those voters are upset, and those voters might stay home again or vote for Barr (maybe not in the large numbers that this poll suggests).
July 9th, 2008 at 10:17 pm
just going to throwing this WHAT IF kind of question If oboma put Hill A BEAST on ticket since he will have to find a good star power vp to go up against hillary do you think he should seriously consider Rudy?
July 9th, 2008 at 10:20 pm
IF hillary is there vp I don’t want mccain to name a no-named less named wimp kind of vp if you know what i mean if oboma choose hillary
July 9th, 2008 at 10:22 pm
Greg,
The question you would have to study is who gets you more Electoral Votes – Catholics or Mormons? Rudy could attract the Catholic vote in places such as New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and the midwest. Mitt helps lure more Mormons in in the Mountain West.
July 9th, 2008 at 10:27 pm
no i mean if it’s here we need no kind of BS debater in the vp debate if you know what I mean no john edwards type for the gop. Kinda like when dick chenkey kicked edwards tail in that 04 debate you know!
July 9th, 2008 at 10:32 pm
#34 New Hampshire will be close. It’s definitely not a given; no northeastern state is for a republican! But, how interesting that it will actually be in play for the GOP this year.
If, for some reason, Hillary were chosen (she won’t be), choosing someone like Romney might become a necessity (though I don’t think, under normal circumstances, that he’s a good choice). If Edwards were chosen, that also presents a bit of a dilemma (and that one could conceivably happen).
Speaking of conventions, I fear our convention’s ratings won’t come close to the Dems.’ Maybe we should do something dramatic, like wait to reveal the VP until then. Though, I suppose that’s too late. But we need to do something to counter Obama’s 75,000 person outdoor speech deal-e-o.
July 9th, 2008 at 10:42 pm
#36, How about this;
McCain – Gingrich
Obama – Clinton
The highest rated debate would be Gingrich-Clinton……all that bad blood!
#39, great idea…it may happen!
July 9th, 2008 at 11:01 pm
Ha, a Gingrich – Clinton debate would be fascinating!
However, McCain/Gingrich has 5 marriages between them. I think that would comfortably be some sort of record. And not a good record either…
July 9th, 2008 at 11:50 pm
These polls are laughable, I agree, but, on the other hand, don’t laugh too loudly. View it all with a keen eye. I keep telling everyone that the south is tenuous. Huckabee supporters are seriously considering Barr without Huckabee on the ticket, and especially if Romney is selected. I don’t see all of SC, NC, ARK, etc falling under, but I do believe that VA will fall and GA/NC will be susceptible and will need to be defended. (And if Hillary does make the ticket — which I don’t think she will, but who knows? — then watch out for West VA and Ark, as well.) Huckabee solidifies the south (and that would include West VA, Ark and Kansas if Hillary climbs aboard) — McCain never has to look back at the south, takes a shot at IA and OH. Romney will never get Michigan, and Pawlenty will certainly never get Minnesota or Wisconsin — McCain is playing straight defense; he needs to hold on to as much as he can. Romney may help in CO, but I think it is too far gone; may help in Nevada, but the defining point in Nevada will most likely be the hispanics, not the mormons.
I know McCain will not choose Huckabee, but I do believe it will be McCain’s loss, and it will be evident after the election. I can’t decide who is worse – Pawlenty or Romney. I guess in the end I prefer Romney because, despite the harm he causes, having Pawlenty on the ticket is equal to McCain running all by himself — and we know how exciting McCain is.
July 10th, 2008 at 12:17 am
Am I only the woman in America that is suspicious of the Mormon faith and their treatment of women?
July 10th, 2008 at 12:35 am
7% go for someone else? Who are they going for? Given 12% are already locked in for Barr/Nadar… Perhaps this is the Bloomberg/Hagel vote?
July 10th, 2008 at 12:38 am
#41, if McCain has to defend GA then he’s toast. NC and VA would be likely to fall before GA does. And if those fall, then McCain can hold onto the West & Ohio (looking unlikely) and even pick up Michigan and still lose.
McCain needs to lock in GA/NC, and soon. Perdue for VP anyone?
July 10th, 2008 at 4:58 am
#43, no you are not the only woman suspicious of the Mormon faith and the women issue.
Funny how the MSM never mentions this issue.
July 10th, 2008 at 6:43 am
Firstly, Bob Barr is not just “riding the Ron Paul express.” I’ve got news for you all. There are many Bob Barr supporters who could never stomach supporting Paul, and his extremist out-of-the-mainstream conspiratorialist views. Barr is a much more mainstream libertarian. Thus, his support is much broader than Paul’s ever was.
Secondly, to say that Bob Barr is “using the Libertarian Party” and in this for his own personal gain, shows a complete ignorance and lack of knowledge on Barr and the LP. Newsflash: Barr has been a member of the Libertarian National Committee for 3 years now, and a Lifetime Member of the LP for 4. He’s not some newcomer to the Party.
Sheesh! The level of ignorance on the Libertarian Party of some of the posters here is amazing.
July 10th, 2008 at 6:48 am
Bob Barr has just about reached the point in New Hampshire where he could actually overcome McCain. He’s just into double digits at 10%. All that needs to happen is for that to go up just a little bit to the mid-teens range, 15 or 16%, and this is an entirely new ballgame for the State.
McCain’s support could collapse, and NH conservative voters could suddenly rally to Barr, as the only hope to beat ultra-Leftist Obama.
Wishful thinking? Why is it, out of 50 states, it’s NEW HAMPSHIRE! where Barr has the highest percentage?
There’s something about NH, that makes it particularly ferrile ground for the Libertarian Party.
And as New Hampshire goes, may go the rest of the Nation?
July 10th, 2008 at 6:53 am
For those who say the Zogby poll and Barr’s results in it are “junk,” I’d respond that these same figures are echoed in other recent polls, including Independent Political Strategies, and another statewide polling firm in North Carolina, which just found Barr at 7% in one Congressional District.
Each week, Barr’s numbers grow stronger. After he won the nomination in late May, he was at 1%. A couple weeks later he was at 3%. Now he’s polling 6 to 7% nationwide, and 10% in New Hampshire!
He could be in Ross Perot, mid to high teens category in a couple weeks. If so, this race is an entirely new ballgame.
And you think the McCain people will have headaches over Barr? The Obama people will be besides themselves trying to figure out how to respond to a guy who wants to abolish the IRS, cut spending across the board, and opposes the Nanny-State. Barr will make Obama look the complete Communist/Fascist that he is.
July 10th, 2008 at 7:16 am
You don’t get out much, do you?
July 10th, 2008 at 7:23 am
Look Adam, you need to face reality. I know it’s tough for mainline Republicans like you to fess up too, but fess up you must for the good of our Republican Party.
The GOP ROYALLY SCREWED UP by nominating John McCain. He was the second worst of the lot, (next to Huckabee, of course.) Since the 1990s, a good portion of the American electorate has moved in the libertarian direction. The vast majority of these libertarian-leaning voters are in the GOP camp.
So, how does the GOP respond in 2008? Three perfectly good libertarian-leaning GOP contenders – Romney, Giuliani & Thompson – and the GOP friggin’ picks the non-libertarian old guy, McCain.
Stupid! Utterly stupid.
There’s only one thing that can save McCain right now. And that’s for his to pick a libertarian-leaning Conservative as his VP like Romney or better yet, Sarah Palin.
Saving that, 95% of all libertarian votes this year are going to go to Bob Barr.
July 10th, 2008 at 7:25 am
All I am saying is that there is no serious way that Barr is going to overcome McCain in NH. No way. You can argue that McCain is not the best nominee. You can argue that he is going to lose. You can argue that the GOP has lost its way. But there is no way that Barr is going to overcome McCain in any state – probably not even in any county.
July 10th, 2008 at 7:28 am
And look, I’m supporting Romney now for VP (pretty much by default – but that’s another matter). But how do you consider Romney a libertarian? Here is a guy that wants government in the health care business and an automatic “Be gone, Porno” button on every computer. He was a so-con in every sense of the word and wanted a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage.
In what world is Mitt Romney a libertarian?
July 10th, 2008 at 7:57 am
I agree with Adam on Romney Eric. McCain’s choice IMHO should be Sanford or Palin.
Romney would want the Internet regulated six ways to Sunday. And as much as I don’t care so much about the medical marijuana issue so much…that video of Romney being rude to the wheelchair bound guy who wanted medical marijuana legalized turned me off.
Huckabee was a feminist socialist. His campaign manager was Janice Cherry, a radical feminist “Christian” who directly advised the Huckster not to stick up for men’s rights issues.
A huge mistake for McCain would be Jindal…a socon grandstander.
McCain has no choice but to pick a libertarian…and in July…because delaying will only cause Bob Barr to grow stronger and stronger before the RP convention.
July 10th, 2008 at 8:18 am
Romney was quoted in a Christian Science Monitor interview in July of 2007 as saying that in regards to pornography, he didn’t think it was his place to “regulate the viewing habits of consenting adults.” Very libertarian!
He’s also quite the free marketeer and good on tax cuts and spending issues.
A full-fledged libertarian he is not. But a conservative with a libertarian streak who is capable of appealing to libertarians, he most certainly is.
Sarah Palin is much better. She has actually attended meetings of the Libertarian Party of Alaska, and has praised the LP in public speeches. But Romney is the next best thing for libertarians.
John Thune and Chris Cox and Mark Sanford are also quite good from the libertarian perspective.
But Rob Portman, Tim Pawlenty, or some other boring-ass conservative pick by McCain will gaurantee Bob Barr gets tens of millions of votes this November.
July 10th, 2008 at 8:20 am
I will proudly display my Barr/Root 2008 bumper sticker as soon as I get it. I also work with a few younger voters who were big Paul supporters but lost interest after Paul didn’t win. I’ve been pushing them all towards Barr as a great opportunity to voice their displeasure with politics as usual. It is very interesting because almost everyone I work with are strong minded conservative libertarians and McCain fails to excite or even intrigue any of us.
I highly doubt Barr will win NH or finish second, for that matter. However, I do know that many conservative libertarians in this state will either vote Barr or not bother to vote at all. McCain really was the 2nd worst possible candidate the GOP could have nominated. And, as Eric put it already, McCain already lost a bunch of support in NH. The dynamic of NH politics has changed dramatically since 2000 – so this phenomenon can’t be tied just to the fact there were candidates to split the vote. The Free State Project is a legit movement in NH. The influx of Massholes is also changing the dynamics of NH politics. I realize that in 2006 most of NH was fed up with GWB and Iraq but the fact that there were even enough Dems in NH to change the tide of NH Politics that much is a fact McCain is going to have to deal with.
I have no idea if any of what I just said made any sense. I am trying to type while eating breakfast with my wife, daughter, and niece.
July 10th, 2008 at 8:35 am
#55, “RayinNH Says: McCain really was the 2nd worst possible candidate the GOP could have nominated.”
Are you really serious? You can say that with a straight face?
McCain is the only GOP candidate that will be able to take NH, and on a national level, all the other candidates would have been 25% behind Obama right now. McCain has essentially been tied with the Democratic candidates in polls going back 12 months. The other former GOP candidate can have said the same.
July 10th, 2008 at 8:39 am
I just hope McCain hurries up and announces his VP pick or at least his final. Because once I start sending money to Barr and putting on his bumper sticker and emailing my vast list of email contacts all over the country there is no stopping. There are 3 or 4 VP’s (maybe 1 or 2 more as well) who would most likely cause me to vote for McCain so if he were announce his final 4 were: Palin, Romney, Sanford, Whitman, Fiorna, probably Jindal I could support McCain. He just needs to tell me soon because I’ve been missing promoting my candidate since Romney dropped out and I don’t know how much longer I can wait, so it just might be Barr by default because McCain still hasn’t made the right efforts to win over my support.
July 10th, 2008 at 8:40 am
Kristofer – yes, I have a COMPLETELY STRAIGHT FACE on right now and I did when I wrote #55 as well. Huckabee was the only worse candidate for the GOP.
July 10th, 2008 at 8:40 am
# 54
“Rob Portman, Tim Pawlenty, or some other boring-ass conservative pick by McCain will gaurantee Bob Barr gets tens of millions of votes this November.”
I would concentrate on getting ONE million votes before getting TEN.
July 10th, 2008 at 8:43 am
This is the problem with the GOP.
http://newsbusters.org/static/2008/07/2008-07-09MSNBCHB.wmv
July 10th, 2008 at 8:50 am
bob – how about you summarize your link – I don’t feel like opening a .wmv file
July 10th, 2008 at 8:53 am
Sorry, it was a video of Chuck Todd stating that McCain would like to consider Ridge, but he cannot due to the Christian Right. The commentators are stating that they believe Ridge would carry PA for McCain, as Ridge remains very popular there.
They essentially end by saying that is McCain gains PA, Obama will not be President.
July 10th, 2008 at 8:56 am
I thought McCain didn’t care about anybody else’s opinion? He’s the maverick who bucks against the base and powers that be but appeals to indies and moderate dems and that’s why we chose him? Why does he care what the Christian Right thinks about Ridge – he’s his own man, right?
July 10th, 2008 at 9:02 am
If McCain chose Ridge, he would basically win this election immediately. Ridge wins you Pennsylvania and that’s the ball game. The choice of Ridge would dominate the news cycle for weeks and probably also give McCain a bump across the board. I don’t think that the Evangelicals and Values Voters would mind that much – they might hem and haw for a couple of days but they would run right back to McCain by the election. Ridge could also move to the right on abortion, not unlike George H. W. Bush did in 1980 and all would be well with the base.
July 10th, 2008 at 9:07 am
JA, great point, Bush 1 was pro-choice. The problem is, Ridge is as principled as McCain and I do not think Ridge is changing his views. Ridge would help McCain sweep western and southern PA.
On a great point, in the next segment, Tom Delay mentioned Sarah Palin as a potential VP choice. I am not sure if I want Delay’s endorsement for her, but?
July 10th, 2008 at 9:09 am
#46. People go on and on about why Romney is the greatest and why he should be president or vice president, but they haven’t addressed my concerns that he won’t project the Mormon view on women into his presidency. It’s a huge elephant in the room that no one talks about, but will manifest itself in the voting booth.
July 10th, 2008 at 9:13 am
How are we sure that Ridge would win PA? I’m originally from PA and I wouldn’t be so certain about such a thing. The state has drifted slowly leftward over the last decade and a non-incumbent Republican hasn’t won a statewide race since 1994. Given the hit that Ridge has taken from being associated with the radioactive Bush administration (the Democrats will love to play up Ridge’s connection to the threat warning level, the so-called “rainbow of terror”) I would be skeptical that Ridge would make McCain’s shot at the state any better than 50/50 at best – even with Obama’s cultural disconnect.
And if McCain goes with Ridge, how will that play in states with more of a so-con bent, like OH or MO?
If we were more certain that Ridge could tip the state into our column I’d be all for it – but it seems awfully risky. If McCain loses PA then he can win following the 2000 and 2004 model, but if Ridge can’t deliver the state and it causes a loss in other swing states then it’s game over.
July 10th, 2008 at 9:13 am
What is disgusting is to see Romney and his supporters push for Mitt as VP. They are blanketing the media, leaking false stories, threatening to not donate unless Mitt is on the ticket. I have never seen anything like this before in history of US Presidential elections. Amazing and surprised is the only word to describe it.
July 10th, 2008 at 9:14 am
How are we sure that Ridge would win PA? I’m originally from PA and I wouldn’t be so certain about such a thing. The state has drifted slowly leftward over the last decade and a non-incumbent Republican hasn’t won a statewide race since 1994. Given the hit that Ridge has taken from being associated with the radioactive Bush administration I would be skeptical that Ridge would make McCain’s shot at the state any better than 50/50 at best – even with Obama’s cultural disconnect.
And if McCain goes with Ridge, how will that play in states with more of a so-con bent, like OH or MO?
July 10th, 2008 at 9:18 am
I have heard some suggestions that Mitt might really have McCain cornered. If McCain doesn’t select Romney as his Veep, Mitt could depress Mormon turn our in Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico by telling Mormons to stay home and thus gearing up for another run in 2012. I don’t think that he will do this because it would anger other voters in other States but we don’t know what’s going on behind the scenes.
July 10th, 2008 at 9:18 am
If we could be more certain that Ridge would tilt the state our way I would be all for his selection. But if pro-choice Ridge can’t deliver PA and causes OH and MO to defect then we’re pretty much sunk. It seems awfully risky.
July 10th, 2008 at 9:19 am
#67, you have NEVER seen a potential VP and his surrogates/supporters push for them to become VP? Is this your first year of following politics? In 1974 George H.W. Bush had an entire campaign apparatus set up to get Ford to name him to the vacant VP slot. What is silly is all these potential VP candidates pretending like they don’t want the job when they obviously do. The only two that I have seen be honest about it are Romney and Biden.
July 10th, 2008 at 9:23 am
Who ever said the Bushies don’t like to roll around in the mud and play dirty?
July 10th, 2008 at 9:25 am
JA, they are absolutely trying to corner McCain. You are correct.
Adam, Ridge is not perceived to have ties to Bush. It is well known that Ridge and Cheney are not even on talking terms. My brother is a former politician just outside Erie and although the state is perceived to have moved left, I am not sure that is the case? Outside of Philly, the Democrats are not very popular at the moment, especially the sitting Governor.
Ridge is from the region of PA where Bush 2 underperformed. Erie county voted Democratic, that is the same county that named the international airport after its native son, Tom Ridge.
I will support McCain either way, but Romney is not good news for a McCain ticket. RayinNH is correct, let us hope we see the maverick McCain make the VP choice and not the Washington insiders who are lobbying for Romney.
July 10th, 2008 at 9:28 am
#71, i said, “I have never seen anything like this before in history of US Presidential elections”
Yes, we have seen VP movements and tussles at conventions, but please sit back and look at all the stories and supposed “leaks” about Romney as VP in the last 2 weeks.
It is unprecedented at this level. Do a Google and YouTube seach for the past month and you will see what I am talking about.
July 10th, 2008 at 9:33 am
Kristofer,
I don’t really care if it’s Ridge or Romney at this point, though on a personal level I never really cared for Romney. I just want to win. The $64M question is: Can Ridge counter the Rendell machine? I’m not at all confident he could. If you could somehow hack off Philadelphia County from the rest of the state, Democrats would NEVER be popular enough to win, but I’m not sure that Rendell isn’t at least moderately popular. After all, it was only a year and a half ago where he clobbered an admittedly unprepared Lynn Swann.
And Obama’s only game has been to call out McCain as Bush III. I agree that Ridge isn’t perceived to have ties to Bush – but the Democrats won’t let that stand. They’ll dig up footage of Ridge next to Bush and Cheney and run ad after ad to MAKE him tied to Bush. The terror alert system that Ridge engineered as been mocked for a while.
I’d love to see Ridge pull McCain over the finish line in PA. I’m just not convinced he can.
July 10th, 2008 at 9:37 am
I think that a Ridge selection is unlikely only because of Steve Schmidt’s increased influence on the campaign. Schmidt is a Bush/Cheney guy and Cheney has had his differences with Ridge in the past. I understand that they are taking a serious look at Porman.
July 10th, 2008 at 9:44 am
I haven’t seen any reporting on this or seen it talked about any where, but it is my guess that because Cheney agreed to forgo a run at the Presidency, thus negating the usual succession route of the VP this cycle, that he feels, at least in part, some authority on the question of who should succeed Bush. I think those of us trying to discern who the VP will be would be wise to see this decision through the eyes of Cheney. I also believe that there was a deal made sometime in 04 with McCain, exchanging tacit Bush/Cheney support in 08 for McCain’s support for Bush in 04 – all behind the scenes.
July 19th, 2008 at 4:22 pm
[...] single digits, along with Ralph Nader, in national polls and he pulled a notable 10% in a recent Zogby poll of New Hampshire [...]