The Candidates
I cannot believe that I wrote that headline…
There is a good chance Barack Obama’s fundraising total from June will be less than the $22 million he raised in May. No word on whether McCain’s fundraising total was up from then, but if you recall, Sen. McCain only came in $1 million behind Obama for the month.
Nothing is certain, but there is at least the possibility (remember-I said possibility) that John McCain outraised Barack Obama in June.
The silence on this front, as they say, is deafening.
Update: One of the most insightful observers of the 2008 race emailed me with these two tidbits:
First off, traffic has decreased on Obama’s official site. Secondly, Obama is back on the rubber chicken circuit, which may suggest that he needs to find new methods of raising money.
Once again, this is purely speculation at this point. The numbers should be leaked to someone soon.
Update 2: As someone alluded to in the comments, there is a good possibility that the problems experienced by Sen. McCain last summer (building a gargantuan national campaign apparatus which needs to be torn down when the money is not there) will happen to Sen. Obama if this speculation bears fruit. How much money is needed to fund a campaign that has 150 paid staffers in Missouri anyhow?!
July 9th, 2008 at 11:58 am
I’m sure with combined RNC fundrasing McCain did beat Obama…
However did anyone read this article today?
Obama is going to have 150 field staffers in Missouri!!!!!!!
http://www.kansascity.com/775/story/697394.html
July 9th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
The Rasmussen poll today had McCain taking Missouri. Also, just like Florida, his favorability profile was much better than Obama’s, making it basically impossible for Obama to take the state.
July 9th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
At the beginning of last month Obama had over 800 paid staffers nation-wide. McCain about 250. Obama needs to significantly outraise McCain to keep pace, or either, 1) Obama will have to cut staff or states he is competing for, 2) Obama has very little $ for tv and radio ad’s.
Remember in 2000 when Gore had very little $ for the last month?
July 9th, 2008 at 12:23 pm
Why is this happening? I thought Obama had all these small donors that were going to keep giving over and over.
July 9th, 2008 at 12:23 pm
This is great news Kavon,
Perhaps the liberals blew too much gun powder fighting each other. Hilary Clinton raised & spent more money than any other losing primary candidate in history. How motivated could those supporters be to financially back Obama now? Especially since Obama now flips on Iraq and essentially takes the Clinton position. They must all be fuming mad.. I would be..
Now wouldn’t it be great if Obama’s fund raising numbers continue to come in weak after the convention? Obama would re-reverse himself accepting federal funds.
July 9th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
If this is true, it’ll be like Christmas morning for the GOP. Imagine the headlines of the utterly *shocked* MSM? Plus, the perception (and reality) that Obama is losing the fund-raising game will be a huge blow to dem morale and probably hamper Obama’s fundraising further.
July 9th, 2008 at 12:28 pm
#6, Joshua Lawson,
How does Obama reverse himself again? That might be political suicide.
Again, only stupid politicians rely on the youth vote to win. Those kids are no longer sending him $25 through Facebook. That is the problem.
July 9th, 2008 at 12:29 pm
cwpete, the nomination was essentially taken from Hillary Clinton anyway, so I can see why they’d be upset. It’s Hillary’s own fault, but 2 states that would have been big for her were ignored. If Michigan and Florida were treated as regular states, she would have gone into Super Tuesday having won New Hampshire, Nevada, Michigan, and Florida and having lost only Iowa and South Carolina and would have been the inevitable nominee. Can we have the general election and just ignore California and New York? Then McCain will be all set, and we can just relax for the summer and fall.
July 9th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
bob, Howard Dean raised all kinds of money through small contributions in 2004, and look where it got him, Kerry blew him away
July 9th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
#9 correct. It is much easier to call big donors and have them raise money. Internet donors are much less reliable.
July 9th, 2008 at 12:46 pm
Combined, by the end of May, Hillary and Obama had raised and spent close to $500 million. I always thought that taking that much money out of the base that early may cause money issues down the road for the eventual nominee. They both went back to their supports often and many of them may be simply out of money to give. And, I seriously doubt that Hillary supporters having given a truckload already are all that willing to give more to Obama.
July 9th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
Bob, I completely agree with you on the youth vote. The entire Obama movement is essentially one, giant, well-financed fad. It’s an even more fickle fad (pardon the awful alliteration) because, as you point out, it’s based on youth and the Facebook crowd. I think you’re beginning to see the fad and hype die out and the oung people move on to scrapping their wading-pool money to go out and get an iPhone.
How does Obama reverse himself again? Look for an even bigger Iraq reversal in the early Fall, a flip-flop on talknig to Iran and possibly another. He just can’t resist the political gain of moving to the “center”.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:01 pm
FWIW,
Obama’s web traffic. http://www.alexa.com/data/details/traffic_details/barackobama.com
Traffic is at it’s lowest since its initial surge in the beginning of January. In fairness, it is coming down from the second of two peaks; one right at or around the bid day of Feb 5th, and another right in early June when he cinched the nomination. But still, it hasn’t been this low ever if you rule out the fact that it started at 0 and had to work it’s way up to something.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:01 pm
Speaking of this, I read somewhere that someone had the idea that sice Obama opted out of public financing, McCain should be able to get his share of the pie and have 170 million to spend instead of the 85 million he will have. I think that’s a good idea. If Obama isn’t going to spend it and the money is already there, it should go to McCain.
Also, money is way overrated. Romney and Giuliani vastly outraised McCain. Obama outraised and outspent Clinton by anywhere from 3-1 to 5-1 in OH, PA, TX, etc… and he still lost in all of them and lost overall from Feb 19th on. It was the automatic 95% of the black vote that even kept him remotely competitive the final 3 months of the campaign.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
#11,
A story on Tuesday in the Wall Street Journal reminds us that plenty of Clinton backers are not yet happy campers. They want to nominate their candidate as the world watches and cast 1,600 votes, as a powerful reminder that Obama’s victory was floss-thin. - Time
July 9th, 2008 at 1:10 pm
How does Obama reverse himself again?
He’ll be soon trying to take credit for all the successes now coming out of Iraq. Just wait, it’ll happen..
July 9th, 2008 at 1:18 pm
Freaking Awesome.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kristen-breitweiser/oh-yes-she-can_b_111627.html
From the Huffington Post, of all places. An article about how Obama is not a different kind of politician! Enough Clinton voters are still up for grabs folks.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:23 pm
#16, I am not sure Obama is doing his base any favors with his “new” Iraq position. Obama would not have been the nominee without Move-on.
In the previous months (Feb to April), the Obama camp were always the first to release their monthly financials. usually within 24 hours of filing. Again this month, we are over a week in, and nothing.
Remember, not only does Obama have to match McCain dollar for dollar between now and the Conventions, he also has to save $ for the post-convention election, which McCain already has a head start on ($84.5 million of funding).
Of course, this does not include the $50 million advantage McCain/RNC had over Obama/DNC by the end of May. Can Obama/DNC close the $135 million gap in the next 7 weeks? Nope!
July 9th, 2008 at 1:26 pm
cwpete #16 is right. If Obama is elected POTUS, he will take credit for ending the War in Iraq. Senator McCain and other advocates of the surge will get no credit. Expect something like, “I had the foresight to know that invading Iraq was a mistake. Then I was able to devise a strategy to withdraw our troops in a safe, orderly manner”.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:29 pm
Bob #18 “Of course, this does not include the $50 million advantage McCain/RNC had over Obama/DNC by the end of May. Can Obama/DNC close the $135 million gap in the next 7 weeks? Nope!”
You are probably correct. I have been wondering if Obama’s well might run dry as many supporters feel that they have given as much as they wish, with much of it used to defeat Hillary.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:40 pm
Is there any way to know how many Republicans gave to Obama to help him defeat Hillary? That might make an interesting line graph.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:45 pm
“The entire Obama movement is essentially one, giant, well-financed fad.”
It took, what, 8 months for Vanilla Ice to go from unknown to super star, to laughing stock?
Fickle indeed.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:48 pm
#17
This is huge as our good friend (Mar)Kos has aimed at Obama for reversals and moving to the center as has Puffington.
People who would donate a few bucks read these things or hear about them and decide not to pull the trigger
Ultimately we won’t know where this race is until about July 22-25. That’s when we’ll have June fundraising numbers, we’ll have GDP 2nd Qtr. numbers to determine if we are in or headed for recession, we’ll see how many Hillary voters have come home to Barack with 6 weeks to mull over the loss, and it should be before either VP is announced so we can judge each candidate alone.
July 9th, 2008 at 2:13 pm
Gallup today.
Obama 46% to McCain 44%.
July 9th, 2008 at 2:29 pm
Barack Obama spent the most on payroll last year/07 ($20.3 million). Imagine what he is spending now! He will probably spend that in the next 4 months.
July 9th, 2008 at 2:48 pm
> “How much money is needed to fund a campaign that has 150 paid staffers in Missouri anyhow?!”
If they average $30k/year and receive no benefits as temporary employees (though of course the left regularly criticizes businesses for failure to provide benefits to temps and part-timers), then the cost is $2500/mo x 150 = $375,000/mo in Missouri. If all states are staffed similarly relative to population, then the cost is 50x (Missouri is just under 2% of the population): $375k x 50 = $18.75mil/mo, or almost everything Obama is bringing in.
Since MO is a key swing state, others are probably less fully staffed, but if the average is half of the Missouri level, it’s still costing close to $10mil/mo for staffing.
Good argument against a fifty-state campaign.
July 9th, 2008 at 2:55 pm
#26.
Uhm…..Phones, phone lines, PC’s, coffee, etc, etc, etc….and you have to at least pay insurance.
July 9th, 2008 at 3:03 pm
#27: Of course there are tremendous additional expenses — I was just talking the actual salary costs (at a fairly minimal level). Most companies figure the cost of staffing is salary plus at least 35%-40% (though that includes benefits).
“and you have to at least pay insurance”
I’m not sure that’s true, if you’re referring to health insurance. It’s required only in states where Romney was governor, I think.
July 9th, 2008 at 3:03 pm
There have been an awful lot of questions about Barack’s internet fundraising.
Stories of stolen credit cards in the UK being used to donate to Obama.
Rumors of a ton of donations coming in from Middle Eastern countries.
Speculation about a high number of donors with no ZIP codes…where were they really?
Maybe it was all a vast right-wing conspiracy to get rid of the Clintons…heh heh.
July 9th, 2008 at 3:31 pm
#17 and #23. I have read a lot of the posts at PUMAPAC.org and NoQuarters and it’s my perception that their movement is becoming less about Hillary and more about doing what is right for the country — NO OBAMA.
I don’t think their plans will change if Obama chooses Hillary as his VP. Do you know that they plan on sending buses to Denver full of PUMAs to demonstrate at the convention?
To me it is a no-brainer for McCain to choose a woman VP. And of all the women who have been discussed, Sarah Palin has the biggest Wow factor and she connects with the greatest amount of people.
I think the Hillary supporters will open up their pocketbooks for McCain if Sarah is on his ticket.
July 9th, 2008 at 3:34 pm
Sorry, hear me, its not going to happen. Identity politics is for the other party. McCain has consistently said he will choose some wh is ready to step into the role, and Sarah obviously is not at this time. She should be in the future though, and that will be great.
July 9th, 2008 at 3:35 pm
This is speculation, right? If it’s true and the story plays out the right way, this could seriously undermine faith in Obama’s good judgment. This would be wrong time to begin shedding staff and un- or under-funding publicized activities.
But a funding shortfall would be consistent with Obama’s character as I understand it, i.e. his proclivity for breath-taking grandiosity. Imagine a 1 term senator, not-yet-elected head-of-state wanting to deliver an address at the Brandenburg Gate. What the hell was he thinking? Next he’ll want to deliver a homily at St. Peter’s Basilica wearing a jeweled miter, or he’ll want to hoist his bogus presidential seal aloft on the next shuttle mission and declare himself president of the universe–all in advance of actually being elected president here, now, on earth.
July 9th, 2008 at 3:42 pm
How can any one person have ALL the experience needed to step into the role from day one? McCain sure as hell doesn’t. He has never managed anything bigger than his office staff, yet were willing to trust him to manage our federal government and cross our fingers that he is a quick learner.
July 9th, 2008 at 3:46 pm
He puts someone in that compliments his weaknesses.
July 9th, 2008 at 3:50 pm
Sanford!
July 9th, 2008 at 4:01 pm
Romney is the obvious choice. Sanford will be ok if he chooses him though.
July 9th, 2008 at 4:04 pm
Sorry, Illinoisguy, but you can’t argue it both ways.
If McCain chooses someone who compliments his weaknesses, yet has none, or only some, of his strengths, how could this person be ready to step into the role of the presidency should McCain die?
July 9th, 2008 at 4:10 pm
Post-it notes don’t grow on trees you know. Though you could probably stick them on a tree and they would look like leaves. Square ones.
July 9th, 2008 at 5:59 pm
hearmeroar,
actually mccain spent 22 years in the navy, retiring as a captain and choosing to run for office rather then be promoted to rear admiral. during that career he held one of the navy’s largest commands. combine that with a very successful legislative record as an influential senator, and he clearly has the experience to be president, underscored when compared to obama’s horrid resume.
July 9th, 2008 at 6:25 pm
#38. Touche. But I think there are 50 governors who would argue that there is a difference between being a senator, even an influential senator, and being a governor.
July 10th, 2008 at 12:29 am
There is another point to consider. Obama’s donor base give small amounts mainly because that is all they could afford. Well, since gas prices and food prices are so much higher than they were a year ago, if these college students and young people–who probably have huge student loans, and massive credit card debt and God knows what else–may not have the money to give him. They gave what they could because they can’t afford 2300 dollars. So, if your whole base is predicated on giving lots of small amounts, that may backfire when they have to choose between filling up their gas tank and eating versus giving 100 dollars to Obama.
July 11th, 2008 at 4:14 am
[...] a couple of conservative bloggers are revising that projection down. [...]