The Candidates
The Wall Street Journal reports (link via Talking Points Memo) that the Obama Campaign raised approx $30 million in June, a figure that an Obama spokesman calls “way off the mark”:
“The Wall Street Journal report of our fundraising numbers is way off the mark. It appears that after 18 months, some in the press still haven’t realized that anyone who is talking about numbers doesn’t know what our numbers are.”
So this can mean two things: either they blew away the $30 million figure (which I find highly unlikely), or this is the beginning of Team Obama’s dialing down of expectations regarding fundraising for the rest of the campaign.
Greg Sargent (for TPM) nails the significance of this all:
But here’s the cold, hard math: The Obama campaign wants to raise at least $300 million, and in order to do this he has to haul in an average of at least $50 million a month. If the Journal’s number is right, this obviously didn’t happen in June.
So it seems that Team Obama has built a massive national campaign (150 paid staffers in MO alone) under the expectation of raising $50 million a month. If the money is not coming in at this rate, they will have to tear down existing structure or scrap much of their planned national apparatus.
John McCain could live to fight another day when he had to gut his national campaign in the Summer of 2007. The consequences of a late summer 2008 tear down may be quite different for Sen. Obama.
H/T- Sampo
July 11th, 2008 at 12:49 pm
thanks for the h/t Kavon! I think that’s my first one! but the obama camp is saying that figure is “way off”.
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/07/obama_campaign_slams_story_rep.php
July 11th, 2008 at 12:50 pm
Sampo,
I think I addressed that in the 2nd paragraph.
July 11th, 2008 at 12:51 pm
sorry
July 11th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
No problemo
July 11th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
so are we really thinking he raised less? according to them ‘way’ less?
i think if he had raised more then 30 they would have gotten it out there don’t you?
July 11th, 2008 at 1:01 pm
5-That would make sense to me. I’ll take anything under 22.
July 11th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
The questions we should all be asking is twofold:
Why do we not know Obama’s June total yet; and what is the most likely explanation for why they have not been released?
July 11th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
Can somebody clarify this for me: as Obama turns down the $84M block grant, to make it worth the while he will have to earn >$84M between August 28th and November 4th, plus any general election earmarked funds he will have already raised by that point? If so, that means >$84M in approx. 2.2 months = > approx. $38M a month in the general election minus [whatever amount already earmarked for the general election / 2.2]? Is that how it works?
July 11th, 2008 at 1:09 pm
I really think Obama raised more than 30 million. I personally think they’re delaying their numbers because they want to hide their burn rate. Obama’s campaign will take a HUGE PR hit if/when they start laying off staff for financial reasons.
July 11th, 2008 at 1:17 pm
The questions we should all be asking is twofold:
Why do we not know Obama’s June total yet; and what is the most likely explanation for why they have not been released?
Negative spin: they’re waiting to release it because it’s embarrassingly low.
Positive spin: they’re just not finished counting it yet.
Take your pick.
July 11th, 2008 at 1:28 pm
Everyone is missing a key point. How much of the $ is going to the DNC and how much of it is going to the Obama fund? McCain’s numbers have been more impressive as he has been redirecting more than half to the RNC victory fund.
Even if Obama campaign releases a number of #40 million, it does not mean much if the DNC only raised $8 million.
I agree with Sampo, the cash on hand is what is important know. If Obama had a lot of cash on hand, he would not be outspent 3/1 on ad’s.
July 11th, 2008 at 1:45 pm
I think Obama was outspent 3:1 in certain states, not overall.
July 11th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
off topic up date on vp just heard on fox news that obama campaign has started vp pocess more and asked for info for vp on chris dodd ?
July 11th, 2008 at 2:05 pm
This could be similar to McCain’s meltdown last summer when he planned for a much larger amount of cash than he actually got.
July 11th, 2008 at 2:30 pm
#14, correct.
This is what happened to Gore in 2000. Obama requires a $60 million dollar month.
July 11th, 2008 at 2:39 pm
#13: If Obama picks Dodd, he’s not as savvy as I thought. Obama’s move to the center is still something other than credible. He needs to do what Gore did and pick a running mate to his right. Dodd voted against FISA. He should pick Napolitano, Sebelius, Rendell, Bayh, or Biden.
July 11th, 2008 at 2:48 pm
Dodd could also be tied up with sweetheart deals from Countrywide… dumb pick for Obama after he dumped Jim Johnson for similar charges.
July 11th, 2008 at 2:50 pm
I guess this means the Obama Campign plan of sponsering a Nascar next month could go out the window.
July 11th, 2008 at 2:50 pm
BTW, Gallup has Obama up 48-42 over McCain (up from 46-43 yesterday).
July 11th, 2008 at 2:54 pm
Obama pulls away durning the weekend polls in Gallup and McCain catches back up durning the week.
July 11th, 2008 at 3:53 pm
OK, this is starting to creep me out. why is the DNC spending the day bragging about how much they will spend on advertising ($35m) when obama is overdue in releasing his fund raising numbers? something’s up.
July 11th, 2008 at 4:10 pm
Sampo, you thinking maybe they have huge numbers?
July 11th, 2008 at 4:12 pm
Obama’s not overdue in releasing his numbers… he has till the 20th I think.
July 11th, 2008 at 4:27 pm
Actually, Obama has till the 21st, because the 20th is a Sunday. Just a little technicality in the rules. But, if he wants to hide something, look for his numbers on Friday or sometime during the weekend (next week).
July 11th, 2008 at 5:32 pm
i realize obama isnt legally overdue. he’s just overdue compared to previous months.
July 11th, 2008 at 9:41 pm
I think the importance of the money race can be overstated. Money is obviously important, but money alone doesn’t get you far (ask Rudy and Mitt).
That said, if Obama’s fund-raising is declining, it is interesting as an indicator of declining enthusiasm among his supporters.
Note the “if”.