The Candidates
Rasmussen Daily General Election Tracking Poll
- John McCain 43%
- Barack Obama 43%
With Leaners
- Barack Obama 47%
- John McCain 46%
Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)
- John McCain 56% / 41% (+15%)
- Barack Obama 54% / 44% (+10%)
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters–is +/- 2 percentage points.
Inside the numbers…
Today is the first time that McCain’s support has moved above 45% since Obama clinched the nomination on June 3. It’s also the first time the candidates have been tied since Obama clinched the Democratic nomination.
McCain earns favorable ratings from 32% of Democrats while Obama is viewed favorably by 22% of Republicans. Among unaffiliated voters, McCain is viewed favorably by 58%, Obama by 54%.
July 12th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
Now McCain just needs to improve in the battle ground states.
July 12th, 2008 at 12:16 pm
If McCain can keep it close, the individual state polling will follow suit within the next few weeks. Those swing state polls that showed Barry ahead in OH, VA, CO etc. were conducted when McCain was behind by a greater amount nationally. So if McCain can just keep it within a couple points his state-by-state numbers will improve.
July 12th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
I felt this was inevitable. I think we’ll win.
July 12th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
I guess this has to do with McCain’s favorable rating as he went from +10 to +15 in three days. This I highly doubt considering what has happened in the last few days. Unless of course, his bump in the polls is contributed by voters who put national security first, in which case, the Iranian missile test boosted McCains favorability. Because Gallup has not followed this trajectory for McCain over the last few days (though today’s poll has him at +4, compared to +6 yesterday), I need to wait a little longer to see if McCain can at least keep this tied, if not come into the lead.
July 12th, 2008 at 12:34 pm
You have a point Adam, with the national race essentially tied, mathematically, we must be at least competitive in the swing states.
July 12th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
Being realistic is a key, so people will not be disappointed. You have one poll that shows McCain and Obama tied a Gallup poll showed this for a day too. I think we all know that McCain is behind the state polls show that. Being confident is fine but being realistic is important. McCain and Obama are tied in this poll but where did the lead that Obama had in this poll go? Did it go for McCain or to the undecided col or I will sit this one out col………it went to both col. Instead of changing their minds and saying, I will vote for McCain over Obama it went to none of the above. I agree with # 4 Rick’s assessment on this. The climate for the GOP is bad right now and the economy and things will probably not get any better. Then there is the Bush factor. I want to ask this question, this is a republican website correct. Then why isn’t there a picture of the reigning president on this site? If this site can put his picture on here because they feel it will make McCain lose, that is a guess then what is McCain going to do about him. He needs to figure that out or he will not win.
July 12th, 2008 at 1:08 pm
The swing states have to be closer, because of their heavy populations.
July 12th, 2008 at 1:19 pm
New Research 2000 Poll is showing Obama ahead by 5 in Missouri according to realclearpolitics website, but this is good news for McCain and i think he will continue to rise hopefully.
July 12th, 2008 at 1:25 pm
It’s close. On the edge of a knife as they would say in the Lord of the Rings.
July 12th, 2008 at 1:46 pm
#6. Far be it for me to speak for the managers of this site, but I believe that the reason President Bush’s picture is not on this site is because it was initially launched as a site to follow the Republican nomination process, hence the pics and bios of all the former candidates, and now has morphed to focus on the general election, which obviously has nothing to do with President Bush; unless one is a disciple of the Obamassiah trying to paint McCain as Bush III.
July 12th, 2008 at 3:33 pm
Yabba Dabba Doo!!!
It’s a tie ball game. We can win this thing.
I am a moderate former Dem so I especially feel that it is my duty to get McCain elected. He has compromised over the years. I know that true conservatives don’t like him for it. I do though. I am going to do what I can in the Burgh.
I do wish he hadn’t committed that Steeler faux pas. Hopefully, it won’t stick.
July 12th, 2008 at 7:18 pm
I totally agree with #11, except I still consider myself a moderate Indy-Dem. I know the people on this site don’t want to hear it, but I really, really want him to win so that the Republican party trends more in his direction. Because of this I have given his campaign and the RNC more than I can really afford and am working on other non-Republicans to vote for him in the fall. I feel I owe it to McCain.
July 12th, 2008 at 7:36 pm
I think ACT Blog just had a stroke. Don’t mention the Republican Party moving in McCain’s direction- some people get testy about it.
McCain’s performance has slowly been increasing in swing states. Missouri, Florida, and North Carolina are pretty solid red. Ohio and Virginia are coming back. We need Colorado. It’s ripe for the picking and it puts us over the top.
July 12th, 2008 at 8:01 pm
Look, the Dems have abandoned the moderates. The GOP is all we have. It is a center right country. I personally hope for Pres. McCain and a Dem congress so not all that much gets done.
July 12th, 2008 at 8:31 pm
# 14
I was just curious, why would you not want for things to get done? I for one am tired of paying 4 bucks a gallon for gas, DC wasting our tax dollars on crap that we don´t need or doesn´t work, ETC.
July 13th, 2008 at 3:41 am
When neither party dominates, either compromises have to be found or the markets can take care of things. I think the founders meant for any change to be slow and deliberate.
July 13th, 2008 at 10:49 am
My son, a career Coastguardsman, just gave me an encouraging assessment in indicating that there is a perceptible shift away from Obama among his peers in uniform as they come to appreciate that he is simply not up to the job of president, especially in terms of homeland security. I am a lifelong Democrat who will be voting for McCain for the same reason. The thought of Obama’s ascendancy to the office frightens me profoundly.