GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
By Mike DeVine, Legal Editor for The Minority Report and The HinzSight Report
____________________________________________________________________________________
Cockstradamus, who predicted the accelerated pull-out, now crows: Victory in Iraq will help McCain and the GOP
Imagine that? Winning a war is a political plus to those that won it!
Victory in Iraq is ours (see July 13 below), and, as predicted by Cockstradamus weeks ago, the victory will be declared before the November election.
Rooster crowing from from June 22
Accelerated troop level reductions will be announced based on success. For many moons now, this announcer of dawns has been nagged by an idea that dawned on me after Iraq’s security forces started winning battles on their own against Sunni-backed al Qaeda, Shia militias and even Iranian backed militias. We may be able to declare victory in Iraq very soon and announce accelerated withdrawals of victorious troops whose services are no longer required due to their success. I have always maintained that, while I want to maintain a major presence in Iraq, much like we did in Europe and the Pacific after WWII and Korea, it is vitally important that at some point there be an acknowledgement that we have won the Battle of Iraq and that any withdrawals be due to and seen as a result of our victory over the al Qaeda, radical terrorists, and Iran. In discussions with people that didn’t favor the war but who now want the USA to win, I found myself thinking to myself that my mantra of opposing troop reductions could and should soon yield to the most important mantra: victory.
The Bush administration is considering the withdrawal of additional combat forces from Iraq beginning in September, according to administration and military officials, raising the prospect of a far more ambitious plan than expected only months ago. Such a withdrawal would be a striking reversal from the nadir of the war in 2006 and 2007… Even as the two candidates argue over the wisdom of the war and keeping American troops there, security in Iraq has improved vastly, as has the confidence of Iraq’s government and military and police, raising the prospect of additional reductions that were barely conceivable a year ago. While officials caution that the relative calm is fragile, violence and attacks on American-led forces have dropped to the lowest levels since early 2004. “As the Iraqi security forces get stronger and get better, then we will be able to continue drawing down our troops in the future,” Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said in Fort Lewis, Washington State, on Tuesday. “And I think that this transition of control and of responsibility, primary responsibility for security is a process that’s already well under way and based on everything that I’m hearing will be able to continue.” General David Petraeus, the American commander in Iraq, has already begun the review of security and troop levels. He and Bush promised in April that such a review would take place. Petraeus is expected to be more cautious than some policy makers in the administration and at the Pentagon might like. The officials, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were discussing military planning, said he was more likely to recommend a smaller reduction, but still a withdrawal. One senior administration official cautioned that the president, who will have the final say, would be reluctant to endorse deep or rapid reductions if they jeopardized his goal of establishing a stable and democratic government in Baghdad.
When I wrote my June 22 forecast, questions were raised as to who, in the Presidential and congressional campaigns, would be helped. On June 22, I wrote:
the long list of accomplishments that lead inevitably to my pre-Election Day 2008 expectations: 1. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki sent the Iraqi army into Basra. It achieved in a few weeks what the British had failed to do in four years: take the city, drive out the Mahdi Army and seize the ports from Iranian-backed militias. 2. When Mahdi fighters rose up in support of their Basra brethren, the Iraqi army at Maliki’s direction confronted them and prevailed in every town — Najaf, Karbala, Hilla, Kut, Nasiriyah and Diwaniyah — from Basra to Baghdad. 3. Without any American ground forces, the Iraqi army entered and occupied Sadr City, the Mahdi Army stronghold. 4. Maliki flew to Mosul, directing a joint Iraqi-U.S. offensive against the last redoubt of al-Qaeda, which had already been driven out of Anbar, Baghdad and Diyala provinces. 5. The Iraqi parliament enacted a de-Baathification law, a major Democratic benchmark for political reconciliation. 6. Parliament also passed the other reconciliation benchmarks — a pension law, an amnesty law, and a provincial elections and powers law. Oil revenue is being distributed to the provinces through the annual budget. 7. With Maliki having demonstrated that he would fight not just Sunni insurgents (e.g., in Mosul) but Shiite militias (e.g., the Mahdi Army), the Sunni parliamentary bloc began negotiations to join the Shiite-led government. (The final sticking point is a squabble over a sixth cabinet position.)
My June 22 article also cites a Frank Rich column that evidences fears on the left that America will be seen as having won the Iraq War before November, yet many conservative nervous nellies still ponder that victory could hurt John McCain.
Poppycock.
When I say that “we” have won the war, I mean the United States of America, but it is the left and most of the Democratic Party that has called this Bushlied’s War. They opposed funding when they were in the minority during the stay the course years that won the trust of the Iraqis as well as the surge McCain had long called for that tipped the balance.
Obama brags that he opposed the war while in Kindergarten, I mean the Iliinois State Legislature and has opposed troop funding. The words “win” or “success” in Iraq never cross his lips.
Take heart my friends, not only will America benefit from victory, but so will those that worked to acheive it, and that is Joe Lieberman, President Bush, John McCain and most all Republicans sans Chuck Hagel.
Cockstradamus has not yet determined whn Iran will be bombed or McCain’s margin of victory. Stay tuned.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Mike DeVine’s Charlotte Observer columns
Legal Editor for The Minority and HinzSight Reports
“The way to stop discrimination on the basis of race is to stop discriminating on the basis of race.” - The Chief Justice
“One man with courage makes a majority.” - Andrew Jackson
July 13th, 2008 at 11:15 am
I would agree if we were going to have a victory parade down Penn Ave in Oct. But we aren’t. Nor is anyone foolish enough to proclaim “we won,” although McCain frequently says “we are winning, my friends.” Without that definitive end Americans will understand that we have troops in Iraq at substantial cost.
July 13th, 2008 at 11:21 am
IMO, if troops start coming home before the elction, I think that sort of diminishes Obama’s argument of ending the war and bringing the roops home. That and judgment and change have been the themese of his campaign. If the troops come home, and it looks like Iraq is really beginning to stand on its own and the elections this fall go well (by that I mean mass voter turnout like in January of 2005), then I feel that voters may not see Obama’s message as soemthing that is all that new. Bush and McCain will have beaten him to it and can claim that success enabled them to begin the draw down. It puts the surge and the whole war back in the top 3 issues and highlights a very succesful effort on the part of the Bush Administration and reminds people that John McCain’s risky support and his judgement of the surge and the war in itself was correct. It gives the impression that he is a man of good judgement and unwavering determination when compaed to Obama’s 17 or so flip flops.
July 13th, 2008 at 11:23 am
#1 and 2 It all brings home the fact that Obama is weak on defense. This is a loser in American politics. EVERY TIME!
July 13th, 2008 at 11:33 am
Obama has been calling for a timetable so if Bush and Maliki agree to one that makes Obama’s judgment correct. I don’t have to speculate; he has already made this argument and this morning that is how the media has been playing it.
July 13th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
#4 No. Obama has been calling for a defeat retreat for many years. Bush, McCain and most Americans have been calling for victory. Of course, after victory, one reduces troops. I’ll never forget a andid Murtha moment when he said he “feared that our eventual withdrawal be seen as a success.” Can you imagine?
What we are witnessing is the defeat of al qaeda and the near defeat of the sunni and Iran backed insurrgents to a levl where the American trained mixed Iraqi army can defeat them and has been in battles, some without American help.
No, you don’t have to speculate on how libs are spinning it now. But when the troops come home to victory, praising Bush and McCain, in Sept-Nov, well
pictures will tell the truth.
Obama wanted a timetable NO MATTER WHAT.
Well, what we get as the USA is victory, a word Obama never uses.
Americans like to win.
July 13th, 2008 at 12:42 pm
Winning a war is a political plus
Agreed; provided that is the perception of the electorate.
Back on February 25, when asked what will happen if he can’t convince the American public that the war in Iraq is succeeding, McCain, speaking most candidly aboard the Straight Talk Express, said: “Then I lose…I don’t think there’s any doubt that how they judge Iraq will have a direct relation to their judgment of me. My support of the surge. Clearly, I am tied to it to a large degree.”
The recently released Pew poll asked:
How well is the U.S. military effort in Iraq going?
Very well 10%
Fairly well 34%
Not too well 31%
Not at all well 21%
The preponderance of evidence burden has certainly been met, and yet over 50 percent of the American people remain grossly uninformed or willfully ignorant. And, you can rest assured, that minimum threshold will not suffice. Senator McCain, unfair as it is, will have to convince the biased jury that is the mainstream media, by demonstrating beyond a reasonable doubt that “victory in Iraq is ours.”
On that front, zero progress has been made since the surge commenced. In March 2007, the percentage of those who said the U.S. military effort in Iraq is going very well was also 10%. Sixteen months ago, another 30 percent thought the effort was going fairly well. In fact, an argument can be made that it is the anti-war press who have been succeeding in their propaganda battle against the stubborn facts on the ground in Iraq. A little over four months ago, 48 percent felt the military effort was going very/fairly well (in comparison, that number, today, has fallen to 44 percent).
In an interview with the New York Times, that appears in today’s paper, McCain was asked:
Q: What I used to hear from the Clinton people and your own supporters now that there is sense of, not bias, but the sense of excitement resulting in more positive stories about him and more negative stories about her and now about you.
McCain: No, we’ve got 116 days I believe it is, and I’ve got to spend my time in those 116 days, how can I better communicate with these people, how can I learn more about what’s going on in the stock market today, what can I – John Taylor’s an economist – how can I better shape my economic message. It’s just a waste of time to worry about whether Michael Cooper is a jerk or not. We all know that he’s a jerk. Everybody knows that. Ask the other journalists on the bus. Ask anybody. So I just don’t, not only don’t do it, I’ve learned long ago that you’ve got to, you’ve just got to keep working and do the best you can, and at the end of the day rely on the good judgment of the American people.’
Just moment later in the interview, McCain, however, fessed up, saying “I don’t expect to be a great communicator.”
While his “strong right arm,” Rudy Giuliani, is ten times the communicator McCain is, and has always been a strong supporter of the surge (unlike Romney and Ridge who went wobbly when conditions were most perilous), I am of the belief that this essential task of educating the public of the indisputable progress in Iraq should rest upon the shoulders of the man who, ironically, was told ten months ago that the reports he provided to the Senate “require the willing suspension of disbelief.”
General David Petraeus, who was confirmed last week by the Senate in a near-unanimous 95-2 vote as the top commander in the Middle East, has earned the respect of even the most partisan hacks on the Democratic side of the aisle. If it is vital to McCain’s candidacy to improve the voters’ perception of the stabilizing situation in Iraq, then he may have no choice but to select as running mate the American hero whose credibility could never again be called into question.
July 13th, 2008 at 1:18 pm
Aron, thanks for the heads up about the interview. A link would have been great.
Selecting Patraeus would be a colosal mistake. One, he is actually needed in the middle east. Two, he is not a politician and while he can answer military questions, can he answer questions about housing, birth control, cap and trade, medicare? And third, why reinforce a military message? Picking a general is like saying we are going to war with someone else.
From my vantage point, Huntsman is far better. The man looks like a president. He’s not only gorgeous but intelligent and successful.
July 13th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
Paulette,
Here you go…
The Times Interviews John McCain
why reinforce a military message?
Please don’t shoot the messenger. I’m just passing along relevant facts you might want to consider.
Lindsey Graham: “You know, I don’t have a closer friend in the Senate than John McCain. I’m just telling you that when it comes time to pick a vice president, that the smart money I think would be trying to add to the national security — you know, reinforce that aspect of the ticket.”
John McCain: “There’s nobody I trust more than Lindsey Graham. I’m honored to have him travel with me and give me the counsel I need.”
McCain then went on to praise Graham’s “excellent political instincts” and credited the senator from the Palmetto State with helping him win South Carolina’s primary, a crucial victory that made McCain the GOP frontrunner.
July 13th, 2008 at 1:50 pm
Yup, there’s no more surefire way to get conservatives excitd and onboard then to for McCain to say “There’s nobody I trust more than Lindsey Graham”.
Obama would run an ad with that and McCain would drop a few pts in a matter of days
July 13th, 2008 at 1:53 pm
Aron,
I just read the interview. I must say I love the longer interviews instead of the stupid stuff we get on tv (although I watched Obama today on that Fareed guy’s show and I enjoyed it because it too was comprehensive).
McCain said a couple things that made me wonder about him. He said of his campaign, “we are a collective leadership.” When I hear collective I think Soviets. He also said the gov’t has to take care of people who can’t take care of themselves. I think that the percentage of the population that falls in that group is so small as to be unimportant. He seems to envision a larger population of such people.
Finally, he said he doesn’t email and needs help getting online. I like people to tell the truth, but that was one time he should have lied.
July 13th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
#9 - if we really want to fire up the three legged stool conservatives we can hang onto McCain’s recent statement “nobody represents me better today than Mitt Romney”. You talk about putting vim, vigor,and vitality into a race, just let him put Mitt on the ticket.
July 13th, 2008 at 2:19 pm
American soldiers are heroes. I am really grateful to them. I hope they are received as such, even in the warped political environment that currently exists.
July 13th, 2008 at 2:20 pm
#6 The pictures of the troops coming home as victors in Sept-Nov will be seen and understood and I think it would be anyway given the 527 ads and given the facts. They get thru eventually and a presidential campaign focuses the mind.
been there
July 13th, 2008 at 5:50 pm
#13 Need tons of people at the airports, holding big signs saying “Thank you for the surge John McCain” or wrods to that effect.
July 13th, 2008 at 8:47 pm
“Cockstradamus” = <3