The Candidates
Patrick Ruffini has penned an interesting post handicapping the veepstakes on both sides:
For John McCain, is there anyone other than Tim Pawlenty right now? He has to be considered a favorite as prohibitive as John Edwards was in 2004 for the Dems. Key swing state. Young. Working class. Articulate. McCain loyalist. No scandals. And conservative objections to him are relatively low-grade, and not in the same orb as Charlie Crist or Tom Ridge. He can also package his deviations from conservatism as a having a compelling narrative about the future of the party (e.g. Sam’s Club Republicanism).
For Obama, I was right up there in thinking that Wesley Clark was the natural choice: military experience + Clintonista. But now that that’s been scrambled, who’s left? My top names are Evan Bayh and Kathleen Sebelius, with maybe Tim Kaine or Brian Schweitzer as outliers.
I don’t think Obama will pick Clinton — that would be a sign of weakness and that he “needs” her. The polls right now don’t bear that out. But to avoid grumbling from the less than helpful Clinton camp, I think he has to at least pick a Clinton supporter.
Evan Bayh is problematic because he’s not that liberal, and he’d cause grumbling with the netroots. Bayh would be a choice patterned after Al Gore: next state over, reinforces rather than “balances” the ticket, long-term player in the party.
Sebelius was neutral in the primary, but would satisfy the Clintonian impetus to have a woman on the ticket. She’s red state and telegenic, reinforcing the narrative that Obama expands the map.
Tim Kaine is a straight play for Virginia, though I think it’s pretty unlikely: early Obama supporter and the wandering eyebrow would be Quayle Potatoe for the next four years of Stewart and Colbert.
Brian Schweitzer reinforces that play for red states and the desire for a different kind of Democrat. But Montana is pretty remote in most Americans’ minds, and Sebelius reinforces that same message with “Kansas values.”
I would guess Romney or Pawlenty for McCain at this point, yet both seem to be denying that they’re being vetted. I still wouldn’t be surprised if McCain picks someone none of us are expecting.
I would add Biden and Rendell to Patrick’s list of Obama’s potential veeps. Rendell, like Bayh and Sebelius, has enough centrist street cred that he can pull the ticket to the right and try to grab more votes in the center. Biden would add gravitas to the ticket, which Obama needs as well, and which is why the pick will almost certainly not be Kaine.
I think Obama should go with the most conservative running mate possible. People are currently confused about Obama’s political identity. He ran as a happy-warrior liberal in the primaries, and now appears to be a Clintonian centrist. Obama was able to use his charm to avoid lots of talk about policy in the primaries, which now appears to have been a calculated strategy to minimize the flip-flops when Obama donned full Nixon jacket and ran hard to the center in the general. What Obama needs to do now is convince voters that the old Obama was the illusion and that the new, centrist Obama is the real one. Like Gore in 2000, Obama needs his Lieberman. He needs a running mate to his right. It would be beneficial if he could actually make a choice that is to the right of McCain on some issues. I’ve suggested Napolitano of Arizona, but she seems to have some personal life issues that would pose a problem for a national campaign. And Bill Richardson is the wrong demographic; to put it bluntly, Obama needs a white guy or gal on the ticket. But both of those governors have enacted middle class tax cuts and would reinforce Obama’s own supposed plans to cut taxes on the middle class (while raising them on upper income folks), in contrast to John McCain’s conventional Republican campaign of promising Kudlow-style tax rates and to balance the budget all in a single bound (a stale strategy that no one believes anymore).
Ultimately though, if Obama can’t pick the Southwesterners, he should go with a centrist Democrat like Sebelius, Rendell, or Bayh. I actually think this is more important than selecting a Biden or a Clark with security creds, as a veep who seems too much like Cheney will make Obama look smaller, just as a Bobby Jindal would only serve to emphasize McCain’s age.
July 13th, 2008 at 10:04 am
“I would guess Romney or Pawlenty for McCain at this point, yet both seem to be denying that they’re being vetted.”
I long figured that Romney and Pawlenty would be the final two, and I still think Romney is at the top, but I don’t think Pawlenty is in it. He recently denied being vetted, and, while Romney has done the same, I’m not sure I believe Mitt. I believe that he probably hasn’t been approached directly by the vetters, but that is probably because it would set off far too many red flags in the media. In any case, there is remarkably little about Romney that needs vetted, his history, views, experience, etc. were all went over with a fine-toothed comb. I think McCain is personally getting a feel for having Romney on the ticket - notice how many times they have either appeared together, or Romney on McCain’s behalf.
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“I think Obama should go with the most conservative running mate possible. People are currently confused about Obama’s political identity. He ran as a happy-warrior liberal in the primaries, and now appears to be a Clintonian centrist…”
…and picking a more Conservative Veep would only make him look less principled, not because its unusual to have a balanced ticket, but because it would make his ideological stance even less certain. Because of his weather-vain-like qualities, Obama needs to pick a moderate to far leftist - unless he wants to (and I don’t think he does) seriously clarify and stick by a firm set of positions.
July 13th, 2008 at 10:27 am
I have to agree with #1. For Romney to say no one is vetting him is a bit disingenuous. Romney’s record has already been given the fine-tooth-comb treatment by multiple parties. The result? Nobody found anything. He is by the far the most clean serious candidate for President we’ve had since forever. That was even used against him, if you recall. How many times did we read articles talking about how he was too perfect?
So the fact Romney’s record isn’t getting scrutinized at the present time really doesn’t mean a whole lot one way or the other.
July 13th, 2008 at 10:38 am
Romney is the best choice he might just help get a Michigan and Colorado win. Pawlenty cant help enough to win in his state or most other states.
July 13th, 2008 at 10:52 am
There are almost the EXACT same problems (from a conservative perspective) with Pawlenty as there are with Crist, contrary to Ruffini. Both are ‘maverick’ types who have no problem straying from conservative orthodoxy frequently and both have drunk the MMGW koolaid. If anything, Crist is a bit less objectionable to conservatives because at least he has come around on off-shore drilling while Pawlenty is busy raising Minnesota utility rates by mandating more wind and ethanol.
July 13th, 2008 at 11:02 am
Sanford on CNN this morning said he wasn’t being vetted either. He also was a bit bumbling even though he is usually articulate. Also, Sebelius endorsed Obama early in the primary. They are actually good friends.
The needs/wants of the nominees are firming up as we get a feel for what the landscape will look like in November. A stable Iraq and turbulent economy makes McCain’s road tougher, but at least it allows him to focus on picking someone to reinforce his economic message. And this is not solely about someone’s record, but about that person’s ability to communicate.
Obama actually has one overall objective: make americans comfortable. Hillary if not for Bill would be great. He just needs a face and name that reassures.
July 13th, 2008 at 11:16 am
Huckabee was just on Fox and said he is not being vetted either. What is the deal? Are these guys lying or has McCain already made his pick?
July 13th, 2008 at 11:37 am
If McCain has already made his choice, its likely Romney.
July 13th, 2008 at 11:53 am
I actually think that if Pawlenty is chosen, and when the media starts examining him, it will become apparant to most people that Pawlenty is Huckabee-lite. The state budget was around 25 mil when he took office. Now it’s almost 35 mil. He’s done nothing to even slow the size of gov in MN. He did keep the DFL in check regarding raising state taxes, but property taxes are now just as high here as in the rest of the country.
After talking to a few of my indy friends, none had anything positive to say about Romney. They all respect McCain, but would have second thoughts on voting for him if Romney is on the ticket.
July 13th, 2008 at 12:34 pm
#5, “bit bumbling” is a way to desribe Obama’s VP search. Leaks, having to fire the top vetter, name dropping Jones, even though Jones supports McCain, and of course, the latest one;
Obama calling a hard-core Hillary supporter asking for $ and support and telling her that he cannot pick Hillary for VP because of Bill. Then, this supporter calls the Times and leaks the story.
If Barry cannot run a VP search, how can we expect him to lead the United States?
July 13th, 2008 at 12:51 pm
Gary,
I think your closeness to Pawlenty is clouding your judgment. Your claim that Charlie Crist is “less objectionable” to conservatives then Pawlenty simply can’t be taken seriously. By any measure Crist is FAR less comforting to social conservatives at the very least. And he’s even less conservative on everything else. The guy is “open” to giving reparations to the descendants of slaves for goodness sake. He’s Huckabee without the social conservatism or Ridge without the military bonafides; a complete and total disappointment from every vantage point.
July 13th, 2008 at 1:10 pm
The best VP pick for Obama to win would be Bill Ritter.
Pawlenty has a long history with McCain. McCain probably already has picked Pawlenty.
July 13th, 2008 at 1:10 pm
Crist is a bit less objectionable to conservatives because at least he has come around on off-shore drilling
Gary, you must’ve missed Crist’s not-so-subtle double backflip to his original militant environmentalist position last month at his climate summit.
“We must have an open discussion, without compromising Florida’s sensitive ecosystems and her natural beauty. Only when we are able to do so far enough from Florida’s coast, safe enough for our people and clean enough for our beaches should we even consider increasing our oil supply by drilling off Florida’s shore…Let me repeat that — far enough, safe enough, and clean enough.”
One reporter who was listening to Crist’s ‘clarifying’ remarks, was overheard saying “That’s a lot of qualifications!”
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After talking to a few of my indy friends, none had anything positive to say about Romney. They all respect McCain, but would have second thoughts on voting for him if Romney is on the ticket.
IR-MN,
That is, in part, why Romney has already been disqualified from contention, as he violates McCain’s recently divulged self-imposed rule of “do no harm.” And, McCain has repeatedly stressed the need to reach out to independents, swing voters, moderates, centrists, Reagan Democrats and women.
July 13th, 2008 at 1:18 pm
I see McCain less as our “Sarkozy” candidate as I see him as the Republican Arial Sharon. The question that is very important is who will be McCain’s Ehud Olmert. His choice could have very long term effects on the party.
July 13th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
I can’t imagine McCain or his staff feeling they need to vet Mitt Romney more than he has already been vetted. Other than the fact that he can’t walk on water, this guy is as clean as one can get. Oh wait, I did hear that he gets upset with people doing stupid things on the highway, and utters words like shucky durn!!
July 13th, 2008 at 1:36 pm
“That is, in part, why Romney has already been disqualified from contention, as he violates McCain’s recently divulged self-imposed rule of “do no harm.” And, McCain has repeatedly stressed the need to reach out to independents, swing voters, moderates, centrists, Reagan Democrats and women.”
So instead he should pick a do-no-harm, just-ok for everybody candidate who leaves us screwed with a weak-kneed, so-so, nothing exciting nominee in four years?
July 13th, 2008 at 1:54 pm
The question that is very important is who will be McCain’s Ehud Olmert.
JA Pruce,
Well, there is one possible VP who, like Olmert in Jerusalem, also served two successful terms in the 90’s/early 00’s as mayor of a big city with a large Jewish population.
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act-blog,
Don’t shoot the messenger. Those are McCain’s words; not mine. We’ll both be disappointed if McCain plays it safe by selecting Pawlenty or Portman.
July 13th, 2008 at 1:58 pm
Aron, agreed, but then how can you say that McCain should consider Rudy? Outside of abortion, Rudy is probably one of the most partisan, right-wing Republicans out there. You’ve posted a lot of quotes that show that. I still say Sarah Palin will do better with women and independents than your Rudy.
Illinoisguy, how did your surgery go? I hope you are feeling fine!
July 13th, 2008 at 2:04 pm
At the NGA this morning I heard Palin making her pitch for more drilling (in a forum with the CEO of BP). What struck me was that she was seated next to Huntsman and the visual was not favorable for her because she looks young.
July 13th, 2008 at 2:11 pm
#18, are you serious? Palin looks fantasic on camera!
- “she looks young”, yes and according to polls, McCain needs someone who looks/is young. It is his only major negative.
Remember, the older the looking the VP is, the worse it is for McCain.
July 13th, 2008 at 2:17 pm
Kristofer are you saying mitt’s too old even? are we getting any closer to obama’s vp just wondering i heard rumor that hillary made short list should we believe that for obama that is?
July 13th, 2008 at 2:20 pm
Yes, Palin is attractive, but against a “seasoned” man she looks junior. I don’t even know here age, but she looked early 40’s.
July 13th, 2008 at 2:28 pm
IR-MN,
Rudy and McCain share the same left-of-center position on immigration reform. Also, Rudy is to the left of Palin on not just abortion, but gun control as well; positions that puts Giuliani in the good graces of most women and many independents.
July 13th, 2008 at 2:28 pm
#20, Mitt gets a pass because he is youthful and athletic, which puts him on the McCain list for VP. Although his is not my first choice, his family is adorable.
#21, I did not say Palin was attractive. I said she looked fantastic on camera (telegenic/photogenic). Palin is two years younger than Obama.
Paulette, I am sorry, looking junior has won a lot of elections for politicians, such as the Kennedy debate against Nixon, Clinton vs. papa Bush, and Obama against Hillary Clinton.
Next to being able to clearly articulate a message, being telegenic and photogenic is clearly the other key characteristic for a Pol to succeed in today’s media.
July 13th, 2008 at 2:29 pm
44, I think.
And McCain needs a younger person, yes - but what he doesn’t need is someone who doesn’t look ready to take the Presidency.
July 13th, 2008 at 2:36 pm
Kristofer,
Yes, Sarah Palin looks great for 44, but the presence of a youthful-looking Palin or Bobby Jindal on the ticket would only make McCain’s geriatric appearance more pronounced.
July 13th, 2008 at 2:47 pm
Aron, you and I have a differece of opinion, but one of us will be proven correct in the three debates later this year. Either McCain will make Obama look too young, or Obama will make McCain look too old. For McCain’s sake, I hope I am correct.
Oh, and on McCain’s “oldness”, people don’t tell me McCain “LOOKS” old, people tell me McCain “IS” old. The McCain ticket needs to get young, and get young fast.
July 13th, 2008 at 2:59 pm
is obama close to his vp announcement anyone think so that the person i am voting for can announce his vp!
:)?
July 13th, 2008 at 3:02 pm
Obama - July 31st. And it will be an old white guy from the Senate.
Greg, who are you voting for?
July 13th, 2008 at 3:05 pm
You’ve posted a lot of quotes that show that. I still say Sarah Palin will do better with women and independents than your Rudy.
You are very out of touch with mainstream Americans if you believe that.
July 13th, 2008 at 3:06 pm
bob I think he will give vp to the former senator from NC John Edwards. since the rnc choose mccaim i will vote mccain but mccain’s vp decision is a huge issue for me!
July 13th, 2008 at 3:09 pm
The only woman that voted for Rudy, was his wife.
#30, Bob, are you a conservative?
July 13th, 2008 at 3:09 pm
Rudy and McCain share the same left-of-center position on immigration reform. Also, Rudy is to the left of Palin on not just abortion, but gun control as well; positions that puts Giuliani in the good graces of most women and many independents.
Maybe they’re to the left of the center of the Republican party, but their views on immigration and other issues like guns and abortion are firmly planted in the center with respect to the total electorate.
July 13th, 2008 at 3:10 pm
i don’t vote democratic
July 13th, 2008 at 3:11 pm
#32, NO WAY JOSE!
McCain is to the right of Rudy on guns and abortion.
July 13th, 2008 at 3:14 pm
I tell you what if obama picks hillary for vp mccain need to pick rudy but i believe obama’s vp will be pretty boy john edwards
July 13th, 2008 at 3:17 pm
#32, NO WAY JOSE!
McCain is to the right of Rudy on guns and abortion.
That’s true, but they’re both pretty close to the center. McCain may be strongly pro-life, but he’s not a fanatic about it. For instance, he’s supported funding embryonic stem cell research, so he’s willing to compromise on it. Giuliani’s to his left, but he’s also willing to compromise (partial birth abortions, etc.) I’m not talking about the exact geometric center of the political landscape, but rather the large section that is open to compromise on such hot-button issues.
July 13th, 2008 at 3:19 pm
100% sure it will not be Hillary, but if he does select Hillary, McCain has more options for his VP. Conservatives and Evangelicals will give McCain mre rope. As Mike Murphy said today, what Democrats fear the most is Tom Ridge.
Edwards is a flop. The middle class do not care about his “poverty” initiative. Even Kerry’s former campaign manager said it was a mistake to select Edwards.
July 13th, 2008 at 3:22 pm
Forgive me but its really annoying for people to suggest McCain would pick someone pro-choice because it just ain’t gonna happen. One of the few solid parts of the base for McCain are the pro-lifers. If he throws that away he is going to lose some of those voters. He may even lose some high-profile supporters like Huckabee and Brownback.
July 13th, 2008 at 3:22 pm
#36, the press are so stupid. If McCain was 69, instead of 71, we would not even be talking about age.
I love Rudy, I just think he has no chance, unless Obama has a brain-cramp and selects Hillary, then the evengelical community may accept Rudy.
July 13th, 2008 at 3:27 pm
how much longer will obama wait to announce vp?
July 13th, 2008 at 3:28 pm
how much longer will obama wait to announce vp? I think I don’t want mccain to announce before obama
July 13th, 2008 at 3:28 pm
I still say it will be Sanford. He does no harm and he solidifies the base.
July 13th, 2008 at 3:48 pm
Paulette,
In 1980, Ronald Reagan chose the then Pro-choice candidate, George H.W. Bush, to be his running mate. Pro-Lifers stuck with him and revere him to this day. McCain is going to chose Tom Ridge and Ridge will reconcile his abortion position with McCain’s, not unlike G.H.W.B. in 1980 (Heck Bush I was even against supply side economics - “voo-doo economics” and conservatives still stuck with him. After some hemming and hawing, Pro-Lifers will come out for McCain/Ridge because who are they going to vote for? Two candidates who say that they are Pro=Life or two candidates that say that they are Pro-Choice (Obama/?). Plus Ridge locks down Penn and Ohio and attracts independents and security moms. And McCain seems to, for what ever reason, love slightly tweeking the Evangelical base.
IT’S RIDGE!!!!!!!!
July 13th, 2008 at 4:04 pm
I will say this about Ridge.
This election is going to be decided by middle-class, middle-aged white guys who are pissed at Bush, but are uneasy about voting for Obama. Tom Ridge is not going to turn them off. In fact, everyone in that group that I’ve talked to, after I’ve explained to them who Ridge is, what he’s done, and so on, have said that they’d fully support the McCain/Ridge ticket.
Then again, I could be wrong about that demographic being so critical…
July 13th, 2008 at 4:20 pm
I don’t vote on the abortion issue, but someone who comes to the life issue for political necessity lacks character, which is a voting issue.
July 13th, 2008 at 4:58 pm
Reagan was not a suspect moderate Senator who made his living putting his name on lefty bills. And, maybe I’m wrong on this, but how many people were saying that he would only be a one-termer who would be replaced by his VP in four years?
Also - Reagan picking Bush could be seen as being as much about party unity as ideological balance. Bush was the number 2 candidate, and the two beat each other up.
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As for picking Ridge - you people want to screw us with the height of moderation and dullness in four years?
July 13th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
“This election is going to be decided by middle-class, middle-aged white guys”
…also known as Evangelical family men in the heartland who are generally pro-life.
July 13th, 2008 at 5:17 pm
Omg I’ve been backing all of those people nmentioned by PR!
I stand to make a killing!
July 13th, 2008 at 5:19 pm
IR-MN #17 - I’m doing ok, gradually getting better…had a 16″ incision to get the softball size tumor out, and cut the vein as far away from kidney as possible, only to find out that the tumor finger was with 1/2″ of where he cut, so lucky he took the rib out to reach farther than he otherwise could have. Thanks for asking. Gonna go take a walk now!
I still think Mitt Romney will make us a fantastic VP and later President, and believe he is at least as good as anyone else being considered in terms of getting McCain elected.
July 13th, 2008 at 8:39 pm
Illinoisguy, that was major, major surgery. I wish you a speedy recovery and good health!
July 13th, 2008 at 8:42 pm
Anyone wonder if McCain will actually do no “vetting” with questionnaire’s, etc?
With every Republican candidate for Veep denying they’ve been given any vetting questions, I’m wondering if McCain had his mind made up during the primaries, actually.
July 13th, 2008 at 10:26 pm
#51, Dole’s VP search was well documented. Within a week, Kemp was vetted, including medical, interview, etc…at the last minute Dole decided to go to his Tier-2 list to select Kemp.
July 13th, 2008 at 11:47 pm
Lieberman Finds Middle a Tricky Path
July 14th, 2008 at 2:26 am
…also known as Evangelical family men in the heartland who are generally pro-life.
…No, Evangelical, pro-life men are pretty much all Republican voters.
His premise is wrong.
July 14th, 2008 at 8:59 am
will obama announce vp this month? I Guess mccain wanmts to let obama announce first?
July 14th, 2008 at 12:12 pm
I don’t think Romney will be the choice, though I think he is the most qualified. I think he really wants to be head of the RNC. The party needs to get back to its core, and McCain takes us away from our core. Romney’s best place is head of the RNC, where he can influenced the direction of the party.
Pawlenty is a terrible choice. He doesn’t bring any new states with him. He won’t add any excitment, fundraising, etc. to McCain.