The Candidates
Rasmussen Minnesota General Election
- Barack Obama 52% (52%)
- John McCain 34% (39%)
With Leaners
- Barack Obama 54%
- John McCain 37%
Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)
- Barack Obama 65% / 33% (+32%)
- John McCain 56% / 43% (+13%)
Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted July 10. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted June 11 are in parentheses.
July 14th, 2008 at 4:54 pm
What’s funny is that McCain’s favorables are probably equivalent to what Pawlenty’s are right now. I just can’t see how Rasmussen can have this tied nationally, but then have state-by-state polls that are bleak for McCain. Pawlenty won’t deliver this state or any other upper midwestern state. McCain can do it himself if it’s possible.
July 14th, 2008 at 5:03 pm
What I think this means is that favorables aren’t going to do squat for us this year. It seems to me that there are a fair amount of people in the cneter that like McCain - but they’re just not going to vote for him because of the little (R) next to his name. It sucks - but it is what it is. If this was 2000, before George W Bush took a chainsaw to the Republican Party, McCain would be much closer in actual head to heads to his favorable numbers than what we’ve seen lately.
The base needs a reason to vote. I think McCain has maxed out all he can from winning votes from the center.
July 14th, 2008 at 6:09 pm
Too late to move the convention?
July 14th, 2008 at 6:23 pm
T-Paw won’t deliver Minnesota, but Mitt could make a difference in Michigan/Nevada.
July 14th, 2008 at 7:15 pm
FYI, SUSA came out today with a MN senate poll, as did Rasmussen. Coleman did much better in the SUSA poll than he did in Rasmussen. Rasmussen might be overestimating the democratic advantage in some of these states.
July 14th, 2008 at 7:25 pm
#5:
Is it true that Ventura is in the race? I’ve heard several rumors and if he is, who does it hurt more? Franken or Coleman?
July 14th, 2008 at 7:26 pm
Great, I think he’s on Larry King now?
July 14th, 2008 at 7:28 pm
…my mistake, a half hour from now. The SUSA poll had Franken and Ventura tied at around 25%, with Coleman at 43% With those numbers, Ventura would be stupid not to get in the race.
July 14th, 2008 at 7:30 pm
So Ventura splits the liberal anti-war vote. That could really help Coleman.
btw: Is it me or does Sen. Coleman look like Willem Dafoe from the Spiderman movies? Just sayin…
July 14th, 2008 at 8:37 pm
Ventura isn’t running.
July 14th, 2008 at 8:55 pm
I totally agree with #4. There’s absolutely no way that Pawlenty will give MN to McCain, unless things change in a huge way, like Barack says MN are full of idiots.
With Romney, MI, Nevada, and NH go red I believe, maybe MO is assured as well at least from the SURVEYUSA polls.
July 14th, 2008 at 9:25 pm
Romney will help in CO also.
July 14th, 2008 at 10:31 pm
MN is lost. Oh and I don’t believe Romney will turn NH red… outspent all his opponents in the primary only to see his double-digit lead erased to a six-point loss to McCain.
July 14th, 2008 at 10:55 pm
Does this hurt T/Paw?
Don’t tell me it could actually be Mitt after all! That would be so awesome :).
July 14th, 2008 at 11:08 pm
breaking VP news from the WSJ.
“The McCain campaign also hasn’t “articulated” what it wants in a vice president” – Tim Pawlenty.
a.k.a., the process is not that far along.
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/category/campaign-2008/
either;
1) the shifting polling is confusing them
2) they are waiting for Obama
July 15th, 2008 at 7:11 am
McCain may well not announce till AFTER the Olympics!
The longer it goes the better chance our Mitt has. He has campaigned right out of the Edwards play book for no 2.
EXCEPT EDWARDS NEVER SAID THAT KERRY HAD NO IDEA ABOUT ECONOMICS!
July 15th, 2008 at 9:35 am
Whether or not Governor Pawlenty could flip Minnesota depends on several factors.
1. Is the governor popular in areas of the state where Senator McCain has not been able to attract voters? I am thinking suburbia here.
2. Are these polls oversampling the DFL? I would not expect McCain to be ahead in MN, but these numbers are frightening. MN was relatively competitive in 2000 and 2004.
3. Will these numbers get closer in the fall? (with or without Pawlenty).
4. Governor Pawlenty was able to buck the national trend in 2006 and get re-elected while Republican. Could he pull it off again?
July 15th, 2008 at 9:40 am
These numbers look eerily similar to Rasmussen’s results for Michigan. Not to be a smart aleck here, but if Governor Pawlenty can not flip Minnesota, how can we say with any kind of certainty that Mitt Romney will flip Michigan, or vice versa for that matter. With both potential VP candidates and thier respective states, this appears to be a crapshoot at this point.