GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
This race is tightening to a draw folks… This is just the latest poll to confirm the trend:
ABC News/Washington Post General Election Poll, conducted July 10th-13th, 2008
- Barack Obama 49%
- John McCain 46%
This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone July 10-13, 2008, among a random national sample of 1,119 adults, including an oversample of African Americans (weighted to their correct share of the national population), for a total of 209 black respondents. The results from the full survey have a 3-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, PA.
Of course, ABC News is not content to report the results for likely voters, so they go with the Obama Leads By Eight! headline for registered voters.
July 15th, 2008 at 6:17 pm
Potential McCain cabinet:
Vice President: Tom Ridge
Secretary of State: Joseph Lieberman
Secretary of Treasury: Steve Forbes
Secretary of Defense: Lindsey Graham
Attorney General: Fred Thompson
Secretary of the Interior: Bill Owens
Secretary of Health and Human Services: Bill Frist
Secretary of Education: Carly Fiorina
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Michael Steele
Secretary of Transportation: John Engler
Secretary of Homeland Security: Rudy Giuliani
Chief of Staff: Mark Salter
United States Trade Representative: Mitt Romney
July 15th, 2008 at 6:22 pm
Why would Carly Fiorina be his ed sec? Lisa Keegan is his ed advisor and former superintendent of public ed in Arizona; she’d probably get the nod for that one.
July 15th, 2008 at 6:25 pm
Good call JB, I’ll add her to my list.
July 15th, 2008 at 6:27 pm
Potential McCain cabinet (Revised):
Vice President: Tom Ridge
Secretary of State: Joseph Lieberman
Secretary of Treasury: Steve Forbes
Secretary of Defense: Lindsey Graham
Attorney General: Fred Thompson
Secretary of the Interior: Bill Owens
Secretary of Health and Human Services: Bill Frist
Secretary of Education: Lisa Keegan
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Michael Steele
Secretary of Transportation: John Engler
Secretary of Homeland Security: Rudy Giuliani
Chief of Staff: Mark Salter
United States Trade Representative: Mitt Romney
Secretary of Commerce: Carly Fiorina
July 15th, 2008 at 6:33 pm
Beautiful. Let’s hope it works out. There are a lot of optimists on this board. I’m not one of them. Just a feeling. Hope I’m wrong.
July 15th, 2008 at 6:35 pm
Two things concern me at this point. I think that Mitt Romney though seems like a good choice for indpendents, democracts. He is not a good choice for an evnagelical base. It has been said that the evang pushed bush over the top in 2004. Well right now thanks to Dobson and others they really are not gung how for McCain right now. If Romney is put on the ticket that would probably cause some to do like Dobson swears he will do and not vote for either, Obama or McCain. McCain is going to need all the votes he can get come convention Obama lets say he gets a five point bounce and you average all the polls and he is up by five and gains five. If McCain gains five as well, that puts Obama from 10 up back down to 5 because of McCains bounce after his convention.
The second thing that concerns me is that McCain’s only area of importance as it pertains to the major issues Econ, War and Health Care and a few others. He only does well on the War and now even that is tied evenly on who people think will do a better job, between him and Obama. I think that there are safer people besides Romeny to pick, because I say it again, I am not sure how many evang will sit out like Dobson says he will do but I guarntee it there will be some or just enough that if the election is closer in Nov tip it to Obama. Law of avg the Repub won two supper close elections. Can the table be run again to win a third or will the tables be turned and Obama gets it this time. Some food for thought and concerns……….
July 15th, 2008 at 6:35 pm
Why does Michael Steele get Urban Development? Because he’s black? That’s such a token black post.
Why on Earth would Lindsey Graham be Defense Secretary?
July 15th, 2008 at 6:54 pm
Everyone knows that registered voter totals are what counts in the general. It’s the primaries where you only count the likely voter numbers. Come on…
http://www.political-buzz.com/
July 15th, 2008 at 7:06 pm
6. There is a liberal camp in this country who would vote for any cadidate that runs on the Democrat ticket.
Obama will lose some of the Registered Democrats because he is a very weak candidate (appealing to leftists & kids).
McCain should also be able to gain on the indpendent vote as well.
Registered Republicans will vote for McCain.
When all is said and done, the social conservatives will vote for McCain because they do not want to lose the Federal Courts to liberal Judges and Justices.
July 15th, 2008 at 7:12 pm
No, it’s likely voters that matter. Not every registered voters actually vote.
July 15th, 2008 at 7:35 pm
This is relatively good news. McCain is still down 4 points in the RCP average. Like I’ve been saying for weeks, if he finds those four points nationally - then the state by state polling will follow and he’ll win.
But it’s not going to be easy. He’s got to show some ENERGY about topics other than the war. If he can hammer home this oil drilling subject where Barry is on the wrong side of the issue then McCain ought to see the polls move somewhat.
July 15th, 2008 at 7:40 pm
Regardless of who you may support, who do you trust more to handle:
Social issues, such as abortion and gay civil unions - Obama 56%; McCain 32%
The economy - Obama 54%; McCain 35%
The federal budget deficit - Obama 50%; McCain 36%
Immigration issues - Obama 48%; McCain 38%
International affairs - Obama 45%; McCain 45%
An unexpected major crisis - McCain 50%; Obama 41%
The U.S. campaign against terrorism - McCain 49%; Obama 43%
The war in Iraq - McCain 47%; Obama 45%
The situation involving Iran - McCain 46%; Obama 44%
The situation involving Israel and the Palestinians - McCain 44%; Obama 42%
Please tell me whether the following statement applies to (Obama/McCain), or not:
He knows enough about world affairs to serve effectively as president
McCain 72%
Obama 56%
He would be a good commander-in-chief of the military
McCain 72%
Obama 48%
He’s been flip-flopping on the issues
Obama 49%
McCain 47%
Which of these is more important to you in a candidate for president:
(strength and experience) or (a new direction and new ideas)?
New direction/ideas 47%
Strength/experience 46%
Change has been a theme of Obama’s campaign. Do you think he has or has not
done enough to explain what he means by that?
Has not done enough 48%
Has done enough 47%
Regardless of who you may support, who do you think has better knowledge of world affairs?
McCain 63%
Obama 26%
July 15th, 2008 at 7:40 pm
Adam,
Do you think that there is a chance that McCain could evolve his position on ANWR?
July 15th, 2008 at 7:52 pm
JA,
I don’t even know anymore. A month ago i would have said no. But Obama’s shifts have been so much more apparent and politically expedient that I think McCain could get away with it if he wanted to.
July 15th, 2008 at 7:56 pm
Going to Europe and the middle east to meet (and be photographed with) five or more world leaders will shrink McCain’s advantages on some of the foreign policy issues. Strange as it seems, just standing next to a sitting president or prime minister elevates you immediately.
Is there an equivalent for the economy and other domestic issues so that McCain can shrink Obama’s advantages? The right running mate seems to be the only way.
July 15th, 2008 at 8:22 pm
#15, what if the American public look at Obama next to those world leaders and say; “he doesn’t look like a President”?
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“including an oversample of African Americans”
Kavon, please explain this????????
July 15th, 2008 at 8:28 pm
Kristofer,
I think what it means is that if they sampled AA’s to their correct percentage of the population (13 %) that would be 130 out of 1000 in the sample - which would generate a huge margin of error. They probably sampled perhaps 300 or 400 blacks to find out the true AA vote and then weighted that back to what the actualy percentage of the population is likely to be in the fall.
That’s my understanding anyway.
July 15th, 2008 at 8:36 pm
They took a separate poll of AA’s to determine their thoughts on black leadership.
I was watching MSNBC and they reported that a US diplomat, Nicholas Burns, will join the Iranain nuclear talks. His role was not clear, whether he would just observe, but we are apparently joining the talks.
July 15th, 2008 at 8:43 pm
Johnny Mac, take the lead!
July 15th, 2008 at 8:44 pm
He would be a good commander-in-chief of the military
McCain 72%
Obama 48%
Whoa.
July 15th, 2008 at 9:01 pm
72 plus 48 = 120.
Is that a Chicago or a Detroit poll?
lol
July 15th, 2008 at 9:38 pm
no, they ask people if they think McCain will be a good C-in-C (and they respond by saying Y or N), then ask the same about Obama… so McCain’s #s are 76 yes, 24 no; Obama’s #s are 48 yes, 48 (i think) no.
by the way, you all should look at more internals in the poll… they are pretty good for McCain (actually more bad for Obama)… only like 45% of young adults (18-29) say theyre def gonna vote, down from about 65% in March, but seniors are only 6% less likely to vote and over 60% say theyre def gonna vote still(seniors are more for McCain than young adults). Hillary’s supporters and Democrats overall are like 10-15% less likely to vote. This explains the big discrepancy between the 10-12 pt Obama lead in RVs/aduults and the 3 pt lead among likely voters. 83% of Republicans, the same number as in March, are def gonna vote in November.
I think Obama hasn’t done a good enough job in bringing over Hillary’s supporters over to his side. Plus, I think his flip-flops on FISA and Iraq have hurt him among his younger more liberal supporters.
July 15th, 2008 at 9:38 pm
#18 Its not Nick Burns but William Burns. This is a major shift/flip-flop for Bush who refused any ties with the Iranians until they renounced their nuclear program first. And its a victory for Obama who has called for more direct diplomacy.
I want to be the first to predict that the media is going to begin a storyline that Obama has made and stuck by some foreign policy judgments - direct talks with Iran, more troops for Afghanistan - that have proved right.
July 15th, 2008 at 10:06 pm
9. Dobson has a big following. Romney is Mormon. It is a religious issue here. It really is. That is why he came in far behind McCain. It was his biggest problem. It is also, why McCain lost in 2000 to Bush.
We have to be realistic too. McCain has a chance but to say that he does not have problems too is not being realistic. He does with the base. Right now, he has envang holding there nose voting for him. However, if they hold strong religious convictions, Romney because he is a Mormon which in my opinion should not be the only reason why not to have it but to allot who hold this conviction it is, will cause them to sit out like Dobson is doing.
There are other strong VP Candidates that McCain can pick that would make the far right weak apathetic base towards him strong while at the same time McCain being the main guy who is appeals more to independents whole heartedly than his base.
The mood of the country is what it is. I wish it were different but it is not. I am not saying that McCain does not have a chance but he does not do himself any favors as far as the base is concerned by putting another person on the ticket that evangel not gung ho about.
The Economy and the War are the two biggest issues that is a fact. The Economy Obama is beating McCain bad and the War depends on how the question is asked is even.
McCain has worked to do. We hope that Obama messes up royally; but as Huckabee said, McCain has to market himself better and demonize Obama less or he will not win. McCain can not ignore that he has to do this much better. That’s how you succeed.
July 16th, 2008 at 12:15 am
McCain backs off on opposition to gay adoptions
July 16th, 2008 at 8:43 am
Latest McCain flip-flop. And after that clarification I still don’t know where he stands.
July 16th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
JA Pruce:
Are you filling the office of Secretary of HUD with Michael Steele simply because he’s black? Are you kidding?