The Candidates
Rasmussen Daily General Election Tracking Poll
- Barack Obama 45%
- John McCain 41%
With Leaners
- Barack Obama 48%
- John McCain 45%
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters–is +/- 2 percentage points.
July 16th, 2008 at 9:27 am
Still going strong!
July 16th, 2008 at 9:29 am
I think McCain will be alright as long as he
remains in this range for the next few weeks.
Obama should be way ahead now.
July 16th, 2008 at 9:30 am
Why is the poll trending back to Obama? It was three days tied. Then one day by one point. Then one day by two points. Now, it is three. What is the reason for ths slow, gradual change once again in the poll?
July 16th, 2008 at 10:32 am
Not to play Devil’s advocate. I am just being realistic. I think it is good for McCain to be behind right now because it causes you to prepare yourself better, fight more and not take to much for granted. If McCain does win he is going to win by a squeeker. Meaning he will have to run the table and win for the Rep another razor close election. There is alot of work to do. I am going to be modest and say that both he and Obama will get a 5% bump in the polls. If this trends hold which they seem that they are give or take 2-3 points. Obama will be up 7-10% with a bounce and when McCain gets his it will put us back to where we are at this moment currently it will erase Obamas 10 point lead after the conv and put him back between 4-7. You see number 3 the state polls are changing that is why the Obama increase.
July 16th, 2008 at 11:08 am
Stephen, it’s because of the days rolling off the average. There were two days (10th & 11th, reported the 11th and 12th) where Sen McCain was leading/tied with Sen Obama (hense the average narrowed and became even). On the 14th (reported yesterday), Sen McCain had a bad day just as his best day was rolling off, so it shifted the average. Yesterday was around a 2% lead for Sen Obama, so if he remains at that lead for the next two day’s the average will narrow again on Saturday (but not until then).