GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
One thing that everyone on this site would probably agree on is that John McCain is no Ronald Reagan. But that statement may mean something different coming from me than it does coming from thee. McCain had a Reaganesque opportunity to remake the Republican Party earlier this year when large numbers of non-Republicans and anti-Bush Republicans cast ballots for the Arizona senator in Republican primaries across the country. McCain generally won moderate and center-right Republicans while losing hard-right voters. He won Independents and Democrats who crossed over to vote in these primaries while often losing Republicans themselves. He won non-traditional Republican voting blocs like seniors, Hispanics, and Catholics. And he won those voters who disapproved of Bush and of the war in Iraq. Moreover, a divisive Democratic primary left millions of Democrats hesitant to support eventual nominee Barack Obama after the dust had settled. Yep, John McCain could’ve definitely taken a page from Ronald Reagan and used all of this as an opportunity to expand the Republican universe at a time when Republicans seem to be gasping for air in every region of the country save the South. If only John McCain understood that there’s a time to be a maverick and a time to be a movement guy.
McCain’s problem is that he doesn’t know how to be anything other than the rebel who plays by his own rules. When Reagan found himself in a similar situation in 1980, he managed to win a massive victory over an incumbent president by uniting the traditional Republican voters of the time — Gerald Ford Republicans — with the new conservative converts to the Republican Party that Reagan had brought in. Reagan stuck with his base from the primaries, made up largely of brand new Republican voters who had previously been Independents or Democrats, on the issues. He promised them tax cuts and judicial restraint and confrontation with Communism, things that the Ford base of the GOP may have found unnerving. But the last thing that the Ford base wanted to do was re-elect the hapless Jimmy Carter. That allowed Reagan to promise a Republican Party of the future that spoke to his base in the primaries while keeping the old GOP base in line by pointing to Carter and saying: “Are you really gonna elect this guy to the presidency?”
Once McCain basically wrapped this year’s race up on Super Tuesday, he should have immediately turned his rebellion against the Bush Establishment that characterized his primary victories into a political movement. He should have turned to the moderate Republicans, the center-right conservatives, the Republicans who don’t listen to talk radio, the Democrats and Independents who crossed voted in the GOP primaries, and the anti-Bush Republicans and laid out a new direction for the Republican Party that would mark the end of the Bush era.
Would the Bush base have revolted? Of course. But to what end? Ultimately, McCain could’ve said to them what Reagan said to the Ford Republicans in 1980. He could’ve pointed to Barack Obama and said to them: “Are you really gonna elect this guy to the presidency?” They wouldn’t have. And they wouldn’t have had anywhere else to go.
Instead, McCain seemed to forget about his base from the 2008 primaries as quickly as he forgot about his base from the primaries eight years ago. That’s because McCain is not the leader of a movement. He’s a maverick. He’s the guy who rides into town in the old Western and saves it from the bad guys, only to ride out alone and to probably forget the names and faces of all the folks he saved by the time the next episode airs. That makes for a romantic story, but it doesn’t work well in politics. When that strategy is tried in politics, it creates a vacuum that ends up being filled by the candidate’s handlers, which means that McCain’s policies become whatever Phil Gramm or Carly Fiorina want them to be on any given day.
It may not be too late for McCain, but that doesn’t mean that he hasn’t squandered an opportunity to make his party anew. If McCain wins, it will be because Obama loses. McCain has lost the chance to define this election, and he’s now simply the anti-Obama candidate, much as Kerry was the anti-Bush candidate in 2004. Earlier this year, McCain was in striking distance of Obama in tons of Northeastern states, such as New York and Massachusetts, not to mention Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. McCain had a shot at blowing up the red/blue divide and making the GOP a national party again. That’s over now. McCain has lost his chance to redefine the Republican Party. He’s lost his chance to scoop up the majority of Hillary voters, most of whom have settled on the new, centrist Barack. All McCain has left is grit. And something tells me that he actually prefers it that way. Even if his supporters do not.
July 17th, 2008 at 9:50 pm
Oh God , DaveG, stop questioning McCain, he is doing a great job with Hillary voters.
July 17th, 2008 at 9:52 pm
DaveG, I disagree. Every winning candidate embraces the “big tent” philosophy. All Reagan did was coin the phrase. McCain is trying to do the same here. McCain has been respectful of every voting bloc that is more moderate than code pink, and I applaud him for it. I’m unable to do that, but it’s just one more reason McCain is a great, great man.
July 17th, 2008 at 10:07 pm
You guys are missing the point. McCain’s problem is that he has no base. He had one during the primaries, but he never cultivated it. He never watered it. He never let it grow into a movement. As such, I imagine many of the crossover voters that cast ballots for McCain during the primaries are now voting for Obama.
So his primary base wasn’t fortified, and the traditional GOP base was never excited by McCain, which has all led to a huge enthusiasm gap between the two candidates. Very few voters are really excited about McCain, while lots of voters are really excited about Obama.
This has allowed Obama to define the election. McCain had a chance to define the election or at least help do so but he was never able to get a message straight. What’s McCain’s campaign ABOUT? Can anyone really answer that?
July 17th, 2008 at 10:08 pm
Are you going to give George Will a portion of your royalties since you’re parroting his ideas? Gosh, for a candidate that’s tied with Snobama in the latest Rasmussen poll, McCain certainly seems dead.
July 17th, 2008 at 10:09 pm
DaveG, McCain cannot win with a base. He attracts voters from all areas.
- National security Dems
- Deficit hawks
- Moderate Republicans
- Neo-conservatives
That is McCain, that is what he is about. He is not polarizing, he is a big tent guy.
July 17th, 2008 at 10:09 pm
The Bush base? Wouldn’t that be mainly the people who supported Huckabee? Because we know that bush and Fi-Con do not go together at all.What would Romney’s base be?
July 17th, 2008 at 10:15 pm
#4: Hey, it’s not my fault George Will keeps parroting my ideas
#5: I agree! That’s why I think McCain should’ve spent the past few months developing a platform of big ideas that speaks to the very base that you just summed up. Instead, he’s been more of an issue-of-the-day type guy, where the issue of the day often depends on the most recent gaffe from one of his handlers. Example: why have we heard approximately one line about the deficit from McCain for the past five months?
#6: The Bush base supported Romney and Huck.
July 17th, 2008 at 10:17 pm
I, for one, am glad. Sen. McCain reinventing the party in DaveG’s image is a one-way ticket to 10 years in the wilderness.
McCain’s true problem is that he can only set out a bold policy difference when it comes to Iraq. Otherwise, he’s hopelessly clumsy and prone to half-measures.
July 17th, 2008 at 10:21 pm
McCain saved this party. He will be the only reason why the Democrats don’t have 60 seats in the Senate.
July 17th, 2008 at 10:28 pm
DaveG has the most anti-McCain headlines on this site. His new nickname is DaveGAias.
McCain must be commended for keeping it close after two months of Obama dominated press coverage. They have a great plan on attracting Hillary voters.
July 17th, 2008 at 10:34 pm
If that plan includes Palin as VP, I’m on board.
July 17th, 2008 at 10:40 pm
I agree that McCain has wasted a bunch of opportunities. But so does every candidate.
By the same token Obama is tied or narrowly ahead in a number of recent polls and numerous state polls are rather close as well. Multiple polls have shown that he tends to lose support once a VP is added to the ticket, unless it’s some known quantity like a Clinton or Edwards. Despite his fundraising the McCain/RNC combo has managed to keep pace with him.
He’s flipped on so many issues he should be part of the men’s gymanstics team in Beijing. He’s opened up so many avenues of attack. He thinks 75-80% of Americans are idiots when it comes to high gas prices and what to do about it. He’s been proven massively wrong on the key nat’l security issue of the past couple years. He still has weaknesses with key voting blocs and he’s still black.
So, McCain is still iln the game. Unfortunately I agree with Dave that he hasn’t shown much inclination to really do anything about it and go and win this election.
I think part of that is that unlike a Reagan or even a Clinton, McCain doesn’t really seem to care about issues, doesn’t really have an ideology or a driving cause. Well, strike that, He cares deeply about Iraq, but on the domestic front, he just seems indifferent. The issues he has been passionate about are ones that no one in the public cares about. Campaign Finance, Earmarks, Cap and Trade, Climate Change, etc… are all things that the elites and the media pump up but that the public could care less about.
I mean him going on about vetoing a few million in earmarks is really peanuts with hundreds of billions and trillions in deficits and debt. Who really cares about 8 million here and 17 million there?
He also seems to be uncomfortable as leader of a movement or as actually running for something. In 2000 when he could play the outsider and the media was on his jock as he tried to take down Bush, and he could focus on a small state like NH, he was fine. Same this year. But on a national level and as head of a party and without the media pumping him up, he seems lost.
Now, he’s come from behind before and seems to thrive as the underdog and being given no shot so I’m not counting him out by any means.
But I would like to see some signs of life.
July 17th, 2008 at 10:42 pm
Guys, McCain is getting very little press. Did you read the NYT story? He is getting about 1/3 of the press of Obama, what can he do?
July 17th, 2008 at 10:42 pm
Maybe we need to mount a huge brainwashing op to convince McCain that Obama is a conservative Republican and then he’ll be ready to go after him full bore. :;
July 17th, 2008 at 10:54 pm
Check out this ad called “Proud” by the Washington State Republican Party.
July 17th, 2008 at 10:55 pm
I also wonder how much the success of the surge has lessened his fire. I think a bit part of what drove him was not wanting a repeat of Vietnam and exorcising that demon.
Now that the surge appears to have succeeded, at least to the point where there won’t be some nam-like retreat, the major reason for his candidacy has been fulfilled. It would be like if the Berlin Wall came down and the USSR folded up in the spring and summer of 1980. A big part of Reagan’s platform would have disappeared.
He needs to find something to new. I think the drilling/lower gas prices thing is the perfect issue and pretty much the only one where the public is actually on his and the party’s side against the Dems and Obama. He should play that to the hilt. He’ll never win on any other domestic issue.
As far as nat’l security, personally the Iranian nuclear issue is big with me, but I don’t think it matters all that much to the public and they don’t have the stomach for action at this time. So, I’d suggest he starts strongly touting Surge II in Afghanistan. Announce that he’ll appoint Petraeus to finish his follow up album and use his support for the Surge and how he was right and Obama was 100% wrong to drive that issue home.
Those two issues I think would be a good start.
July 17th, 2008 at 11:13 pm
Michelle is going to be a big target.
July 17th, 2008 at 11:59 pm
John McCain is who I’ll vote for, but unfortunately he’s employing the same tactics that lost congress for the Conservatives.
Although McCain leans further left than I would personally like, I believe that he’ll provide better wisdom on war issues than we’ve had during the previous 7 years.
The worst of Iraq may appear to be behind us, but that’s misleading I think..
I think it’s going to get more complex as we balance troop withdrawal while keeping a hammer held over Iran’s head. We absolutely cannot just vacate the entire area.
Obama has tried several times to acknowledge this fact - and keeps getting hammered by his base over it. But fact is fact. You cannot just abandon the region in any sense of the word.
There’s just no getting around the fact that had McCain’s suggestion been followed years earlier - there would have been fewer casualties and I think we would have been much further along
I disagree with McCain on a great many things, however foreign policy prowess is going to be absolutely critical over the next 4 years in comparison to everything else. IMHO.
I think foreign policy will consume most of the next president’s term, regardless of who is in the White House. And for that, nothing matters more to me than foreign policy capability.
Danny Vice
http://www.theweeklyvice.com
July 18th, 2008 at 12:18 am
Yeah. He has no base and doesn’t share the values of most Americans. That’s conservatism I mean. Besides that, he’s alright.
July 18th, 2008 at 1:08 am
In other words dave, McCain should have looked in the mirror, denounced himself and converted to be a Reagan conservative. Agreed
July 18th, 2008 at 5:46 am
Guess who said this (not Heathy)
….. Says:
July 31st, 2007 at 2:56 am
wouldn’t it be something if Fred fizzles out or doesn’t run or his campaign just never really takes off for whatever reason, Iraq gets better, security and terrorism continue to be important, immigration fades as time goes on, the South and the big states never really take to Mitt, Rudy remains pro choice, and in the end the party coalesces around the crusty old veteran/war hero with inspiring story who was steadfast on Iraq and the President?
or is that just too out there?
HOW GOOD WAS THAT!
July 18th, 2008 at 11:28 am
Thank God McCain wasn’t able to reinvent the GOP. I doubt I would have stuck around had he.
I think it’s time for the LP to address all those issues you mentioned DaveG. Because the GOP is losing its way more and more every day
Now, that McCain has declared that the Surge has Succeeded, does that mean we can bring all of our troops home and we can now change our nominee to someone who has a clue about domestic issues and the economy?
July 18th, 2008 at 1:19 pm
Shouldn’t there be a statute of limitations on Ronald Reagan mentions?
July 18th, 2008 at 9:31 pm
Ok no-one got it it was Jim! Well done Jim you star you!