GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
The Guardian has the exclusive:
The US plans to establish a diplomatic presence in Tehran for the first time in 30 years as part of a remarkable turnaround in policy by President George Bush.
The Guardian has learned that an announcement will be made in the next month to establish a US interests section - a halfway house to setting up a full embassy. The move will see US diplomats stationed in the country.
The news of the shift by Bush who has pursued a hawkish approach to Iran throughout his tenure comes at a critical time in US-Iranian relations. After weeks that have seen tensions rise with Israel conducting war games and Tehran carrying out long-range missile tests, a thaw appears to be under way.
Read the rest here.
H/T - Gamecock
July 17th, 2008 at 2:30 pm
If this is true, we either have a secret deal with them to end nuclear development, or Bush is an idiot. 1 of the 2.
July 17th, 2008 at 2:31 pm
Does this help Obama?
July 17th, 2008 at 2:32 pm
We don’t know this is a shift in actual policy. Who thinks we’ve not been talking with Iran behind the scenes?
I’d not be surprised if we publicize a “North Korea” type agreement with Tehran. It’s in neither country’s interests to get into a war. Achmedinejad is the insane figurehead of a very rational and self-interested government.
July 17th, 2008 at 2:35 pm
#2, That was what I was wondering. I really don’t see how this will get them to halt their nuclear program. Israel probably is not happy about this if this turns out to be true. if we establish relations with Iran, we will have effectively wasted all the time they were islaoted diplomatically around the world and will prop up the regime and will give it renewd life when it is in horrible shape domestically in Iran. What will piss me off even more is if this benefits Obama.
July 17th, 2008 at 2:38 pm
This helps McCain, we do not want McCain being asked if he is going to war with Iran, because we all know McCain, he’ll give an honest answer. Honest, but unpopular.
I remember when Bubba Clinton signed the deal with North Korea and the Secretary of state paid an official visit. That sure worked for us.
July 17th, 2008 at 2:43 pm
Condi Rice will be on the Sean Hannity show shortly to discuss this more in depth…this should be interesting.
July 17th, 2008 at 2:44 pm
#2 & #4,
I see it as a defusion of one of the central tenets of Obama’s foreign policy.
July 17th, 2008 at 2:46 pm
I think this is a good thing. Bush has lately made a string of decisions I actually like… and I tend to be pretty anti-Bush.
July 17th, 2008 at 2:49 pm
Is this also helping the price of oil to fall today?
#7- you’re probably right. My only fear is that Obama can claim he was “ahead” of the Bush administration and try to lay claim to his Messiahship once again.
July 17th, 2008 at 2:49 pm
and Obama wants to just talk to them without carrying around a big stick… hahahah if this all pans out - agree with the policy or not - you can peg this as a huge victory for the bush administration’s foreign policy. What is funny is how all the dem’s & obama and msm got played! lol!
July 17th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
I am scratching my head on this one……I hope it is not what I fear it is….
July 17th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
Kevon is correct. Wd did not see Bush meet with Iranian leaders, did we? That is Obama’s policy.
July 17th, 2008 at 3:02 pm
Kristofer,
The thing that was most dangerous and naive about Obama’s policy position was that he said he’d be willing to meet with Iran’s leaders without preconditions.
It remains to be seen whether the Iranians (or Bush) have capitulated on the prerequisite of agreeing to suspend the enrichment of uranium.
John Bolton, like myself, is less than thrilled with this latest development.
“This is a complete U-turn and very disappointing to say the least. Under the freeze-for-freeze deal Iran only has to not increase its nuclear material. This is an acknowledgment and validation of its existing enrichment activities.”
July 17th, 2008 at 3:23 pm
All this does is help Obama, who can now point and say, “see, even this administration sees the wisdom of talking with your enemies…”
July 17th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
mitt romney
July 17th, 2008 at 3:42 pm
There has to be some secret deal here - either to end the nuclear development, stop the anti-Israel rhetoric, or whatever - either that, or the Iranians got scared back into their wits for some reason.
Perhaps the Ayatollah is in declining health?
July 17th, 2008 at 3:46 pm
This should help McCain. Iran was very cooperative with the United States in the initial months of the Iraq war. Then when Iraq become chaotic, Iran did a 180, harbored and trained militias, did everything they could to defeat our efforts in Iraq, and vowed to fill our void when the US left. Now we know the surge worked –Iran knows it too. They know we will have a strong and lasting presence in the region. Iran’s philosophy this: We ALMOST beat them but we couldn’t, so lets join them.
July 17th, 2008 at 4:00 pm
I’ll choose door #2, Bush is an idiot. On Iran and North Korea, he’s pretty much backed down from all his prior stands. It makes sense. he’s coming to the end and he wants to tie things up for both his legacy and for his successor. The only thing that even makes remote sense is that this is the quid for the quo of Iran standing down in Iraq and laying off the Mahdi Army and other militias and terrorists. They agreed to pipe down in Iraq if we agreed to leave their nuclear program alone. But I’ll still go with Bush as idiot.
Iran was able to string him out to the end of his term. They know that Obama will likely win and they’ve played this hand all the way out and are now content to wait unti Obama takes office when they’ll have free reign to start all over again, knowing that however ineffective and unwilling Bush was to do anything to them, Obama will all the more unwilling to do anything.
By cutting some deal now, they effectively remove any chance that the we will take their nukes out, or that we would allow Israel to do it. Israel can still do it themselves but they now know that Bush and Rice have abandoned them and left them holding the bag. They can’t count on any support from Washington whatsoever.
Bush will leave office with Iran much closer to nuclear weapons than when he entered, and with Iran having successfully resisted and deflected any attempts by the US to stop or limit their program. All in all, Bush’s Iran policy has been a complete failure.
July 17th, 2008 at 4:19 pm
Did Bush negotiate the deal without “without preconditions.”
I hope so.
hhhmmm, what about the timing of this, in respect to the 08 campaign?
July 17th, 2008 at 4:33 pm
Also, this is a *rumor*.
July 17th, 2008 at 4:44 pm
The possibility of Bush’s legacy (in an historical context) being looked upon favorably after achieving victory in Iraq has increased dramatically in recent months.
However, if he goes down in history as the president who cravenly allowed Iran to develop nuclear weapons that were used to annihilate Israel, he would not receive the benefit of the doubt that was extended to Roosevelt after the Holocaust, but would be viewed in America with universal contempt and disgust as an accomplice to genocide.
July 17th, 2008 at 6:16 pm
I guess we figured out we cant solve this problem militarily or at least in a manner that will keep the world running in some semblance of stability. As for Obama, it helps in two ways:
(1) Any diplomatic thaw comes closer to his position and he can co-opt it for himself.
(2) Removing Iran/middle east as an issue refocuses the campaign on domestic issues where Obama consistently outscores McCain in public perceptions
July 17th, 2008 at 6:38 pm
In Iraq, Mixed Feelings About Obama and His Troop Proposal
A tough Iraqi general, a former special operations officer with a baritone voice and a barrel chest, melted into smiles when asked about Senator Barack Obama.
“Everyone in Iraq likes him,” said the general, Nassir al-Hiti. “I like him. He’s young. Very active. We would be very happy if he was elected president.”
But mention Mr. Obama’s plan for withdrawing American soldiers, and the general stiffens.
“Very difficult,” he said, shaking his head. “Any army would love to work without any help, but let me be honest: for now, we don’t have that ability.”
For General Hiti, who commands a swath of western Baghdad, the American military is a necessary, if vexing, presence. He ticks off the ways it helps: evacuating wounded Iraqi soldiers, bringing in helicopters when things go wrong, defusing bombs, getting detailed pictures of areas from drone planes.
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[F]or many middle-class Iraqis, affection for Mr. Obama is tempered by worry that his proposal could lead to chaos in a nation already devastated by war. Many Iraqis also acknowledge that security gains in recent months were achieved partly by the buildup of American troops, which Mr. Obama opposed and his presumptive Republican opponent, Senator John McCain, supported.
“In no way do I favor the occupation of my country,” said Abu Ibrahim, a Western-educated businessman in Baghdad, “but there is a moral obligation on the Americans at this point.”
“He seems like a nice guy,” Mr. Ibrahim said. But he hoped that Mr. Obama’s statements about a relatively fast pullout were mere campaign talk.
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Saad Sultan, an official in an Iraqi government ministry, contended that Mr. Obama could give a fresh start to relations between the Arab world and the United States.
Mr. Sultan…like many Iraqis, feels instinctively close to the senator because he heard that he had Muslim roots.
“Every time I see Obama I say: ‘He’s close to us. Maybe he’ll see us in a different way,’ ” Mr. Sultan said. “I find Obama very close to my heart.”
Sultan said his travels in Germany, where there have been American bases since the end of World War II, softened his attitude toward a long-term presence. “I have no problem to have a camp here. I find it in Germany and that’s a strong country. Why not in Iraq?”
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Race is also a consideration. Muhammad Ahmed Kareem, 49, an engineer from Mosul, said he had high expectations of Mr. Obama because his experience as a black man in America might give him more empathy for others who feel oppressed by a powerful West. “Blacks suffered a lot of discrimination, much like Arabs,” Mr. Kareem said. “That’s why we expect that his tenure will be much better.”
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But for some Iraqis the American presence remains the backbone of security in the neighborhood. Saidiya, a southern Baghdad district, was so brutalized by violence a year ago that a young Iraqi television reporter who fled thought he would never come back. But a telephone call from his father in December persuaded him to return. An American unit had planted itself in the district, helping chase away radicals. The family could go out shopping. They could drive their car to the gas station.
“The Americans paved the way for the Iraqi Army there,” said the young man, who married this year. “If they weren’t there, the Iraqi forces could not have taken control.” Even so, he agreed with Mr. Obama’s plan for a faster withdrawal. American forces “helped the Iraqi Army to get back its dignity,” he said. “They are qualified now.”
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Falah al-Alousy is the director of an organization that runs a school in an area south of Baghdad that was controlled by religious extremists two years ago. Former insurgents turned against the militant group, but local authorities still rely heavily on Americans to keep the peace; the Iraqi Army, largely Shiite, is not allowed to patrol in the area, Mr. Alousy said.
“Al Qaeda would rearrange itself and come back, if the Americans withdraw,” he said. As for Mr. Obama’s plan for withdrawal, “It’s just propaganda for an election.”
July 17th, 2008 at 6:38 pm
This is utterly useless — why would he do this? Absolutely nothing will come of this and all it does is help to legitimize the mullahs and Ahmadinejad.
Norman Podhoretz has stated that he thinks that Bush will bomb Iran before his time in office is done, based on talks he’s had with him. That’s thrown into doubt after this — should it be true, at least.
July 17th, 2008 at 8:12 pm
Obama will use this to say that he was ahead of the Administration. This certainly makes it harder for McCain to criticise Obama’s position on Iran. If he’s not careful the follow-up question will be: “so you disagree with the Bush Administrations decision?”
July 17th, 2008 at 8:15 pm
Ugh, after reading the constant flow of negative Republican reactions to this I remember why I’ll probably vote Barr in November even though I’m hoping McCain gets elected…
What happened to Republicans? I used to blame Bush, but now I’m not so sure…
July 17th, 2008 at 8:16 pm
I’m having a really hard time believing this, but if it’s true, then good for Bush. Here’s hoping our leaders really aren’t stupid enough to get us into a war with Iran.