I don’t find the idea that a quarter of the electorate is undecided in July to be at all surprising.
I question the degree to which pollsters push for an answer on the polls that show single-digit undecideds — that many people have not made up their minds.
I agree that the undecided number is almost always much lower — I just think polling companies are likely pushing too hard to get an answer. There has been another poll or two this year that I’ve seen with similarly high undecideds — it may have been previous IBD polls, so maybe they are using a different technique.
The subject of high undecideds reminds me of something I meant to post yesterday.
I get newsletters from a market research company called BIGresearch — they are well-respected within the marketing community (I’m in marketing, so that’s why I’m on their mailing list). Their usual area is consumer research, but they occasionally include questions on politics and social issues — here are their current numbers:
McCain 36.8%
Obama 37.8%
Undecided 20.7%
Other 4.7%
Source: BIGresearch, July 08 CIA (N=8361)
They use online surveys, so that is something to watch out for.
The other thing of interest is that they do questioning to determine if people are merely passive users of a product of “promoters” of it. They applied this technique to McCain-Obama, with the following results.
(My apologies if this doesn’t format well, but I’m going to cut and paste their results and description of methodology):
–
Obama Has Slight Lead in Popularity but Losing Promoters
In the race for the White House, Barack Obama and John McCain are just about even, according to BIGresearch’s July Consumer Intentions & Actions (CIA) survey of over 8,000 people. The candidates can use all the help they can get to make the move to Pennsylvania Avenue and it appears that a greater percentage of Republicans are willing to promote McCain than Democrats are Obama.
By using the Net Promoter® Score* (NPS), respondents were asked to rate, on a scale from 0 (Not at all likely) to 10 (Extremely likely), the probability they would recommend a candidate to a friend or coworker. 10 and 9 responses indicate Promoters, 8 and 7 responses are Passives and 0 through 6 are Detractors. NPS is calculated by subtracting the percentage of Detractors from the percentage of Promoters.
Even though they have a long way to go, McCain is picking up promoters and Obama is generally losing promoters. Here is a comparison of how each of the presidential candidates rank compared to the last three months according to their NPS among all consumers and by political party.
Obama McCain
April May June July April May June July
All -48.8% -51.3% -42.9% -44.6% -56.0% -58.9% -53.0% -47.6%
Democrats -13.4% -17.3% +1.6% +3.0 -82.2% -86.4% -83.0% -82.7%
Republicans -84.0% -85.0% -84.7% -87.1% -9.1% -10.0% -2.1% +11.4%
Independents-51.9% -57.0% -50.6% -53.4% -65.5% -69.9% -63.3% -58.9%
Source: BIGresearch, April 08 CIA (N=8180), May 08 CIA (N=8347), June 08 CIA (N=8351) & July 08 CIA (N=8361)
*Net Promoter, NPS and Net Promoter Score are trademarks of Satmetrix Systems, Inc., Bain & Company, and Fred Reichheld
McCain’s score within his own party has increased thirteen and a half points to a double digit number (+11.4% v. -2.1% in June), indicating Republicans are getting the word out about their candidate. Obama’s score has increased only slightly within his party at about a point and a half (+3% v. +1.6% in June), demonstrating a need to ramp up grassroots efforts.
McCain has also gained some momentum among Independents; however, Obama’s score still remains higher.
#8 That Indy support for both Huck and Romney surprises me a bit, but it’s good news if true. As for Powell being added to an Obama ticket. . .never gonna happen. Obama can’t pick a VP who’s infinitely more qualified than he is, especially one who highlights all of Obama’s own vulnerabilities as much as he does.
#10 A.Jake
I think you are right. I always felt that if America were going to elect its first black president, it would be a Republican, namely Powell.
It would have been Powell if he had run in 96, or if Bush had been smart and made him VP in 1992. Powell was Obama ebfore there was an Obama, and Obama with actual achievements and credentials. He would have spared us the Clintons, Lewinsky, Impeachment, etc…
Probably spared us Bush, too, fwiw.
I often wonder how things would have been different if Powell had run in 1996. One of the great “what if’s” in american politics.
Anyone hear anything about the Dems repealing the ethics rules that they passed (with great fanfare) on the first day they took control of Congress? I heard they repealed the rules in the wee hours of Thursday night/Friday morning. Is this true? I don’t know where to look up Congressional votes.
How do the pollsters decide how they weight party registration and certainty to vote advantages?
Over here in the UK the most accurate polling firms (the most accurate recently has been an internet polling firm BTW, maybe some food for thought) weight on past vote (ie. asking how the respondent voted at the last election) and certainty to vote on a scale from 1-10 (some pollsters only count people who say 10 ie. certain to vote).
How much difference is there between likely voters and registered voters only?
July 18th, 2008 at 9:14 pm
23% undecided! Wow! I am not sure what to say?
July 18th, 2008 at 9:26 pm
I don’t find the idea that a quarter of the electorate is undecided in July to be at all surprising.
I question the degree to which pollsters push for an answer on the polls that show single-digit undecideds — that many people have not made up their minds.
July 18th, 2008 at 9:53 pm
BobH, I agree many people have not made their minds up yet, but historically (at least the last 20 years), this number is high.
July 18th, 2008 at 9:55 pm
The 854 sample is kinda anemic methinks.
July 18th, 2008 at 10:34 pm
Bob:
I agree that the undecided number is almost always much lower — I just think polling companies are likely pushing too hard to get an answer. There has been another poll or two this year that I’ve seen with similarly high undecideds — it may have been previous IBD polls, so maybe they are using a different technique.
July 18th, 2008 at 10:45 pm
The subject of high undecideds reminds me of something I meant to post yesterday.
I get newsletters from a market research company called BIGresearch — they are well-respected within the marketing community (I’m in marketing, so that’s why I’m on their mailing list). Their usual area is consumer research, but they occasionally include questions on politics and social issues — here are their current numbers:
McCain 36.8%
Obama 37.8%
Undecided 20.7%
Other 4.7%
Source: BIGresearch, July 08 CIA (N=8361)
They use online surveys, so that is something to watch out for.
The other thing of interest is that they do questioning to determine if people are merely passive users of a product of “promoters” of it. They applied this technique to McCain-Obama, with the following results.
(My apologies if this doesn’t format well, but I’m going to cut and paste their results and description of methodology):
–
Obama Has Slight Lead in Popularity but Losing Promoters
In the race for the White House, Barack Obama and John McCain are just about even, according to BIGresearch’s July Consumer Intentions & Actions (CIA) survey of over 8,000 people. The candidates can use all the help they can get to make the move to Pennsylvania Avenue and it appears that a greater percentage of Republicans are willing to promote McCain than Democrats are Obama.
By using the Net Promoter® Score* (NPS), respondents were asked to rate, on a scale from 0 (Not at all likely) to 10 (Extremely likely), the probability they would recommend a candidate to a friend or coworker. 10 and 9 responses indicate Promoters, 8 and 7 responses are Passives and 0 through 6 are Detractors. NPS is calculated by subtracting the percentage of Detractors from the percentage of Promoters.
Even though they have a long way to go, McCain is picking up promoters and Obama is generally losing promoters. Here is a comparison of how each of the presidential candidates rank compared to the last three months according to their NPS among all consumers and by political party.
Obama McCain
April May June July April May June July
All -48.8% -51.3% -42.9% -44.6% -56.0% -58.9% -53.0% -47.6%
Democrats -13.4% -17.3% +1.6% +3.0 -82.2% -86.4% -83.0% -82.7%
Republicans -84.0% -85.0% -84.7% -87.1% -9.1% -10.0% -2.1% +11.4%
Independents-51.9% -57.0% -50.6% -53.4% -65.5% -69.9% -63.3% -58.9%
Source: BIGresearch, April 08 CIA (N=8180), May 08 CIA (N=8347), June 08 CIA (N=8351) & July 08 CIA (N=8361)
*Net Promoter, NPS and Net Promoter Score are trademarks of Satmetrix Systems, Inc., Bain & Company, and Fred Reichheld
McCain’s score within his own party has increased thirteen and a half points to a double digit number (+11.4% v. -2.1% in June), indicating Republicans are getting the word out about their candidate. Obama’s score has increased only slightly within his party at about a point and a half (+3% v. +1.6% in June), demonstrating a need to ramp up grassroots efforts.
McCain has also gained some momentum among Independents; however, Obama’s score still remains higher.
July 18th, 2008 at 10:47 pm
Geez — what a mess. My apologies. I’ll try to figure out a way to post something readable tomorrow.
July 18th, 2008 at 11:43 pm
Could we make this link a front page item?
New Zogby polls shows impact of several Democrat and several Republican VP being added to the ticket.
http://vote08.freedomblogging.com/2008/07/18/zogby-powell-would-boost-obamas-chances-huck-mitt-would-help-mccain/
July 19th, 2008 at 12:27 am
Boston Globe article suggests Romney may be the one. . .
http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2008/07/mccain_praises_1.html
July 19th, 2008 at 12:32 am
#8 That Indy support for both Huck and Romney surprises me a bit, but it’s good news if true. As for Powell being added to an Obama ticket. . .never gonna happen. Obama can’t pick a VP who’s infinitely more qualified than he is, especially one who highlights all of Obama’s own vulnerabilities as much as he does.
July 19th, 2008 at 12:43 am
#10 A.Jake
I think you are right. I always felt that if America were going to elect its first black president, it would be a Republican, namely Powell.
July 19th, 2008 at 12:44 am
Ill, Was it an online poll?
July 19th, 2008 at 1:12 am
13,
It would have been Powell if he had run in 96, or if Bush had been smart and made him VP in 1992. Powell was Obama ebfore there was an Obama, and Obama with actual achievements and credentials. He would have spared us the Clintons, Lewinsky, Impeachment, etc…
Probably spared us Bush, too, fwiw.
I often wonder how things would have been different if Powell had run in 1996. One of the great “what if’s” in american politics.
July 19th, 2008 at 2:13 am
Anyone hear anything about the Dems repealing the ethics rules that they passed (with great fanfare) on the first day they took control of Congress? I heard they repealed the rules in the wee hours of Thursday night/Friday morning. Is this true? I don’t know where to look up Congressional votes.
July 19th, 2008 at 5:45 am
No, Kris, it was a telephone poll. It tells you that in the article.
July 19th, 2008 at 5:59 am
How do the pollsters decide how they weight party registration and certainty to vote advantages?
Over here in the UK the most accurate polling firms (the most accurate recently has been an internet polling firm BTW, maybe some food for thought) weight on past vote (ie. asking how the respondent voted at the last election) and certainty to vote on a scale from 1-10 (some pollsters only count people who say 10 ie. certain to vote).
How much difference is there between likely voters and registered voters only?